Bakkt
Bitcoin - Back in BusinessCryptomaniacs crew!
Like a wearying prizefighter, BTC is doggedly remaining in the ring despite appearances of fading energy. Bitcoin, along with the rest of the cryptocurrency market, is currently amidst an unmitigated period of indecision. Then again, you cant really complain about $10K BTC. Especially when global buyers have repeatedly stood their ground to say this is what one bitcoin is worth. As crypto traders, were used to two market modes - !Mooning and !Dumping. As a demographic of traders, cryptomaniacs (as famed technical analyst Peter Brandt calls us) probably have no idea how to handle periods of indecision. Shouldnt we be celebrating these moments of comparatively low volatility? Is this not bitcoins store-of-value argument in proof and deed? Of course, if is true for bitcoin, then its day-to-day moves will be more incremental. That doesnt mean BTC cant or wont achieve the stratospheric values we hope for, but it might not get there as quickly or decisively as everyone wants.
The drop and retest of the $10K marker happened on low volume that failed to challenge support in that area substantively Bitcoin is currently trading at just a touch above $10,200. It fell abruptly to this level after a swift rejection during its pursuit of the $11K zone. BITCOIN found renewed vigor as it unexpectedly jumped from $9,400 up to $10,700. The run-up from $9,600 was particularly vigorous. The latest move confused anyone seeking logic behind it. That attempt, though promising, signaling disinterest around current prices, Even now, volume remains shallow, however, despite this interruption of BTCs march toward the moon, we want to believe it correspond very nicely with the news that VanEck SolidX is offering a limited bitcoin ETF to institutional investors, and ecosystem Crypto Loan Industry.
Bitcoins narrative, which has been lacking in recent weeks, is beginning to regain strength as Bakkt comes into the frame along with an ETF decision looming on the horizon. Bakkts physically-settled bitcoin futures are due to go live on September 23, and shortly after, on October 19, is the SEC final deadline for ruling on the VanEck/SolidX Bitcoin ETF. Of the various proposals delivered to the SEC, the VanEck/SolidX ETF is roundly believed to have the best odds for approval. Market sentiment needs a narrative. Without an objective on the horizon, even if its a source of insecurity (such as the ETF, which hinges on a yes or no answer), sentiment falls away along with interest. To see how much interest has waned since BTC fell away from its parabolic advance, check the Google Trend chart at the bottom of this post.
In the short term we have:
• VanEcks unexpected ETF offering
• Bakkts bitcoin futures live date on the 23rd
• Final ETF decision arriving mid-October
The takeaway is that were entering a precarious time rife with the potential for extreme volatility. Remember, volatility is not just to the downside, but to the upside as well. The possibility of reaching for the $11K-$11.5K region is crystallizing more with every daily close spent above $10.2K. Bitcoins obvious strength over the past couple of days tells us that with only an additional bit of fuel thrown in the fire, we may find ourselves firmly breaking out of the descending triangle in the chart below. A move up towards $11K may be nothing more thana fakee-outt attempt at breaking from the triangle, but banking on that by being short now is more risk than were willing to stomach. After all of these weeks spent sideways and slipping lower, it would be a real shame to watch from the sidelines as BTC retests yearly highs around $14K.
Crypto Loan Industry Hitting All-Time Highs
Crypto-collateralized loans are going from peak to peak as they lock-in value in the crypto-financial ecosystem. Graychain, the worlds first crypto credit bureau, recently released a report detailing the estimated $5 billion crypto loans that have gone out to borrowers up to now. The way crypto collateralized loans work is simple. Say you want to take out a loan – you choose a lender like Celsius, Nexo, Unchained, or the various other companies available, then deposit your crypto on the platform. Youll need to deposit crypto worth roughly 2x the loan amount (i.e., for a loan of $10,000 youll need to deposit $20,000 worth of collateral). Part of the appeal behind crypto loans is that you dont need to worry about credit or employment checks – the only thing that matters is that youve got the crypto to back the loan. Even if you dont, there are some companies, like Salt Lending, who let you get away with riskier loan terms. What all this means for the crypto ecosystem is that more and more people are locking in BTC, ETH, LTC, XRP, BCH, and other leading digital currencies for the duration of a loan term. Loan terms are commonly between 12 and 36 months.
