A Basic Guide to Trading a Balanced Volume ProfileBasic Principles of Trading a Balanced Node
Rule 1: Unless the price breaks and holds Value High or Value Low we should expect buyers and sellers to maintain the current balance.
Rule 2: If we break and re-bid from Period Value High we should treat that level as supportive until it is reclaimed ( buy-side acceptance outside of balance)
Rule 3: If we break and push away from Period Value Low we should treat that level as resistance on retest until it is reclaimed (sell-side acceptance outside of balance)
Rule 4: If we recover Value Low and it becomes supportive we look for our Period POC and Period Value High as our targets above ( return to balance)
Rule 5: If we fail to hold Period Value High and sellers make it resistance on re-offer we look for our Period POC and Period Value Low as targets (return to balance)
Balance between Value Low and Value High will remain between buyers & sellers until we see a value shift and acceptance above/below on one of our "edges".
Utilizing these rules we can look for opportunities around our Value Edges and have a better understanding how to trade around them.
Balance
1INCHUSDT.P 1H long trade at resistance5M chart allowed to enter early
Aggressive trend trade 8R
- short impulse
+ resistance level
+ biggest level T1
+ biggest level 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ below first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop
1 to take profit (can extend to 1 to 2 of 1H if closes volumed Sp)
1H chart situation
+ long balance
+ resistance level
- expanding ICE level
1D chart context
+ long impulse
+ significant bar level
⚖️ Auction Market Theory📍Auction Market Theory, developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer and expanded upon by Jim Dalton in his book Mind Over Markets, explains how financial markets function as auctions where buyers and sellers interact. The theory focuses on two main objectives: facilitating trade through a two-way auction process and determining the fair value of assets. Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery play a crucial role in this process. Auction Market Theory is represented using tools like Market or Volume Profile, which utilize bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean.
🔷 In a balanced market , buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value. This leads to lower volatility and prices that remain relatively stable, resulting in a ranging market. The fair value can be recognized using the Market or Volume profile, which appears as a Gaussian bell-shaped curve. However, financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely. New information, whether fundamental or technical, causes markets to move away from fair value and transition into a different environment.
🔷 Imbalance refers to the opposite of balance, where there is a disagreement about fair value. In this scenario, one side of market participants becomes more aggressive, leading to a trending market. Typically, markets tend to trend only about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time. When the market is within the value range, it is more likely to remain in balance and explore within that range. However, in the case of an imbalance, the market often drifts higher or lower until it reaches a stop, typically within a previous value area.
💥Key Takeaways:
🔸 Auction Market Theory explains how financial markets function as auctions, focusing on facilitating trade and determining fair value.
🔸 Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery are essential in the Auction Market Theory process.
🔸 Tools like Market or Volume Profile use bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean.
🔸 In a balanced market, buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value, leading to lower volatility and a ranging market.
🔸 Financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely, as new information causes them to move away from fair value and transition into different environments.
🔸 Imbalance occurs when there is disagreement about fair value, leading to a trending market.
🔸 Markets tend to trend about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time.
🔸 When the market is within the value range, it is likely to remain in balance and explore within that range.
🔸 Imbalanced markets often drift higher or lower until they reach a stop, usually within a previous value area.
👤 @AlgoBuddy
📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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US Government Bonds 10YR Yield LONGUS Government Bonds 10YR Yield. Time-frame = 1 month. In 2005-2007 (red circle) - a double top was built (determined automatically by my script) from which the downward movement began for further accumulation. 2009-2019 (green rectangle) - long-term accumulation (balance). 2019-2022 (blue circle) - responsive activity (long entry by key players). 2022-2023 long to the upper limit of the balance. The last 3 months - a retest to one of the key balance levels. 2023 - expect further upward movement towards the 5.000% area (towards the upper border of the double top)
Balance point - BTCCross point for the EMA and the possibility that the BTC price can exactly touch the cross at the moment of contact.
Same crossing point with regards to ADX, while for RSI one could see an inflection point at 50 points as a descent looking for a rebound to 30 points.
The situation has never been so balanced between bears and bulls.
E-MINI S&P500'S SEARCH FOR VALUE15TH OF AUGUST – 1ST ENTRY (ES Futures Contract)
I started to build my swing position by shorting the market at 4275.00. At the moment I’m risking 0.25%. I’m 25 points away from my entry targets. The reasons for an early entry are:
1. Overall weak Market Structure (last 2 month-rally).
2. Weak liquidity on 4 Consecutive Days. This is suggesting me that we might be experiencing a temporary bullish hype by weak hand traders.
3. Gradual build up of my trade. A market that trades against me and goes to 4300 and beyond will allow me to add more size and complete the trade, while improving my average price of entry.
