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Long Allison TransmissionAllison Transmission (ALSN) is one of the worlds largest transmission manufacturers. The company has recently developed a new transmission model that helps to improve fuel economy. The company is set to release its 3Q earnings Monday, Oct. 30 with a conference call on Tuesday, Oct. 31. US car production is coming off of its low back in 2009 and has increased to 3.02 million units in August from 2.62 million units in July. Still 3 million units below average but we are seeing an increase. Low interest rates are still making auto loans affordable. However, New passenger car registrations are down to 501.98 thousand from 502.59. This could mean that fewer are actually purchasing cars but the auto industry is expecting higher demand. The market is trending strong with good breadth, 88 percent of stocks are making new highs. The outlook for the auto industry looks good. If ALSN releases better than expected earnings, expect to see a move up. The stock currently trades at 36.94, down 8% from its 52-week high. We saw a recent bounce off of the $36 support line. RSI is in a bearish range and the current move is supported by average volume. I'm long in anticipation of a good earnings release and a good Q4 period.
NYSE:ALSNLong
by Brandon50115
GM's post hurricaine rally could be coming to a haultWhen cars and homes were destroyed, those industries got a boost. LPX makes wood-panel sidings for homes and saw a 15% increase. Auto makers like GM saw a large increase as well this past month. Is it coming to an end for GM? Can it go higher? Is a good entry in sight? I believe so. The trend angle increased, representing strength, and the price action in terms of ATR increased as well through the uptrend. However, the break through the 41.20 level on news of it's September increase was seen on lower volume than the previous day and ultimately closed below that level. For me, I take this as a good time to sit on the sidelines and wait to see what happens. If it falls, then I will look for a good entry. Fundamentally, I see this rising over the next quarter.
NYSE:GM
by Brandon50115
Seven Percent Plus Drop In Cards For Ford?Ford Motor Company has climbed quickly in the previous month. Overall auto sales are in rough shape and could be this way for a while. According to the technical indicators and the historics, the stock has a good chance of coming back down to Earth which is laid out here. Ford loves to flirt around the 11 mark. Will it head back to it once more? When we look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 76. RSI tends to determine trends, momentum, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought meaning the stock could drop in the near term. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2375 and the negative is 0.7026. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action has flattened out. I could not locate similar consolidation in this stock for such a prolonged period of time. While this activity is a bit of a wildcard, the positive vortex indicator oscillates up and down as time transpires. With it staying high for a while, it is due to head downward, meaning the stock would drop at least a little (1-4%) soon. The stochastic oscillator K value is 92.15 and D value is 92.44. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is certainly in overbought territory The D value has just overtaken the K value at the time of writing; meaning the decline in the stock should begin within the next two trading days. SPECIFIC ANALYSIS I have created an algorithm (called the SAG gauge) which signals when stocks are truly overbought and oversold. The algorithm indicates when a particular stock meets multiple criteria culminating in an oversold or overbought signal. That signal occurred today which is another indicator of downward movement for the stock. Upon back-testing this indicator, it has signaled overbought status 98 times dating back to 1972. The stock drops at least 1% over the following 30 trading days in ninety percent of these occurrences. The stock drops at least 3.75% seventy percent of the time and fifty percent of the time loses 6%. Even though a drop does not always occur, these number combined with the following statistics have instilled confidence that a sizeable drop is coming. The RSI, stochastic, and positive VI have been at their current or higher levels simultaneously only three times in the history of the stock since 1979. Even though the availability of data points is low, the rarity of such a feat is the biggest signal for short-term traders to consider. Over the next 30 days, the stock always drops at least 7.19% from the date all three indicators are at or above the current levels simultaneously. The median drop over this time frame is 10.17%. If we look solely at the overbought RSI reading and its historics, the stock could drop in upwards of 8%. The RSI has been at or above its current level 139 times in its history. Over the course of the following 35 trading days, the stock retreats an average of 10.03% and a median of 8.27%. Between all of the aforementioned historics, we are confident the stock could drop at least 7% over the following 35 trading days. The best indicator is the flattening positive VI value and the simultaneously high levels of all three indicators. The SAG gauge signal and its historic information support a minimum of 3-5% drop in the near-term as well.
NYSE:FShort
by StockSignaler
1
The Big Short | Putting Economic Data to the TestHello Traders, I have been fiddling with the idea of applying the same model used to predict Financial Markets to Economic Data.This is my first attempt at applying the model to such data publicly. Consider this post an experiment. Taking into consideration some fundamentals (and a little bit of rationalizing); Since the auto industry bail outs of 2008-2009 interest rates have been at a record lows(0%). Car sales reacted accordingly making a full recovery into pre 2008 levels. Now that QE and 0% interest is over (interest rates are likely to rise in the next few years), there is a bit of stagnation in the car industry as a whole. Once attractive lease offers and 0% financing is off the table a decline in sales should occur. Overall, when interest rates are high people buy less as a whole. Questionable Lending Practices: The use of Sub Prime loans in the auto industry and selling those loans as bonds has an all too familiar ring to it. Granted, it is not as rampant as it was in the mortgage industry, but the same practices of junk loans being sold as junk bonds is occurring. One does not need to be a prophet to know what the end result of that is. Take a look at this satirical piece by John Oliver for more detail: www.youtube.com Self Driving Cars: It is imminent, self driving cars are the future and can reach the everyday consumer as soon as 2020. www.nissanusa.com Why is this important? The idea of self driving cars also brings up the idea of not having to own a car to get around in one. Cars being able to move around without a driver + (UBER + Car Manufacturer Collaboration) = Less consumers having to own cars to get around in one. www.wired.com The Model: The most important aspect here is the model. Time and time again it has proven to predict and forecast financial markets with pin point precision. Here, the model points to 5.26 as the highest probability target. So...what does this all mean? If the model is successful in predicting the outcome of auto sales, it means that there will be a massive decline in auto sales. It also means that there is a great recession looming over us like a dark cloud. The ideas discussed in this thread are purely conversation topics that help "aid" the rationale behind the targets defined by the model. I do not consider myself an economist, nor do I think I have the full range of ideas listed in this thread. If you feel like you have a different outlook or if I missed something please feel free to discuss it in the comment section(with sources to back up your view). Best, Chartistry
FRED:ALTSALESShort
by GWaves
2
The Non-Profit Car Company - saying "we will turn a profit".I am late in shorting the first turn away from the upper level of resistance. However the price action may continue to drop to the lower range of the upper bear channel, 239 area. I do not prefer the risk to reward at this point in time and am watching for a retest of the 248-254 range to short in the first 5-7 trading days of May. A more aggressive approach may be required if the price breaks due the news this weekend of quality issues and warranty costs climbing. This may require a wider risk to reward ratio due to the possible retracement. Good luck to all!
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by PP-Guy
2
[Tesla] Attractive bet for quarterly announcementPretty attractive bet for quarterly announcement in 3 days if the price isn't pumped beyond US $235 by then. Catalyst: -The upcoming Tesla Model X by early 2015 -More details on the gigafactory battery partnership with Panasonic (Confirmed) >>> Big loss will continue due to the cost of the land and building, Panasonic will cover the cost of the machinery. -QoQ/YoY increase in the sales of Model S -Europe & China expansion plans Bears: -Quarterly loss is still expected, it depends if it able to beat the -0.24 estimate with a lower loss -"Anal"-yst bullcrap on car fire again ------------------------------------- Entry: $230 Stop loss: $221 Take Profit: 255
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by LastBattle
1