Its not only borrowers who are improving the HODL ratio of crypto. Lenders are enjoying the benefits of loaning their crypto on platforms like ETHLend, Dharma, and Compound at rates between 6–11% annual interest. To loan crypto and accrue interest, the process is roughly the same as borrowing – just lock it into a wallet on the platform of your choice. The emergence of cryptocurrency lending also means that there is less incentive for selling crypto to fiat. Doing so is not only a taxable event, but it also means youll miss out on potential future gains. Instead of selling, cryptocurrency investors now have the option of leveraging their holdings. Doing so not only keeps investors in the game but also holds value where it belongs – on the blockchain.
Altcoins showing surprising resilience
Its no secret that altcoins have been taking a crazy beating as of late. Just when you thought the bottom was in, they vaporize all previous support and head lower. Maybe that goes some way in explaining why, right now, altcoins are showing a decent amount of strength relative to BTC. Realistically, how much lower can they go? The truth is, theres simply no telling where this pit of despair ends. In a way, that is up to the developers behind altcoin projects. Broken promises, endless delays, and the faint sting of countless scams continue to haunt the industry. Nonetheless, development is happening – we just need to be patient. As the king of altcoins, Ethereum is the perfect marker for observing the relative health of the altcoin market as a whole. Ethereum, the worlds #2 digital asset, is similarly seeing price growth as investors regain confidence in its premise as a world computer and defacto public blockchain. Very recently, Microsoft released a developer toolkit for building apps on Ethereum. If that isnt a clear sign of the times, then we dont know what is.
ETHEREUM
(Spotlight on Scaling)
As the blockchain space matures and finds widespread adoption across most industries imaginable, the question of how to scale to the demand has arrived front and center. As smart contract blockchain platforms roll out, theyre teasing their potential transaction per second speed well before discussing other similarly important qualities. The pressure to scale up to the demands of impending blockbuster commercial applications is getting so intense that some blockchains, like Zilliqa, are engaging in psychological battles. ZIL founder Max Kantelia recently stated that “…people are starting to mine Zilliqa, were beginning to see the network starting to grow and grow, so is absolutely within sight, and I would say that it could happen as quickly as the next 12 to 18 months.” Ethereums ETH 2.0 project is promising to bring sharding to the network within the next two years – however, other projects may have the upper hand well before it comes online. Coming to Ethereums rescue is the rise of new second-layer scaling projects like Matic and Celer. Using a second-layer scaling solution takes some of the heat off of Ethereum, as theyll be able to use projects like Matic to scale decentralized applications that want to use the Ethereum network to build and launch. Regardless of who wins the transaction speed war, the way the question of scaling is solved will determine much of whats to come in cryptocurrencys future.
Binance driving indecision?
At bitcoins indecision may be directly tied in with the fear surrounding Binance structural reorganization. Thats a nice way of saying that Binance is on the brink of axing American customers from its global service. With some estimates claiming Americans make up 30% of global crypto trading volume, shunning a financial powerhouse from the majority of assets available on Binance might be a bad thing. Theres really no telling, which also means that cryptos pseudonymity is an effective privacy safeguard. That hasnt stopped a few prominent digital assets from performing strongly in recent days. ATOM, KCS, and even ICX have shown themselves as winners in the short term, but whether theyll go the distance is another matter. Some altcoin moves are based on fundamental developments. ICON, for instance, went live with staking this month, while KuCoin announced a second anniversary BTC sale which requires KCS for participation. Binance move away from US customers is rife with unresolved questions surrounding execution. For instance, how will Binance know who is American and not? Using IP detection will unfairly exclude US-based non-American traders. These questions dont appear to be slowing the Binance.US rollout. Just a few hours ago, Binance.US tweeted that onboarding for American clients is now underway. They also used the hashtag #ThisIsJustTheBeginning when addressing the variety of digital assets available on the exchange. As always, anything Binance does is worth paying close attention to, even if your non-American Binance account is #SAFU.
Either of these scenarios is likely but are by no means exhaustive of what the short term future may hold.
im monitoring the situation closely and will keep you up to date.
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Bitcoin and Cryptos spike lower so what is to come nextCryptocurrencies took a beating overnight with the selloff attributed to a break of 9000 and the launch of the Bakkt Platform (offering physically settled Bitcoin futures unlike CME which settle to cash). The 9000 support zone break had a lot to do with the spike lower as buyers stop levels were targeted. Watch now for either bulls to come under further pressure as the stop run cleared the way for a move down to 7444 or for price to bounce and hold the 9050 zone and engineer a rally. We will see in coming days as the price action builds and hints at a coming move.
