BABA
Why BABA will not go down more, at least in the near future!BABA experienced more than 52% correction in the past trading year!
Between August 16-23, we see a huge increase in the trading volume, and so far August 2021 has had the highest trading volume since November 2014.
BABA's short interest after an 11% decrease is 1.69%, which means no one thinks BABA is a short opportunity at this price!
I believe it could easily experience a rebound to 180-200, however trade war can cause stagnation, but a more bearish case is very unlikely..!
Great R/R for BABA short term, but could fall another 10-20%.Hey friends. One of my friends (and 100% a 'boomer in the making') was looking for some info on BABA. His strategy is always "BTFD" , and he holds very the long term.
Looking at $BABA through a bullish perspective, it's in a decent oversold condition with a defined risk/reward. The weekly candle is a bullish reversal 'doji', and we're below the forming descending wedge (a typical "wave e"), plus the RSI is crazy oversold (weekly RSi has only been this low once or twice). Depending on what happens on Monday morning, you can buy at market open around 161 (likely no higher than 164), with a defined stop below the low of 152.39.
Looking at $BABA through a bearish perspective, you can see that China's S&P equivalent (the CSI 300 Index, bottom chart) is also weak, which means China ain't so hot right now. We're below all major moving averages, and our MACD is showing no sign of a reversal. Keltner channels are all trending down.
From a macro perspective, there's a lot of leftover tension from the trade war, and long term they're looking to do CNYUSD currency swaps (that is, swap all reserves and holdings from global USD to Chinese CNY, which will ease their reliance and dependency on playing nice with the US). I'm no expert, but they'll likely be selling USD and buying CNY, forcing the CNY up from increased demand. Therefore, because most of the CSI 300 companies 'holders' are denominated in CNY (I can't imagine many foreign holders of these companies), the companies will lose relative 'share value' to CNY. A temporary drop in China's stock market is a small price to pay for international autonomy and a shot at being the global reserve currency. Long term, they're looking to replace all trade partners with domestic solutions, so maybe my boomer-buddy has the best BTFD moment in history! There's actually a great Market Huddle Episode on China-USA Trade relations and the Triffin Paradox here
Below, here's the CNYUSD. Does that look bullish? If it does, their stock market is about to take a wee-plunge.
Good Luck!
NTES - Bullish on earningsNTES is a China tech company that provides online gaming services. All the china stocks are risky right now with their gov't sanctions, but they provide a good valuation. Some are down over 20-30% in last 3 months. Earnings is Aug 31 aftermarket and I think they will beat eps and revenue. Options - There are over 28000 calls OI for sept 17 exp, 19000 puts OI. Earnings Trend - PDD, JD. SE
NASDAQ Golden Dragon: falling knifeI am sorry to draw the attention of all those who are not indifferent
$ BABA $ BIDU $ TAL $ NIO $ LI $ VIPS $ JD $ PDD
From a technical point of view, the potential for a fall of 30 points, this is the middle of multi-year accumulation at the end of 2013-2017
Also, the level I set in the middle of the range acted as support twice: in 2019 and 2020
The largest cluster in the volume profile coincides with the set level
The rise, as well as the fall, were very exponential and were accompanied by high momentum, so the likelihood of a return to this zone is high. It may well be an impulse that returns to its starting point. We are seeing a steep drop and a gradual increase in trading volumes, so do not rush to buy off the bottom. China will provide excellent opportunities in the future, all that is needed now is to wait for the asset to slow down its decline and go into the accumulation
JD vs BABA . Is BABA "Cheap" now ? Though not in any of these names , I have been watching JD and BABA lately and It seems like JD is the better buy of the two . I think that both names have good potential to produce a profit for the long trader and I have no plans to trade this as a beta hedge but I think it really shows us who is boss, as of late, in the chinese e-commerce market . Especially evident when comparing the charts of each too . BABA is in a confirmed downtrend and put in lower lows while JD formed more of a range .
Also, JD is the up and coming and coming stock of the two and I see more potential for JD to be a super performer in the coming years of the two .
Once again, no plans to beta hedge this but I think I will watch JD for long opportunities and I am betting that JD continues to outperform BABA.
For my style I will wait for JD to break into new highs to get active but I do like the company very much at this point .
$SOHU: China Come Back Poster Child?SOHU has been showing terrific relative strength against a basket of other Chinese ADR's and the KWEB etf. Last quarter was a 400% earnings upside surprise, and technically speaking, you could look at this as a large cup and handle pattern trying to break to the up side. At symmetry here, could this be a tremendous value buy? Or will the CCP keep up the antics? Stay tuned!
$BABA | Model Identifies Buy OpportunityHello Traders,
The targets on this chart are produced by a proprietary model. Data is fed into the model, the output is the targets you see on the chart.
In light of recent fundamentals $BABA and a slew of Chinese Stocks have taken a nose dive. My proprietary model is pointing in the opposite direction.
This will be a test for the model.
Falling Knife of Alibaba..!What is a Falling Knife?
A falling knife is a colloquial term for a rapid drop in the price or value of a security. The term is commonly used in phrases like, "don't try to catch a falling knife," which can be translated to mean, "wait for the price to bottom out before buying it." A falling knife can quickly rebound - in what's known as a whipsaw—or the security may lose all of its value, as in the case of bankruptcy.
What a Falling Knife Tells You
The term falling knife suggests that buying into a market with a lot of downward momentum can be extremely dangerous—just like trying to catch an actual falling knife. In practice, however, there are many different profit points with a falling knife. If timed perfectly, a trader that buys at the bottom of a downtrend can realize a significant profit as the price recovers. Likewise, piling into a short position as the price falls and getting out before a rebound can be profitable. Moreover, even buy and hold investors can use a falling knife as a buying opportunity provided they have a fundamental case for owning the stock.
Highest trading volume in a week since 2014..!
WSB : Number 3 on Their mentioned list!
Possible quick reversal to 190-200???
$BABA$BABA is simply being sold for one reason right now, fear that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) policies will do "something".
That "something" ranges from nationalizing large companies in China to banning profits and foreign investment to the more standard communist practices of wealth redistribution and an inefficient government bureaucracy amongst widespread corruption.
But if we’re looking at $BABA as a company it’s undervalued.
If price is able to find support around my boxed level it would give a good long term hold.
Oversold on all major timeframes.
- Factor Four
Alibaba Analysis 20.08.2021Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next days/weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
If you have any questions or suggestions which asset I should analyse tomorrow, please leave a comment below.
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Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!