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Bankofengland

GBPJPY Technical Analysis 27.03.2023 1h chart– Previous Weekly candle closed Bearish at 159.800, Friday Daily candle also closed Bearish as it broke below recent Daily Support formed on Monday 20th March 2023. – Buys on close above 160.030 targeting 1h previous Support formed on 23rd March 2023 at 160.390, Leaving Runners to the 1h Resistance formed at 160.770. – Sells on close below 159.270 targeting 4h Support at 158.950, Leaving Runners to the Monthly Support formed in January 2023 at 158.420. – Bank Of England Governor Andrew Bailey due to speak at the London School of Economics after the London session close.
by SalimFX20
3
GBPJPY Technical Analysis 23.03.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle close Bearish at 161.100 back in the range forming new Daily Resistance at 161.800. – Buys on close above 161.360 targeting Daily Resistance at 161.810, Leaving Runners to the 1h Resistance at 162.310. – Sells on close below 160.800 targeting 1h Support at 160.290, Leaving Runners to the 4h Support at 159.850. – High Impact News ahead for the Pound Sterling 1h before New York session opens as follow : MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Monetary Policy Summary and the Official Bank Rate – What is Bank Rate : – The Bank Rate for the Bank of England, also known as the base rate or interest rate, is the rate at which the Bank of England lends money to commercial banks. When the Bank Rate is high, it becomes more expensive for commercial banks to borrow money from the Bank of England. This, in turn, can cause commercial banks to increase the interest rates they charge their customers for loans and mortgages. On the other hand, when the Bank Rate is low, it becomes cheaper for commercial banks to borrow money from the Bank of England, which can lead to lower interest rates for loans and mortgages. – The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets the Bank Rate based on their assessment of economic conditions and their mandate to achieve the government’s inflation target. By adjusting the Bank Rate, the MPC can influence the level of economic activity, inflation, and employment in the UK economy. A lower Bank Rate can encourage borrowing and spending, which can boost economic activity and employment, but may also lead to higher inflation. Conversely, a higher Bank Rate can help to curb inflation, but may also dampen economic activity and employment.
by SalimFX20
British pound's rally fizzles as markets settle downThe British pound has reversed directions after an impressive rally that saw GBP/USD climb 370 points. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2154, down 0.24%. The collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday sent the financial markets into turmoil on Monday. US bank stocks declined sharply, while safe-haven gold powered higher. The US dollar retreated against the major currencies and the 2-year Treasury yield fell almost a full point. Tuesday has brought better news, as the markets appear to have settled down. The US dollar has regrouped and is higher against the majors. There is an uneasy calm in the air, but that doesn't necessarily mean that this latest crisis is behind us. Investors are on alert and will be very sensitive to new developments and any negative news could renew market volatility. The Fed and Treasury Department acted quickly to protect depositors and President Biden sent a reassuring message at an impromptu television address, but the collapse of the 16th largest lender in the US means it's unlikely to be "business as usual" for some time. It was just a week ago that Fed Chair Powell's hawkish testimony on the Hill raised expectations of the Fed delivering a 50-bp increase at the March 22 meeting. Those expectations have vanished into smoke, with the markets now expecting a 25-bp hike, with an outside chance of a pause.  We could see further market repricing after today's CPI report, with headline CPI expected to fall to 6.0%, down from 6.4%. In the UK, the employment report was within expectations. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%, shy of the estimate of 3.8%. Hourly earnings fell to 5.7%, as expected, down from an upwardly revised 6%. The pound hasn't reacted to the release and the data is unlikely to change minds at the Bank of England, which is expected to raise rates by 25 bp at the March 23 meeting. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2113 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 1.2294 There is support at 1.1984 and 1.1854
by OANDA
1
GBP/USD slips on record debt, soft PMIsThe British pound has posted slight gains on Tuesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2302, down 0.60%. UK debt costs soared in December, sending the budget deficit to a record 27.4 billion pounds. This was sharply higher than the November reading of 18.8 billion pounds and the consensus of 17.3 billion pounds. The drivers behind the sharp upturn were rising interest payments and government subsidies for gas and electricity. The government's bill for the subsidies in December was some 7 billion pounds. Despite the grim debt news, the pound remains steady, thanks to broad US dollar weakness. UK PMIs for December didn't help matters, as both the Services and Manufacturing PMIs came in below the 50 level, which indicates contraction. Manufacturing rose slightly to 46.7, up from 45.3 in November and above the forecast of 45.0 points. The Services PMI fell to 48.0, down from the November read and the forecast, both of which were 49.9 points. The soaring debt and soft PMIs are further signs of a weak UK economy. These are clearly not ideal conditions for raising interest rates, but with inflation at 10.5%, the Bank of England doesn't really have much choice, as entrenched inflation could cause more damage to the economy than high interest rates. The road back to low inflation promises to be a long one, with the BoE projecting that inflation won't drop to 5% until late this year. The US will release Manufacturing and Services PMIs which are expected to remain in contraction territory. Manufacturing is expected to tick lower to 46.1 (46.2 prev.), while Services is forecast to dip to 44.5 (44.7 prev.). If the releases are softer than expected, the US dollar could lose ground as speculation will rise that the Fed may have to ease up on the pace of rates. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2335. Below, there is support at 1.2233 There is resistance at 1.2499 and 1.2601
by OANDA
GBPCHF:Good opportunity on Policy DivergenceSwitzerland National Bank officially announced the intervention in the FX market to stop the Swiss Franc depreciation, which confirms a regime change for the SNB. and their Hawkish monetary policy will strengthen the CHF and aim for a lower inflation, meanwhile the Bank of England hiked the rates slowly and with hesitations despite a very high inflation which should contribute to a strong CHF against GBP. Technically we noticed a breakout of the Daily trend, we will look into selling the retrace of the breakout around the monthly zone of 1.129, with a SL above previous highs as in the swing trades the movements are more violent so a proper risk management should be considered. Remember that whatever is your reasoning for the market and no matter how strong are the analysis there is always a probability of losing as trading is more of a probability field so make sure to always consider a good RR, risk small and aim higher. Your questions are very welcome!
Short
by JoeChampion
7
Exciting Times for $ Denominated Pairs!In this video we look into DXY structure and how this is so exciting for a few USD pairs. Generally across the board on the HTF we are seeing lots of corrective patterns completing their moves. These are nearly always followed by large impulsive movements in the market which are fantastic to capitalise on. USDJPY and GBPUSD see some clear impulsive phases beginning and we forecast how those entries may present themselves. Whilst we have to remain impartial, the Macro perspective on the $ looks like we could see some weakness and the £ seems like we could see some strength. This look particularly good for GBPUSD. If the markets are pricing the future rate hikes in this coming week then we could see some big movements. If not, we might be looking at some corrective behaviour until 14th December. This will be a very interesting week, for sure. Please comment below and engage with the post - would love to hear your thoughts.
by jakecarling41
What Now With GBPUSD ?- Key points: 1- The fall statement came in the context of weak economic growth, high inflation rates and high interest rates. The Office of the Balance Sheet projected that the UK would be in recession from the third quarter which would last for just over a year until the third quarter of 2023, with GDP falling 2.1% during that time. 2- Retail sales volumes are estimated to have increased 0.6% in October 2022 after a 1.5% decline in September (revised from a 1.4% decline) which was affected by the additional state funeral bank holiday. 3- On November 3, the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it had raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive meeting. Rates were raised 0.75 percentage points to 3.0%, the largest increase since "Black Wednesday" in 1992. - Technical Analysis: Diving into the technical part, we can see that there's a bearish structure starting from level 1.18700 approx. on the daily timeframe. In addition to that, considering 50&200 MA's starting from 1 hour timeframe is taking a downtrend path, which means things will take time on the daily until things payoff a bit and go bearish. Now speaking of oscillators, even from the daily and down they're all taking the downtrend path. Same with MACD, starting from 4H, and getting to the peak on daily before breaking down. Now channels, donchian, supertrend; were kind of reaching the peak on the daily while as on smaller ones they already broke down. Now, as a nutshell, all these meetings the EoB and the UK did during the last week, due to their importance and the reports they gave in which everyone was waiting for to know what's next, was very necessary to the currency as well for traders to know what path the GBP will take for the next days or even weeks. Now for those who are asking what's the next checkpoint if it went bearish? Well, on smaller timeframes, like the 1H and 2H, there is a major orderblock on a level of 1.17670 approx. In which the price would go for a reversal, or break down more. And to do so, economical events must play it's major role. It depends on interest rates and inflation, as well as the CPI, stuff like these...
