$TSLA Support Found at Yearly Anchored VWAPIt appears Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA might have found significant temporary support at the yearly anchored VWAP. I expect a move up to test upper deviation at 226.50, which would be first profit target. I own some Oct 4 240 C which I plan on scaling out of beginning around that level.
Avwap
Using CME Group Event Contracts For FOMC & End of The Month ES1! Looking for additional tools to use in your day trading for event days like FOMC and Month End? Watch Anthony Crudele dive into CME Group's Event Contracts in his latest video. See him analyze the E-mini S&P 500 using AVWAP and Bollinger Bands.
SHORT TERM PUMP?avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??
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avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??avp + avwap + frvp + pivot are all supporting bullish bias.
short term pump incoming??
the real question is what happens to $ETH at ATH?eth is currently holding above the quarter channel with resistance above between 3500-ATH
there is a potential moonshot to 7k and beyond (13k?), if the markets are indeed in the infant stage of a bull run.
for now eth is heading towards the golden pocket of the move down with support from ath avwap
as htf bullish market structure never broke this could mean that the highs are ran, rsi has bounced the mid point and could be cruising towards the cook zone again, its here i will watch to see a divergence form when the 3M OB and yearly level is approached.
upside 3500, 4500/ATH, 7000, 130000
downside 1900, 1200, 800
its quite possible that we put in a long term range drifting between 5k and 1k before we see expansion upwards
nfa, just food for thought on the htf but most of the volume is supporting price.
US500 expecting a bounce? Here are my thoughts.US500 (Daily Chart)
I'm expecting a bounce to ~4260/70 area. Here's why.
Looking at the AVWAP (Blue lines) from the January 2022 highs and October 2022 lows, we were bound to see some level of support here. I've been saying this for some time now that we'll reach at least 4100.
Given the strong confluence of support around this area (the AVWAP and the horizontal level), I'm expecting a bounce from here. The target for the bounce would be somewhere around the 4260/70 area. If you look at the previous rallies in this correction they're both ~4.7% from the lows of the down moves. If we consider this to be the low of the move, ~4.7% lines up with the 4260/70 area along with the white trend line and potentially with the 50EMA as well, by the time price gets there.
What will determine if this rally will stick or not will be the volume behind the moves. If you look at the volume in the previous rallies you can see that the volume was decreasing quite a bit and rose again as the price began to move lower.
If this rally is to be sustained, we're going to need to see volume and broader participation from the market, otherwise, if/when we get to the 4260/70 area we'll see the next leg lower.
Of course, there will be levels of resistance along the way such as the 4170 area and the 4210 area.
As always, be sure to DYDD and be sure to manage your risk.
Crude Oil headed lower or higher from here?This is why I think Oil will head lower.
October 5th and 6th were very big down days that created an imbalance around the 87.1 area.
We saw a break down of the channel and now even after news it only retested the 87.1 area and wasn't able to get above that.
Currently, it's trading just below the broken channel and is struggling to get more traction.
Bear case:
The Bulls aren't able to push the price higher above the 87.1 and we head lower. If that's the case we may see Oil head lower to the low 70's or high 60's area. That'd be roughly the measured objective of the broken channel.
Bull case:
The Bulls push past the 87.1 area and have a decisive move above it.
This would result in a false break down of the channel and would open the possibility of a much stronger move towards the $95 area and potentially higher.
A false break to one side of a pattern like this often cause an aggressive move in the opposite direction.
All that being said, this of course, will affect Energy stocks so be sure to manage your risk and DYDD
SPX - Still within longer term supports Despite a difficult last 2 months when both SPX and NDX have formed a potentially bearish Head and Shoulders formation, both are still holding at their respective necklines so far.
Upon zooming out, we could also see that SPX is still trading within its rising channel that was formed since the start of its bull run from Oct 2022.
what transpired so far was a mean reversion to channel support and towards a rising VWAP anchored at a major pivot point on 13 Mar this year (creating next possible supports for SPX at 4260 - 4275 should its H&S neckline be breached).
Similarly, I am seeing that heavyweights like META, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA are now sitting on (or near) their respective VWAPs anchored from their respective major pivot low during March or April this year.
Might not be time to be longer term bearish yet unless we see a breach of the rising channel.
On the flip side, markets are still fragile and momentum for any rebound is still lacking and it's best to be cautious until we see a clearer direction over the next few days or even a week or 2.
Disclaimer:
TA is about improving our odds of a successful trade (not a guarantee). This is just my own analysis and opinion for discussion and is NOT a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management (ie trailing stop loss and position sizing) is (probably the most) important!
Take care and Good Luck!
$US500 SP500 forecast.Here's what I'm looking at.
I still think $4100 is on the table for a bottom. Reason being, there's multiple levels of confluence there.
1) If you take the AVWAP from the Jan 2022 highs, it comes to around $4100
2) It's a horizontal level
3) It's roughly the measured objective of the Head and Shoulders break down
4) It's also coming in around the 0.618 fib level.
Of course there will be levels of support along the way, one being the current $4260 area.
This $4260 area is also a confluence of support with
1) It's a horizontal level on the weekly
2) The 200EMA on the Daily chart
3) The AVWAP from the recent March 2023 lows.
Either we see a bounce and recovery from here ($4260 area) or if we break lower we'll see 4100.
For now, I still think $4100 may be the low for this correction.
Short Trade = Daily Anti Cypher + Bearish Maxlev PatternShort Trade = Daily Anti Cypher + Bearish Maxlev Pattern
Price seems to be in a downtrend, creating lower low market structures.
