JP MORGAN Approaching the ideal sell level.JP Morgan Chase (JPM) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 12 2022 market bottom. Currently it is on a relentless rally since the October 27 2023 Higher Low, which is technically the Bullish Leg towards the Channel's top and new Higher High.
The peak points of the previous two main Bullish Legs of the Channel Up, took place when the 1D RSI formed Lower Highs against the price's Higher Highs, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. Since the price is currently so close to the top of the Channel Up, we will wait for the RSI to form that Lower High sequence and enter a confirmed sell. Our target will be 163.00, which is a projected contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 0.382 Fibonacci Channel level, which has always been reached during Bearish Legs.
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Banking
NUBANK - A perfect example of great TANUBANK - NYSE:NU
A beautiful case of Technical Analysis providing all the structures for a winning trade. First shared this idea earlier in the year. It was just an idea....now we are almost 100% up.
Surpassed 90% return on this trade since taking up positions in June 2022 and again in Jan 2023.
I sold a portion in Aug 2023 with a breach of the 21 day SMA and reentered slightly lower with a stop.
We then reclaimed the 21 day and started moving towards the target.
What's beautiful about this trade is the following:
1. We had a double bottom
2. We then had a parallel channel breakout with a target that aligned with the 1.618 fib extension.
3. As things progressed we identified a 5 wave Elliot count.
Now we have clear incoming targets at $9.04 and $10.17. We will use the RSI oversold timeframes from the past to help identify when we need to watch the chart carefully (red area) and we also know we can rely on the 21 day SMA as a trigger sell.
All the hard work is done here on this trade. We just need to ensure we sell some of our position or all of it if it breaks down. Typically after a 5 wave count you get an ABC style correction. With the TA being perfect on this chart to date, it would not surprise me to see a good correction when this wave 5 completes. All the same, we remain in a winning trade and stay on trend until the trend changes.
I almost forgot to mention earnings are released next Tuesday 14th November , so we will need to keep an eye then too. NYSE:NU
PUKA
DXY H8 - Short SignalDXY H8
DXY is currently maintaining its position at the key resistance level of 104, demonstrating resilience at this significant whole number price point. Despite hitting this zone yesterday, we observe a relatively subdued level of market activity.
It appears that the markets are in a wait-and-see mode, anticipating a potential surge in trading volume driven by the release of crucial economic indicators, namely NFP, AE, and UE figures scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. Investors seem poised for a potential shift in market dynamics following the upcoming data release.
That being said, we are anticipating more downside.
EURUSD D1 - Correction before LONGSIn the realm of EURUSD, a flurry of Euro-related CPI inflation data is poised to make its entrance in just a matter of minutes. Our focus is keenly set on witnessing a more pronounced rejection of the psychological price point at 1.10, paving the way for a potential support discovery around the 1.08500 mark or even the significant 1.0800 whole number.
As our sights remain steadfast on the unfolding market dynamics, the ultimate goal is to orchestrate a breakthrough past the resilient 1.10 resistance. This strategic move is poised to set the stage for an ambitious ascent towards the coveted yearly high, with our eyes firmly fixed on reaching the pinnacle at 1.25.
Trading Idea: Buy Deutsche Bank (DB) StockDeutsche Bank's stock price has experienced a decline over the past 5 days. This trading idea proposes buying Deutsche Bank (DB) stock.
Core Logic
The trading idea is based on identifying companies with strong short-term profitability. The strategy focuses on three key factors:
Gross Profit Margin: A high gross profit margin indicates that the company is generating substantial profit from its core operations after deducting the cost of goods sold. This is a positive indicator of profitability.
Revenue: High revenue suggests that the company is generating substantial income from its business activities. A strong revenue stream indicates a healthy and growing business.
Cost of Revenue: A low cost of revenue indicates that the company is efficiently managing its expenses related to producing goods or services. Lower costs lead to higher profit margins and potentially higher profitability.
By considering these factors, the trading idea aims to identify companies with strong short-term profitability potential. Based on these insights, the idea suggests buying Deutsche Bank (DB) stock.
