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BABA

Alibaba | Fundamental Analysis | MUST READ ⚡️Alibaba shares fell 11% last week after the Chinese e-commerce and cloud leader released its Q2 earnings report. The company's revenue increased 29% YoY to $31.1 billion, $673 million less than forecasts. Excluding the consolidation of hypermarket operator Sun Art, the company's revenue would have grown only 16%. Adjusted earnings dropped 38% to ¥11.20 ($1.74) per ADS, which was not in line with the analysts' expectations by $0.19. Under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), which include many investment-related losses, adjusted earnings fell 81% to ¥1.97 ($0.31) per ADS. These numbers look terrible, but have investors overreacted and created a perfect opportunity for more calm investors? Let's break it down. Alibaba gets most of its revenue and all of its profits from its trading segment, which operates online marketplaces (Taobao, Tmall, and others), physical stores, cross-border and overseas markets, and the logistics arm of Cainiao. Alibaba Cloud, China's largest cloud infrastructure platform, is generating a growing percentage of the company's revenue. This segment is still loss-making on GAAP, but it makes a very small profit on adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation (EBITA). That growth rate seems healthy, but the retail segment has relied massively on the extension of its lower-margin retailers, online stores, cross-border and logistics businesses to offset the slowdown in its higher-margin online Taobao and Tmall stores in China. This pressure has caused the merchant segment's adjusted EBITA margin to fall sharply over the past year, even as cloud segment margins have recovered. This decline is likely to continue as new antitrust rules block Alibaba from making exclusive deals with merchants. Fierce competition from JD.com, Pinduoduo, and other rivals will increase this burden and make Alibaba rely even more on expanding its low-margin platforms to attract more buyers. This is worrisome because profits from Alibaba's commercial segment support the expansion of loss-making cloud technology, digital media and entertainment, and innovation initiatives. The loss of these profits could notably diminish Alibaba's capacity to develop its ecosystem. Alibaba's profit miss and shrinking margins were already disappointing, but the company's forecasts were even worse. Back in May, Alibaba said its revenue would grow by about 30% in fiscal 2022. It reiterated that forecast in August. But this time, it lowered that forecast to growth of only 20% to 23%. Management attributes this significant decline to lower commercial revenues from both direct sales and customer management (listing fees and commissions). By contrast, experts forecast JD and Pinduoduo to increase their revenues by 29% and 83%, respectively, this year. During the conference call, CFO Maggie Wu explained the slowdown by competition from "more players" in China's e-commerce sector and suggested that these rivals are "raising investments to acquire users." On the other hand, Wu said the company's international business, which mainly includes the Southeast Asian trading platform Lazada, the Turkish trading platform Trendyol and the cross-border trading platform AliExpress, is still showing "strong growth." Nevertheless, she did not address Lazada's continued loss of the Southeast Asian market to Sea's Shopee over the past four years. Alibaba trades at just 18 times projected earnings. JD trades at nearly 40 times projected earnings, and Pinduoduo has a P/E ratio of nearly 90. Some influential investors, including Charlie Munger, think that Alibaba's market dominance and lower valuation make it an undervalued growth stock. But it's hardly a bargain, and here is why: its main profit engine is slowing, its margins are falling, and it has too many rivals in China. All of these problems, as well as unresolved regulatory problems with Chinese stocks listed in both the U.S. and China, make Alibaba seem like a value trap. Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
NYSE:BABAShort
by FOREXN1
10
BABA keep going lower???In the past few weeks, BABA keep going lower and lower and lost 65% of its value in the last 58 weeks! Any sign of recovery? I'm not able to see any ..! These green lines are a possible support zone! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BABA
by Moshkelgosha
5
AliBaba Poised to loose more ground. BABAWe are still zigzaging on this one. Momentum in the negative, crashing through resistances. I suppose it's only fair given the stellar impulse we have seen earlier. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
NYSE:BABAShort
by Rykin_Capital
ALIBABA BOUNCE FROM TREND LINE Alibaba oversold - RSI is low, historically this has preceded growth. P/E and P/B are low compared to other industry players and historically. Stochastic RSI was also down so tomorrow may be good for a buy. Debt to equity ratio decreasing. despite a bit of increased dept from a few Quarters ago. Let's see what the next few days bring, likely will open a buy position. I will update with TP levels. Hope you enjoy the idea. Let me know what you think below, anything to add or that I miss? Good day to you
NYSE:BABALong
by SaucyLettuce
4
BABA's Elliott wave count, one probable count out of many !!! Double and Triple ZigZag Rules: Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below. Wave W must be a Zigzag. Wave C of W cannot be a failure. Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET. Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price. Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price. The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W. Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time. Wave Y must be a Zigzag Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price. Back to back and double failures are not allowed. Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price. Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time. Wave C of Y cannot be a failure. Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET. Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price. Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y. The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W. Wave Z must be a Zigzag Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price. Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price. Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time. Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines: The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price. Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern. Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price. Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W. Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W. Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W. Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W. The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price. The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1. Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price. Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X. Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern. Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price. Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y. Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y. Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y. Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y. The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price. Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price. Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y. The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.
NYSE:BABA
by samitrading
BABA's Elliott wave count, # 2 probable count out of many !ZigZag Rules: A ZigZag is a three wave structure labeled A-B-C, generally moving counter to the larger trend. It is the most common three wave Elliott pattern. Zigzags are corrective in nature. Wave A must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal. Wave B can only be a corrective pattern. Wave B must be shorter than Wave A by price. All internal points are considered. Wave B must be at least 20% of A by price. Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must not exceed 10 times the time taken by Wave A. Wave C must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal. If Wave A is a Leading Diagonal, then Wave C must not be an Ending Diagonal. Wave C must be longer than 90% of Wave B by price. Wave C must be less than 5 times Wave B by price. It is not allowable to have both Wave 5 of A a failure (Wave 5 is shorter then Wave 4) and Wave 5 of C a failure. Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Wave A or B in price or time. ZigZag Guidelines: It is unusual for a Wave within Wave A to have a greater gross price movement than Wave A. Wave B should end nowhere near beginning of Wave A Wave B should retrace at least 30% of Wave A. Wave B is most likely to retrace Wave A by about 38.2%. Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 50%. Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 61.8%. The largest Wave in B is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A. The time taken by Wave B is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of the time taken by Wave A. Wave C is most likely to have a similar price length to Wave A. The next most likely price lengths for Wave C are 61.8% and 161% of Wave A The next most likely price length for Wave C is 61.8% of Wave A beyond the end of Wave A. If Wave C is much longer than 161.8% of A, then the pattern is more probably the beginning of an Impulse than a Zigzag. If Wave C is complete, and has a greater slope than Wave A, expect the Zigzag to extend to an Impulse. Although Wave C should always be greater in price to Wave B, in rare cases Wave C can be up to 10% shorter than Wave B. The largest Wave within C by price is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A. The time taken by Wave C is usually between 61.8% of Wave A and 161.8% of the shortest Wave of A and B.
NYSE:BABA
by samitrading
BABAAlibaba is in the correction phase. After having broken the support line, we are correcting Fibo. In search of 61.80% and we still have 78.6% that is at 84 dollars. Now just expect a very visible figure or strong reversal pattern! DISCLAIMER: Please note that my studies portray my personal opinion only and should be considered for educational purposes only. They should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell an asset! I am not responsible for any damages to your capital. Your capital is at risk in the equity market.
NYSE:BABALong
by DuhNT
BABA has more downside leftPeople who are referring to Charlie Munger , Ray Dalio and other Gurus taking positions in Baba, prove again and again that we are retail herds. You know their positions for last quarter after 13F filings does anyone know their short positions and Option Strategies. TV Media / Youtube Videos and other blogs keep spreading the narrative about Baba is available at great valuation and the herd follows the Fundamentals and Shmundamentals. Its happened in the past and it will keep happening but the way the herd will be played will be different. Looking at the Technical , there are 2 areas where the price can bounce, around $110 and then around mid 80s. Till then I don't see Bulling Divergences, Not much Volume , and no strong Bulling Patterns. At Smaller Time Frames like the 1 Hr, there is a bullish pattern forming, but it will not last due to strong Downward trend on the Daily. There is a chance of another downtrend around Feb earnings season. Then Sideways Consolidation till Aug-Sept 2022.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Swaraj6688