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Weekend Update: Price still unable to provide clear directionLet me be clear. Sometimes we feel very confident about the market pattern we're trading and on other occasions we don't. For me, this would be the latter. That's why I primarily sell OTM futures options. Today, we didn't get any definitive clues. I'm sure this choppy action is like death by a thousand cuts for traders on either side of the market. But I have to stand pat in the notion that if this was the pattern set up where the market was going to rally to 4300-4500 area, this would be a C-wave. This would also be mature enough for us to see impulsive action higher. We do not have any impulsivity whatsoever. I believe the market is trying to tell us something. Unfortunately when in the midst of both B-waves and 4th waves, a complex pattern will not reveal what it was until it's in the rearview mirror. I will acknowledge it's both difficult and frustrating to try to trade for profit in this environment. I am still under the impression we are in an ED for our b of B. Whether that ED is limited to the end of this pattern or the entirety of this pattern (Red Trendlines is ED at the end of this pattern, where as Black trendlines represent the entirety of the pattern) I believe where in a diagonal. Nonetheless, I have Fibonacci Confluence at the 4018 area. Also based on the various micro pattern extensions I have located a PRICE PIVOT target box. It is here where price will have to decide. Break above the black pivot to the upside and we should see 4300, come into and retrace and break below the red pivot and we should see 3875-3840. Now some could argue this diagonal is a leading diagonal. Ok, I won't argue too much against that, but my point is whether leading or ending, a retrace of a portion, or the whole pattern, is warranted. However, the pivot areas will answer that for us. So I'm looking for a retrace to get a sense of what we're dealing with. In the meantime I'll be patient. I will advise traders do the same. Taking outright longs or shorts in such choppy action could cause losses, so please know your stops. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
At the level of interest - ES SPX AAPL USOIL et al....SPX is in the area where I think it may reverse although higher highs to end the day is certainly possible. It has been a hard slog for bears and according to what I'm seeing on the put/call charts, the bets are mostly bullish. This makes sense in terms of price action but under the hood there are some issues. There are technical reasons why I'm still bearish here, and basically that's what I talk about in the video. I know some will probably criticize this as being "too bearish" and that's fair. However, I don't think I'm imagining what I'm seeing here. The RSI has been very clear when the selloffs looked too weak and I have pointed that out when I saw it. The RSI in particular is now clearly flashing a longer term warning here, which I try to explain. Good luck and have a great weekend!
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Short
by the_sunship
1
Moring Update: Are we in an ending diagonal?Last night I had a social event to attend. A lot of market talk with different opinions...some very dire, some very rosy. I'm thinking to myself the market sure has people guessing right now. I had some DM's asking about being in other patterns that suggest we're moving higher...no doubt because they've been exposed to other analysis. Me on the other hand, I don't follow anyone. I simply looks at the charts. This pattern looks like an ending diagonal, it fits with the rules of an ending diagonal, but as I have said 100 times prior...it's the way this pattern started that has me thinking we're something complex and it's giving many people fits. If this is not an ending as I outline above then price should be skyrocketing higher. The market has had a could opportunities to do so and has failed to push impulsively higher. Again, I do not want to get married to analysis if price proves me wrong, and I certainly do not want to loose hard earned profits...but price has a lot to prove. Above 4090 and I'm starting to think this is something else. But many elliottitions look at the longer duration charts. I happen to believe (as Elliott said) that each smaller time frame pattern is a fractal of the larger pattern. They're Self-Similar. Here's a 1 minute chart below. I don't label the smaller time fractals but the overlap makes it hard for me to think we're breaking out. This is how we've traded since December. The overlap even shows on the smallest of timeframes. Nonetheless, let's see if price can break above 4090 today to get me off this ending diagonal and get some clues as to what we're in. In the absence of that, I'm expecting in the next several days to week, for price to be heading back down into the 3800's. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
9
