Banking
GBPUSD H4 - Long Trade SetupGBPUSD H4 - Nice strong GBP rally for the last few weeks, performed excellently, saw a bit of exhaustion towards the latter part of last week as we failed to set highs, that being said, we haven't set new lows, so we are technically range bound until we see a breakout. Generally would like to catch an opportunity to buy from support and hopefully break new highs (as indicated on the chart).
Up momentum for $XRP #XRP is almost breakingTrying to simplify the $XRP chart, but if you cannot see the Square, meaning the probabilities are all in favor of #XRP its possible to reach the $250-$320USD this is the most realistic aproach of dynamic momentum for the chart as a whole, the red line is the existent support.
$WZR: Fintech hype+ Solid uptrendFA,
- FinTech Revolution (WZR left behind while the punters bet on BNPL)
- Loan origination spikes 48% in June 2020. Consistent uptrend
- Wisr Ecosystem up 52%
- 42.4 Million in Cash
- Great vision: Improve financial wellness in Australians.
- Strong support from NAB
- Good management team including CEO Anthony Nantes
- Cool name and logo ( It’s vital for long term success, Ask Peter Lynch)
TA,
- 5EMA and 10EMA above 150EMA
- Bottom trendline of Strong uptrend
- Ascending triangle( WZR has historically broken out higher from ascending triangles)
- Volume consolidation
- Strong monthly level support(white)
- RSI not overbought (RSI<50)
Capital One -- Not in My WalletAlthough Capital One is involved with more than consumer credit cards, it doesn't feel like a great place to be with record unemployment -- while unpopular, I am taking the gamble that the longer term trend is closer to '08 style credit crisis. The indicators line up, as well as the exact price levels. If this sells off (starting with poor earnings next week?) and was to do an exact length match to the bottom as in '08, it would be 17 monthly candles, or in this case roughly December 2021. COF broke through its 200 day moving average, and I don't see the earnings impressing.
XRP Technical AnalysisI’ve been watching this for quite some time. Fundamental analysis has been hit and miss because the Information provided from Ripple, in terms of utility, has been spotty and confirmation of clients utilizing the ODL hasn’t been cut and dry. With that being said, i think some of the near term driving factors are clearer than before. For blockchain companies to succeed, we have to start seeing a symbiosis, of sorts, between the utility driving factors. IE, ethereum assisting XRP, assisting LINK—etc. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts—TEAM. “Together, Everyone Achieves More”. This ideology is finally coming to fruition in the crypto sector. And rightly so, the Remittance payments sector has been in dire need of “repair” for a decades. And when Institutions see the fruit on the trees in terms of costs savings, speed, efficiency, the sector will do an about face and rightly so.
The chart, if I’m doing this right—is relatively basic. On the weekly, we see a great setup of an inverse head and shoulders. Laid with the chart is your basic Fib retracement levels along with RSI, OBV, volume and MACD along with BBands. My leading indicator, OBV (which isn’t perfect) has been showing extreme strength in accumulation. Price, while decreasing, has been keeping the OBV high. Which is the ideal scenario for this indicator. RSI has been surprised, which can show weakness ( which can be good—trading psychology, remember)
So, what does it mean? It means a bullish trend is emerging. And with it being on the weekly timescale, the confirmation is, strictly in my own opinion, a buy signal.
*This is not investment advice; these are my opinions only and should not be misconstrued for anything but my opinion.*
Bank of America testing trend lineBank of America is near a three-month trend line today as the entire market pulls back. $BAC is far from the strongest of the bank stocks, which are a weak sector in general, so it's quite possible it won't hold the support. I've picked up a July 31 option call and set an alert to trigger to me to sell if it crosses below the trend line. Estimize is forecasting small beats on both EPS and revenue on $BAC's next earnings report.
STOXX 600 (BANKING)STOXX 600 BANKING -as indicated on the chart. the blue highlighted area is a buying opportunity with to much risk for me, so i will not participate, the greater opportunity is a SHORT, i will also not participate. The take away here is that prices can tumble all the way down to the yellow zone and a new normal will emerge in the most devastating deflationary market the world has ever seen - In line with my expectation that crypto currencies like Bitcoin, Ripple and Euthereum will sky rocket to new highs and make many rich in the a world of new normal!!
XLF - banks not looking good 6-12moPotential for a fakeout here but my hypothesis is that we see new local lows on XLF by the end of 2020. You may think the banking sector looks poised for a rebound if you look at the weekly candles, but the monthly candles look like this dump could just be getting started.
Short XLF
Entry: $23-25
Stop: 26.50
Target: $18.50 - $13
Assess in October, adjust 18.50
BARCLAYS 2.0 - STILL STRONGBy popular demand, here are my revised predictions for Barclays over the next month or so.
