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Weekend Update: Are We About to TOP (or Topped) in the ES/SPX?In our trading room we’ve been tracking what I have characterized as the final stages of a rally that began back in October at the lows of 3502. The question remains are we topping, or have we already topped? Longer term, I deduce there are two schools of camp from my CNBC White Noise in the background of my trading office. The first is we’re in a new bull market and the October lows are the lows. After some messy chopping around, we’ve built a strong base to attack the January 2022 highs later this year. Now to give this camp credit, (let’s call this camp 1) they’re calling for a consolidation of the gains so far. The second camp (let’s call this camp 2) , is we’re eventually headed much lower than 3502, and the January 2022 highs will be handily put in the rear view mirror for years to come. Did I say years?...I'm sorry, I meant at least a decade. I’m in camp 2. But let’s get something out in the open first. Camp 1 and 2 both acknowledge a consolidation of gains from October is in order in the short term. But that’s where our similarities end. In last week’s post, I provided details analysis and context surrounding my LONG-TERM analytical thesis of price being in a Super Cycle wave (IV) area of consolidation. I will not be rehashing that analysis again this week. Instead, I want to provide less of a long-term picture, and what is in store for us in the weeks and months ahead. The past week was filled with opportunity on the long and short side of price action. Today was the first day since the December lows of 3788 we started to crack. We’ve been steadfast in tracking a pattern that ends at 4242. Why? Because price has given us no indication that it will NOT get there. Until today. Now some of you may be saying one day does not make a trend. I agree. But put several of those together and that’s what you have. The beginnings of a new trend back down. The main chart shows how we cracked today. This price action, so far, does not constitute invalidation...but we're close. I consider 4025 the last line of credible defense. Below that, and I have to give credit to the larger downside pattern. To confirm the downside pattern, we have to breach 3901.75 on the ES. That's a long way away. Nonetheless, if we consolidate below 4150 and stay below that price level. Not only do I see a breach of 3901.75...but a breach of 3788. This would just be the beginning. Now if we can hold and not breach 4025. There is a weak case to make that 4242 may get tagged. In conclusion, whether we've topped, or we get 4242 in next several weeks. Camp 1 is about to get a lesson in "don't buy the dip". Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
11
SPY Example Setup For DaytradersHere is an example dual-chart setup for SPY daytraders. I set this up to help my followers understand how to perceive price action as we attempt to transition through the $405 SPY Support level. If my analysis is correct, we'll see a fairly strong reversion (upside) price trend as long as the $404~405 level holds. This chart includes a number of TradingView PUBLIC SCRIPTS and a dual-chart layout. Both Heiken-Ashi and traditional Candlestick charts are used. Learn to better TIME/ENTER your trades and learn to use price structure/Fibonacci retracements to develop target levels. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
1
SPX - The grind continues - plus AAPL, TESLA, AI, GEO, Nat GasDidn't get what I wanted to see today, that's trading for you. The possibility that we keep grinding higher for a week or more is certainly viable after today. Above we have the following - daily BB at 4190, Weekly BB at 4180, 100 weekly ma at 4215 and Monthly 18/20 at 4190 and 4210 respectfully. Some stocks like Tesla and AAPL seem to want to go higher after today and other stocks I'm watching also want to get a bounce. So there you have it, I was expecting something more but the market is simply not ready to drop. More grind will likely continue, even if we sell off tomorrow. I will keep watching and waiting for a definitive move down. Good luck!
AMEX:SPY
by the_sunship
4
2/16 SPY Cycle Patterns, Fib, Flagging - Volatility into a RALLYAre you following my SPY Cycle Patterns yet? If not, here is a list of the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week and beyond... 2/6/2023 2/7/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/8/2023 Harami-Inside 2/9/2023 CRUSH 2/10/2023 GAP Potential 2/11/2023 GAP Potential 2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal 2/13/2023 Rotation 2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21 2/15/2023 Consol-210 2/16/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/17/2023 Break-Away 2/18/2023 Carryover 2/19/2023 CRUSH 2/20/2023 Flat-Down 2/21/2023 POP 2/22/2023 2/23/2023 BaseRally301 2/24/2023 Harami-Inside 2/25/2023 CRUSH 2/26/2023 Bottom-004 Why are these so important? Because these SPY Cycle patterns help you understand how to trade intraday price swings and what to expect every day - going out weeks and months in advance of today's trading activity. See the "BaseRally301" on 2/23 - that means the SPY should attempt to setup a base/bottom within the 48 hours spanning 2/23. See the 2/25 CRUSH leading to the 2/26 BOTTOM - that means the SPY may be extremely volatile while attempting to setup/confirm the 2/23 bottom Today and tomorrow are calling for an Inside-Breakaway & a Breakaway. My research suggests we may see a broader downside price trend establishing a Wave-D Flagging setup (near $405) in the SPY before we move into the Rally/Bottom phase near 2/23. Watch my video and learn how you can use my research to become a better intraday/swing trader.