#ES_F Thursday 1.26.23 Overview Review: Last night Globex opened and drove under 4030-25 trapping supply over which started our move overnight move. Yesterday we had signs that inventory is still low and someone is buying, Globex was used to drop the bid under Previous day low which helped get us under 94-89 and our T2 Low Support which made more people sell out into the buying under 3976-71. Once selling has stopped the inventory was short and our supply was back over 4030-25, today showed us that there is still size covering and wanting that supply. 4076-71 was look below and fail, once we got back over T2 Low and 3994-89 position was below us. Overview: Interested to see what we will do in Globex tonight, we still have supply that is coming out from above this 4042 area and now our buyers are under 4025 and under 4012-08. If we break under 4030-25 there might be a chance to visit 4012-08 or close to it, if we wont see a full test or break under it that will show strength going into RTH but it might be a tricky day as we might be trying to get as many sellers shaken out before making another run at bigger Supply area. as long as we are holding over 4000-4012 area there is a good chance to make another attempt higher to 4046-42 // 4061-56 which would be our T2 High and maybe get close to 4084-77. Ideally we don't go there tonight first but instead come down lower and consolidate. If we do get over 4061 at whatever point that is not the best area to add because that is an area of bigger supply and things can come to an end quick. Area to be careful at. If we do break under 4012-08 - 4000 those will be first red flags and break and hold under 95-89 would be a big warning might change things to the downside pretty quick. Levels to Watch: 3994-89 // 4012-08 // 4035-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 408477
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trade Alert: Sell -25 Feb 2023 EOM 4300 calls at $7Raised $8,679 in Premium for next months P&L. Here's what changed for me today. Yesterday I said if price breached 4055 I need to see it take out the red trend line. I've been seeing the beginnings of an ending diagonal for a while. The overlap in the beginning when I said these patterns are not going to put us in jeopardy of price getting away from us. Nonetheless price has rallied. I was counting this as a 1-2, i-ii this morning. Wave iii of 3 is the strongest portion of a move. THIS MARKET SHOULD BE MOVING HIGHER AGGRESSIVELY...It's not. It's now overlapping again where it should be testing 4080-4090 and maybe even tagging 4100. Another thing weighing on my mind is so many charts I track, crypto included, are coming into full patterns off their lows needing a retrace. Sorry to switch gears so fast, but this chart should be showing signs of impulsivity today...and it's not. Therefore, I have opened up an OTM money short call position mainly to hedge what I've been waiting for and that is a couple hundred point decline to open a short put position in size. If at anytime price breaks above the ENDING DIAGONAL TRENDLINES I'LL RE-EVALUATE by taking an outright long position. This is a risky trade. I am not advocating shorting the market unless price continues to overlap as outlined above. Ending Diagonals will retrace to their origins. Therefore if confirmed we should decline in purple to 3840-3875 area minimum...and that could just be the "a" wave (in Black). PS: This post will serve as my evening update as I have plans this evening. I'll answer DMs and Comments to this post. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
8
Morning Update: Benefit of the Doubt to BLACKI've discussed in the past about technicians and elliotitions getting married to analysis. This is easy to do even for the most experienced analysts. Just the psychology of bottoming and topping turning points Elliott mused that at turning points, traders can't let go of their attachments to the previous trend and before they realize that trend ended, the new trend is well on it's way. Price has been stubborn to retrace any of it's hard fought gains since the October bottom. Therefore I have to give my black count the benefit of the doubt. In the black count we may move as high as 4080-4090 for i of 3. Purple & Green have little room if any to rally before we retrace hard...but what is actionable trading information is in either case we should expect a retrace of some proportion. Purple and Green counts require a C wave to complete these patterns. C wave can be swift so we look to the structure to determine what count we're in. Purple can complete anywhere in the gray target box...but below 3840 which would be a flat, I have to adopt Green as my primary. Green supposes we're headed to mid 3700 to high 3600's. Now that I have given you the parameters, and I've stated I am giving the black count the benefit of the doubt...we watch to see what unfolds over the course of the next week. If we get up into the 4080-4090 area I will reopen a Jan EOM 4125-4150 short call position. If we immediately retrace (as in purple/green), I plan to do nothing until I can ascertain a bottoming pattern. I do not believe that will occur in the next couple days. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
Morning Update: YOU ARE HEREAs we trade the day to day...the micro machinations of the SPX and ES Futures, I want to put into context where we are within the overall bigger picture. Having completed our Super Cycle wave (III) and begun to retrace in our SC wave (IV) ...you can barely even see the current decline from the high of January 2022. Within this Super Cycle wave (IV), we are simply working on completing our b of larger a to come sometime latter 2023-2024. That's right, we haven't even completed a cycle A wave yet. The purple box shows our alternation with Super Cycle Wave (II) which was very deep and quick. That purple box would represent the current magnitude of the SC wave (II) juxtaposed over current prices. Our wave (IV) will alternate and be long ( 2 Decades to complete ) and shallow ( completing at the 2.382% to as low as the 2.0% Fib Support Area ). Many of you will disagree with this chart. I understand the skepticism. However, cycles being what they are, this chart stands a high probability of becoming a reality... whether we like it or not . SO, as we carve out our profits day to day....remember in the grand scheme of things.... .... WHERE YOU ARE ON THE LONG TERM CHART! Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
