NYSE:SMR is approaching a potential entry point for the start of a DCA strategy for a long term hold. SUMMARY Wait to see where the price moves. Using a combination of RSI reaching 30 and the price falling to (with a 3 day filter) around $4 or if the price continues to fall then around $2 (another 3 day filter at this level too), begin entry with a DCA...
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Update ⚠️DECREASE of $47.1 billion week ending Jan 31st⚠️ ▫️ $1.34 Trillion Reduction since Apr 2022 ▫️ We are $0.436T away from the long term trend line (Red Line). The current trajectory means we could reach this level by Sept 2024
DXY D1 - Relief Rally The dollar index has undergone a significant retreat, showcasing a robust decline from the recent swing low to the swing high. It elegantly touched the 618 region, displaying a compelling wick, and gracefully closed just above our crucial 103.000 support level. Anticipating a potential rebound from this fortifying support zone, we may...
The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W. As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while...
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Snapshot - Between the 11 - 18th Sept 2023 we had the Largest one week decline of approx. $74.7 billion since the balance sheet reduction started in April 2022 - We are currently approx. $50 billion away from a 1 trillion reduction 👀 We are in for an interesting Quarter end to the 2023 year, that is to say the least....
In the lead up to the 1920s, the US Federal Reserve significantly increased its balance sheet by almost nine times, starting from 700 Million Dollars in December 1916 to 6.6 Billion Dollars by January 1920. This move was presumably to fund the US's entry into the First World War, which led to an increased demand for US government debt globally and loose lending...
Wave structures on these Economic Indexes tend to play out fairly often, such as in the case for Various CPI and Interest Rate Charts which can bee seen in the Related Ideas tab below. With that in mind, I now turn to The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet; and when I look at the Balance Sheet what I see is that since the Inception of this chart, it has traded within...
The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend...
This is an update to a chart I posted last September Trading View updated the scale for ON RR so I'm reposting the idea so we can watch the rise/fall in playback. Wall Street banks are now drinking the market liquidity cool-aid. I wonder which one will be the first to implode this time. 2006-08 was a time of idiots without Money 2020-22 will be the time of...
I have to re-visit this. I am struggling to get 2 charts on the screen. Sorry for the dealy. If the sell-off on Dow Jones, or the rally on Gold have anything to do with tapering the Central Banks' Balance sheets, they have a lot to talk about in Davos. Notice the Difference between the M3 and Central Banks' Balances. BOTH IS RELATIVE AND REAL...
Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode,...
FOMC FED Net Liquidity Central Bank Balance Sheets: United States China Japan Italy DXY EURUSD CPI PMI
Do you think is it good idea to evaluate Gold price movements with these data? I strongly believe one thing for sure which is obvious; there are so many dollars printed...
Yeah at this stage we're very very very 2013-2015 like here . One thing that could be massive is total inflation is for the first time negtive - month still has to close. Beter someting than nothing. Keep in mind we've started the bottoming process per the 2013 cycle - which gives us 200ish days until arround March to complete this. - Softlandish?
Macro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and...
Given the somewhat bullish news from the Fed today, a rate hike of only 50 basis points and no larger hikes in the near future, things seem to be looking up. The news gave way to a major rally midday, erasing losses since- well, last Monday. However, it should be noted that the fed slipped in a dirty curveball: in June it will start a multi-trillion dollar...
Seems to exists a relation between those two. In the long run, gold price seems to follow the expansion movements of the FED. In 08, prior to the GFC, the size of the BS was 800 times bigger than the price of a gold ounce. In 2012, it was 1,800 times bigger than the ounce of gold. In both cases, the FED's BS was bigger than the ounce of gold by a factor that...
Wanted to show how Gold price performs during recessions. We are way out of scheme right now.