ALIBABA broke above the yearly Resistance. Buy signal.Alibaba broke on Friday above the Falling Resistance that was initiated on January 26th.
That was also a crossing over the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Technically that is a strong double bullish break out for a potential long term bullish reversal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 105.00 (Resistance 2 and Fibonacci 0.618) and 120.00 (Resistance 3 and Fibonacci 1.000).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) has been on a Rising Support since March 10th. A Bullish Divergence and clear sign of a long term bullish reversal.
Please like, follow and comment!!
BABA
A different way to identify momentum with MACD (BABA)Before coming up with this idea I asked myself the following question: is there a way to visualize whether sellers or buyers are in control during a certain move/period of stock price action?
In order to achieve this, I decided to connect the moves with the associated changes on the MACD histogram bars and try to plot the "area's" on the Histogram bars as a form of "accumulative momentum".
With BABA, it can be seen seen that a "change of character" has occurred since march of 2022 where for the first time the area above the 0 line between the histogram bars became larger than the area below it. Is this further evidence that the stock has been in accumulation mode ever since? Time will tell!
YINN - a leveraged bullish ETF for Chinese stocks.YINN is a 3X leveraged bullish ETF of Chinese stocks. As can be seen on this one hour chart,
YINN has jumped nearly 30% since the beginning of the moth. On the chart is a moving average
ratio indicator ( with settings SMA7 / SMA28 ratio ). When the ratio crosses the zero line, the
shorter average is rising faster than the longer average demonstrating bullish momentum. Here
I used it as an entry signal. ( the exit signal would be the ratio dropping below the zero
horizontal line which has not yet occurred) For confirmation and further entry justification,
the volatility indicator shows spikes above the running average volatility in order to be
that there is enough volume and price action to get into a good trade in the direction of
the trade. Fundamentally, the Chinese economy is open and growing. the CCP has resisted the
urge to raise prime rates as compared with Western central banks. ( BABA and NIO have
good current price action.) Given the guidance of the chart, YINN seems to be a
good long trade I will continue to add to the trade when the chart tells me the time is right.
$PDD - The Appeal 🔥 NASDAQ:PDD appealing setup - remaining subdued throughout the day, setting the stage for a potentially stronger push. If it surpasses $82.83, we can expect a move towards $84, followed by a possible pullback before attempting to test the 61.8% retracement level at $88.45 (gap fill). PDD's showing promise with the recent distribution of $697 million USD in deep discounts to generate consumer demand. The extended rally is also fueled by China stimulus hopes ( NYSE:BABA , NASDAQ:JD and major Chinese tickers are witnessing the same effect).
Part II of BABA thesis using Wyckoff phases and volume analysisThis Idea is part II to the previously published BABA idea using Wyckoff's accumulation method. This idea includes the identification of the different Wyckoff accumulation phases and the characteristic accompanying volume analysis.
All information is on the chart!
NQdecipher
BABA with a Bullish Breakout on the Daily trendBABA has recently confirmed a bullish breakout on the daily trend, indicating a potential continuation of the upward momentum. The formation of a triple bottom pattern further reinforces the bullish outlook. As long as the support level holds, we can expect the price to rally towards the recent highs around $105. Traders should monitor the price action for further confirmation and adjust their strategies accordingly. It's important to stay informed about the latest market conditions and news related to BABA for a well-rounded analysis.
Alibaba:From Promise to Setback and The Potential for ReboundAlibaba, once considered a promising investment tied to China's growth prospects, has faced significant setbacks in the past five years. Despite its declining stock price, the company has continued to expand its business, albeit at a slower pace. However, there are reasons behind Alibaba's decline in appeal, and it's worth exploring the likelihood of a stock rebound in the coming years.
During the past five years, Alibaba achieved impressive growth in annual revenue, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% from fiscal 2018 to 2023. However, recent data indicates a concerning deceleration in growth over the past two years.
This slowdown can be attributed to two primary challenges. Firstly, Alibaba faced setbacks when China's antitrust regulators imposed a historic fine in 2021, leading to tighter restrictions on the e-commerce division. These restrictions weakened Alibaba's competitive position against rivals in the fiercely competitive online retail market.
Secondly, the economic slowdown during the pandemic, along with intermittent lockdowns, had a broad impact on consumer spending across Alibaba's platforms and hindered enterprise spending on its cloud infrastructure services.
To address these challenges, Alibaba made significant strategic moves to streamline its operations. The company restructured its business into six distinct groups, giving each group more autonomy to seek external funding or conduct IPOs. Alibaba plans to spin off its Cloud Intelligence group through an IPO and explore potential IPOs for its logistics and global digital commerce divisions.
These spin-off companies can generate fresh capital, improve overall margins, and expand more rapidly without being closely managed by Alibaba. If successful, they could lead to increased net profits and help alleviate concerns from antitrust regulators.
Looking ahead, the spin-offs initiated by Alibaba have the potential to attract significant investor attention. Alongside this, Alibaba's reported growth is expected to stabilize as the macroeconomic environment improves and its core markets expand. Projections show growth potential in China's e-commerce and cloud computing services markets.
Analysts forecast moderate growth for Alibaba's revenue and net income, driven by continued spin-offs and spending discipline. If Alibaba meets these expectations and maintains a modest growth rate, it could achieve substantial revenue and net income by fiscal 2028.
Considering these factors, even if Alibaba's valuations remain steady, its stock could potentially double in the next few years. However, the emergence of a new bull market and the resolution of delisting concerns could further elevate its valuations. In simple terms, Alibaba's stock could triple or exceed that growth by fiscal 2028.
Alibaba ($NYSE:BABA) Price Action: Breakout Coming?TL;DR: Alibaba's stock price is approaching a crucial juncture as it encounters resistance at the weekly trendline and finds support near $80. With major indices possibly facing a correction, monitoring Alibaba's price movements is crucial for identifying a potential bullish trade opportunity.
In this trading idea, we analyze Alibaba's ( NYSE:BABA ) price action and its breakout potential. The stock's undervalued fundamentals, coupled with resistance at the weekly trendline and historical support near $80, indicate a possible bullish move. Given the likelihood of a broader market correction, monitoring both market conditions and Alibaba's price movements is key.
Alibaba's undervalued fundamentals, including strong growth projections and solid financials, enhance the attractiveness of a bullish trade. The stock's price action encounters resistance at the weekly trendline, while historical support near $80 acts as a reliable floor. A breakout above the trendline could signal a potential bullish trend.
Considering the possibility of a correction phase for major indices, vigilance in monitoring both the broader market and Alibaba's price movements is crucial. Traders should assess sustained price movements above the resistance level for potential bullish entry signals.
Implementing proper risk management, such as setting a stop-loss order below the historical support level, is essential. Staying informed about market conditions, news events, and company-specific developments is necessary to evaluate the ongoing viability of the trade.
Disclaimer: This trading idea is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Conduct independent analysis and exercise due diligence before making trading decisions. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
$Baba gives a new chance to enter right now Here is another chance to open a new positions in NYSE:BABA since we are in a strong demand zone and it is going to react with this price zone
Also it is making a Double bottom in this range same as the range in March
and the target for short term is as shown on the chart as well my final target for long
term is in 165 ranges
BABA is going much Higher based on Wyckoff accumulation count This idea is based on Wyckoff's accumulation schematic. Based on the recent price action, BABA has shown sign of strength when it jumped out of the creek and retested its upper limit 2 times now.
Based on the accumulation count, BABA should move pretty fast to 430-450 once it breaks out of the upper range limit of the accumulation range.
All info is on the chart.
Good luck
BABA @ Long Term SupportOn the 4H Chart, BABA is sitting in the the demand zone at a double bottom retest. Earnings
two weeks ago beat expectations. Fundamentally, China is holding interest rates down and
may even decrease their prime rate. Domestically, chaos continues with more rate increases
possible and the debt ceiling issue impending resolution versus diseaster. I see trading and
investing in foreign based intruments such as BABA , NIO along with ETFs diversified into
China, Europe, Korea Japan and maybe others to be a useful means to diversify risk. I will take
a long trade in BABA because I believe it will rise from its usual bottom.
The most likely scenario on BABAbased on the price pattern has been formed in the last 3 years, the most likely scenario is what is shown by the blue line marked on the chart.
due to the last move of the price and disability to catch the Last High which is marked by the orange line, market structure hasn't changed and downtrend is still continuous.
so i'm expecting a new low and all of the mentiond fact beside the weakend downtrend show me a scenario which is marked on the chart by blue line.
Alibaba to breakdown?Alibaba - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 79.38 (stop at 84.38)
The primary trend remains bullish.
The stock is currently underperforming in its sector.
This is currently an actively traded stock.
Daily signals are bearish.
We are trading at oversold extremes.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
79.48 has been pivotal.
A break of the recent low at 79.48 should result in a further move lower.
Our profit targets will be 67.38 and 65.38
Resistance: 85.00 / 88.50 / 91.43
Support: 82.70 / 79.48 / 75.00
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Analysing Trends, Patterns, and IndicatorsGreetings, fellow traders! I am thrilled to present my analysis and insights on TradingView, where I will be sharing trend analysis, chart patterns, and technical indicators to help you navigate the exciting world of the stock market. It's important to note that I maintain a neutral stance and base my decisions solely on identifying promising opportunities.
As an observer of market trends, my goal is to provide you with comprehensive and visually appealing charts that showcase the potential opportunities I see. Please remember that I am not a financial advisor, and any investment decisions you make should be thoroughly researched and evaluated based on your own risk tolerance and financial goals.
In each analysis, I will walk you through the patterns and indicators I have identified, highlighting key support and resistance levels, trendlines, and other critical technical aspects. My approach is to objectively present the information and allow you to interpret it as you see fit. Whether you choose to go long or short in the stock market is entirely up to you.
My main focus is to share the knowledge and insights I have gained from studying charts and technical analysis. By doing so, I hope to contribute to your trading journey and help you become a more informed and confident trader. It is important to continuously learn and adapt to the ever-changing dynamics of the market.
I invite you to join me on this exciting journey as we explore the fascinating world of trading together. Feel free to provide feedback, ask questions, and share your own perspectives in the comments section. Your engagement and participation are greatly appreciated.
Remember, trading carries risks, and it is essential to conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions. I am here to provide information, but the responsibility lies with each individual trader to make their own choices.
Thank you for taking the time to explore my charts. I hope you find value in the insights I share, and may they contribute to your trading success. Happy trading!
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. The analysis and opinions expressed here are solely based on my observations and should not be considered as financial advice. Please consult with a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
Alibaba's Earnings Report and Future Prospects:Detailed AnalysisFollowing the release of Alibaba's latest earnings report on May 18th, the company's stock encountered a 5% decline. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, which concluded on March 31st, the Chinese e-commerce and cloud leader achieved a 2% year-over-year increase in revenue, reaching 208.2 billion yuan ($30.3 billion). This figure surpassed analysts' expectations by $410 million. Furthermore, Alibaba's adjusted net income experienced a significant rise of 38%, amounting to 27.4 billion yuan ($4.0 billion), or $1.56 per American depositary share (ADS). Additionally, the company surpassed the consensus forecast by $0.21 in terms of adjusted earnings.
For the full fiscal year, Alibaba achieved a 2% growth in revenue and a 4% increase in adjusted earnings per ADS. Despite these positive results, Alibaba's stock price has plummeted more than 70% from its all-time high in October 2020. This situation prompts investors to consider whether Alibaba's stock presents a value play opportunity in the context of China's COVID-19 recovery or if it will remain out of favor in the Chinese tech sector for the foreseeable future.
Alibaba's decline can be attributed to a combination of regulatory, competitive, and macroeconomic factors. In September 2021, the company faced significant regulatory actions when China's antitrust regulators imposed a record-breaking $2.8 billion fine on Alibaba. This penalty required the company to terminate exclusive agreements with merchants and aggressive promotional practices while undergoing scrutiny of past and future investments. These regulatory measures weakened Alibaba's competitive position against rivals such as JD.com and Pinduoduo in the Chinese e-commerce market.