Please note that this trading idea is suitable for investors with an extremely short investment horizon and an exceptionally high risk tolerance.
Technical Outlook
Deutsche Bank Approaching Key Support Level
Deutsche Bank (DB) is currently trading at 12.09. The stock is approaching a key support level, just 5 cents away from 11.86. Breaking below this level could indicate further losses are ahead. However, if the stock fails to break below this level, it could be viewed positively by bulls, with a retracement being likely.
In spite of the current bearish market, market analysts expect Deutsche Bank's price action to test an important upper Bollinger Band® level at $12.47. This indicates that there is potential for a rebound in the stock's price.
Deutsche Bank's stock has seen a 10.61% increase in the past month and has outperformed the Nasdaq by 36.18% so far this year. The stock currently has a market cap of $24.29 billion.
Yesterday, a total of 1.48 million shares of Deutsche Bank were traded, which is below the multiday average of 2.39 million shares.
Today, Deutsche Bank's stock declined by 0.49%, falling from 12.15 to 12.09. This further reinforces the ongoing downtrend of the stock.
In summary, Deutsche Bank is approaching a critical support level and breaking below it could lead to further losses. However, failing to break below this level could signal a retracement. Market analysts expect the stock to test an upper Bollinger Band® level at $12.47.
AUDUSD D1 - Long SignalAUDUSD has successfully executed an upward breakout, skillfully navigating a retest after surmounting the significant 0.65 threshold—a resistant range that has steadfastly held its ground for a considerable duration. Anticipating a pullback, seizing a buying opportunity within that zone seems prudent.
A substantial upside potential beckons from 0.65, stretching toward our ambitious targets of 0.67200—a robust 220-point range. Notably, minimal resistance is expected beyond 0.65700 along this upward trajectory.
US30 H8 - Short Signal 35,000US30 - H8
The US30 demonstrated upward momentum, aligning with the movements of XAUUSD and US100, as anticipated earlier. This surge was prompted by the revelation of inflation figures lower than anticipated during yesterday's trading session. Notably, the index has maintained a robust stance at the significant psychological threshold of 35,000 since August 2023, establishing it as a formidable trading range.
MORGAN STANLEY Strong buy signal at the bottom of a Channel DownMorgan Stanley (MS) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the beginning of the year and on Friday hit again the Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line. Today it formed a MACD Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame and is issuing a strong buy signal as every time it appeared, in the last 12 months, the price rose by a +8.16% to +27.31% margin.
Taking the +8.16% minimum, the price targets $83.50, which is above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but still just below the (dashed) inner Lower Highs trend-line. On a 4-month horizon, we expect an even higher price at around $90 (within Fib 0.618 - 0.786 as the July 25 High).
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BANK OF AMERICA One last low and off to a great 2024?The Bank of America Corporation (BAC) got rejected again on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a level that has been acting as a Resistance since the March 2022 break-down. This has created a Lower Highs trend-line that is the key pivot level now. But before that, let's see how it's been trading on a +10 year basis.
As you see on this chart, ever since the November 2011 Low, the stock has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel, with the extensions serving as very accurate Resistance and Support levels. We have seen 1W MA50 rejections after strong corrections in April 2016 and June 2020. Each of those times, the price hit the Buy Zone (green) before rebounding to a Higher High, while the RSI on the 1M time-frame hit the 38.80 Support. The 1M MA200 (red trend-line), which has been the multi-decade Support since the late 1980s and only broke during the 2009 Housing Crisis, is exactly at the bottom (0.0) of the Fibonacci Channel and will serve as the last Support standing between a recovery and possible oblivion.
As a result, BAC is within the Buy Zone that makes it a 4 year buy opportunity, with the most optimal level being just lower, ideally when the 1M RSI hits the 38.80 Support and rebounds. However it will only get confirmed when it closes a 1W candle above the Lower Highs trend-line. As far as a long-term target is concerned, the first Higher High on the Fibonacci scale was made on Fib 2.0 (March 2014), the second on Fib 4.0 (March 2018) and the third on Fib 6.0 (January 2022). Investors could hold, based on this sequence, until the 8.0 Fibonacci extension but on a lesser long-term horizon, we aim at $44.00.