NOTES
4100 – 4150 = it is logical for the market to trade in brackets around a high-volume area, which in this case it was also the fairest price of the instrument (VPOC). The most important aspect of monitoring the VPOC (volume point of control) or fairest price level is the ability to visualise the potential change or no change in the fairest price level. On the 10th of August the market breaks away in an attempt to raise the perceived value of the S&P500.
11th of August – Perfect example of how the markets lie and trading what you see can be dangerous. The daily candle closed as a shooting star and trapped many traders into weak positions making them think it was a possible turning point. I was suspicious due to weak liquidity been put into the market and various volume anomalies. On the next day we have the shooting start violation and therefore a market confirming the fact that we didn’t have any real selling pressure that day, but rather a liquidation due to profit taking of weak hands traders.
4300 – 4365 = This is the area of potential entries. The value of the instrument is out of balance once again, the market can now be attracted to this area where we have significant low volume nodes. Low volume nodes represent past aggressive auctions (aggressive sellers here) which take the market out of fair value. They tend to be rebalanced by the market at some point, just like any other weak/inefficient area. At 4300 we also have obvious/weak highs. Any buying that took place above the fairest price level (VPOC) saw buyers buying price above the fairest price. When this is occurring traders are taking above-average risk , when I trade I like to constantly think in terms of odds. Any selling, relative to the fairest price level, would be considered selling short-in-the-hole or selling price below value. In other words, by going out of balance now (breaking away from the VPOC) we are testing the best short locations. This becomes particularly powerful when contextualised in a particular scenario (like this case) and compared with volume in relation to time and price, market structure and other relevant clues.
For more explanations, please view my previous post, "A Dive Into My Swing Trading Approach (+setup)".
Sessions Future/Past Initial BalanceGood afternoon all,
This video is a trailer to a script that I will soon be publishing.
The script allows you to display:
1. Future days of the week vertical lines.
2. Future session opening vertical lines (plus additional future lines, for if you notice a trend at a certain time).
3. Session boxes, boxes are built using the high and low of a user configurable time.
4. Session Initial Balance or Brinks boxes.
5. Extendable function for the current and previous Initial Balance/Brinks box.
6. User customizable settings: gradient of box background / box outline options.
This indicator will be released in Dec 21, I will release early if the community show interest for early release.
Thank you for your time and support.
Tesla. /////....../////
Disclaimer/
On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up.
The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses.
Virgin Galactic.We'll probably see them on the news.Virgin Galactic.
Disclaimer/
On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% move up.
The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting the waves for them is often confusing and does not have much practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses.
Virgin Galactic is an American company that is part of the Virgin Group and plans to organize tourist suborbital space flights and launches of small artificial satellites. In the future, the company plans to offer its customers orbital flights. Virgin Group is an international conglomerate of companies founded by British businessman Richard Branson.
BTC - SHIB - ETH - Daily Review Hourly head and shoulders forming on bitcoin. TP would be in the 37800 range at structure.
ETH - Loving the sideways movement allowing the same pips twice in two days!
Shib - Would expect a solidification of the bottom we've had and sentiment to follow with the two legacy coins.
Keep Stacking It
How you do one thing is how you do everything.
-Harmonic Puma
BTC-ETH-SHIB-FEG POSITIONING BEFORE THE BREAKOUTToday is a ride day. If you've been positioned. Lets ride it out.
If not. We're breaking the diagonal upwards resistance trend line on BTC & ETH (similar Charts)
Shib still has some room to oscilate within the upside down triangle.
Feg maybe finding a second solid bottom.
Thanks for jamming. More info on the development of these positions in the last few video updates!
happy trading & keep stacking it
How you do one thing, is how you do everything.
-Harmonic Puma
ETH - FEG - SHIB - Balance Books & PositioningToday is a reiteration of positioning. Balance points in the structure of the market. With ETH being the focus of todays video.
Typically, I try to stay with charting only, but I did find a token that I thought was worth mentioning. Fundamental Analysis on this USE case is VERY cool.
In this one I do talk about my choice of meme token as my "experimental money" being the SHIB token....
So take this mornings episode with a bit of salt. I like shib and feg for the experiments. ETH BTC still have my heart lol
I have submitted for the BETA Streamer live on trading view and have submitted a ticket for pushing it through faster (i have been waiting weeks for approval)
In the mean time, I have begun setting up a youtube channel so that I can start hosting live streams for technical analysis related information.
My goal is within the next 7 days have links setup to follow for that.
I would expect a push down. But overall sentiment feels bullish on the chart. Positioning is still key so wait for those entries. if its green. no buy.
Not financial advice.
BUT
Keep Stacking It!
Peace!
Balancer / BitcoinHello!
Balancer is showing some strenght against Bitcoin, like Bnb and Eth right now.
-Possible move close to 40%
-Risk/Reward around 7
What I want to see is that marked resistance turned to support. If we get a pullback to it, it is possible to get a splendig entry with even bettter R/R
If you like my analysis give a like!
AND
If you do take trades, always use stop loss. Otherwise you will get your ass burned!
-Jebu