Short
by JawadShoukeir
1
GBP/USD analysis: BoE hikes needed to curb gilts' term premiumFinally unveiled, the UK government's Autumn Budget was conservative and cautious, in line with market expectations. A fiscal consolidation of £55 billion has been announced, to be split evenly between more taxes and lower spending. From the next year until 2028, windfall taxes on oil and gas companies will increase from 25% to 35%, while the Energy Price Guarantee programme (EPS) has been revised to cut down on government spending. These two measures dominate the UK's fiscal adjustment. But now that the threat of losing the anchor of fiscal credibility has ended, sterling investors are once again confronted with the reality of the UK economic outlook. Inflation is expected to average 7.4% in 2023, but GDP will shrink 1.4% due to the recession. A higher and more persistent inflation rate requires the Bank of England to maintain its restrictive stance for a longer period of time. Furthermore, the longer inflation stays high, the more difficult it will be for gilts to lure buyers to these negative real yields, especially since the BoE will restart quantitative tightening in late November. GBP/USD has risen from 1.036 to 1.203 following the reversal of September's mini-budget, primarily due to lower gilt yields, as recovered market confidence in fiscal policy has stimulated demand for UK sovereign bonds. Gilt yields likely bottomed out before the UK Autumn Budget, as the market had largely anticipated the fiscal consolidation, and could now resume a natural upward repricing, not in a disorderly fashion, but adequately to reflect a high inflation/high interest rate environment. The outlook for the pound is now dependent on the Bank of England's policies. Hawkish BoE = Neutral/bullish scenario for the pound If the BoE turns out to be more hawkish than expected – markets are currently pricing in 60bps in December and terminal rate of 4.5% next year – it can better control inflationary expectations and pressures. In this scenario, UK interest rates will increase quicker than UK 10-year gilt yields, limiting the term premium and enhancing policy credibility. This is a favourable scenario for the pound, as it can restrict the downside and discourage speculators from shorting a currency with a high yield. Dovish BoE = Bearish scenario for the pound In contrast, if the BoE delivers fewer rate hikes than the market currently predicts, inflation expectations will not be restrained and long-term gilt yields would rise faster than UK interest rates, effectively placing downside pressure on the pound.
by Capitalcom
GBPJPY: Sterling inflation pressure?!GBPJPY Intraday - We look to Sell at 167.15 (stop at 168.30) We are trading at overbought extremes. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 163.80 and 161.05 Resistance: 168.70 / 172.10 / 181.15 Support: 164.40 / 161.05 / 158 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
2
A dovish BoE leads to a weaker UK PoundThe Bank of England delivered a 75bps rate hike last week but also signaled warnings of a deep recession and that rates may have peaked. This brought broad base weakness to the GBPUSD with the price testing a low of 1.1150. Toward the end of the week, weakness in the DXY brought a brief respite to the GBPUSD, with the price trading higher towards 1.1365. Look for the GBPUSD to trade higher towards the 1.1380 price level before trading lower again. If the price breaks below the 1.13 price level, the GBPUSD could slide lower to retest the key support level of 1.1150 again.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
1
Pound slides on Truss resignation falloutThe British pound is showing strong volatility in the wake of Prime Minister's Truss resignation. Truss resigned on Thursday after just 44 days in office, and the pound jumped as much as 1% before paring most of the gains. The reality of the political maelstrom engulfing the UK has set in and GBP/USD has plunged 1.1% today. The currency has touched a low of 1.1100, its lowest level since October 13th. The deep political crisis in the UK has seen two prime ministers resign in just two months and leaves the Conservatives in turmoil. The Conservatives will elect a new leader next week and fortunately for them, they do not need to call an election for two more years. Still, Truss's brief period as prime minister has caused political and financial chaos, and the new leader will have their work cut out to establish some semblance of normality for the country after the circus over the past few weeks. The Bank of England meets on November 3rd and with inflation climbing back into double digits, the Bank has little choice but to continue delivering oversize rates. Policy makers will likely be deliberating between a 0.75% and a full-point hike, which could give the beleaguered pound a much-needed boost. The Federal Reserve has signalled that it plans to remain aggressive, as priority number one remains the fight against soaring inflation. This hawkish position was outlined by Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday. Harker was blunt, saying that the Fed's rate hikes had failed to curb inflation and that rates would continue to rise "for a while". He added that rates would be "well above" 4% by the end of the year. Currently, the benchmark is at 3.25%, with the Fed holding its next meeting on November 2nd. The markets have received the message loud and clear, pricing in two more 0.75% increases in November and December. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1254. Above, there is resistance at 1.1399 There is support at 1.1162 and 1.1085
by OANDA
1