It is interesting to point out that while each Cycle within this Channel has approximately been 4 years and each of the rallies around 2 years, like the one we're expecting now. The Sine Waves are the perfect tool to display that.
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SoFi Technologies SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
A great example of how Fibonacci Extension levels align with support & resistance levels.
Confirmations for new entry:
- Break above OBV resistance line
- Retest of 200 day SMA or break & retest of 1.00
fib ext at $8.70.
If already in the trade, congratulations. We are above the 200 SMA and it is upward sloping. It would be nice to see us break and hold above the Aug 2022 highs.
I hope this chart can help you manage the trade and de-risk at specific levels or increase allocation by skimming and reentering at specific levels.
#Sofi $SofiAfter trading in a range from $4-$8 for the last 14 months, we find ourselves now with the possibility of turning the box marked with bulls into a support/buy zone. If we can get confirmation and continuation on this into next week or even just the markets hold up Monday i would expect at the LEAST to revisit the recent high. Making for a nice quick play. However in the BIGGER picture i think you could see a LOT more upside targets getting hit.
UPDATE Nedbank heading nicely up to R238.56UPDATE from last time.
I thought we would get a bit of a pull back before the upside push, but I was mistaken.
Regardless, the price was expected to move up and up it is going.
This W Formation that formed and broke out gave a decent Risk to reward 1:2. And At this point where the R:R =1 it's even safe to bank half profits and move stop loss to breakeven.
7>21
RSI>50
Target remains at R238.56
ABOUT THE COMPANY
~ Nedbank Group Limited, commonly known as Nedbank, is one of the largest banking groups in South Africa. (Part of the Big Five!)
~ The company was established in 1888 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
~ Nedbank is a subsidiary of Old Mutual Limited, a financial services conglomerate.
~ The bank operates in various segments, including Retail and Business Banking, Corporate and Investment Banking, and Wealth Management.
~ Nedbank offers a wide range of financial products and services, including personal and business banking, loans, mortgages, investments, insurance, and asset management.
~ The company has a significant presence in South Africa, with a network of branches and ATMs across the country.
~ Nedbank has also expanded its operations internationally and has representative offices in several African countries, as well as operations in other regions such as the United Kingdom.
HOW NEDBANK GOT ITS NAME
Nedbank's name is derived from its historical roots.
When the bank was established in 1888, it was originally known as the Nederlandsche Bank en Credietvereeniging voor Zuid-Afrika (Dutch Bank and Credit Union for South Africa).
Over time, the name was shortened to Nederlandsche Bank voor Zuid-Afrika (Dutch Bank for South Africa) and eventually to Nedbank.
The name "Nedbank" reflects the bank's Dutch heritage and its focus on providing banking services in South Africa.
KRE - Regional Banking Crisis or Opportunity? KRE Regional Banking ETF
We are currently at oversold levels that offered good historic returns even if we only rise 15% to TASE:TASECTORBALANCE (Dec 2018 low) before moving lower.
Given the evolving Banking Crisis we could we revisit the bottom of the long term channel by EOY. This would be a great opportunity.
Throwback to TASE:TASECTORBALANCE dollars current idea... stay frosty on this one traders. Current wick low is your stop.
Safe Trading
PUKA
TRLY Undervalued / Fed Fix Long SetupThe 2H chart on TLRY shows a volume profile showing the highest concentration of shares
traded at $2.65 or about 15% above the current price. Short sellers dominated there. Price has
descended down onto the support/demand zone. It is near to tow standard deviations below
the mean VWAP and so very undervalued.
Federal legislation intended to remedy the cannabis industry's issues with banking, commercial
loans and other financial liquidity has begun. This is huge for this subsector and could cause a
breakout from the deep undervalued territory.
I will take a long setup here for a decent amount of shares and hedge with a single
put option for risk management/insurance. ACB is similarly positioned.
LUCKILY THE TEST TACTIC SUSTAINEDIT TOOK MONTHS OF PREPARATION.