Ouch...what is next for Bitcoin and Cryptos after a spike lowerCryptocurrencies took a beating overnight with the selloff attributed to the launch of the Bakkt Platform (offering physically settled Bitcoin futures unlike CME which pay into cash). The 9000 support zone had a lot to do with the spike lower as buyers stop levels were targeted. Watch now for either bulls to come under further pain as the stop run clears the way for a move down to 7444 or for price to bounce and hold the 9130 level and rally hard. We will see in coming days as the price action builds and hints at a coming move.
MOON LITTLE BOY MOON!#BTCUSD Update
Again, boys, again... B U L L I S H
Important Resistance Level/Confirmation of the overall via bula: Between 10220 - 10245
If we break that point, could open the doors to new highs, so, stay tuned to that level on #BITCOIN.
I want to talk a bit about BAKKT.
What is that weird thing?
Created by ICE, this company is considered the world's largest operator in the derivatives market, where futures contracts for energy, currencies, precious metals and other goods are negotiated.
With most of the leading companies in the world economy.
Basically, BAKKT provides bitcoin good legitimacy.
Of course, the price of bitcoin could have an abrupt correction around $ 8,880 - $ 7,281. But I personally won't waste this opportunity, so move those Stop Losses and play with your brain and strong hands.
Bitcoin has been consolidating between $ 11,000 and $ 9,000, forming a symmetrical triangle that suggests that the bullish continuation is ahead. And with the $ 9,500 support line already tested 4 times, the value of Bitcoin will skyrocket after the launch of Bakkt.
IMPORTANT SUPPORTS
1rst: $9.813
2nd: $9.339
Just to say, if btc start the skyrocket, #ETHEREUM will rise THE DOUBLE! (And we are already longing it on x50)
IMPORTANT DAYS!!
Bakkt’s Debut Drops Digital Coin VolumeRecently, the trading of an intercontinental exchange, Bakkt physically supported the futures of bitcoin. The backing is because it has noticed something of a slow start at the introduction.
The first Bakkt/ICE futures contract changed hands at $10,115, minutes after the launch. The number of settlements in the first hour remained at just five overall.
Meanwhile, some online observers believe the slow start is a natural development for regulated futures products.
Su Zhu, CEO and CIO of Singapore-based hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, indicated that most regulated futures contracts see low adoption on the first day.
It has happened merely because not all futures brokers are ready to clear them.
Moreover, a famous analyst Joseph Young also reiterates the sentiment via tweet. He is discussing that volumes will soar as brokers “get ready.”
According to a market analyst, Alex Kruger, it will be interesting to see if trading volumes will pick up during the week ahead.
Way back in December 2017, Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) displayed a volume of $460 million in its first week.
So far, Bakkt futures have registered a volume of just over $280,000.
Bitcoin Plunges on Bakkt Unveiling
The bitcoin market has seen no noticeable uplift from the launch.
The spot price of bitcoin (BTC) declined below $10,000. The sum is very near today’s open trading period.
Several spectators consider Bakkt’s futures as a game-changer. They also said it could bring in more institutional volume.
In August, a Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Scott Melker dubbed Bakkt futures the most bullish growth in the history of bitcoin.
Having said that, it is precisely how stimulating the launch will be to the markets. Meanwhile, crypto in general remains speculative.
Moreover, a rise in trading volumes does not always take the lead to bullish price action.
After all, in establishing short positions, traders can use futures.
bitcoin , whats going to happen?I think we will drop very quickly
catch the nvt uptrend line and go sideways untill 2020.
look at history,
tether manipulation brought this last run to 13k.
the stage is set for bitcoin to drop and repeat !!
buyers are burnt out, sellers are ready to start again at the bottom
and Bakkt will want btc cheaper, why the low volume in bakkt?
bitcoins to expensive, we are in a decending triangle, whos going to gamble on that!!
BTCUSD: Descending Triangle Quick Short To SupportQuick short from the 4hr descending triangle breakdown at $9849 when it comes around again for the third time and anticipated today or tomorrow, probably after a final rejection from $10k. Target is the base of the support area at $9275 with a tight stop loss at $10,101 (2.56%), probably initially to liquidate some overleveraged longs. All short and long-term moving averages are trending south, in bearish formation (20,50,100,200) with the RSI forming bearish divergence while getting rejected from neutral territory at 40.
Risk reward is 2.28.
