$BABA BEAR Case - Going to $200-$205BEAR CASE
Main Points:
1) Stoch RSI is nearing overbought
2) ABC correction = 3-3-5 Flat
3) 0.786 retracement of previous full wave = 201
4) Equal legs target of Wave A = Wave C = 214.50 (exceeded)
5) previous support level @ 203
6) confluence of previous support and fib resistance levels at 200-205
Inference: $BABA is in a downtrend wave 5 which will complete the ABC correction from Oct high of $318 to the 0.786 fib/previous support around 201-205
Counter Points:
1) MACD is moving bullish not bearish
2) RSI is is just crossing from oversold levels with lots of room to go
BABA
BABA Spike: Dead Cat Bounce?I've been watching NYSE:BABA over the past week as much hype has surrounded its recent fall. There has been a lot of bragging about profits made on the dip buy and if you've read my posts for long enough you know my cardinal rule, especially when it comes to options, is "if you're bragging, you should be taking profits!"
I'm not one to jump in just to be contrary but the stock price did exhibit a bearish spike at a major resistance this morning. This sets up a play back down to retest the recent low.
I did not like the Single options as they are volatility elevated so I went with a Vertical Put spread to express the trade.
Possible short term rebound. Then $190 till Weekly 200 EMA.Updating my previous idea:
IMO it's possible to see a short-term rebound till $240 where the confluence of fib. retracement 0.5 (ATH to march '20 low) and fib. retracement 0.618 (ATH to dic '18 low) are.
Then, expecting more downside until aprox. $190 were the Weekly 200 EMA is. Just before the february earnings where trend reversal is possible if strong growth continue .
My last short Price Target was perfectly touched.
Thoughts?
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BABA LOOKS ATTRACTIVE AT THESE LEVELSBaba is now at 2018 levels and looks very attractive.
I'll focus only on Ichimoku weekly.
The tenkan and kijun are acting as support for the lagging span.
The price has reached the top of the cloud, which is acting as support.
Not a bad place to enter a long term trade, with a stop loss at the low of the day.
BABA Clear this one going back up very soon. Don't Miss Out IMOThis one filled the gap at $216.50 on Thursday last week. This is the gift that AMZN never gave us to get back in. If you're a seller or short seller here then I just can't talk sense with you. This thing is about to increase it's revenue growth a ridiculous amount with the new cloud storage business they are ramping up. The news cycle will inevitably change and die down and then they will start to ramp it up again. The ability to get this down here is a last chance type of deal in my opinion.
Happy hunting.
(I'm long with shares and calls)
Not trading advice.