How To Customize The Look & Feel Of Your ChartA brief tutorial on how to build out a custom chart here on Tradingview.
In this video we'll take a look at changing your theme, customizing your background & candlesticks along with adding relevant information & removing what's not needed from your trading chart.
If you have any questions or comments about anything mentioned in the video please feel free to leave them below.
Akil
Background
SKLZ predictionHope you all have a nice day my companions!
I did this analysis based on fibonacci, volumeprofiling and background news.
Fibonacci shows us a strength resistance around 11.30$, this need to break before we can estimate further price movements.
the volumprofile is confident around 10.70$, this is mostly the target in the next days/weeks - lets see.
Stop loss aorun 8.40$ seems to be a good choice and the risk/reward is pretty confident!
Backround check:
First very important - Since Q2 2021 cash and equivalents of $692.8 million with zero debt!
Since the listing of Skillz (NASDAQ:SLKZ) stock in December 2020, there has hardly been any reason for investors to rejoice. After touching highs of $46.30 in February 2021, SKLZ stock has been in a sustained downtrend.
A row of people wearing matching outfits and headsets play a video game together in a room with blue lighting.
Source: NYCStock / Shutterstock.com
In August 2021, Skillz formed a strategic partnership with Exit Games. With this partnership, developers will be able to utilize the advanced synchronous multiplayer gaming technology. This will help in creation of real-time, synchronous multiplayer games. Therefore, it’s likely that the partnership will help in boosting users and user engagement.
Third, Skillz has also partnered with NFL. The partnership will identify new NFL-branded mobile game(s). As a part of this initiative, 14 games are already in the development phase.
Overall I see SKLZ in a good buy position with small risk.
4 Color Palettes For Charts 🎨📊Hi traders
there are 4 color palettes here that you can use in @TradingView charts.
1. Standard green & red
2. Neon Carrot & Neon Blue
3. white & Neon Blue
4. green body & green border
In future posts, I will publish more palettes in different backgrounds here.
so don't forget to like this post ❤
What more ugly charts will people produce with this functionalitTradingView introduced gradient background.
I wonder what kind of ugly charts people will produce with this functionality...?
TradingView if you want to add something like this please give us a background image so you can brand your chart.
- Url to background image
- width in pixels, height will be calculated based on proportions
- position (x,y) or list (top/left, top/right, bottom/left, bottom/right, center)
- opacity (so you can watermark your charts)
Data on NFP, Brexit and negotiations between US and ChinaData on NFP, Brexit and negotiations between the United States and China
Bank of India lowered the rate yesterday, what provoked the sale of the Indian rupee in the foreign exchange market. So those of our readers who followed yesterday's recommendation to buy USDINR should have made good money.
The US and China continue to generate positive news about progress in trade negotiations. The president of China announced significant progress. But there is no final version of the contract.
Brexit news. From the progress can be noted just the next vote in the Parliament of Great Britain, against the exit without a deal. We look forward to the progress of May, which should consist in requesting a delay from the EU and the duration of this delay. In addition, we observe how the cooperation with the opposition leader Corbyn will end. New idea of May to hold a referendum on the conditions of Brexit still does not find support in the Cabinet of Ministers, but this is another option that needs to be borne in mind. Our trading tactics are unchanged - we buy a pound on descents.
Yesterday’s data from the Eurozone was not pleasing unlike Wednesday. We are talking about statistics on production orders in Germany. The indicator literally fell by 8.4% (y / y), which is the strongest fall since 2009. No wonder the optimism of euro buyers has abruptly subsided.
But today the EURUSD can receive an upward impulse not because of data from the Eurozone, but from the USA. Today will be published one of the most important statistics on the United States for the month - statistics on the labor market. After the failure figures on the NFP last month (+ 20K with the forecast of + 180K), the indicator is expected to be rehabilitated this month (forecast + 175K). If the data again comes out weak, it will be possible to talk about the trend, and it is extremely alarming and negative for the United States. In general, the chances of achieving the forecast indicators are quite high (if only because the forecast corresponds to the monthly average NFP numbers over the last couple of years). Nevertheless, ADP data published on Wednesday, alarming (the smallest number of jobs in 18 months). And the United States recently could not boast with data (retail sales this week are worse than forecasts and in the negative zone, GDP is revised downwards, etc.).
As a result, we are committed to selling the dollar today. But ideally, of course, wait for the numbers on the NFP. Because the data is better than the forecast and may well trigger a growth in demand for the dollar. At the same time, weak data will most likely trigger dollar sales. Recall that the case is not only in the state of the US economy as such, but also in the monetary policy of the Fed. Weak data will be a clear signal not only about the unreasonableness of raising rates in the foreseeable future, but will also signal the Central Bank in favor of lowering the rate to boost economic activity.