My Prediction for the next 3 days.As we all know, the next futures CBOE will be expiring on the 27th of September. When the last futures expired (March 13th), We slowly started to see a rise in Bitcoin. Until, the 31st which started this bull run by 1 whale buying a copious amount of bitcoin. Suspicious. Anyways, I expect 1 of 2 things to happen. Either we dump to the abyss. and I mean low. That way, whales can make money (FIAT) by shorting btc like crazy, then picking BTC up for the cheap price. Then they long it to hell with BAKKT. The second option is, we stay within this triangle. Then, once the contract ends, we start to move towards the upside. The start of the crazy bull fever.
We saw how that diagnoal trend line supported us on this daily, I am guessing it will support us until the 27th. Thus, if you are a SCALPER, we are at the bottom of the triangle, meaning, if the whales want us to STAY in the triangle, the only way from here is up.
:)
Please let me know what you think of this analysis. What are your thoughts, specifically in relation to scalping these next few days.
With Kind Regards,
Sheng
Wow BTC volatilityBTC had a bearish chart for many past days and today it was even worse. But that wick down and up, that covered 600 USD in 30 minutes makes me think, that there might be a reversal of trend. More of a hope, as volume on bigger timeframe is still low and not enough to call the reversal. We need day chart to show some volume pump - then it will be it. After all, nobody promised BAKKT will make the change in the first hour it opens.
its not all doom and gloomif we break downwards we are low on RSI and not in overbought
imo i think we need to test over sold for a few weeks to bring back strong bulls.
Twitter and youtubers those who have over hyped BAKKT must be scratching their heads?, its just another futures platform, yes settled in BTC but that BTC needs to be sold.
i suppose we will soon see if the bakkt members will short or long,
short term, shakey,
long term looking ok
bitcoins biggest problem is since 2017 bull, its still hard for the man on the street to buy btc with out high fees, high exchange fees and confusing wallets etc
everyones only intrested in institutions , great but if every man on earth could buy just 10 dollars of bitcoin rather than a hand full of institutions !!!! think about it and tell pomp about it
All good things are hidden ... not all hope is lost for bulls!Heya my dear thriving community of hustlers and busters, traders and shillers, movers and shakers hope you are having a tremendous freaki'n day!
I know I have been a bit of a beartard for the last 3 weeks and there have been very well justified reasons for it, however, I can not ignore the clear bullish signal which comes with the high timeframes.
As you can see, there is a massive hidden bullish divergence formed on the weekly timeframe hinting the continuation of the bull run that brought us to near 14K levels.
Obviously there is no guarantee what so ever that this divergence will play out, but it is still something to keep our minds on.
Bitcoin likes to play on signs that has been right in front of our noses the whole time. aaand this divergence has been right in front of our noses since early June, it makes perfect sense for it to play out now instead of weeks later.
If you like my crazy rambling and in-depth updates of the market, please subscribe to my profile and like the post.
Have a great trading day and stay safe!
Let's hope that we don't have to place shorts in upcoming days Bakkt to Bakkt :)
Cheers
Archie
Where are all the fractals?Hello, I do not understand. I saw every day a new fractal showing that the price of ponzicoin would go up.
But now, that we are in a situation exactly similar to Dec 2017, there are no fractal. That does not seem very objective...
It's almost depressing, that the human gene pool contains "this".
BTC went up up up until CME futures opened and then down down down.
The top was the exact day when CME BTC futures were released.
BTC hodlers are repeating the same thing. Exact same scenario.
They are convinced BTC will go to a mighty bull market because of ICE futures. Emmm ok?
I do not think I am being unfair when I say they are thick headed.
Of course, I see these clowns repeat "Bakkt bakkt" I got a feeling that they do not even know what it is.
The futures market is in a duopoly, CME is the biggest one, ICE the other one.
CME GROUP INC ==> 73.7 Billion Market cap. (Chicago Mercantile Exchange). Big on indices, fx, metals, energy futures. Also big on certain agri (Corn Wheat Soybean).
ICE GROUP INC ==> 50.95 Billion Market cap. (INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE INC). Afaik their only big futures are the "other" agri Sugar 11, Cotton, Cocoa, Coffee.
(Actually the 2nd biggest futures exchange in the world is the National Stock Exchange of India and ICE is 3rd, CBOE Holdings are 4rth far behind - 12B mcap - they opened BTC futures the 7 dec 2017).
The ICE is known mostly for the New York Stock Exchange.