GBP/USD steadies after rallyGBP/USD has edged lower today, after starting the week with sharp gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1334, down 0.18%. The pound continues to show strong volatility as the political saga continues in the UK. Truss finally stopped blaming the markets and "global headwinds" for the decline of the British pound and UK gilts on Monday, saying she was sorry for going too "far and too fast" with her economic plan. Truss has insisted she will continue on as leader, but the restless Conservatives, who have sunk in the polls, could decide to pull the plug on Truss' disastrous leadership. Jeremy Hunt, the new finance minister, wasted no time in abolishing most of the tax cuts contained in the recent mini-budget and told parliament that spending cuts and tax increases were coming, an astounding U-turn. Hunt scaled back the plan to cap energy bills for consumers and that could mean higher inflation. The markets liked what they heard and the pound soared by 1.5% on Monday. Still, the soft economic outlook and the political chaos which has rocked the UK are strong headwinds which will likely weigh on the pound. The UK releases CPI for September on Wednesday, which is expected to edge higher. Headline inflation is projected to hit 10.0%, up from 9.9%, and core CPI is forecast to rise to 6.4%, up from 6.3%. With no sign of inflation peaking, the Bank of England remains under pressure to continue raising interest rates at the November 3rd meeting. Goldman Sachs has downgraded its UK growth outlook, with the economy expected to decline by 1% in 2023, worse than the previous estimate of -0.4%. GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.1373 and 1.1455 There is support at 1.1214 and 1.1085
by OANDA
EURGBP This Week: What's New ? Good Evening, Despite of the meetings the European Central Bank did and especially Bank of England in which it raised the inflation recently, we need to talk in technical analysis language and in an easy simplified language in which traders out there can claim what's going on. So here are the key points: - There is bearish order block set in 0.87081 level which is a good sign we're still safe going bear, in addition to a character of change that was broken below from the previous lower low. - Speaking of EMA's, the current candle is ready to the 50 EMA. Hopefully, things are still going in our favor (for those who are willing to go short). - In sort of Technical Indicators, the very most popular indicators, MACD, for example, admits strongly for going short in addition to RSI, was previously overbought and still in a high level. I can go much more further and give more and more advanced analysis, but I like to keep things simple and easy to catch so traders can find my analysis quite handy.
Short
by JawadShoukeir
1
GBPUSD: Bears still lurking?GBPUSD Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.1485 (stop at 1.1580) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. We are trading at overbought extremes. A Doji style candle has been posted from the high. A lower correction is expected. Previous resistance located at 1.1495. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 1.1210 and 1.0880 Resistance: 1.1495 / 1.2115 / 1.2670 Support: 1.0880 / 1.0325 / 1.000 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’ ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
EURGBP:Looks like bulls will win?EURGBP I ntraday - We look to Buy at 0.8750 (stop at 0.8685) We are trading at overbought extremes. A lower correction is expected. The bias is still for higher levels and we look for any dips to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 0.8935 and 0.8960 Resistance: 0.8960 / 0.9200 / 0.9340 Support: 0.8720 / 0.8630 / 0.8530 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’ ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
GBP/USD - Guilt Crisis, Unemployment and GDP - UK in CrisisSummary. See video link below. Finance Minister to speak in Parliament today. May cause the Pound to Rally, or fall further Bank of England is currently intervening by purchasing 5 Billion Pounds of Guilts, which they have double to 10 Billion per day for this week. UK is releasing GDP numbers tomorrow, this will cause significant volatility. Overall I am short GBP/USD. Watch this video link to understand why. www.youtube.com
Short
by SmartMoneyTV
Out of The Frying Pan, Into The FireIn terms of the global macroeconomic picture, the past two weeks have been nothing short of a firestorm. Last week, the UK government announced plans for unfunded tax cuts and additional government borrowing in the ‘mini budget’. This caused a drastic reduction in market confidence. Consequently the Pound crashed to under $1.04, historically low levels against the U.S. dollar. The volatility currently playing out in financial markets is unprecedented and akin to what we are accustomed to in the world of cryptocurrency. In order to try and stop the sell-off of the pound, yesterday the Bank of England reversed course and announced that it will engage in market operations. This will involve purchasing long-dated UK government bonds (known as gilts) in an attempt to halt the fire sale which was jeopardising major financial players such as Pension Funds. With these market operations, it is now likely that UK inflation levels will rip even higher than the eye-watering levels they are already currently at. The question now becomes, what will be the next central bank to blink and how will this continuous market chaos impact Crypto and other markets? Over the past few days, crypto and wider markets have been holding up relatively well given the state of the wider economic picture. However, with a recession looming the possibility of another leg down looks increasingly likely. In recent weeks we have seen a direct correlation between inflation levels and the price of certain cryptocurrencies. When U.S. inflation data came in on the 13th of September at 8.3%, 0.2% higher than expected, the price of Bitcoin nuked 5% in a matter of minutes. Some market forecasters assume that the Federal Reserve will eventually have to pivot and loosen up its policy, inviting in higher inflation but preserving the global financial system. However, little in the Fed’s communication so far implies that this is either likely or going to happen soon. Ultimately, either decision will have stark consequences for all financial markets, including cryptocurrency. As it stands, a market reprieve and return to an ‘up-only’ bull market seems unlikely in the foreseeable future.