Bitcoin is growing, the ruble is falling, May gave upTuesday, compared with Monday, turned out to be much calmer in most financial markets. With the exception of the cryptocurrency market. There was a strong surge of optimism, resulting in a sharp increase in Bitcoin. For some time, the cryptocurrency was even quoted above 5,000, which was not the case since November 2018. The growth rate of Bitcoin reached 23% yesterday.
What about the reasons for growth, analysts shrug. There were no special reasons for this. It just looks like a planned attack, which, in view of the relatively low liquidity and market volume, was crowned with success. Some traders, however, suggest that such a rapid growth of cryptocurrency was associated with an April Fool's joke, according to which the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allowed Bitcoin ETF trading.
We do not recommend encouraging about this and rushing to buy cryptocurrency, because the lack of a proper fundamental base under growth signals in favor of a quick “return”. So we consider yesterday's growth of Bitcoin as a good opportunity for more expensive sales and quick earnings.
Brexit. May gave up and acknowledged that there is no point insisting on the current version of the contract. In the end, she said she wants to develop a new approach to Brexit, together with the leader of the Labor Party, Jeremy Corbyn. Apparently, Theresa May’s new plan will be some combination of her exit agreement and a variant of the customs union, advocated by Corbyn. Recall that the alternative to this is the extension of the Brexit's terms for a long time.
Analysts of the Goldman Sachs Group meanwhile predict a quick resolution of the problems and predict a pound growth. In their opinion, buying pounds can be the most profitable trade among all possible options for trading with currencies of developed countries. Note that we recommend buying the pound for quite some time and we do not plan to change our recommendation.
The ruble continues to be under pressure. The threat of new sanctions does not allow buyers to relax, and the attractiveness of the ruble from the position of "carry-trade" has recently dropped sharply. The reason is the same - an increase in the risk component in the form of new sanctions has sharply reduced the “attractiveness” of the “carry trade” with the ruble. It is much easier in this regard to work with Indian rupee, Mexican peso or Turkish lira.
From yesterday's macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting perhaps the weak data on goods for durable orders in the United States (down 1.6%).
About the oil markets. OPEC reduced oil production by another 295K b / d in March, and the Iranian Minister of Petroleum Industry announced that OPEC + could be extended without any problems in June. Recall, we recommend buying oil on the intraday basis.
May vs Parliament, lira fevers, and sales have dropped off in USMonday was a very busy day for financial markets. It was partly due to the processing of weekend news (May's statement on Brexit, the results of the elections in Turkey), partly with new news stories. But first things first.
Brexit news. May’s attempt to hold the fourth vote in a row failed so far. Monday didn’t bring anything new to the current Brexit scenario.
What do we have today? Postponement Brexit until May 22, the UK is not available. Now the country must either leave the EU on April 12 or request another delay. The second option is basic. But the timing of the delay - an indefinite value. As we warned it could be a year.
However, you should not relax this week. May may still “push” the vote, early parliamentary elections are possible, May’s resignation and much more is possible. So you should be “careful” with the pound.
Very volatile in recent days in pairs with Turkish lira. This time the outcome was the results of the municipal elections in Turkey. Erdogan and his coalition were defeated in elections in 40 out of 81 polling stations (previously controlled by 49 municipalities), and he has lost Ankara and Istanbul. The central bank of Turkey, meanwhile, literally “burns” its foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the lira. According to data published on Friday, Turkey’s reserves have decreased by one third over the past month (!).
Yesterday’s macroeconomic statistics. The most important, perhaps, were the data on retail sales in the United States. They appeared worse than analysts' expectations and showed a decline for the month (-0.2% m / m with a forecast of + 0.2% m / m). That did not bother buyers of the dollar and it continue to strengthen. However, we recommend looking for points for selling dollar on the intraday basis.
Consumer inflation in the Eurozone came out slightly below the expectations of experts. At the same time, the PMI index in the Eurozone production sector was also worse than forecasts and below 50 (47.5, with the forecast of 47.6). So, it is clearly premature to expect monetary policy tightening by the ECB.
Oil continued its growth yesterday. It is worth noting that the first quarter of 2019 was the best for the oil market since 2002 - the asset after it rose by 32%. This once again confirms the current market sentiment. So we continue to recommend looking for points to buy an asset on the intraday basis.
In addition, we are looking for points for buying gold on the intraday basis, selling the dollar and the Russian ruble.
Brexit, inversion of yield curve, new sanctions against RussiaLast week ended with the “accompaniment” of the UK news. Theresa May was still able to vote on her plan to leave the EU. However, it would be better if she did not do this, since she suffered a third defeat. In theory, this should have been the final vote.
Since the UK was unable to reach an agreement last week, the postponement of Brexit until May 22 is not granted. Sum up the country must either leave the EU on April 12 or request another delay. In case of a delay, it is necessary to participate in the European parliamentary elections on May 23. Meanwhile, The European Union is scheduled for an emergency summit on April 10.