The CBOE is bigger on options I think.
The big big futures exchange is the CME.
They have a great site with a ton of content, their products work very well.
I expect ICE futures to do less volume than the CME past the potential hype of the first days, even with all the marketing they did.
BTC might pump short term (good short entry on a double top at 14k) but idk the world has their eyes on Iran and oil lmao no one important will care about your magical internet beans.
I expect the launch to be a complete failure and after that nice flop the ICE will remove BTC futures just like the CBOE did, and only CME will remain.
Just like with all US treasury bonds.
And with all US indices.
And with Oil and NatGas.
And with Gold and Silver.
And with Grains.
And with Copper.
Hehe.
Here is the CME site: www.cmegroup.com
They have daily volumes of about $250 million on BTC (past month).
Coinbase does about $100 million, Bitstamp about $65 million, Kraken $50 million (not counting the euro part that is about as big).
As a comparison, (WT Sweet Light) Crude Oil futures have volumes typically of about 1 to 1.5 million futures a day on the CME, in dollar this means, since the price of Oil is and has been around $60 - 60 million. Nah just kidding 1 future = 1000 barrels, so it's 60 billions. Idk how much brent does, they are mainly traded via the ICE, their site... I just can't... They do 20 times less I think.
E-mini S&P futures do about 2 million contracts volume => 300 billion :D
Gold futures make about $75 billion
10Y Treasury Notes ~ $350 billion I think (and volume oscillates a ton). 1400 times more.
Natural Gas (Henry Hub) that is half as volatile as BTC (sometimes more) does ~$13 billion (not counting options and other products). 50 times more.
Even Grain no one ever talks about that have 3 followers does way more than 1 million reddit subs biggest community than all stocks put together Bitcoin.
These days Corn is doing ~5 billion+ Wheat ~2.5 billion Soybean ~9 billion. Rekt.
And the CME is putting crypto forward. And they are the biggest. Big money is not stepping in. Big money still thinks it is a ponzi.
No one that knows what they are doing cares about magical internet beans (other than to make fun of it).
Even with the immense amount of hype and the massive fanbase around Bitcoin, BTC futures do tiny volumes compared to obscure products such as "RBOB Gasoline" (50 times more volume than BTC, what is this even? xd), "Soybean Oil futures" (even this does 10 times BTC) or "Live cattle" (20 times).
Even Mont Belvieu LDH Propane (OPIS) Futures does more than BTC :D Does anyone know what this thing even is? LOL!
NY Harbor ULSD? I have not a clue what this is, but they have 60 times the volume of giga hype every one talks about it BTC.
Single stocks during the dot com bubble had more volume than BTC as we know anyway.
Keep praying that suddenly big money movers are going to get interested after ignoring your ponzi scheme for years, just because the ICE offers a new way to speculate on it, and gave it its own name, and did alot of marketting. Let me quote Nelson from the Simpsons: Haha!
Bitcoin doesn't need a bail out!Funny how there's going to be "repo" or "QE" until Oct 10th?
Anyway, it's ironic how Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud, meanwhile 2 or 3 of his employees have just been charged under the RICO by the DOJ!
Penalty total since 2000: $34,478,944,885!
The roughly 52 Billion they just received during this repo is nearly 22% the market cap of JPM, and what is that for anyway, the future fines about to given by the DOJ?
That's laughable!
I wonder if China & Russia have Irans Bakkt? Crazy times we live in with the Halving coming up, glta! Whose going to rekt city?
#BitcoinForPresident
XBT. One more week in flat?Today price back in symmetrical triangle and flat accumulation zone.
All these moves are chop-chop to collect liquidity.
Big capital slowly and partially flows into Alts.
When the second impulse to $10.3k occured - Alts dropped.
Smart money bought support - Stupid Money sold support and bought BTC.
Double trouble? - Yes.
Now these passengers hoping for BTC to pump a lot, but it will still in flat.
Alts should start jumping today again if volatility will not hit XBT.
Also, we expect fakeout of Trendline (11.3k and 11.8k still on table as bulltrap) before drop to $8k.
---
Regarding BAKKT Launch news.
We do not recommend to trade in this day.
We don't expect big drop such as big pump.
News are already in price, and once BAKKT started to accept Deposits - it was already a Launch phase.
Spinner at this day will look great. 2-4% dump with fast bought up to cut Long/Short Stops and back to flat accumulation.
Trade safe.