OANDA:UK10YBGBP
by Coinrule
GBPCHF: Sterling woes continue!GBPCHF Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.0718 (stop at 1.0813) We look to sell rallies. There is scope for mild buying at the open but gains should be limited. The immediate bias is skewed to the upside but, with this move assessed as being corrective, we would prefer to sell into the rally. The medium term bias remains bearish. Our profit targets will be 1.0449 and 1.0110 Resistance: 1.0700 / 1.0900 / 1.1140 Support: 1.0425 / 1.0200 / 1.0000 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
The Bank of England raised rates by 50 bps as expectedEUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI ▶️ After the Federal Reserve's decision to increase the interest rate by 75 bps, the expected 50 bps rate hike from the Bank of England seemed tame in comparison. The UK fell on hard times as economic issues and the passing of its long-reigning monarch presented great challenges to the new Prime Minister, and the British Pound declined to 1.1257 against the greenback. On the other side of the British Channel, the European continent did not fare much better. EUR/USD recorded little change at a closing price of 0.9836, after returning from a high of 0.9900, still staying below parity. AUD/USD was last traded at 0.6643 with minor losses. In the US, the labor market displayed some signs of improvement, although the latest Initial Jobless Claims reading was at 213,000, it was slightly lower than the market estimates of 218,000. Riding on the waves of Fed rate hikes, USD/CAD fluctuated to 1.3487, but USD/JPY plunged to 142.35, rebounding from a low of 140.61. Gold futures were particularly volatile yesterday, swinging between $1,695 and $1,665, finally closing at $1,681.1 an ounce. WTI oil futures briefly went to $86.65 a barrel, but eventually traded flat at $83.49. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Market braces for more record-high US and UK rate hikesEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 The dollar renewed its strength against other major currencies, as the Federal Reserve interest rate decision edges closer. The market expects a 75 to 100 bps rate hike, while the Bank of England also had a projected 75 bps interest rate increase - a high in over three decades. Thus, EUR/USD slumped below parity again, closing at 0.997, and GBP/USD to 1.1379. A mixed bag of housing market data did not deter the dollar train, USD/CAD climbed and slowed, finally reaching a closing price of 1.3362, gaining over 100 pips in the process. The AUD/USD pair recorded a modest loss, due to declining oil and gold prices. The yellow metal was overshadowed by the prospect of an even stronger US dollar, gold futures went down by $7 to $1,671.1 an ounce. Oil prices went bearish as investors anticipated the US crude oil inventories to increase by 2.1 million barrels, last traded at $83.94 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Is the GBP on the edge of a cliff?As the British Pound approaches a major support level of 1.4000, we think it is akin to peering over the edge of a cliff. With one of the worst headline inflation rates in the developed markets, crippling energy bills, and a newly elected government, the Bank of England (BOE) is in a place few would want to be in. As the next policy meeting date nears, the central bank is likely to raise rates. But by how much? Too little, and inflation will remain a key issue weighing on the currency’s attractiveness compared to the USD. Too much, and consumers will be crushed with the already astronomical energy bills and rising loan re-payment, likely pushing the UK further into stagflation, something that central banks try to avoid. Either way, pound traders are likely to be disappointed. And we have not even begun to mention the effects the energy bill cap might have on longer-run inflation. The technical setup proves more interesting as the current price lies right on the 1.4000 level, a major support level, only ever breached once in 1984 and retested once in 2020. We think a clear break of this will likely lead the pound to fall harder as traders ride the downward momentum. On a shorter timeframe, the pair is arguably trading in a descending channel. As current prices teeter on the lower channel band, a breakout at the downside could spell trouble, sending the pair lower. There seems to be little in the way to slow the move lower for the GBPUSD pair as both macro headwinds and technical ones beat down the Pound lower against the USD. With the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 21st and Bank of England meeting on the 22nd of September, we expect higher volatility over the next few days, a snap lower could drive momentum traders to further extend the downside move. Entry at 1.1450, stop at 1.17400. Target at 1.08000 and 1.06150. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6B1!Short
by inspirante
20