On Sunday, the British Prime Minister announced that she would again put her version of the agreement to a vote. This will be the fourth time (!). At the same time, she gave a none-too-subtle hint that if the deputies do not vote “for”, then early parliamentary elections will be called. This week might not be easy to the pound.
Last week, the pound was naturally under pressure. However, in our opinion, the situation continues to evolve as it has been doing recently. There is an absolutely conscious inhibition of the process. Obviously, the UK will ask for a reprieve, and the EU will provide it. Our position is unchanged - the descents of the pound, we continue to use for his purchases and earnings.
There's a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve among the analysts recently. Last week, the yield on two-year US Treasury bonds was equal to the yield on 10-year. This is a rather atypical phenomenon, often a sign of a future recession in the economy. So concern is growing. Against this background, we continue to believe that buying gold on the intraday basis and in the medium term is a good trading idea.
About our trading ideas. Our recommendation on sales of the Russian ruble was just fine on Friday. We have repeatedly noted that the strengthening of the ruble is temporary, because it does not have “the ground”, and the ruble itself is vulnerable. It was confirmed clearly on Friday. New information on US sanctions brought down the ruble.
We are talking about the second set of sanctions related to the Skripal case. According to Bloomberg, the sanctions include measures against the Russian banking sector.
There is no chance to relax this week. A lot of static information led by statistics on the US labor market on Friday. Brexit news, new sanctions against Russia will not allow to relax. We will inform our readers about the biggest events.
US GDP, reaction of the Fed, euro under pressure and BrexitThursday quite unexpectedly turned out to be volatile for financial markets. The data on US GDP for the fourth quarter were revised downwards and in general were worse than expected. The figures from the Eurozone are excellent, but relative to the US GDP this is a failure (the rate of 4.2% of quarterly GDP growth in summer 2018).
Despite the growth of the dollar yesterday, we recommend looking for points for its sales on the intraday basis. Recall that now the economic data from the United States are twofold. On the one hand, the data characterize the economy, and on the other hand, it signals the Fed about what to do with monetary policy. So, the weak data is a signal not only to keep the growth rate at a pause, but even a reason for lowering the rates. And this is definitely against the dollar. Returning to yesterday's dollar growth, we note that this was partly due to the optimistic statements of John C. Williams the president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who said that the likelihood of a recession in the United States is now the same as a year ago.
Brexit is stalled. Parliament is clearly unable to take any decision. On the one hand, “hard” Brexit does not suit parliamentarians, but on the other, any other alternative, too. May’s third vote plan left undefined. The fact is that the vote on the transaction should take place this week, it means today. But there is no certainty that it will take place.
Recall, John Bercow, the speaker of Britain's House of Commons, said that PM cannot bring back deal to parliament without substantial changes. Sum up the pound could not withstand such tension and fell under the pressure of the growing dollar. However, there is no real actual reason for this. So, we recommend looking for points for buying the pound on the intraday basis.
Another “victim” of a dollar was the euro. One of the reasons for the decline was the criticism by the IMF of Eurozone insecurity from a possible economic crisis. Given that the economic data from the Eurozone has recently been getting worse and worse, perhaps there’s nothing really strange about the euro falling.
We still recommend to look for points for buying gold and oil on the intraday basis, selling the Russian ruble and the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Brexit, US-China negotiations and Fed's fearsA vote in the UK Parliament regarding possible Brexit scenarios. There were 8 options for solving the Brexit problem, however no clarity followed. All options were rejected by Parliament. In essence, the initiative is again returning to Theresa May, who went all-in yesterday. She promised to resign if lawmakers vote for her version of the agreement with the EU. We continue to monitor developments and earn on the pound “races”.
Yesterday's dollar growth was related to data on the US trade balance, which unexpectedly showed improvement in its condition. Instead of the expected $ 57.0 billion deficit in December, the surplus of imports over exports was $ 51.1 billion.
Despite this, voices are louder and louder from the United States in favor of easing monetary policy. So Stephen Moore (one of the possible future members of the Fed) in an interview with the New York Times said that the Fed should immediately expand the vector of monetary policy and reduce the rate by 0.5% at least. This, of course, is not the official position of the Fed, but rather Trump’s vision (Moore is his protege). This has to be borne in mind, that the pressure on the Fed will increase with time and any weakness of the US economy will be perceived by the markets as a signal favor of the Fed rate cut and the reason for the sales of the dollar.
Meanwhile the negotiations with China continue. The previous dates were clearly failed (we recall that at the end of March the heads of the United States and China should have been signed the agreement). Trump maintains his view and insists on the perfect deal. Despite the failure to meet the deadlines, the process is underway, and yesterday the negotiations were resumed. So, perhaps, in the coming weeks an agreement would still be reached.
The success of the negotiations between the US and China is a positive signal for the commodity markets, as well as the markets of developing countries. In this light, our recommendations for intraday oil and gold purchases continue to be relevant. Yesterday's data on US oil reserves unexpectedly showed an increase in reserves by 2.8 million barrels (analysts expected a decline by 2.5 million), what a little spoiled the mood of its buyers. But we still do not see a real threat to oil.
About our other trading ideas, we recommend paying attention to buying EURUSD, selling USDCAD, and selling Russian ruble.
The dollar on Friday, Brexit and the Central Bank of the RFThe dollar unexpectedly “decided” to demonstrate the maximum values in a couple of weeks. Among the main victims was the euro. One of the reasons for the sharp decline in EURUSD was the extremely weak data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in Germany.
The PMI index in the manufacturing industry in March fell to its lowest level since 2012, a mark of 44.7 points (the forecast was 48). In addition to the fact that the data came out much worse than the forecast, the problem is that the index values below the 50 indicates a slowdown in business activity. Thus, the largest economy of the Eurozone is confidently slowing down, which cannot but scare both euro buyers and investors in the world.
Paired with the pound, as well as the Japanese yen dollar on Friday failed to grow. That means that the dollar is not as strong and invulnerable as it might seem on Thursday and Friday. Recall that last week the Fed reported that it is not planning to raise rates in 2019. This is a bearish signal for dollar. So, despite the sharp strengthening of the dollar in the last two trading sessions, we continue to look for points for its sales.
Returning to the pound “topic”. This week can be another defining future of the British currency. Jeremy Corbyn the leader of the Labor Party said that on Wednesday, British parliamentarians could vote on Brexit’s plans, which would be an alternative to Theresa May’s deal. Recall that the EU gave May two weeks to take a vote on the deal. We continue to follow what is happening around Brexit. Recall our position - buy pounds on the descents.
The growth of the dollar has hit on oil quotes. Even the data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of oil rigs in the United States again declined did not help. This time is very significant - by 9 units (up to 824). In general, we do not see serious reasons for sales in the oil market yet, therefore we continue to recommend looking for points for asset purchases. We also recommend buying gold.
Another important event on Friday was the announcement of the Central Bank of Russia meeting results. The rate was left unchanged and the Russian ruble was subjected to powerful sales. Given that the overall “tone” of the Central Bank was relatively “hawkish” - the Central Bank is not planning to soften monetary policy in the future.
The statement of Elvira Nabiullina (the head of the Central Bank of Russia) was quite interesting and strange for us that he case of the founder of Baring Vostok Michael Calvey did not affect the Central Bank’s assessment of the investment climate in Russian. Such statements call into question the independence of the Central Bank. Our position remains unchanged - we are looking for points for sales of the Russian ruble.
News background & trading ideas for 20/03/2019Yesterday’s statistics on the UK labor market. The data turned out to be quite good: unemployment rate appears better than forecast (3.9% with a forecast of 4%), employment rate is much better than experts' expectations (+ 222,000 with a forecast of + 120,000), average wages is also higher than expectations (+ 3.4% with a forecast of + 3.2%). So, the "attempt” of the pound to consolidate above 1.33 in a pair with the dollar is quite understandable.
Today will also be quite stressful for the pound, because the UK inflation statistics will be published. Considering that on Thursday the Bank of England should announce its decision on the parameters of monetary policy, this data is particularly important.
We will talk about possible outcomes of the Bank of England meeting and the pound tomorrow but today we will focus on the main event of the week - the announcement of the decision of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee (FOMC). After the beginning of 2019 the Fed put the process of improving process “on pause”, the situation with US monetary policy remains uncertain. The current consensus - in the second half of 2019, the rate will still be raised, but most likely in 2019 this will happen only once.
If earlier such a consensus has been perceived by the markets as a given, and traders have already incorporated this development option into prices, now everything is different. The fact is that there is at least a 25% chance that the rate in 2019 will generally be reduced. And the question of reducing the balance of the Fed remains unclear. Whether it go on or not? Or will the Fed pause it?
In general, today's FOMC meeting may shed light on issues of the markets. The likelihood of the “pigeon” position of the Fed (consists in not raising rates or even reducing them and refusing to reduce the balance of the Fed), which means that the dollar could be well subject to sales this evening. But on the other hand, there are chances that the Fed will confirm plans to raise rates in 2019, and this is good for the dollar. So, you need to carefully follow the decisions and comments of the Fed. Our expectations are in voicing the “dovish” position of the Fed and, accordingly, we are waiting for the dollar to fall.
Our trading tactic today is unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold and oil, sell the dollar and the ruble.
News background & trading ideas for 14/03/2019The international currency market` attention has been captured by Brexit and the pound, again. British lawmakers rejected a no-deal Brexit (voted by 312 to 308 to reject leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement). Consequently, there will be a vote on delaying Brexit.
It is about lack of time for completing new agreement and holding another Brexit vote ( the UK is due to leave on March 29). So, it has to be delayed. They are likely to vote "for" it (it`s the only move they have.), although that should be agreed by the EU. So, the risk factor for the pound is present.