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
#ES_F Wednesday 2.15.23 Prep Wednesday 2.15.23 : Yesterday after CPI it looked like we could get our continuation lower after we took out 4123-19 Support but we failed to even tag 4103-4099 Key area for entrance back into T2 range where short covering came in and gave us a push back over 4143-37 telling us there is still good Daily Support in that area but the move higher failed to continue or reach 4168-62 because we trapped good amount of supply over 4150 in the morning to hold us down. Can we see that continuation today? Very possible because market has been showing us for last few days that we now have supply but not yet enough to take out T2 areas and make more people sell out. Today holding above Daily Support of 4123-4100 will be a sign of strength and we are inside T2 Range right by the high. Today 4123-19 will be our Key Support only with its break we can see continuation lower, if we fail to get back to 4123-19 and get over 4143-37 our T2 high area that will put next Resistance and Previous Day high as a good target, if we can make a push past that at some point and hold then could see us go for the stops over 4191-85 towards 4220-15. On the downside if 4123-19 breaks we are looking at Previous Day and T2 low as targets and possible break and continue. Unless those break and continue we are staying in this smaller balance with 4143-37 being our middle, 4168-62 Resistance and 4123-19 Support. IF Daily Support breaks watch out to the down side. **** We Do have Data this morning and for now holding under 4143-37 so watch out if data flushes under daily support and holds then we could see a big down day towards 4000 area and we will not be looking for any longs. Levels to Watch: Resistance Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4168-62 Current 4143-37 Support Key Daily 4123-4100 Key Intraday 4123-19 // 4103-4099 // 4084-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
#ES_F Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep Monday 2.13.23 Review: Sunday Globex pushed the market over our 4103 Resistance opened above it and we got a long move towards our supply area which is telling us there are still buyers at the cost basis at 4084-77 but even with both attempts over 4143-37 Resistance weren't as strong and didn't give much continuation or rejection, which so far tells us that this area over 4143-37 is heavier outside supply area and for now we are in balance here and still have shorts covering to keep us up. Tuesday 2.14.23 Prep: Currently over Daily Support, over T2 range and right around Previous Day High and waiting for CPI. Interesting spot we are in as we are sandwiched between Daily Support/Resistance in Distribution mode, can we hold up today and go higher? Will they use the data to run it higher and sell what they can before dropping the bid? or will we drop at CPI and either keep going or reverse and trend back up? Few different scenarios can play out but here is what we know. Our Daily Resistance area is 4215-4191 and Daily Support at 4123-4100 will be Key Locations to watch, any move into Daily Resistance we need to be careful with because unless we base under 4191-85 before taking it out or take it out and base above before taking out 4220-15 then it would be hard to sustain and keep up I think and we need to be careful for it to not reverse if we even go that way of course but we have to keep in mind its a larger supply area and if shorts see supply they will drop the bid and today if 4143-37 goes again that could give us lower targets down to 4084-77 which was already tested Thursday/Friday and might not have as much support this time around which is also our T2 low area. We are over T2 range and under supply so even with CPI we have to keep in mind that we could stay in a tight range still today without a big move out, something to watch out for if we just trade between the Daily Area. On the upside if 4143-37 holds today we have stops lined up over 4168-62 and 4191-85 those are good targets with possible move to 4220-15 if it stays strong. I will watch where the market will go first and make a decision from there. Levels to Watch: Resistance: Key Daily 4215-4191 Key Intraday 4220-4215 // 4191-85 Current 4168-62 Support: Key Daily 4123-4100 // 4000 Key Intraday 4143-37 // 4123-19 // 4084-77
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Stay cautious of a PEAK/TOP in the markets today.My SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the markets will establish a PEAK/TOP today - then trend downward. I created this video to help my followers stay aware of the short-term nature of price in a reactionary price trend - like today. If you are chasing this rally, stay very cautious of risks related to my SPY cycle patterns. Overall, I expect the markets to peak, stall, then trend downward over the next 48 hours. Take quick trades with targeted profit targets. This is not a friendly market uptrend in my opinion. I believe the $408 level is a likely downside price target for the SPY by Thursday. Follow my research
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
4
Trends showing lower highs; forming a funnel down?So we are hitting a 2hr uptrend right here at 4114. This is going to be a lower high 2hr uptrend. We have already had a lower high 30m and 1hr uptrend signal also. Having cashed out on my last trade, I might look at anything around the 2hr uptrend if it closes up here and causes that signal, as a short position. However, I am also aware that tomorrow is CPI data. So I may just sit out until that data shows some direciton in the market. There is some discussion that CPI inflation data is going to come in higher with headline Month over Month data, and that even Core Month over Month will be flat. The market may not respond well to that information if that happens. All in all, the trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots 30m - 4143 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 1Hr - 4100 Uptrend (2/10/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4105 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Lower Low 3Hr - 4092 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 4Hr - 4093 Downtrend (2/9/2023) Higher Low 6Hr - 4064 Downtrend (2/10/2023) Higher Low 12Hr - 3993 Uptrend (1/11/2023) Lower High Daily - 4084 Uptrend (1/27/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4366 Downtrend (2/14/2022) Higher Low Earnings; Lots of earnings this week as it is still earnings season, but nothing major in terms of today. Economic Data; Not much for today; CPI data is tomorrow morning (EST). My sentiment into today; Shorter Term - Neutral/Bearish Short Term - Neutral Medium Term - Neutral/Bearish Long Term - Neutral Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader