BABA
Alibaba - BABAWeekly Chart (right side)
- Nice long-term downtrend since mid-February 2021
Daily Chart (left side)
- Gab mid-March 2022 showed a nice support which were tested end of April 2022
- Another gab in the last days is currently showing some support
- The 50-MA is currently a strong resistance
- The MACD is slightly improving and the RSI just jumped over the important level of 50
The long-term all-time low (not displayed) is at USD 57.20 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement at USD 119.06 which marks a resistance, too
As the next earning report is expected on May 6 and the long-term trend is still bearish, I’m still not catching the falling knife.
$BABA Retest/Short Opportunity
Filled downside gap in a hurry, another gap up held for 2 days. Some brewing rumors hitting wires "China to impose compulsory measures on a person with surname of Ma" per Chinese media.
I think this retests a vwap ($108.41 to be exact) and an obvious place of resistance and sellers. Depending on global macros this could change quickly obviously.
Looking for a probing of $108-$110 then rejection. Always size appropriately for you're own risk management. A bevy of stops set below $80 is likely which could flush this down closer to it's all time lows.
Alibaba (NYSE: $BABA) Rock'n Higher On China Stimulus News! 👲🤟Alibaba Group Holding Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides technology infrastructure and marketing reach to merchants, brands, retailers, and other businesses to engage with their users and customers in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through four segments: Core Commerce, Cloud Computing, Digital Media and Entertainment, and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The company operates Taobao Marketplace, a social commerce platform; Tmall, a third-party online and mobile commerce platform for brands and retailers; Alimama, a monetization platform; 1688.com and Alibaba.com, which are online wholesale marketplaces; AliExpress, a retail marketplace; Lazada, Trendyol, and Daraz that are e-commerce platforms; and Tmall Global and Kaola, which are import e-commerce platforms. It also operates Lingshoutong that connects FMCG manufacturers and their distributors to small retailers; Cainiao Network logistic services platform; Ele.me, an on-demand delivery and local services platform; Koubei, a restaurant and local services guide platform; and Fliggy, an online travel platform. In addition, the company offers pay-for-performance, in-feed, and display marketing services; and Taobao Ad Network and Exchange, a real-time online bidding marketing exchange. Further, it provides elastic computing, database, storage, virtualization network, large-scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, machine learning platform, and Internet of Things services. Additionally, the company operates Youku, an online video platform; Alibaba Pictures and other content platforms that provide online videos, films, live events, news feeds, literature, music, and others; Amap, a mobile digital map, navigation, and real-time traffic information app; DingTalk, a business efficiency app; and Tmall Genie, an AI-enabled smart speaker. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.
BABA should hold 83 then BO Channel or 70 will be double bottomBABA has been making a long downchannel which has to be broken to be really bullish.
First it must hold the current 83 FIB level, then BO the downchannel at around 95. After that BABA will
still face a big resistance zone at the 110 to 130 range. There will be a lot of sellers here which the new buyers must be willing to absorb in order for the price to go above this critical zone.
Failure to hold the current 83 Fib level to see a double bottom for BABA at 70. This will be very very near the end of that big ABC correction.
BABA is the top e-commerce company in China (Amazon of China but with a very low PE ratio after this crash).
Not trading advice
$BABA, $AMZN 's dirty little secret.NYSE:BABA
Anyone paying attention to $BABA?
Are you considering buying into the $AMZN stock split?
Are you concerned about chinese stock delisting?
Geopolitics, Index fund Managers, lobbying, market reset by the FED's and technical analysis (the psychology of the investor) have a lot to do with what happens in the future.
Did you know that as of 2021, China-based sellers represented 75 percent of new sellers on Amazon, according to a report by Marketplace Pulse. This marks a significant increase from 47 percent in the previous year.
This large segment of China-based sellers on Amazon has not yet impacted the gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share. Domestic sellers are responsible for most of the total sales.
Three-quarters of new sellers in the top four core Amazon markets — U.S., UK, Germany, and Japan — are based in China. That percentage is the calculated average of the four marketplaces, according to Marketplace Pulse analysis of more than 40,000 sellers that joined those Amazon marketplaces so far in 2021.
So what does this mean for the future of $AMZN prices?
Simply, if BABA gets delisted; the revenge from the Chinese government will be major; you think logistical issues, trucker shortages, and inflation is affecting prices? You've not seen nothing yet!
My assumption is that the market reset is going as planned with major impact on Chinese stocks to limit the momentum of Chinese GDP (#2) against the U.S. (#1).
The U.S. needs China just as much China needs the U.S. so the lobbying power of $AMZN and the rest will ensure the continuity of Chinese presence in the U.S. (those max profits are critically needed).
Oooh before I forget, technical analysis:
Daily Chart
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): 20/50/100/200 EMA (everyone and their mama) are pointing downwards ! This spells bad news, especially going into May (a slow market month)
TTM Squeeze: Squeezing to the bottom; momentum to the downside for both $AMZN and $BABA.
Fib Levels: $BABA - with the current red candle crossing below the .618, there is very high probability that the price action will aim for the 1 fib. This will take us to the previous support and low of $73.28 or a possibility of going below that.
Candle Stick: Summary of last 5 candles equate to a bearish movement. The last pairs look like a Bearish engulfing
Pattern: Down by the sea ... off to the Falling Wedge for both $BABA and $AMZN
News: Do I need to add more to the above? Well, with $NFLX taking a whooping on recent price increase policy, do you think $AMZN may face the same fate?