Nevertheless, the most likely scenario for the development of Brexit that it will be transferred and start the entire process all over again. Although the topic of Brexit is already pretty fed up nevertheless, this is an opportunity for further trading on the pound spikes. Recall, our position since September is to buy pounds on declines.
Another our long-time position is selling the Russian ruble. Therefore, we follow the news background and share the most interesting and significant news related to it. The other day, Bloomberg published an interesting study. According to Bloomberg Economics` Russian assets ($750 billion) moved abroad over the past 25 years. This is half the annual RFR budget of the Russian Federation or 3 (three) annual (!) Russian budgets. This fact is the best way to explain why we so persistently recommend selling the Russian ruble on the foreign exchange market.
Yesterday`s events. The US Economic data came out pretty mixed. Demand for durable goods have increased. Industrial inflation was slightly worse than expected. In general, we treat yesterday`s data as rather weak and continue to adhere to the idea of selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
The data on industrial production in the Eurozone pleasantly surprised (+ 1.4% m / m -1.1% y / y, when forecast was + 1.0% m / m -2.1% y / y). Taking into account the fact that the EURUSD pair has surely fixed above the 1.1300, today we recommend its selling.
Lastly, with regard to macroeconomic statistics, Thursday promises to be a relatively calm day, so our other positions have not changed: We buy oil and gold on the intraday basis. We sell USDCAD, but we buy USDJPY.
News background & trading ideas for 13/03/2019The financial market's attention has been captured by the UK Parliament. So, the GBP was highly volatile, seemed like nervously dancing, moving of 100-200 steps up and down. The result is: the British Parliament rejected Brexit deal (391 deputies voted against the agreement, 242 voted in favor).
Today the parliament is going to vote on whether or not to pursue a no-deal Brexit. Chance of no-deal Brexit is almost nil. The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn claimed that no-deal Brexit, which is a threat to the country, should be removed from the today's agenda.
Thus, the outcome of tonight's vote is “against” deal of leaving the EU. So, that what happens next. There is another parliament votes on delaying Brexit. We believe that a large margin will support it.
This scenario was considered by us as the most likely, so our position on the pound is unchanged - we are looking for points for its buying. The big game continues. We voiced the outcome of this game in September 2018. Now, we are just watching its progress. Earning by buying the pound on descents within the day.
Another news is that did not leave the headlines of financial publications and provoked increased volatility in trading is Boeing. Following China, the use of the Boeing 737 Max 8 model aircraft was suspended by a number of countries. We have already noted that you should not panic, but you should use the current panic as an opportunity to earn money. Two planes that fell in half a year are no more than an accident but a series of failures for one of the most popular passenger aircraft models in the world. The company has already issued a statement about updating the software, which potentially could cause an error in flying the plane. We believe that in the near future the situation will be settled entirely and fully, and shares of Boeing will return to their original positions.
About the macroeconomic statistics of the previous day we, first of all, note the US weak inflation data. Consumer price index (CPI) in February + 1.5% y / y, with the forecast + 1.6% y / y. That confirms our recommendations for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
The UK data came out surprisingly positive: industrial production and GDP were significantly higher than analysts' forecast.
In relation to the news the following day in interesting because of macroeconomic statistics. It is primarily interesting with data on orders for durable goods in the USA, as well as industrial production in the Eurozone.
Our trading preferences, besides those already cited above, are the following: we buy oil and gold on the intraday basis, we sell USDCAD, but we buy USDJPY. And do not forget to sell the Russian ruble. Yesterday’s resolution of the European Parliament on excluding Russia from the strategic partners list and recommendations to halt the building of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline (contraries to strategic interests of the EU) provides an excellent reason for this.
News background & trading ideas for 08/03/2019 One of the main events of the previous day was the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting. The rate is unchanged as we expected. Forecasts for economic growth in the Eurozone were sharply lowered (GDP rates are projected at 1.1% in 2019 instead of the previously expected 1.7%). As a result, the ECB has decided to mitigate the monetary policy a little bit more as a reaction to the weak macroeconomic data released recently. It is about launching a new long-term loan program in September. This is the third bank lending program (TLTRO III). Thus, the results of the meeting can be called “dovish” and definitely against the euro.
Exactly that was expected by EURUSD to break down the lower boundary of the range. After taking basic support, our position on the euro has changed. While the pair is below the 1.1300, we are looking for points for selling EURUSD.
In this case, we note that today’s balance of forces on the foreign exchange market may change. Today all the attention of financial markets will be focused on statistics on the US labor market. Moreover, earlier we recommended paying attention to wage growth rates, since this indicator affected the position of the Fed, but now, in case of the pause from the Central Bank, all attention should be paid to the NFP indicator.
Analysts' forecasts generally correspond to the average value of the indicator over the past couple of years, namely 180-190K. We expect weak data. The reasons are both economic and purely statistical. The last 2 times the data was above 300K, and most importantly, almost 80% higher than analysts' forecasts. We just don’t remember that over the last 6-7 years, when the indicator went better by 80% twice in a row. In fact, usually, after a strong deviation from forecasts for the better, the data is much weaker than forecasts next months. And in our case, the excess was two months in a row. That is a kind of statistical anomaly. And anomalies, as is known, cannot exist for a long time.
In addition, we recall that the U.S. economic statistics is not so impressive in recent years. Quite the contrary: retail sales were frankly failing, GDP growth rates were lowered, business activity indices were below forecasts, etc. So, our recommendation for today is to sell the dollar, without waiting for publication of data. The reason is that we expect weak figures on NFP. We continue to find confirmation in favor of our position on sales of the Russian ruble. Starting with lowering the ruble exchange rate forecasts by the Ministry of Economic Development (for 2019, it was lowered almost by 5%), to a sharp increase in buying the US dollar in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of Russia (procurement volume increased by 50% from 12.5 billion rubles to 18.3 billion rubles). This is definitely a bearish signal. Therefore, we recommend to sell the Russian ruble in the medium and long-term directions.
Other positions: while gold is below the 1295, we recommend to sell it and buy the oil on the intraday basis. We do not buy USDJPY today, because there is a high risk of dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (besides, the data on Japan's GDP turned out to be higher than expected).
And we note that the data on the NFP will trigger a rise in volatility on the financial markets. So, receive the data out of positions and open new ones just after the publication of data on them.
News background & trading ideas for 07/03/2019 Wednesday has brought nothing new to the power structure in the financial markets. The Bank of Canada left the bet unchanged. A solution that has already been taken into account by the markets. But the extremely weak data on the Ivey PMI Business Index (50.6 vs. January 54.7) and the general sentiment in the foreign exchange market against the Canadian dollar, which became sharply negative after the publication of weak data on Canada’s GDP last Friday, has triggered another round of sales USDCAD . Nevertheless, we continue to go against the market looking for points for selling USDCAD on the intraday basis with small stops.
As for the US dollar, the data on employment in the private sector from ADP appeared slightly worse than forecasts (+183,000, with the forecast of +190,000). Nothing, but a wake-up call on the eve of Friday data on the NFP, but we will more thoroughly discuss that tomorrow. We also note the growing US trade balance deficit, which amounted to $ 59.8 billion in December. That turned out to be much worse than the previous figure- $ 50.3 billion, and forecasts also (- $ 57.9 billion). In general, this is extremely unpleasant news for the dollar (the deficit reached its maximum in the last 10 years). For now, markets choose to ignore both the US budget deficit and the trade balance deficit. They cannot not always ignore that, but sooner or later the dollar will be billed. But so far, these figures are out of focus of the markets.
In relation to the news the following day is interesting because of the announcement of the results of the ECB session. Surprises are not expected on the markets: No further changes to monetary policy are expected. Also pay attention to the data on the GDP of the Eurozone. The euro is close to the lower boundary of the current fluctuation band, so we believe that this is a good opportunity to buy EURUSD.
Due to the lack of progress in the Brekzit negotiation process, the pound continues to be under pressure. Voting in the UK Parliament is scheduled for the next week. If Teresa May fails again, otherwise the situation will worsen. However, we consider the current situation as part of a big game with a previously known result. So we continue to buy the pound.
And another news interesting to us is the decision of the largest Russian non-state pension fund, which is owned by Sberbank, to reconsider the structure of its investment portfolio. It is about reducing the share of OFZ. This decision is fraught with the sale of OFZ worth tens of billions of US dollars. We recall that OFZs are almost the only source of financial resources for the Russian Federation in conditions with limited access to global financial markets. It is possible that such a decision is an attempt to prepare for possible new sanctions from the United States. The sharp intensification of investigations of money-laundering in Russia is a symptomatic situation on our point of view. As usual, we sell the Russian ruble in the medium and even long-term directions.
While gold is below the 1295, we recommend to sell it on the intraday basis. At the same time, we buy oil (especially since oil reserves in the USA have sharply increased over the week), as well as USDJPY.
News background & trading ideas for 06/03/2019
The Reserve Bank of Australia did not introduce changes in monetary policy. Consequently, we did not observe any significant reaction of the pairs with the Australian dollar. However, today, after the publication of week data on Australia`s GDP, against the background of previous even weaker data, the Australian dollar could not stand it and fell down. Considering the current fundamental background (week macroeconomic data and rumors about a possible reduction in rates), negative sentiment in the market and today`s breakdown of important support around 0.7050, so selling AUDUSD is a fairly good idea.
In terms of the Central banks, we cannot but recall today`s session of the Bank of Canada and the announcement of its results. Surprise are not expected on the market: the rate remains unchanged. So, regardless of the decision of the Central Bank, the dynamics will develop. Our position is still unchanged: this week we are looking for points for buying the Canadian dollar. Accordingly, we encourage to sell USDCAD on the intraday basis and set small stops.
