USDCAD Bank Of Canada Rate - REVIEWSo BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish enough. I looked at the chart price have moved considerably high as well, but based on my research events like this tend to hit 100-120 pips. So i took a "scalping" trade and made a target at 1.2800. I made 2% from this trade.
*I apologize for the written mistakes I made in my CAD trading plans.
Bankofcanada
Sell USDCAD - Anticipating Weak US data and Hawkish CAD commentUSD has been increasing consistently over the Asian session. It's a aftermath effect as market digest more of Yellen's yesterday speech, plus there are some more US data coming up and is on average expected to be good.
My statistical analysis shows that the data may not be as good as expected. Furthermore I think Governor Poloz's speech later in the day is a more important driver for the pair and my base expectation is it is going to be a hawkish comment and that may send CAD higher.
Sentiment wise, retails are Long USD and Short CAD. Most severely Short CAD is USDCAD and most severely Long USD is GBPUSD.
I would fade USD strength and bet on CAD strength reversal. I'm still looking for an entry, either via price action or I will enter closer to the data release if the pair pull closer to 1.24 level. My TP is after Poloz's speech, of course it depends on how hawkish he is going to be but I can use price action to take off then, interest level are 1.235 or 1.23.
USDCAD will fall, oil to climb with Bank of Canada moveTalk about putting a surprise wrench in the system. I have been fairly bearish on WTIUSD - Oil . I went short just before the meeting and got out just two days ago. I was looking to go short oil again. However, oil and CAD move in lock-step, and there is a very strong correlation between interest rates and oil prices. Now that the Bank of Canada is raising interest rates, although I am still bearish on oil, I am going to have to wait to go short again.
CAD will continue to rally, especially against some of the other majors such as EUR and GBP. This move takes CAD out of its deep slumber with the potential to really move. Long term, I see the DXY, US Dollar Index, heading lower. This is a very small part of that, EUR being a major part of that.
This is a new shift in the FX markets.