12
Evening Update: Today I'm grateful I have Trading RulesThis morning as we were headed towards the lows I decided to close all my short call positions and go flat. Am I bullish? No Am I bearish? No. The uncertainty, with so many counts on the chart, some of which we were coming into the target box, caused me to go flat. I share this with you because as you analyze markets, I want you to trust your intuition. Most of all, when you can look as a chart and say, I'm unclear on the direction....get flat. I'm still flat as of writing this update. I mentioned in an update earlier that when price breaches 4055, we're going to 4300. I want to add 1 small caveat. The big red trendline. I want to see price breach 4055 and the red line. Let me explain, when I get into the 3 min fractals this looks like an ABC a-wave off the lows of today. I know it looks impulsive but with the price action I have now it looks like a 5, 3, 5 right into the 1.0. Therefore I'm still torn between purple and black. #PRICEPROVEIT Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
#ES_F Wednesday 01.25.23 Overview Review: Didn't have enough gas today to get to our supply area, Globex spent most of the night between 4042-430 building up supply, break of that trapped supply from yesterday and overnight above it, that was our first red flag to be cautious today as if we were to continue strong we would have held that area in Globex. Area mentioned for possible support was 4012-08 which we could see pre market that we were holding above, when opened we did failure to break the first sign that level is holding then look below and come back in was the main trade for the day which got us back to overnight supply where we found more sellers and went sideways again over VWAP selling over 4030. Great day, support provided great trades, second half of the day was the hardest today. Overview: We had an interesting open today, we closed RTH with a stop run over 4046-42 and over 5 hours of selling over Vwap. Opened and drove under that consolidation area trapping the longs making it our supply area going forward. This can be a good chance to see if we have enough supply to break todays low and get more people to sell some, under Previous Low we have our next Potential Support at 3995-89 with has T2 low and position below it, if we have enough selling we can see that area tested but overall we are inside T2 range, judging from todays action we still have shorts trying to cover so I wont be surprised if we still do a test of Monday high and area above it. We have to see what Globex does, for the upside to happen we will have to look strong below 4012-08 and 3094 if we get under them and get back over 4030-25 for final confirmation. If we get below 3994-89 and hold under it that changes things, until then we can still get good amount of short covering and a run into a supply zone, longer we hold over this area and over the trendline more customers we can have. Levels to Watch: 3995-89 // 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 Not looking to hold too much above last night unless showing good strength because its bigger supply area. If selling is strong but not strong enough to get under T2 Low and not enough buying to get over and hold 4030 Then potential for inside day between 4030-4000
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
SPX Model Trading Plans for WED. 01/25Roller Coaster Ride - Day 2 Our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 01/24, stated: "With yesterday's daily close above 3985, our models have flipped to a bullish bias and will remain bullish while the index is above 4000. Nevertheless, models indicate a rather choppy market while the index is below 4015". As hypothesized, the market rolled over overnight and is now on the downward move. Our positional models have negated the bullish bias overnight and are currently in a neutral bias. Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going short on the close if the daily close is below 3975 and above 3960, with a 35 point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Trading Plans for WED. 01/25: Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4002, 3988, 3973, 3958, or 3937 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3984, 3968, 3955, or 3931 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate long exits on a cross below 3995, and no explicit short exits for today. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46 am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx #spx500 #spy #sp500 #esmini #indextrading #daytrading #models #tradingplans #outlook #economy #bear #yields #fomc #fed #newhigh #stocks #futures #inflation #powell #interestrates #earnings #earningsseason #chinareopen
SP:SPX
by TradersAICorp
Trade Alert: I prefer to be flatIn an abundance of caution and since I have a bottoming count in the black wave 2, I've decided to take my profits off the table. Therefore I have closed my Jan EOM 4100 Calls in which I kept over 80% of the original premium raised and my newly opened 4180 Feb EOM calls in which I kept 35% of the original premium raise for a total amount of $15,231 in premium income for January. I want to be clear....this is not to say I'm bullish. This is a risk management decision for me. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