A LITTLE OVER A YEAR AGO... NOTICED VERY PECULIAR PATTERNS ON A LOT OF VERY STURDY CHARTS. EXAMINED NEARLY 400 TICKERS... SOMETHING VERY IMPORTANT STOOD OUT.
DID SOME CALCULATIONS AND TESTED THE THEORY WITH A LIVE PORTFOLIO.
WHEN THE BANKING CRISIS STARTED PACKING IN, THE PORTFOLIO WAS RED AT FIRST. THEN EVERYTHING WENT GREEN... AND STAYED GREEN. LIKE M A G I C.
THE BANKING CRISIS WAS PERFECT FOR THIS PORTFOLIO TYPE.
VERY TUNED IN. EVERYTHING WORKED JUST AS PLANNED.
THERE ARE PLENTY MORE TO GO...
WILL TEST OUT THE LONGEVITY NOW.
WE ARE IN A CYCLE AND IT'S CLEAR AS DAY.
Strange things can and will happen.
The performance of our markets are extraordinarily fascinating!
Watched the market throughout the 2020 fallout... iT was nothing short of miraculous.
We are all lucky.
Count your blessings.
Take care.
P.S. Let's not get too excited. We have work to do!
🔥 Bitcoin To $100k This Year? Rising From The Ashes Of BanksIn this analysis I want to talk about the possibility of Bitcoin going to 100k this year. This is a speculative analysis, but still based on real-world macro. Take it with a grain of salt.
Bitcoin going to 100k in the middle of a banking and inflation crisis, with a FED that's increasing the interest rates? I would've said it's impossible. Not only that, but it's in stark contrast with the usual 4-year halving cycles.
However, something has changed over the last months. In March, during the Silicon Valley Bank's crisis, we saw a massive bullish move. This had to do with the fact that people lost confidence in (regional) banks, and decided to get self-custody over their own money and buy Bitcoin (and gold). Since then, BTC has been trading bullish alongside Gold, hedging against the risk of further banking failures.
More banks have gone under over the last few days. Signature Bank and First Republic bank went down and had to be sold and/or saved. 3/4 of the biggest banks that ever went under, went under in 2023.
While the stock markets sold off over the last few days, BTC gained strength. Most notable was the reaction after the interest rate hike yesterday. The SP500 fell from a cliff, whilst Bitcoin saw a huge move upwards.
Check out the analysis below where I go more into detail on why this seemingly inverse relationship exists:
Albeit a small probability, I think that the idea of BTC going to 100k this year is not even that far-fetched. In my eyes, the banking sector is far from safe, especially now that the FED has increased the interest rates yet again and is very unlikely to reduce the rates in the coming months. More banks failing means more risk to your money, means more people buying BTC and gaining self-custody over their own money.
And yes, more banks are failing as we speak. PacWest Bancorp has seen a 75% drop since the first of May.
Smaller, regional banks falling are bullish, but won't get BTC to 100k. There is a possibility of the largest banks failing, think JPMorgan or Bank of America. And if they do, we can experience a massive influx of buying that we've never seen before, purely based on fear.
In normal circumstances, the FED will aggressively cut the interest rates and start printing money to safe the banks. They can't really do that anymore because it will cause inflation. However, they most likely will because saving one of the largest US banks is going to be more important than inflation, at least in the short-term.
In case you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Feel free to share your thoughts below 🙏.
🔥 Bitcoin Bearish Channel: Break Out On Banks Failing?In my latest BTC analysis I talked about the bearish channel in which Bitcoin was trading. My expectation was a move downwards, since the market looked more bearish than bullish.
After a quick drop, BTC recovered again on regional banking failures.
With yesterday's FOMC meeting rising the interest rates by another 0.25%, the risks of more (regional) banks becoming insolvent has only increased. This is good news for Bitcoin because people will take out their money from banks and store it in BTC (or gold, for that matter).
We can break out of the channel today, making it a bull-flag pattern. Looking at 30k and 31k in the short-term in case the bullish pressure persists. Be patient for the break out. Also note the blue dotted support line, which can be retested in the near future.