With no satisfaction we continue to keep close track on the painful demolition of analysts' attitudes about Brexit. We recall, again, that the UK will not leave the EU with “ no-deal”. And according to information released by Bloomberg, the leading analysts have realized that just now. At least, the results of the last survey of the 16 leading banks are showing that they estimate the probability of exit “without no deal” at only 9%. At the same time, the majority is inclined to postponement of Brexit date. For the pound, of course, this is a positive sign. Our position has not changed since September - we recommend using any pound reduction for its buying on the intraday basis and in the medium-term opportunities. This week's pound decline is the result of a lack of progress in the current negotiation process. However, negotiations are in progress so the situation might change at any time.
Another our medium and long-term positions for selling the Russian ruble. In this light, we cannot fail to note the information from Bloomberg website. Investors have withdrawn the maximum amount of funds ( since October 8, 2018) from the largest exchange-based fund focused on the Russian stock market earlier in the week. We have already noted that the Barings Vostok case cannot but become a negative factor. That is the actual confirmation.
The National People's Congress has begun in China. Where some details of the tax reform were announced. This is a tax mitigation totaling up to $ 300 billion. Tax reform should stimulate economic activity in the country and break the current trend of slowing economic growth, which have already reached the lowest marks over the last 30 years.
The most memorable of yesterday’s news, it is worth noting, the relatively good figures of retail sales in the European area + 1.3% m / m (in accordance with the forecast), which had no positive effect on euro at all. The EURUSD is storming the lower limit of the medium-term range. We see this as a good opportunity to buy a pair with small stops and relatively good profits.
With no satisfaction we continue to keep close track on the painful demolition of analysts' attitudes about Brexit. We recall, again, that the UK will not leave the EU with “ no-deal”. And according to information released by Bloomberg, the leading analysts have realized that just now. At least, the results of the last survey of the 16 leading banks are showing that they estimate the probability of exit “without no deal” at only 9%. At the same time, the majority is inclined to postponement of Brexit date. For the pound, of course, this is a positive sign. Our position has not changed since September - we recommend using any pound reduction for its buying on the intraday basis and in the medium-term opportunities. This week's pound decline is the result of a lack of progress in the current negotiation process. However, negotiations are in progress so the situation might change at any time.
Another our medium and long-term positions for selling the Russian ruble. In this light, we cannot fail to note the information from Bloomberg website. Investors have withdrawn the maximum amount of funds ( since October 8, 2018) from the largest exchange-based fund focused on the Russian stock market earlier in the week. We have already noted that the Barings Vostok case cannot but become a negative factor. That is the actual confirmation.
The National People's Congress has begun in China. Where some details of the tax reform were announced. This is a tax mitigation totaling up to $ 300 billion. Tax reform should stimulate economic activity in the country and break the current trend of slowing economic growth, which have already reached the lowest marks over the last 30 years.
The most memorable of yesterday’s news, it is worth noting, the relatively good figures of retail sales in the European area + 1.3% m / m (in accordance with the forecast), which had no positive effect on euro at all. The EURUSD is storming the lower limit of the medium-term range. We see this as a good opportunity to buy a pair with small stops and relatively good profits.
Bitcoin - An outlook for the future and some thoughts Hello everybody,
This is my first post and I would like to give you some deeper thoughts on Bitcoin for you to think about and I would love to talk with you guys and share some knowledge.
Generally I am a Scalper, Daytrader mostly in Forex but also in Cryptos and Stocks because what works on one side might work on the other...
But we are not here to think but to act and let the market tell us what to do according to our rules. The tricky part is that we as retail traders have a lack of deeper insights and knowledge which only the big guys got way ahead of News and of us. So lately with Bitcoin we see a similar thing.
At first this was a great new tool for enthusiasts and others. Later more and more people jumped on and well... we all know the bubble popped and a massive downtrend took place. But I want to tell you not what you already know but more thoughts about the background of Bitcoin.
So it seemed like a great opportunity but what now?
Well, actually the answer to this might be a lot deeper than what you would expect.
Bitcoin was the first Cryptocurrency and look at it now. Go to coinmarketcap or others and look how far we´ve come.
But what for? Did you really think Bitcoin would make you rich? Maybe it made some people rich who invested early enough but does this change the world? Look at it now? People must ask themselves if it really is reliable? What about all the other Cryptos, Blockchain technology and so on?
People might think: "Well, maybe the time wasn´t right or maybe Cryptos aren´t ready for the public yet"?
No. There is a reason why all of this happened.
I am really no friend of speculations or some fancy theories but there is clear evidence if you take a deeper look at it that Bitcoin wasn´t made by some mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto who nobody ever saw or worked with. The people who worked with "him" couldn´t proof that and besides that it´s highly questionable how someone could´ve done that without others ever finding out his real identity.