History: The last 2 earnings have resulted in a downward trend even with great numbers. Everyone and their mama is talking about this stock...
Company is worth Trillions and the consumer base love them... hmm... I really need to be buying the bottom.
BABA the Daily Journal sold 50% of its stake in itIf you haven`t sold on growth concerns:
Then you should know that after averaging down multiple times, Daily Journal Corp, where investor Charlie Munger served as chairman until very recently, cut its stake by roughly 50%.
My expectation is to see a double bottom in BABA this year.
Bullish on BABA"Be greedy when others are fearful"
BABA is 70% off its highs from a year and a half ago and many investors are jaded. Looking at the technicals however, I'm seeing plenty of reasons to consider BABA a great opportunity to DCA into a long position here. The relentless overhead resistance and downward momentum appear to be dissipating as sellers run out of steam. Value buyers appear to be stepping in and the charts are showing increasing support. In addition, I'm seeing bullish divergence on the daily chart and a possible signal of a shift of momentum. All these signs lead me to think BABA is preparing to turn the corner. I'm not ready to call the bottom on BABA, but I'm interested in accumulating.
Happy Trading
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ALI BABA : SELL OR BUY ??The last time that the price was around 100 $ was at the IPO (2014) and then between AUG 2016- JAN 2017
TOTALL ASSET :
IPO(2014) : 41.27 B
2016: 73.55 B
2017: 114.01 B
2020: 257.86 B
2021 :276.25 B (UNTIL Q3)
GROSS PROFIT :
IPO(2014) : 8.12 B
2016: 14.05 B
2017: 20.66 B
2020: 42.09 B
2021: Q1 + Q2 +Q3 =37.25 + Q4(9.03)(IF WE CONSIDER SAME AZ Q4 OF 2020) = 46.28 B
P/E FORWARD = 7.40 !!!
P/S =2.12 !!!
P/CASH FLOW = 0.10
P/B = 1.79
RETURN ON ASSET = 3.86%
QUICK RATIO = 1.65
DEBT / ASSET RATIO = .08
All these items show the prices are not permanent.
Alibaba Provides A Trade For Bulls.The pattern is bearish for the short term, but can be bullish down the road.
For bearish traders, the trend is your friend (until it's not) and the stock is likely to continue downwards. Aggressive traders may decide to short the stock at the upper trendline and exit the trade at the lower trendline.
Bullish traders will want to watch for a break up from the upper descending trendline, on high volume, for an entry. When a stock breaks up from a descending channel, it's a powerful reversal signal and indicates a rally is likely in the cards.
Between March 15 and March 23, Alibaba soared 70% higher, but has since dropped into a falling channel pattern on the daily chart. Within the pattern, Alibaba has made a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows, with the most recent lower low printed on March 31 at $108.71 and the most recent lower high created at the $118.22 level on Monday.
It should be noted that the current falling channel on the daily chart could form into the flag formation of a weekly bull flag pattern.
Traders and investors can watch for a break up from the falling channel on higher-than-average volume to indicate a reversal is in the cards. If the stock breaks up from the pattern, the measured move of the weekly bull flag indicates Alibaba could trade up toward the $185 level.
The decline on Tuesday was on lower-than-average volume, which indicates consolidation rather than fear. By early afternoon, only about 20 million Alibaba shares had exchanged hands, compared to the 10-day average of 48.08 million.
There's a gap below on Alibaba’s chart between $80.14 and $87.12, which may give bullish traders pause because gaps on charts are about 90% likely to fill. There are also three gaps above on Alibaba’s chart that are also likely to fill in the future, with the highest gap ranging up near the $220 level.
Alibaba has resistance above at $121.95 and $130 and support below at $110.06 and $104.44.
BABA - Waiting for trigger to BuyConsidering the weekly movements of BABA, there is great harmony in the timing of the major tops and bottoms. The time difference between the two main bottoms (Sept 2015 and Dec 2018) has been modeled and repeated to have a major bottom of March 202. In addition, considering the major tops dates of BABA, we can see that the recent bottom has been felt on the 2.00 ratio, which can be used as a signal for the prediction of the next top using the 2.618 Fibonacci ratios. Using both the mentioned time series analysis, we will have a TRZ (time target) somewhere between March and June 2024.
With the purpose of finding PRZ (price target), I have checked the Elliot Wave beside the main historical Support lines of BABA. As we can see below, the ending wave of Elliot correction waves (E) has touched one of the most important supports of BABA ($78.4 zone), which makes us have a PRZ of $350 zone, using Fibonacci expansion ratios.
However, we need to look at lower timeframes to find the trigger to buy. The main chart that I have published here is the daily version of BABA, which is moving in a downward regression channel. As long as the channel is valid, downward movements of BABA would not be finished. However, BABA has broken one of its most important Resistances (zone of $110.1), which it is expected to act as a Support in future movements. There are two potential triggers for buying BABA, which is summarized as follows:
1. The price retouches the broken support line ($78.4 zone) but does not break it down:
In this scenario, we will wait till the price breaks the downward trend line, and using the stop loss under the $78.4 zone, we can buy BABA with the mentioned PRZ and TRZ as our targets.
2. The price goes up and breaks the $132.6 zone:
In this scenario, the price will have a pullback to either $110.1 or the broken $132.6, and we can buy in the pullback with the mentioned PRZ and TRZ as our targets.