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Using Fibonacci Price Theory To PROTECT Your TradesProtecting Your Trades With Fibonacci Price Theory. Learn to understand the BELTLINE range (50%) and why it is so important for structuring your trades for profit. Not all trades will be successful - plan for FAILURE. Planning for FAILURE = Long-Term SUCCESS. Follow my research. The rabbit-hole of knowledge I've amassed over the past 25+ years is deep. I could go on and on about different strategies, theories, concepts, and indicators. What I've learned is... KISS - Keep It Simple Stupid! _ The IDIOT SYSTEM is often the best for new traders. _ Use Multi-timeframes to confirm price trend/direction. _ Use PRICE STRUCTURE as the core of all of your research. Hope these help everyone out. Pay Attention.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
Special Update: This is an UGLY rally, But I'm done FightingThere is so much I don't like about this rally (I have addressed this a lot in the past) but price is the ultimate arbiter. So, it is not my nature to be closed minded. Am I ready to go long? No...but the market doesn't care about my readiness. Let's recap my trading: 1. I am short -25 4300 calls at $7 that expire End of February. I raised $8,679 in premium. Today those calls appreciated to as high as $16.50 so my trade drawdown was a staggering 120%. Currently the price to buy back is $12.50 which would cost me $15,554.50 so almost double what I raised. Now, in truth, those options have NO intrinsic value. Their only value is those options have 27 days of life...but they're worthless below 4300. I made a hedge trade that profited $7350 so account wise I'm not in a bad situation at all. This strategy is my edge. I spend a lot of time analyzing charts but my trade strategy is encapsulated by planning on being wrong and profiting. Hopefully that makes sense. I hope to educate on this strategy as I think it's the only way to trade as a business. Lets recap my analysis: I believe I have misjudged this rally off the 3502 low. This has moved higher much faster than I anticipated and in the interim, (even though I knew price would come into the 4300-4500 area)...I didn't anticipate for it happen so fast. But I have given price every opportunity to retrace into the areas I have been anticipating 3850-3700 and that hasn't happened. Therefore I have look at this with fresh eyes and come up with a rational means of profiting from the price action. So let's discuss the details. 1. The upside officially is not confirmed until price breaches 4180 which hasn't happened. However, we're above ALL Fib retracement levels. Price is not screaming at us, but it's definitely raising it's voice it has intentions are go beyond the 4180 area. So, "Price, you have my attention". Sidebar: Back to my strategy of selling premium. I still have 160 points to fashion a hedge. I cannot stress enough that trading for profit is different from just trading. IT IS MY JOB TO PROTECT THAT POSITION. I will take action to either protect through hedging, or trading around that position, but I cannot stress enough, this strategy allows you to be wrong, and still profit. It is my central strategy. Some people are married to crypto, stocks, or indices. I'm married to profit. This strategy affords me the highest probability of profiting the vast majority of times. 2. Giving price the benefit of the doubt, I have to claim the 3788.50 bottom in mid December is our b wave bottom. If I get get proven wrong so be it...but risk management dictates for me to posture my trading that price is going to 4300-4500. I do not see it going there in February...but I'm going to be open minded. 3. Therefore based on our b wave being done we have key resistance areas at: (1) 4180 which is the prior high (2) 4207.50 .618 Extension of our a and b waves (3) 4309.25 is the .618% retracement level of the entire decline. Expect a reaction here. (4) 4321.25 .786 Extension of our a and b waves (5) 4327.50 The August 2022 highs (6) 4466.50 The 1.0 Fib Extension If we get over 4180, these are the price points that become essential to me to trade around. If we fail to get above 4180, then we can decline in a flat back down to 3788 area of higher, but that's the parameters as of now. Lets look at the micro count: Whether this is a c wave top (abc off of 3788 not to exceed 4180) or wave 1 of a larger c of b into the 4300-4500 area is yet to be seen. 4180 will answer that question for us. But I'll be watching for a retrace in a wave 2 to potentially put on a long mainly for hedging. I'll update in the morning but this is timely analysis and I wanted you to have it tonight once I finished it. With that I’m done for evening. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
29
Part 2 - Fibonacci Price Theory on SPY 60 Min (Deeper we go)After 25+ years of research, study, and application of some of the most incredible trading strategies - I'm sharing one of the MOST IMPORTANT structural price theories with all of you... The Fibonacci Price Theory. The primary rule of the Fibonacci Price Theory is: Price is ALWAYS seeking NEW HIGHS or NEW LOWS. Price is never NOT attempting to reach NEW HIGHS or NEW LOWS. Let that sink in for a minute. If you knew price was always attempting to establish a trend, or continue a trend.. how would that change your trading/investing tactics? What if I showed you how I use Fibonacci Price Theory? And how YOU can use it to further your own trading skills? Here you go, A 60 minute SPY chart where I'm applying the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory to the current market price rally. If you've ever wanted to learn the TRUE CONSTRUCT of price - this is it. All other technical analysis techniques (Elliot Wave, Indicators, & others) are constructed from PRICE. Price is the Ultimate Indicator. Pay attention and follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
Learning Fibonacci Price Theory - MUST WATCHEven though I got cut off after about 25 minutes, I'm sharing this with all of you to teach you how to use one fo the most important PRICE STRUCTURE features for any chart Fibonacci Price Theory. The consensus of all TA is that PRICE tells us everything. Fibonacci Price Theory is the REAL DEAL. Use it on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 60 minute, or Daily - ANY TIME-FRAME Use it in conjunction with other TA/Indicators. Use it with Elliot Wave analysis. USE IT. My experience is that all indicators/theories/strategies have strengths/weaknesses. If you are not aware of them (yet) - pay attention. Follow my research and I'll continue to try to share tidbits of advanced TA/Fibonacci with you. I created this to help my followers/friends learn one of the most critical price structure components of my own research. I see all price charts in the manner I've illustrated in this video. After more than 15 years of applied Fibonacci Price Theory/Structure - I can't help but NOT see price as "Fibonacci Fractals". Hope this helps.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
SPY Measure Move (Pause) Video Update - Rally To $421 PendingHere is a video update for my followers. This video is in support of the recent SPY updates I've shared over the past few days. Follow my research. Learn how my analysis skills can help you prepare for the biggest price swings. These are not the same markets as 2008 & 2000. Learn to adapt to price trends and become a better trader. I'm trying to teach you to use the techniques I've learned over the past 25+ years to hone your own decision-making skills. Pay attention.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It LastsThe period of market activity following the November CPI pump has been both a choppy grind and hard to get a handle on. I had personally believed that the market makers would run 3,700 long ago, but that we wouldn't set new lows. Turns out, after much deliberation, they ran 4,150 instead and dumped it back to 3,800 but still haven't taken 3,700. When trading, anyone who genuinely "knows" what is going to happen also isn't allowed to speak to the public. There are contracts binding their mouths with big penalties for violation. Ergo, literally all of us who are trying to do this are making a best-basis effort to anticipate what's going on and what's going to happen with limited information available. What this means is that to increase your accuracy and avoid blowing yourself up, you have to continually revaluate what you think is going to happen on the basis of what is actually happening in front of you. This is an important ability to build, but there's a lot of inner obstacles. You can only do it via determined and diligent mental and emotional self cultivation and improvement. All on its own the last 45 days of price action tells us something. The December FOMC rendezvous with the September CPI dump formed a double top where big, big fund positions selling short will be carrying market buy orders to exit their positions as part of their risk model because "resistance was broken." In terms of the market retracing and coming back to take out that level, this doesn't always work out, as seen on both Tesla at $315 and WTI Crude at $93. But, when combined with this three week period of "bear flagging" (it's just consolidation) and, as we saw on Friday with an unwillingness to trade lower even on Non-Farm Payroll day, arguably the third most volatile news driver of the month behind CPI and FOMC, it tells us more. Looking at daily candles, The fact that the market makers appear to want to trade higher without trading just a little bit lower to take the giant fund sell stops at 3,700 indicates to me that the biggest cowboys are actually long and the intention is to keep selling. Now, you're probably used to thinking, "Doesn't the price go down when big money is selling? Doesn't it go up when they're buying?" The answer to that is yes, but no. Think about it: if the banks were to sell low and buy high and then buy high and sell low, like you do, wouldn't there be a 2008 financial crisis all the time? Wouldn't they also blow their accounts like you do? Instead, although it takes a lot of money to buy and sell the orders planted along the way, the reality is that big funds and banks are selling on green and buying on red. Selling on green and buying on red. I've heard if you work at a trading desk and you buy on green and sell on red you'll quickly find yourself holding a filing box on the sidewalk waiting for the Uber to take you back to your apartment. This is really worth thinking about. Looking at monthly bars, last January was a 600 point nuclear month. The algorithms, although they do perform fractals on a consistent basis, generally, do not like to repeat themselves in such an obvious way. Ergo, expecting January '23 to be a big nuclear month may be a bit of an error in judgment. I think everyone now understands that the global economy is in big trouble, the living environment is in trouble, and on top of that the central banks aren't in the mood to run a bailout or a rate cut to save markets from crashing. And yet, they don't crash. That's because it's the same idea as the blade of a guillotine. Before you drop the hammer and decapitate your victim, you first slowly pull the rope so the knife is hanging high over head. "The bigger they are, the harder they fall." I believe that what we're about to see happen is SPX 4,230. There's a gap conveniently placed right above the double top from before September CPI. Both this and the late December pivot @ 3,79x are both very obvious on weekly candles. Once we get there and everyone has turned bullish again and forgotten where they are in the diagram, then it's time to start looking seriously at getting risk off and buying puts. Once the calamity really starts to unfold, you aren't going to see consolidation like this and we're not likely to get big bounces along the way. The kind of 200 points down one day 200 points up the next saw during COVID hysteria also isn't likely to unfold. It's just a question of what the catalyst will be. And that catalyst may very well come in the form of "China." I say "China" because although it may unfold in the nation of China, the issue is the Chinese Communist Party. You really have to separate that rogue regime from "the Chinese people" and "the Chinese nation." China is being absolutely sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia. The pandemic situation there is not like the COVID pseudo-pandemic we saw in North America. And this situation has been true for the better part of 3 years. Although the CCP covers it up and hides the data, just like they did during 2003 SARS, nobody seems to have learned their lesson that the regime is a chronic liar. Or at least, when it comes to the topic they exercise "Three Monkeys." One day that isn't all that far away, Xi Jinping and the Party will really be unable to contain reality any longer. In the same way that a forest fire that's absolutely out of control and absolutely raging will eventually roll towards the city (See 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire) and start smashing up industry, people, lives, and the regime for real. The warnings signs of this will be kept quiet by western media until it can't be hidden any longer. So you likely won't get much notice besides that prices stay high while volume drops and the USD and VIX start going on a "weird" moon mission. When it starts, you'll be greeted by unprecedented Monday morning breakaway gap downs that never recover. Ultimately, what I want to say to everyone who reads this is that the tribulation won't be limited to China's borders and will quickly become international. It will be the kind of thing that global governments cannot keep a handle on, either, and the problem will concern more than your stock portfolio. To evade and escape the disaster, it's absolutely critical that you do your part to oppose, reject, and stop supporting the Chinese Communist Party and all the Marxist-Leninist, socialist things it has spread around the world during the last 23 years via the United Front Work Department. It's a choice you both have to make, and one you'll be forced to honour by history.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
3
SPY Update (60 Min) - Rally Day Pause ExpectedEven though my SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a RALLY day, I see the SPY has extended to an upper resistance channel (near $414.80) and may pause/slide sideways/downward a bit today. I do expect support near $412.30 to act as a floor for any contraction. I would expect the SPY to hold above $412.30 and attempt to rally higher IF this price level is tagged today. Overall, if we see a rally above $415 today - the SPY will likely extend the rally phase. Possibly target $421 to $427. The Fed unleashed a wave of RALLY (Risk-On) for many investors. My advice - play this move safely right now. Although it looks very promising, I still believe 2023 will stay very congested until Q3:2023. Then, we may see a moderate MELT-UP extend to new all-time highs again. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Morning Update: Looking at the Bullish PerspectiveIt's hard to get excited about something you don't like. That's the best way to describe this pattern...I don't like it. But moving forward the below becomes my primary micro count in (black) as I believe it has earned the benefit of the doubt. I have an alternate count in (purple). However, I'm tracking this final move higher as impulsive so all the target boxes are areas I expect price to enter for each remaining wave. I can only assume we're going to extend because as of right this structure only points to 4240-4268.50. So if we are going to extend, wave 3 is where we should start to see some of that occur. I am watching closely to see if price behaves by hitting ALL the ideal areas. Failure to do so may signal we're coming up short. First test is we should get one more poke higher to complete wave v of 3 into the 4177.50-4188 area. Our minor wave iv may not be done so a trip down to 4020-4040 should not be a surprise. Our MACD indicators are starting to show overbought levels...so a longer drawn wave iv makes sense. My purple count supposes we could top where I'm counting wave 3. We do not get our first sign we have topped until we breach 4048.50 and confirmation comes ONLY with a breach of 3901.75. If we top in purple it is quite possible this entire move up will only be the a wave of larger B. That would certainly solve the time duration issue I have had. Key is to observe if price remains impulsive or if cracks start to emerge signaling we will not be hitting the standard retracement area for our larger b-wave this go around. My goal is try to get my short position in a more delta neutral posture with a hedge of some sort. If I do anything to hedge, I'll update this post so if interested keep referring to this post to get the play by play. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
6
S&P market maker sell modelYoutube still wants to short it... but we come from a Monthly Orderblock. Shorting is DONE! Now the Buyside is target. They will create the "bullish breakout" and all the Buy stops get taken into the market. This is when everyone thinks crash time is over. But do you think economy is good? This displacement that they will create above the highs will trap everyone in long. This Breakout traders will be burned to death. Think about it... They are not done down there. They would not let the sellside sit there. This is where they all place the sell stops when they chase the breakout this month. And when the real crash comes in summer months, this is where smart money accumulates the sell stops to build the new long positions.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by marvineckhardt04092003
1
Evening Update & Trade Alert: Fed DayI will recap the Thought Experiment in another post...but what is most timely is 4132-4136 is an area I may add to ES shorts....but on a very tight lease. Stay Tuned for a later update. Best to all, Chris IMPORTANT NOTE: SOMETIME BETWEEN MID AND END OF FEBRUARY I WILL ONLY BE POSTING ONCE PER WEEK HERE ON TRADING VIEW. I WILL ONLY BE DOING WEEKEND UPDATES. THE MORNING, EVENING AND SPECIAL UPDATES YOU HAVE RECEIVED IN THE PAST WILL NO LONGER HAPPEN. AS I GET CLOSER TO CHANGING MY POSTING SCHEDULE ON TRADINGVIEW.COM I WILL UPDATE MY FOLLOWERS HERE. CHECK MY PROFILE AREA FOR DETAILS.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
10
If the SPY breaks above $411.50 tomorrow - the RACE HIGHER is ONHave you been following my research? Maybe you should stop to consider what is possible with advanced predictive modeling solutions. For example, here are my SPY Cycle Patterns for the past 20+ days - and 20+ days into the future.... 1/18/2023 POP 1/19/2023 1/20/2023 BaseRally301 1/21/2023 Break-Away 1/22/2023 Rally-111 1/23/2023 Carryover 1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway 1/25/2023 Harami-Inside 1/26/2023 CRUSH 1/27/2023 Rev-Rally 1/28/2023 1/29/2023 1/30/2023 Inside-Breakaway 1/31/2023 Break-Away 2/1/2023 Rally-111 2/2/2023 Rally-111 2/3/2023 Carryover 2/4/2023 CRUSH 2/5/2023 Rev-Rally 2/6/2023 2/7/2023 2/8/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/9/2023 Harami-Inside 2/10/2023 CRUSH 2/11/2023 GAP Potential 2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal 2/13/2023 Rotation 2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21 2/15/2023 Consol-210 The high (so far) on the SPY reached the $411.46 level (a clear DOUBLE-TOP). Above that level, we'll see $418~421 fairly quickly. Please pay attention. Ask yourself one question: who else do you know that can predict price movement 120+ days into the future? Here we go.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
If SPY Breaks Above $410 - we could see $420+ very quicklyBreaking above the $410 resistance level could be a very big sign that bullish price trending is building momentum. Ultimately, I don't believe the SPY has enough momentum to get above $440~450 in 2023 - but I could be wrong. I do believe we will move into a bout of sideways congestion after Q1:2023 - and slide into a period of complacency. Near the start of Q3:2023, I believe we will see the bullish price trend resume - likely starting a push towards new all-time-highs again. We are certainly living in interesting times. If you are not following my research - please take a minute to review my posts/comments. Here we go.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny