$BABA broke a half year downtrend. Currently only go up.NYSE:BABA
$BABA broke a half-year downtrend. Currently, only go up.
BABA
$BABA got hit hard soon recovery time?Alibaba got hit hard this year, but now seems to show some signs of a possible HTF reversal.
Currently breaking out of a beartrendline that has been rejecting price for over 6 months now.
RSI creeping past 50 and i'm feeling kinda bullish for $BABA.
BABA Doji Breakout Candle - End of Elliot Wave- Continuation to be seen above 215.40
- First target set at POC from Volume Profile @ 228.45
sleeping giant $BABA is about to wake *This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Recap: My team has been following Alibaba for the past few months. We originally entered $BABA on 5/27/21 at $207 per share. There is no denying the massive oversell of BABA. After correcting from its 52-week high of $319.32 $BABA now sits at just $214.22 per share. $BABA is a GREAT stock going forward and we absolutely believe that it will be trading in the $300 range before October.
Today my team has placed a buy order on $BABA at $220. We believe that if $BABA reaches $220 it will continue to push forward and have a short-term rally up to around $238 which was our original target. If price reaches $238 we will trim and wait for another opportunity to average up before $BABA pushes to our first take profit at $265.
If you fail to plan...you plan to fail.
We're long.
FIRST ENTRY: $207
BUY ORDER: $220
TAKE PROFIT: $265
STOP LOSS: $203
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BABA setupThe fundamental for the company is still bullish.
* News of customer data leak didn't send this crashing down and historically the market is relatively tolerable towards data leaks .
* All regulatory fines are settled and Jack Ma's lack of presence is at least indicative that he acknowledges a positive correlation between BABA's success and his attitude towards the CCP.
Inflationary risks also seem much less of a concern in China vs. US.
The technical buildup is also interesting.
* Nearing the apex of this falling wedge
* In the Historical Buy Zone (long term supporting trendline/zone)
It's also worthy to point out RSI behaving interestingly with BABA at weekly views, with successful entry setup seen at RSI < 35 indicated by green arrows, and riskier but would have been successful setup seen at RSI < 40 indicated by yellow arrows.
Position: TBD
Waiting for confirmation of close above the upper line of the falling wedge in the daily chart
BABA LONG IDEABABA LONG IDEA. IF BABA BREAKS THE FIRST BUY RANGE I EXPECT A TEST OF THE NEXT ONE BELOW. EASY RISK TO REWARD WITH CLEAN TP TARGET.
Best Deep-Value Large-cap Growth play - Alibaba (BABA)Macro Reasons
-China has a population of 1.3billion VS US's 0.33 Billion, about 4x more
-Rising Chinese middle class with a growing disposable income
-It is estimated that China's GDP is set to overtake the US in 5-8 years
Fundamentals Reasons
-With 56% of the e-commerce market share in China and a growing e-commerce pie, Alibaba is poised for greater growth in 5-10years
-Supported by Cainiao logistics to enable efficient e-commerce delivery and Alipay to complete its transactions/funding for their merchants, it forms Alibaba's iron triangle to capture a large market share in the e-commerce related space.
-Dominant Cloud player at 40% market share, this segment just turned profitable recently and will contribute to its growth strongly like Amazon's AWS (30% margins)
Valuation
FCF: 26Bil USD per year i.e 9.6 USD per share (2.711 Billion shares outstanding)
20X multiple(Bottom valuation) : 192 USD per share
25X multiple(Bottom valuation) : 240 USD per share
Net Cash of 20 USD per share (462bil RMB Cash - 115bil RMB Debt = 347 RMB Net Cash = 54bil USD net Cash )
Fair Value at current conditions = 212 USD per share (20X FCF) - 260 USD per share (25X FCF)
FCF 10 years later: 9.6 USD *4.04 (15% CAGR for 10 yrs) = 38.78 USD per share
20X multiple (10% discount rate - 5% perp growth): 775 USD per share +20USD net cash =795 USD per share
795/215 (Current share price 14th June 2021) = 3.70X in 10 years* i.e 14% CAGR
*Very conservative estimate of 15% CAGR FCF & terminal multiple of 20X, also assuming all FCF are re-invested in other biz and not distributed via dividends/ buybacks
Technicals
Seems like it is at its bottom after a 30% slump in its share price, touching a very strong upward sloping support line indicating the bottom is near. Incidentally, it corresponds with the bottom valuation of 212 USD per share (20X FCF + net cash).
Addressing Risks
Risks of VIE structure & CCP risk are unfounded, one can easily exchange its ADR for the equivalent HK shares at the ratio of 1ADR:8 HK shares and Alibaba is too big to fail for the CCP. The recent USD2.8 Billion fine on BABA is only 4% of revenue and not as dramatic as the 30% slump in BABA's recent valuation (from $310 to $211 per share). Also, the CCP has recently approved Ant Group’s new license to operate Chongqing Ant Consumer Finance, in which it has a 50 per cent stake. This indicates that the CCP doesn't want to tear down Alibaba but rather work towards a more successful China together.
BABABABA Long🚀📊
It is not financial advice. This is my opinion. Please check yourselves and invest in the symbols in which you think have a huge opportunity to reach the best results.
please leave us your opinion and reviews.🙏
Good Luck 👍
BABA - Wait For The Trigger!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
BABA is sitting around strong weekly support and round number 200.0 in green so we will be looking for buy setups.
on H4: BABA formed a valid channel in red but it is not ready to go yet.
Before we buy, we want the buyers to prove that they are taking over again.
You don't want to buy a bearish market right?
Trigger => Waiting for a momentum candle close above the last swing high (in gray) to buy.
Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, BABA would be overall bearish can still trade lower.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Long BABA, and again at $175 if the opportunity arises.Going Alibaba Group Holding Limited right here, in the hope the price will drop to $175 where I will add to my position size.
BABA Inverse Head and Shoulders?I think that this may be a inverse head and shoulders. Unsure. Waiting for a 4 hour chart close above neckline to confirm.
//Even though I've been buying puts on BABA I think that this might be seeing some KABOOM soon. It's in a year long wedge.
BABA on a key area. Bullish breakout or bearish continuation?Today we will share a daily view of the $BABA chart.
Main aspects we can see here:
-The price is facing an ascending trendline.
-The previous level converges with a support/resistance zone working since 2018.
-The current bearish trend can be defined as a descending Wedge pattern (if the price keeps moving between the structure lines, of course.)
If I'm interested in bullish movements only. What can you wait for before trading?
-A clear scenario for a bullish continuation movement would be a breakout of the structure followed by a corrective movement (like the circle you can see on the chart. Of course, take it as a model to replicate). IF that happens, we will be setting pending orders above the structure (green horizontal line), and we aim for a target on the next resistance zone 268 - 274
-Risk and time.
-We will be risking 1% of our capital on this setup. Meaning that if the price executes our order and then goes straight to our stop loss, we will be losing 1% of our capital at that level. Then, if we aim to a risk-reward ratio of 2, we will be making 2% of our capital in the best scenario. If the order is executed, we expect a resolution between 15 to 30 days.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comment box.
$BABA Channel. Looks pretty bullish. It's testing 209.4Have been trading this channel for a bit. I think every trade was a put from the middle or top of the channel. It's kind've falling in between the channel and that's where the highs are. Does this indicate that the channel will be moved or not be valid anymore soon? I think so. At least investopedia says that when stuff stops touching the bottom and top consistently to be weary.
How I see you (BABA)I am looking at BABA chart with MA200-day, MA50-day, MACD and Volume.
(Best to move chart to Week and Month to see clear MA proof)
It's interesting how BABA build candle over-and-over the green MA50.
I see 1-2-3 hits over the MA200 with upwards trend, looking for the date range,
we can see they're same numbers of days 455d/ 65bars.
I am looking forward to see a clear stock growth.
I am looking also to MACD and see an upwards trend.
(This is my way of thinking, please be carefully how you invest)
BABA, Insane setup on the Weekly, Options Play Falling Wedge
Perfect Eliot wave count on the way up 1,2,3,4,5,
ABC correction wave
Lingering at the 200 EMA and SMA (previous bounce zones)
MACD rising from the beginning of the year
RSI < 35
IV on call contracts is historically low, buying OTM August opex
$BABA Waiting for entryI have noticed a lot of bullish sweeps lately trying to guess the bottom here. There is a descending wedge forming on the weekly chart that has become an issue if it continues to drop under the buy zone that I have set below. My buy zone is based on the retracement level that coincides with the highs in 2018. As these sweeps kept coming in, the 2022 LEAPS caught my attention. If BABA manages to break out, it will be interesting how price will hold these levels now that it seems that big accumulation is taking part. Also important to note that ADX is getting a strong sell signal whilst orderflow shows otherwise. IV is also the lowest it has been in the last 52 weeks, so a big move to either side could take place soon.
9988.HK Alibaba Pyramid of Doom over soon?After all the apocalypses they experienced since last year, It seem china BABA, gaining momentum soon. What's your take?
$AAPL $NFLX $BABA $HD I OptionsSwing WatchlistHD 2H I HD is currently breaking out of this bullish formation with strength. Looking for a break above $313 with a $320 target next week.
AAPL 1D I Held the bullish uptrend established back in September. Unusual options activity was bullish and they bet on a retest of $128 this upcoming week.
NFLX 1H I Trading within a bull flag, we are looking for a break this week give unusual options activity betting on the $495-$500 calls for 06/18.
BABA 1D I Massive falling wedge pattern which could break to the upside before earnings on 08/19. The Chinese giant is more than 30% down from ATH levels. However, there is some sense of renewed hope in the company as US investor Charlie Munger recently disclosed a sizable stake in the company.
BABA broke down out of upward channel but...We are actually showing relative strength when factoring in oversold levels.
I'm looking for BABA to bounce and break back into the upward channel next week.
We could see one more day of weakness but we should get that bounce Friday or Monday.
My goal is to see the 230's trade by end of month.
Long the 8/20 $225 CALLS. Paid $5.75
BABA - 1D candle - Long Above 220$ BABA can interest me for a cute swing.
This stock is a strong company, with good Revenue, future prospects and technological innovations.
China’s e-commerce is testing a critical point in the graph as it reaches its rising trend line, outlined from the start of its IPO.
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Recent News (Fundamental):
* It announces that it will produce robots that will enter the Chinese economy.
* It announces that it will start producing electric trucks.
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The average analysts' rating by "TipRanks" is positive.
With a consensus of 25 buy recommendations right now!
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technical analysis :
Above price 220$ it will prove that it breaks the descending triangle
Under 195 I would less recommend holding it
PT1 - 268.50$ (Conservative)
PT2 - 297-300$
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* For traders who like to measure price levels with Fibonacci, it appears for you in the graph, from the highest price to the price at which the stock is currently
* There is no recommendation, you are big kids, do your research .. I just share with you my trading ideas
* Let me know what you think, your opinion is important to me !
Is $BABA taking one last nap?*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
My team remains confident in the long-term success of $BABA (unless fined to death by China), but is it ready?
My team isn't too confident in the short-term price action of $BABA. We believe that the e-commerce giant needs one more push down before finally being ready to hit our long-term target of $260. In the meanwhile we're setting a sell order for $BABA at $206 and selling down to $190.
Although our short-term confidence in $BABA is poor our original buy entry at $207 will remain (view previous posts for more info). These buy entries have a trailing stop loss of $208 to avoid taking any losses on the trade before our sell order activates.
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
BABA - Watch Closely!IC&H and H&S pattern detected. It's obviously been beaten up but I am not sure I am falling for the head fake here. Keep an eye out for a possible "ugly" but functional W pattern here. A break below 220 would invalidate the W but a break above 271.21 shoulder resistance would complete the W and if held as new support, would bring it back to ATH's with a PT of 271.21. I am a buyer above shoulder resistance. Let's see how this shakes out!