Confluences:
1. Price below FRVP POC
2. Price below AVWAP bands
3. Large Bearish Harmonic Pattern
4. Bearish Maxlev Pattern
Target:
1. Liquidity Hunt from Maxlev Pattern
2. FVG
Watch out for the AVWAP from the recent highs!With solid fundamentals backing the current move in GLAS, this could just be the early phase of the uptrend. The AVWAP from the current highs is around Rs 21.10 - Buyers need to keep an eye on this level. Closing above this on high volume would likely put the buyers back in control and initiate a strong upside move.
Right now, the stock is trading above a rising 50 and 200 day MA meaning that both the medium and long term trend is very much favoring the buyers.
S&P 500 - what's your take?What's happening?
1. -363.3K CFTC S&P 500 spec. net positions(highest in years, on October 2008 it was -365,697)
2. VIX 15.77 (52-week low)
3. DXY 101.672 (near 52week-low)
4. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M)-1.66 (lowest ever)
5. AAII sentiment
4/26/2023
Bullish 24.1%
Neutral 37.4%
Bearish 38.5%
6. BTC = +76% YTD
7. SPX above all relevant moving averages and above AVWAP from all time high
8. Short term traders waiting for setups and market breadth improvement
Until the end of the year S&P500 will end up higher, lower, about the same?
Higher
Lower
Sideways
Feel free to add or correct data in favor of any outcome. Happy hunting.
A critical test for the markets is coming up A critical test for the market is coming up -
SP500 futures looks ready to test the Anchored VWAP confluence area
This area is the intersection of Anchored VWAP from All time high and breakout of pre-covid high.
How the market behaves once this breakout is tested is critical for the current upswing
SPY - can this rally extend to the upside? As always, everything is possible. Just some important levels on chart for you to have in mind.
Short term and medium term uptrend, long term downtrend.
If we break the trendline I believe this rally could catch some further steam.
Risk here comes from trendline and 200 MA resistance. If we secure price above VCOP, this could be low risk trade to the upside with PT at - 410, 413, 430+, 437.
We also have price and MACD divergence.
Grey line is AVWAP from ATH and October low. Volume profile is also drawn on this chart.
$RBLX - Continuation of Stage 4?Dear all,
In a weak market, I look for stage 4 breakouts and continuation pattersn (based on the famous Stan Weinstein).
I try to look for bear flags that fall together with downsloping 50 day sma (or at least very close, a few %s).
Roblox had a gap down 15dec on big volume, price is now trying to fill the gap.
While it is trying to fill the gap it is forming a potential bearish flag.
If the gap is filled, price would coincide with the decling 50dma, AVWAP from recent high and the downtrending resistance line (since august).
When this point is reached (and only when), and price is resisted at the 50dma or breaks the flag, this could be a good entry for buyings some puts (3 months out).
Possible stoploss could be the long term downtrending resistance line or 50dma.
Things to consider for a stage 4:
- weak overall market :check
- declining 30 week Ma :check
- declining 10 week Ma :check
- 10 w underneath 30w :check
- Loss of trendline :TBA
Extra reasons for stage 4 decline:
- Big volume on down days
- Gap downs
- Resistance of AVWAP of important dates
CCJ - possible stage 4 incomingDear all,
Another name that is probably setting up for stage 4 in the energy sector, this time a uranium name: $CCJ.
After consolidating a stage 3 for almost a year and forming, kind of a sloping head and shoulder pattern and loss of the longer term trendline this week, it is time for a stage 4 decline.
Things to consider for a stage 4:
- declining 30 week Ma :check
- declining 10 week Ma :check
- 10 w underneath 30w :check
- Loss of trendline :check
Extra reasons for stage 4 decline:
- Big volume on down days :check
- Gap downs
- Resistance of AVWAP of important dates (big volume days 1 feb 21, last high and low)
The price is now trying to reach back the broken trendline, but is unable to break through. The trendline is now also confluencing with an AVWAP. Next week the 10w sma is at the same spot and also the downtrending trendline from last high. This will be a very tough spot to break, so a high probability the price will move downwards.
I entered last week with a few puts, three months out. Stop loss i would suggest is the break of before mentioned resistances ca. 23-23,5
Good luck and have a good year!
Circular Decomposition of Harmonic Pattern & 3:1 Long of CD LegThe long position in XRP is merely incidental. The emphasis is on using clean line work to discover areas where price is more likely to reverse.
In this example, which includes a bearish harmonic pattern , decreasing volatility is visible to the naked eye, even without the compression of the MA ribbon or the decreasing ATR.
Some unusual arrangement of pitchforks suggests that a lower time frame trend is breaking out and may retest diagonal support. If this occurs, a long entry presents itself, which would complete the CD Leg of the pattern and set up a Short at the D point.
Trading the CD Leg is NOT recommended because it often fails the test that comes at this level; the pattern is NOT considered confirmed until reaching point D. The incidental long shown here AWAITS the resolution of the test, as suggested by the S-Curve.
Fibonacci ratios are used not only to establish a potential action space for longer range forecasts but also to measure a profit target at point D, on the 1h chart. Although less obvious, but they are used also to estimate Trend Exhaustion (diagonals) and, hence, time.
In addition to more common elements of a Volume Spread Analysis, a series of overlapping VWAPs interacts with the action space implied by the Fibonacci ratios to reveal what might be described as the "grain" in the price history. Of especial importance is how certain VWAPs anchored to real-world events (as opposed to swing highs and lows, or opening bells) predict otherwise invisible volatility when either price or other VWAPs cross them.