Furthermore, macroeconomic challenges impacted Alibaba's performance. China's economic slowdown and intermittent COVID-related lockdowns had a broad impact on consumer spending, consequently affecting Alibaba's performance. Companies also reduced their spending on Alibaba's cloud services due to the challenging economic conditions. Additionally, Alibaba's cloud business suffered a setback when ByteDance, under international pressure, transitioned the data of TikTok's overseas users from Alibaba Cloud to Oracle's cloud servers in 2021.
In terms of revenue distribution, Alibaba generated 67% of its revenue from its China Commerce segment, which encompasses platforms like Tmall, Taobao, and brick-and-mortar stores. Another 9% of revenue came from Alibaba Cloud, which remains the leading cloud platform in China. It is worth examining the performance of these two core businesses over the past two years.
Although the economic slowdown significantly impacted investor sentiment towards Alibaba, there are positive developments worth noting. Alibaba's operating margin expanded from 8% in fiscal 2022 to 12% in fiscal 2023, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) margin increased from 19% to 20%. These improvements can be attributed to aggressive cost-cutting measures, including a significant reduction in the workforce with approximately 19,000 layoffs throughout 2022.
In March, Alibaba unveiled its future plans, which involve dividing its business into six new groups: Cloud Intelligence, Taobao Tmall Commerce, Local Services, Cainiao Smart Logistics, Global Digital Commerce, and the Digital Media and Entertainment Group. Each group will be led by separate CEOs, and many of them will pursue additional funding or initial public offerings (IPOs).
As an update to these plans, Alibaba announced in its fourth-quarter report that it intends to conduct an initial public offering (IPO) for its entire cloud division. The company plans to distribute the shares from this IPO as a special dividend to its current shareholders. Additionally, Alibaba aims to seek external financing for its global e-commerce division, which includes its overseas and cross-border marketplaces. Furthermore, the company is exploring potential IPOs for Cainiao Smart Logistics and the grocery division of its Taobao Tmall Commerce Group.
It's important to note that Alibaba's restructuring plan does not involve a complete split of the company. Even if the various business groups are spun off into publicly traded companies, Alibaba will retain majority stakes in all of them. The purpose of the restructuring is to enable these groups to pursue external financing independently, thereby reducing the burden on Alibaba's balance sheet. Additionally, it allows each group to make autonomous decisions without concerns about potential impacts on Alibaba's other divisions.
While Alibaba did not provide specific guidance for fiscal 2024, there is potential for its growth to accelerate as China's economy undergoes a post-COVID recovery. The spinoff of Alibaba Cloud has the potential to generate fresh capital and enhance the company's profitability.
Analysts anticipate that Alibaba's revenue and adjusted EBITDA will grow by approximately 10% and 9% respectively in fiscal 2024. However, these estimates should be approached with caution due to existing uncertainties. From a valuation standpoint, Alibaba's stock appears inexpensive, trading at around two times this year's sales and 10 times its adjusted EBITDA. Nevertheless, the stock may continue to face challenges until its revenue growth gains momentum and concerns regarding delisting threats for U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are addressed.
While Alibaba is certainly worth monitoring, it may not be considered an outright bargain at the current moment. Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor the company's growth trajectory and the regulatory environment before making investment decisions.
BABA H&S playing out good so far. BABA H&S playing out well so far.
I will probably be entering more here.
Another catalyst just arrived with Micheal Burry holding over 10% of his portfolio in BABA stocks to hedge the economic situation.
Definitely a good long-term hold here.
Especially if you add onto it the restructuring BABA is going through which experts have predicted will increase stock price from anywhere between 13 - 36% just off that.
I like it.
Thoughts?
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA here:
and bought it here:
Now Analyzing the options chain of BABA Alibaba prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-6-16,
for a premium of approximately $4.45
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.