BankNifty Crash Is Coming?Oh my my... Hey BankNifty, are we standing on the cliff right now??? Why my bar color is red when you are closing at All Time High?
Let's understand
[Before you read, Please Note: I use 2Day timeframe charts mostly ]
If I am not wrong, Bank nifty index is outperforming entire world right now. I see it is the only index that closed at ATH today, 14th Dec 2022. I am taking about major Indices here :).
So why on this mother earth, I am looking skeptically on this rally, where everyone looks greedy about this index going higher n higher.
Although let me make my stand clear here, I am actually long on this index since 20th Oct 2022. Now that I am in handsome profits, I have to work with my exit strategy to trail my SL for this trade.
Now let's understand where I am coming from. Over the years I have studied market trends and my focus was always on finding when markets would change their trend. And it's always observed that before market changes their ongoing trend, it usually tends to take small pause for few days before starting mark down journey.
So based on Rate of change theory, I create a simple indicator that helps me understand the markets larger trend.
What do I mean by larger trend? .... market on short term time frame can be lot of noisy in terms of trend so bars or candle colors creates confusion in our innocent mind. So, to remove this confusion indicatory simply decides bar color based on the strength of trend. Simply I would say Green is Bullish and Red is bearish.
Today BankNifty closed at ATH (All Time High) though the bar color indicator suggests me that there is high chance of bearish ness is on the horizon. This typical situation occurred few times in the past where BankNifty is at ATH or with 2% range of ATH. I am highlighting two situations when bank nifty made ATH only to fall for next 85 days. First occurred in Jan 2013 and 2nd in Jan 2020 days before covid crash. And we are near the same time zone of the year where not just for these 2 years but for all major falls started in January of those respective years.
Isn't this surprisingly interesting?
And if you observe time cycle closely you will understand that whenever there is major fall occurs in the market it usually lasts for 85 days and that is where the bottom is made for the mark down rally.
I always try to improve my observations, do you?
Thank you for ready and wish you successful trading journey,
Yogesh
