BankNifty : Lets Buy Some Banks ! Simple Trade setups are the best one's. Instead of getting stuck with some complex trading systems, the simpler the better I believe.Today morning, first I looked at Nifty, didn't feel quite good about it, its completely ranging,so shifted focus on Banks..yea we are gonna buy Banks like Billionare's :).Lets keep funny things aside, here we are looking @ Banknifty and it just broke out of rectangle pattern ( our favorite pattern for past 3 weeks..Love it ! ).
So if there is any pullback to check the resistance-turned-support area 19000's, we will be ready to get long in Banknifty. That's the simple setup we are looking at. We can also count elliott waves starting from 18450's, and wave 3 getting completed around 161.8% of Wave 1. Wait friends, nothing rosy as it looks, bcos 161.8% n wave 3 doesn't imply it will return for sure,so that we all can go short. If we have to trade wave 3 to 4, look for other valid bearish confirmations & enter, bcos its possible that banknifty may decide to reverse @ 2.0 or 2.24 fib extensions.
If all goes fine and short plan worked, book profits around 19000's (+/- 0.5 %) and initiate long positions around our marked entry zone in Banknifty. We can call it as pullback entry or based on waves or someother technical analysis, all are good n valid. It's myth that one method is better than other. So if we take long positions @ 19000 in banknifty we are aiming around 700pts, only if everything goes as we have analysed. Yeah ! Let's go n Buy some Banks :)
Feel free to leave comments to discuss/ Hit Likes if you agree... Happy Trading !
To follow Me on Indian version of Tradingview : in.tradingview.com
BANK
Long term set upThis has all the right indicates set up for a very night bull move. It is coming off the bottom of 12.33 where it recently tested and held very strong with a lot of volume; this time no different, a lot of volume and the same exact price range. The MACD is looking very good as well with a very low entry. I'm about to enter a small position at 12.8 and wait until Monday and see what happens. If this does go higher Monday then we have a very good position on our hands!
Bank Nifty Intraweek Scalp LongFirst of all thank you to tradingview for intraday Banknifty charting
BankNifty has a history of making very violent corrections when it finds a trendline and right now we have banknifty at a 1 month strong support trendline in a crucial demand zone. In addition the selling from 16k+ levels made the last week the largest volume week of the past few years : economictimes.indiatimes.com
I expect it to retrace to at least 16.1. If it breaks above 16.1 then 17k will be tested as final tp - I have mentioned this in my first banknifty idea as well. Indian market is starting to slowly move away from the permabull sentiment however the market is still going to react well even though the cut wasn't what was expected in my opinion.
The second scenario is that Banknifty breaks down from the consolidation pattern and markets begin dumping quicker than I expected.
15.85k banknifty and the futidex bnifty can go to 16k
Banknifty 3 YR Long Term Consolidation Breakdown ShortHello
This is an update from my BANKNIFTY Long call from 13700
and my BANKNIFTY short call which is at a breakeven point. The first scenario I had foreseen was a reversal at this lvl. The second was retrace to 17k and then back down. Now I notice a 3y long pattern of consolidation that has been in development ever since BANKNIFTY rallied from 8k to a 200%+ high of 20k. The banking index is looking weak as India continues to cut rates inorder to increase budget by decreasing payments on debt.
In the short term I think that the second possibility of 17k and back down is possible as the price action has been extremely bullish from 13k ranges and shows indications of wanting to test the top of the consolidation triangle at around 16.7k.
Best of luck
BANKNIFTY SHORTThis is a revision of my prv BANKNIFTY chart "https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BANKNIFTY/Qr1NFlnT-Bank-Nifty-Oversold/". I explicitly stated "Oversold" as I viewed the retrace that I had called till 16k as just a retrace and not any strong sign of resurgence in the banking sector. The channel has proved to be strong. 1st Tp 13.2k 2nd Tp 12.3k.
Upside potential for Rusell 2000 Index from Past PerformanceRecovery in U.S. show up slower than expecting, seeing from Jobless Claim report increased to 276,000 against analysis forecast median of 263,250 jobs which is a greater numbers than Feb 2016 report. However the incremental is still below 300,000 which is an acceptable rate. Counting from Jackson Hole Fed's meeting last week statement was given clear of timeline of interest rate increase in year 2017 which will be monitored every quarter and rate holding in Apr to June 2016 sending U.S. dollar index down towards end of statement. This resulting of sending stock market upwards DJIA approaching last height where it went before collapsing last round of trading. NASDAQ index has been booming upwards slope as well leaving where Biotech index laggard.
The Russell 2000 Index follows the trend if you look at the graph presenting from year 2000 to year 2016 highest record, at the moment of trading today vs last height giving 16.38% upside for trading area but why Russell 2000 index would recovery better than DJIA or those big caps. It is because the small caps index has more volatility and potential of company growth better than big caps. The company are new to the market seeing high potential of expanding market share and it normally not reacting plunged from market sentiment.
National BankShares on the wedge down pattern.The price of the shares of National BankShares has formed the wedge down pattern, the price now break the pattern and looks like it will continue to rise. It may be a good oprotunidade to trade some shares of NKSH.
My sugestion:
Entry point: 34.25
Stop loss: 31.39
Profit target: 39.93
Bank Nifty Oversold BankNifty has taken a near 20% hit since the beginning of this year due to bearish economic outlook as well as a massive burden of 7 lakh crore + NPA. The budget has been published and the government has pledged to recapitalize PSUs by a measly 25k crore for now. I believe that the banking sector is yet to see its real lows however for the time being a stabilization in sentiment and a retrace from the fear induced overselling should push banknifty closer to the 15.5k range before it makes its next leg down. There is also a possibility that it can break out of this downwards channel and test supply zone at 17k depending on sentiment in the coming months. Within 2 years I expect banknifty to reach lows well below 10k.
First TP 14.8. Second TP 15.5. Third TP 17k. SL @ 12.6
Bank Of Baroda LongAs RBI is facing tremendous pressure to bail out PS/Corporate banks I believe that we will slowly begin to see a short term correction in the bank sector. I expected BOB to either break out and test supply zone at 190 before potentially making another leg up. The second scenario is that the bearish sentiment forces BOB to test demand zone at 100-120 before it continues to test the supply zone. This is big short term reversal point for BANKNIFTY. RR at this level is high.
FED POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR EURUSD (Dec Meeting)Hi All!
As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December.
I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec.
As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well.
In a nutshell...
IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro.
IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news)
IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year)
So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers.
any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account @SolidSnakeUk89