USDT/THB 1D and 1H analysis$USD/THB Analysis on 1H and 1D Timeframes
1H: It appears that we’ve hit a bottom at $32/THB and have seen a solid bounce. The uptrend is likely to continue after a brief correction.
The MACD is resetting lower and needs some time to reach a bottom.
The RSI is very low, which indicates a potential short-term bounce.
Conclusion: We should stabilize above $33/THB in the short term.
1D: The daily chart presents a more mixed outlook. While it seems we’ve bottomed at $32/THB, the MACD still needs to reset, suggesting the current bounce is temporary. Additionally, the RSI is overbought, which points to a likely correction until November, when a downtrend reversal could be confirmed with a lower low.
Invalidation: If THB/USD falls below $32/THB, it means the bottom is not yet in, and the bounce was a bull trap or fakeout.
Baht
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 51 - JPYTHB - (25th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing JPYTHB, starting from the 2-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Thai Baht Gold has reversed its position to downsideThis aligns with my anticipation of a price retracement from 33,440 . Presently, the bearish trend appears robust, necessitating patience until the price establishes a support level in the vicinity of 33,070/90 for a suitable entry point for buying. Additionally, I'm looking for the price to construct and fulfill an ABCD pattern , meeting my criteria for initiating a position in Thai Baht Gold when it demonstrates strength.
The comeback of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis in near futureAsia will be shaken to the core once again, but that's good news for China, first, for CCP it is an opportunity to step in and replace dollar with yuan, making countries in Asian region to submit to the Yuan power, de-dollarization of Asia. The first crisis was triggered by the handover of HongKong to China, this time it will be takeover of Taiwan by China.
Fractals on USDTHB charts strongly suggests everything that is said above.
What does the DeMarker suggest for the Thai Baht?The US dollar/ Thai baht (USDTHB) has been rallying to the bullish side. Hawkish Fed policy has remained the key source of dollar strength, but one may still wonder if the trend will continue or if it is already oversold and is bound for correction.
A unique indicator used to identify if a trend is oversold or overbought is the DeMarker indicator. The DeMarker, or "DeM" for short, is an oscillator that compares the most recent maximum and minimum prices to the previous period's equivalent prices. This comparison attempts to assess the directional movement of the market. The DeMarker was created as a leading indicator, thus giving traders a possible signal for an imminent trend switch. Unlike the most used oscillator tool, the Relative Strength Index indicator or "RSI," the DeMarker focuses on intra-period highs and lows rather than closing prices.
In the chart, we see the DeMarker indicator highlighting the overbought and oversold conditions. Using the DeMarker indicator, we could check if the level is below 30 and considered oversold, or above 70 and considered overbought. An oversold condition might signal a move to the upside, while the overbought condition is typically a sign that the price may begin to fall.
With the help of a moving average, we could determine the current price trend before taking a position.
For the USDTHB pair, we could see that the price in the daily timeframe is presently above the 200 EMA period, which indicates the USDTHB is on a bullish uptrend.
Looking at the DeMarker indicator, which previously broke above the 70-level last week, suggests that the price is in extremely overbought territories. Since then, the pair has made a pullback and may head towards the 35.5 level to create a higher low in the current uptrend before the DeMarker indicator gives another signal for a potential trend continuation to the upside.
Thai Baht May Outperform as Tourism Slowly Boosts EconomyThe Thai Baht has been cautiously gaining ground against the US Dollar since December despite recent volatility in stock markets.
In fact, USD/THB recently broke under a key rising trendline from early 2021, confirming the breakout. Key support below appears to be the 200-day Simple Moving Average.
Tourism is a key component of Thailand's economy, which has been hampered due to the global pandemic. But, as countries around the world gradually move forward with vaccinations and natural immunity, a gradual comeback in local tourism may boost the economy, perhaps setting the Thai Baht on course to outperform in the medium to long term.
In the event of a turn higher, critical resistance seems to be the 33.861 - 34.000 resistance zone, where breaking above may open the door to resuming the dominant uptrend. Further Covid-19 variants also risk derailing domestic growth expectations.
Clearing the 200-day SMA exposes the November and August lows. In the long run, key below seems to be the 29.718 - 29.842 range.
Long ETC if closes above 2.24, TP: 2.72 ETC's investors await good earnings reports today, if it closes above 2.24, the next target is 2.38, and subsequently 2.72. MACD looks goods, relative strength is quite strong. Good short term moving average upward cross. Chart pattern going according to Fibonacci pattern.
SELL THB/GBP Good opportunity for a SET & FORGET SHORT tradeHaving lived in Thailand for 7 years I frequently watch the Thai Baht exchange rate. Since I left in 2010 and before the THB has strengthened against the GBP. At one time I was getting BAHT to the GBP now its exactly half that.
My contacts in Thailand are telling me Thailand is suffering as a consequence of Covid-19 hitting the tourism sector hard and the economy is poised to fall into recession which may be long. Looks a good time to SELL THB/GBP for a trade that might be active for many months possibly years.
Target hit. Now reversing on a Channel Down. Short.TP = 33.600 hit as the previous 1D Channel Up aggressively broke to the upside (as indicated by the 4H consolidation mentioned on the previous post) and peaked at 34.650. Now a new 1D Channel Down has emerged (RSI = 30.614, MACD = -0.139, Highs/Lows = -0.2244, B/BP = -0.4740) aiming at a Lower Low near the 31.850 support. We are short with TP = 32.000.
USD/THB 1H Chart: Reveal of dominant patternThe previous review of the USD/THB currency exchange rate concentrated on the newly formed less steep bullish pattern. On Tuesday, the pattern was still in force, as the currency exchange rate was declining in the borders of it.
However, something else attracted the attention of Dukascopy Analytics. Namely, a long term, large scale channel up pattern was spotted on the larger time frame charts. It might be possible that in the near future the bounce off from this trend line forces the rate lower and gives it enough strength to break the medium scale ascending pattern.
However, in the short term watch the support of the 55-hour simple moving average, which clearly provided support on Tuesday.
USD/THB Breaks long term SMAsThere is something about the USD/THB pair that you can observe only by changing the time frames of the charts while having set up them to show the 200-period simple moving average.
Namely, the most important is the fact that the currency exchange rate has passed the 200-day SMA, which has kept the pair lower since the start of 2017. In addition, the four hour time frame 200-period simple moving average has recently been broken.
As a result of these moves in a combination with the passing of the weekly R1, the rate began a surge. The surge is set to be paused by a monthly pivot point at 31.30. However, above that there is almost nothing until 31.40.
SGD/THB Daily Update (16/11/17)Probably 24.2 would hold the price.
25 would be a good price to go change your dollar and fly to Thailand for holiday.
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