I will mark this chart as long, but READ THIS DESCRIPTION . I am not indicating that you long from the get go. Please read my thesis to see when and how you should enter these positions.
Barclays hit the initial target I set almost instantly. From there, it's been consolidating, choosing where to go from that area. To me, it seems as if it'll be down, and then up. Stocks don't tend to go up, then fall slightly, and then boost right back up. Tying in with the COVID-19 pandemic, I don't think it's likely that Barclays has the heart to fight through the terrors as of yet.
We can see how well Barclays followed the trendline that I set out. It hit is almost perfectly, but then proceeded to push back upwards from there on.This leaves us in a tricky position.
I can only post one thesis on a chart, although I actually have two.
Number one is one NOT on the chart. The thesis for this is that Barclays continue their run upwards off of the trendline and touch it one again, but then print a divergence and get out of the hole that they are in. I think this is more unlikely because of the traction needed to get out of the area that they're in. Their chart looks similar to HSBC, in that it's not unlikely that they will fall back into the bottom range. However, if Barclays manage to hold the consolidation period they're in, and print a nice push upwards, then it's safe to say we will hit the first (and potentially second) target with little to no effort.
Now for my second thesis. This is the one that's on the chart. As you can see, I have planted two buying zones on the chart. The reasoning for this is due to the difference between CFD and Stock trading. If you trade CFD's, it's more worth it to wait until the 75% zone. If you buy and hold stocks, it's safer to buy into the 25% zone AND the 75% zone should it hit. Use both zones at your own discretion. My prediction is that Barclays will lose the trendline, get trapped underneath it, and then proceed to fall under the line to the buying zones plotted. From here, it will try and reclaim its previous trend by pushing through the resistance; to which it should partially falter and then succeed, I have not included the resistance on here because if you enter in the two zones plotted, it should be rather irrelevant.
Hopefully this thesis gives some of you a clearer idea on what to do in this scenario. A recovery in imminent, but not immediate.
- 𝙇𝙄𝙉𝘿𝙀𝙇𝙇
HSBC Pushing Upwards...HSBC is the best bank stock to buy and hold right now. Note the hold element in that statement. Take security in the support level mapped out @ 20.50. This is very likely to hold, but we could be in for some consolidation here. It's very likely that HSBC will hit the target in the 'entry price'. From there, we have two scenarios.
One is that it lifts off from that target due to the local support within the range charted. If this happens, then we can expect HSB to hit our target with very little effort.
The second scenario is that it consolidates and goes slightly below our entry, before potentially falling through/holding that level and sitting tight for a week or two. We need sufficient volume in this situation and we should be looking to get a safe entry at all costs. Whilst the volatility is residing, we can take a technical outlook and chart onwards from there. For now, however, I think the idea presented works perfectly in conjunction with what the chart says to us here. I would expect this target to be hit by the 1st June at the latest, but as early as next Tuesday.
Maybank is interested to test The main Trendline @ RM6.5It could be the best price level to buy and to keep for a few years.
The economy is not collapsing yet,
just a little hiccup caused by a global pandemic
But if it breaks the Trendline then I'll recommend every investor to increase their Gold Reserves quickly.
JPMorgan looks resilient to recessionI read an interesting WSJ article this morning on JP Morgan. It seems that CEO Jamie Dimon believes JP Morgan can maintain its dividend even if GDP dips 35% this year. The bank has a large cash pile and a diversified portfolio because Dimon has long been designing JPM to be a "port in a storm."
www.wsj.com
JPM currently has a 4% dividend. It's possible that if you wait a while, the dividend yield will get even better. But 4% ain't bad, and if JPM believes it can maintain that, then this is probably the company to own in the banking sector right now. Also notice the positive signals on MACD and engulfing candle indicators.
Prepare for financial crisisThe biological crisis has stabilized, but the financial crisis is just beginning. True, the Fed has been injecting huge amounts of money into the financial system via repo and treasury and mortgage bond buying. In just a few weeks we're doing more QE than we did over 8 months back in 2008. That should help prevent outright bank failures, but there's still going to be a lot of pain as mortgages and corporate debt start to default.
The canary in the coal mine for a mortgage default crisis is unemployment, and this week we're likely to see initial jobless claims jump from 280,000 last week to some number in the millions. Reports indicate that New York's unemployment office is receiving 200,000-500,000 new claims per day, and California's jumped from 2,000 to 80,000 overnight. Both offices are overwhelmed and their employees are working huge amounts of overtime to keep up with all the new claims.
Bad mortgages aren't as big a risk to the economy as they were in 2008, but they're still a pretty big risk. The Trump administration has been lowering lending standards for several years, and the share of mortgages considered "high risk" has been rising rapidly. There's going to be pain in the banking sector. I will enter FAZ ahead of Thursday's ICSA report this week.