But these are just speculations too. It get´s interesting when you think about something else: What if the NSA or employees of the NSA or other "organisations" have created a workplace and concept in 1995 which is exactly the concept of blockchain and Bitcoin ? What if this was made by the real powerful people in the background to shift society to something new which is even easier to control and which will be loved by society just because people are mostly lazy, wouldn´t get educated about that matter enough and love it because it was easy to use? Don´t people love using their creditcards and max them out? Why? Because it´s easy for them and because nobody cares ?! What if people, even the smartest ones, get convinced that blockchain and other following concepts will be freedom and are anonymous while the real "owners" and "creators" laugh because it was just too easy to convince everyone to use it.
What exactly has changed since the roman empire? Bread and circuses: latin: "panem et circenses"...
It is always about ruling, dominating and dividing society so that they are way too stressed to think and worry about themselves and don´t have enough time and effort to search for the real people who make their lives so difficult. We are highly developed technologically and you could think that it´s harder for them to rule because people would realize today. But it just got easier !!! People don´t use that technology to get freedom in fact they enslave themselves even more. But what has that to do with Bitcoin? Well, I claim that Bitcoin was made by those exact people to initiate a "revolution" to society which leads to something else: No freedom and even easier mass control. If you don´t wanna go on reading from here that´s fine but to trade and to understand the markets you really need to understand the real motives. So Bitcoin skyrocketing into this world happened right after the 2008 financial crisis which is another big theme to talk about for that matter but it is highly suspicious that we still don´t know who created it officially and so on.
People get told that this is for the people and even sceptics get convinced as long as they get high returns and as long as they can use it.
But what about the future? Well, my theory is this:
Bitcoin already made history and that is important because in economics there are two outcomes for this:
Either Bitcoin (the first business of it´s kind) stays and will lead the world in that area or other Cryptos, Ideas (other businesses) and so on will follow and put Bitcoin out of business because they are better. So what we now see is the second outcome already going on. Ripple (XRP) and others making mindblowing progress on a much bigger scale right now. Why? Because banks are joining the team. Why? Because you wouldn´t believe that the big guys just get overrun by some tech guys and acceppt that they no longer control the financial systems? All for freedom for the people and so on?
It´s just highly unrealistic... ok, but what about Bitcoin? Can we still trade it? Where does it go?
Well, of course we can still trade it and it´s even better now because it gets highly manipulated like every big financial asset and that´s predictable because banks need to make money and we can follow the path just like I do for example with Forex and Stocks.
So to be more precise: I am not here to think and give some strange predictions but my guess is this: I trade according to my strategy and I don´t care if Bicoin goes in a circle because I follow the Banks but why should we see another rally to 20000$, or even 50.000$ or 100.000$?
It would not make sense because others are taking over and will scale up and be better for the user and investor in terms of what I described above.
So everything is possible (which is the most important thing in trading to know and respect) but it´s really unrealistic because it´s not in the interest of the big guys. What if Bitcoin was only the first step of that big puzzle and now comes the second piece (step).
Banks now have a foundation to max. out their profits in another area, transactions will be even faster, cheaper for users/investors and the transactions are all online and CAN be tracked down no matter what anybody claims. Imagine the bigger geopolitical strategies and interests of countries like the USA and China. China is already controlling it´s people by mass surveilance and similar things and this is just another tool for them. The USA and it´s agencies are happy when more and more people will use this modern technology because it´s just easy for them to see what they are doing. It´s all online !
I can go on for hours.
So my guess is that we might see a even bigger range. Because a huge range like you have it in the Forex market can be highly manipulated and create huge returns for the banks who are already in trouble. In fact banks are doing better than in 2008 and the next crisis is just ahead of us but other financial areas are already maxed out and they always need to make profit. Another factor is because Bitcoin is still leading the crypto world (even though others get closer) that we will be still able to trade Bitcoin for a long time in the future but that it just gets less interesting and there is nothing that backs Bitcoin so it´s value could go to 0 over time. But that´s a wild guess.
The more realistic guess is still that we will have a huge range which will happen in the next 6 months and is tradeable for a long time until the banks decide that it´s not anymore. Our economy is highly based on creating debt when creating money and this is and always will cause other financial crisis which will just get worse over time. The big guys know that and they mostly profit from it but even they know that this cannot go on forever because people will freak out over time. So they (being smart) create a new system of how we will use money in the future and sell it to us literally as the new freedom and people will literally buy it and everything will be fine until some more 50-100 years and they have another better idea. The show must go on.
My guess for Ripple also is that there won´t be a massive rally in % like with Bitcoin but still a huge possibility for long term investors.
Also take a look at this documentary because it is backed with facts and explains what I just tried to tell you:
www.youtube.com
I hope that helped you. Don´t be too harsh with me and yourself and comment if you want.
Cheers
EuroUsdDaily (weekly background) Target is 61% fibo
weekly trend: bearish
Going down from stong resestance (daily and weekly)