Morning Update: Black wave 2 3950-3960We're retracing off of yesterday's close. Since all of my counts require a retrace it will interesting to see which ones are invalidated. I stated a couple weeks back that the bottom we strike here within the this pattern weather it's a wave 2 of c or b-wave, is a bottom to buy for a nice rally to 4300-4500. From time to time I do this so I thought it may be a time to check under the hood of the SPX. I do not track stocks so I have no long-term EW counts in place....so the below charts are very rudimentary. Looking at Microsoft, I could debate Microsoft the stock has a 5-wave move up off the low, and a 3-wave move down for a wave 2. This is what you want to see in a bottom. However, price last night hit the .764 retracement post earnings, and but until breach the wave 1 high of approximately $263 we simple have no conclusive clue that the bottom in November of $213 is the bottom. Additionally, breaching the 263 high is just a first clue. So, MSFT has a lot of work to do. I would say the jury is out on MSFT striking a bottom. Looking at Amazon, Unlike MSFT, Amazon has positive divergence into its last low, but the stock has not completed 5-up off the bottom. Unlike MSFT that has a full 1-2 in place. Maybe AMZN will pop after its earnings, but it still doesn’t explain why it’s so far behind in the pattern visive MSFT. MSFT and AMZN are the largest components of the SPX, but these 2 stocks do not do the entirety of the SPX justice. Nonetheless, in looking at the largest 8% of the SPX components...if I was to sum up the SPX/ES charts...it’s only slightly negative. Yes, there are some constructive aspects of the above patterns...but nothing conclusive. Does it signal a constructive rally of some magnitude...You’ll get no argue from me on that conclusion. If we retrace into the 3950-3960 area today, it's important to note that the next time price breach 4055...we're headed to 4300. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Evening Update: Markets Stay within a Range TodayNot much to say this evening as we got no clues today. The markets stayed in a range, with no breakouts or breakdowns. The more consolidating we do, the odds start to skew towards the black count unless we get going to the downside soon. Black and purple suggest any declines will be contained above 3900. The green count, which is what the cash market is signaling, supposes we're about to decline into the 3700's. First and foremost we need to breach today's low of 4005. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
8
#ES_F Overview for 1.24.23 Review: Short covering continued today, during Globex we held above 3976-71 Support, consolidated under VWAP before then open and once we took the open out off we went, we flushed most of the supply out of this area last Wednesday so this move over 4030 was much easier without much consolidation needed on the way up. We saw our first decent correction and need to consolidate to go higher at 4046-42 which was first resistance target. We were able to take it out and hit next level at 4061-56 where we found more supply which gave a nice correction to VWAP, the higher it gets the more supply there will be so have to be careful at these areas as we might have found our range for distribution. Overview: We have possibly found our distribution range between 4077-4030, have to see how we hold Globex but there is a good possibility to see a test of today's high at some point, will it hold or not is for us to find out. Ideally we hold 4030-25 support but very likely we could see some sort of flush under it before, as long as we hold over 4012-08 the upside has a chance of playing out. If we take a dip under 4030-25 and can consolidate under without breaking it will be a good information, unless we make some move over it tonight. Levels to Watch: 4012-08 // 4030-25 // 4046-42 // 4061-56 // 84-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
4
Morning Update: You’ve Got My Attention If you’ve traded the ES and the indices as a whole for any length of time you’ve heard the phrases “ The Markets is Climbing a Wall of Worry ”, or “ The Most Hated Rally ”. This signifies traders are not positioned to take advantage of a rally. Clearly sentiment was more negative than the market had intentions. I have been on the side of expecting lower prices. I’m a huge fan of the rally but only after prices retreated into the 3800’s first . However, I do not want to be a hater of a rally that leaves me behind, or worst, catches me short. Therefore, I wanted to provide my playbook as to not be caught off guard. All of my counts require some downside retrace of small to large magnitude. If price decides to trade above yesterday’s high...I may close all short calls. My January calls are almost worthless, but the position I opened yesterday will cause me concern because that doesn’t expire till end of February. In the cash market, this looks much cleaner. I would expect price to get a deep retrace or reconcile as an ABC zig zag down in the 3700’s. The ES always runs the risk of containing noise due to the lower liquidity of the overnights. Sometimes it will give you signals as to how the cash market will react, sometimes it confuses. I’m undecided as to whether it’s confusing noise, or it’s signaling to me the market intends to go higher and not retrace like my analysis shows. If ES trades above yesterday’s high. I may close out all short call positions. We have already extended to the 3.618% Fib Area...and I’m not going to give upside price advances much room before I pull the plug on shorting. Keep in mind, these are not outright short positions in the ES. If you’re outright short the ES right now, you’re giving yourself NO ROOM FOR ERROR. Therefore, have stops in place. I’ll be frank...if the market continues to move higher from here...I’ll hate the rally. Yes, I’ll be one of those traders. But will I allow it to cause losses....NOT ON YOUR LIFE. Suffice to say, the bulls have my attention now. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11