Game Of LiquidityHello traders
-Today we will talk about liquidity and its role.
What is liquidity?
-We will try to explain you as simple as possible what liquidity is and what you should be looking for when you want to spot it.
-There is a theory on the FX markets that the Big institutions (Smart money) are always trying to trap us and take our Stop losses.
-Retail education as we all know is based on patterns (double top,double bottom, trendlines, supp res zones etc...
-As new traders come fresh on the markets they can be easily manipulated and taken away from their money because they are 'easy pray for big boys.
-If you want to understand liquidity as simple as possible - when there is a trend line, double top pattern, there are retail stop losses and there is liquidity to be taken.
Example:
1) In this example, we see that the price is moving in a downtrend
2) Then the price slows down with momentum and starts to make a lot of liquidity.
3) We can see liquidity in the form of a trendline, double tops, etc.
4) A lot of retail traders lose their money here, while we patiently wait for our opportunity.
5) Our entry is at the strong supply zone, and the price reaches it when it picks up all SL of retail traders.
6) At the end, we see a liquidity sweep that mostly happens in one move, and here we open our position.
-Remember: This is the cat and mouse game. In order for one person to win someone else needs to take the loss. So our question is
Are you a cat or a mouse?
-If this post helped you better understand the concept of liquidity, leave a like. If you have any questions, write below in the comments.
Banks
SocGen (GLE.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart of the French company Société Générale S.A. (GLE.pa). Société Générale S.A., colloquially known in English as SocGen is a French-based multinational financial services company. Société Générale is France's third largest bank by total assets after BNP Paribas and Crédit Agricole. It is also the sixth largest bank in Europe and the world's eighteenth. It is considered a systemically important bank by the Financial Stability Board. The Triangle broke through the support line on 02/12/2022. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 14 days towards 21.785 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 24.400 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Societe Generale SA agreed to merge large parts of its equities business with AllianceBernstein, intensifying the French bank’s bid to eclipse BNP Paribas SA in share trading. he Paris-based bank and AllianceBernstein will unite their cash equities trading and research units in a joint venture. SocGen will hold 51% and have the option in five years to buy the whole business, which will be run out of London under the Bernstein name.
The venture signals ambitions to take on BNP Paribas’ strengthened equities offer after the rival French bank took full control of its trading unit Exane and added businesses from retreating rivals.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Bank of America - Extending higher from the bullish flagBank of America Corp - Short Term - We look to Buy at 37.17 (stop at 35.28)
Posted a Double Bottom formation. Prices are extending higher from the bullish flag/pennant formation. The formation has a measured move target of 44.30. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 37.17, resulting in improved risk/reward.
Our profit targets will be 44.30 and 48.82
Resistance: 38.60 / 40.37 / 43.75
Support: 37.15 / 36.20 / 32.63
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US Bancorp (USB) bullish scenario:The technical figure Channel Down can be found in the daily chart in the US company US Bancorp (USB). U.S. Bancorp is an American bank holding company. It is the parent company of U.S. Bank National Association, and is the fifth largest banking institution in the United States. The company provides banking, investment, mortgage, trust, and payment services products to individuals, businesses, governmental entities, and other financial institutions. The company also owns Elavon, a processor of credit card transactions for merchants, and Elan Financial Services, a credit card issuer that issues credit card products on behalf of small credit unions and banks across the U.S.The Channel Down broke through the resistance line on 30/11/2022. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 60 days towards 50.00 USD Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 38.39 USD if you decide to enter this position.
Investors will be hoping for strength from U.S. Bancorp as it approaches its next earnings release. The company is expected to report EPS of $1.14, up 6.54% from the prior-year quarter. Investors might also notice recent changes to analyst estimates for U.S. Bancorp. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
JP MORGAN Ahead of a Golden Cross. Strong bullish signal!JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has basically turned sideways since November 11 (despite the marginal November 25 Higher High) putting a pause to the enormous 1-month rally since the October 12 bottom.
The big news on this chart is that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is about to cross above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) to form the infamous pattern of the Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame. This is technically very bullish and in fact the last time we saw this formation was on November 13 2020, almost 2 years ago!
As with today, the price was again just below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, just a few days before the Golden Cross formation and after it was completed, started one of the strongest rallies in recent times, making a new All Time High on January 12 2021, essentially just 2 months after.
Now obviously that was the era of 'cheap money', when the Fed printed trillions of USD in a very short period of time to support the economy during the COVID lockdowns. We can't expect the stock to rally as fast and as aggressively but still, as long as the Golden Cross is formed and the 1D MA50 supports, we can target one Fibonacci level at a time.
Notice how similar the 2020 COVID recovery is with the 2022 (today) one. The 1W MA200 is in a symmetrical place, the 1D RSI was pulling back on the same fractal and the 1W MACD rebounded on the same level.
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$LINK CHAINLINK Officially Found Bottom & Starting A Reversal Why LINK investors might be sitting on a goldmine thanks to proof of reserve
It is often difficult to find winners in the crypto market during a major crash but Chainlink might be it.
Even though its native currency LINK suffered significant downside so far this month, the Chainlink network
continued to see wins as a potential solution. Chainlink can facilitate the proof of reserve which might be the
ideal solution that may help solve some of the cracks unveiled during 2022’s market crash. Chainlink proof of
reserve may help overcome systemic financial risks, as well as contagion risk. Chainlink as an oracle services
provider stood in a position to help facilitate a large-scale adoption of proof of reserve.
Additionally, looking at the current scenario of the market, it could be considered as more of a necessity than
an option. The good thing is that it also offers an opportunity for the market to adapt and grow from recent
challenges. The need for large-scale proof of reserve adoption further outlines an opportunity for Chainlink’s
adoption. It underscores yet another reason why Chainlink’s offerings continue to add value and why the
network has robust long-term potential. Healthy long-term adoption might contribute to more value for LINK.
Chainlink did register healthy growth in the last 30 days.
For example, its supply of LINK held in smart contracts grew substantially during the last four weeks. The same
was observed for its velocity. Both the velocity and supply of LINK in smart contracts dropped significantly in the
last five days. This reflected the impact of last week’s crash on Chainlink’s performance. But will we see a recovery
this week? One of the best ways to assess demand was to look at the balances of top addresses. LINK’s supply of
top addresses registered a sizable drop in the last five days.
However, the good news was that the whales/top addresses are no longer selling. Regardless, we were yet to
see a return of strong buy pressure. Chainlink’s transfer volume also took a bit of a hit in the last few days.
Investors should thus, keep an eye out for the transfer volume to pivot as a confirmation that demand recovery.
Chainlink is a potential game-changer that investors have a keen eye on. The project was launched as an
avant-garde solution to streamline off-chain blockchain projects and transform them into on-chain platforms.
There is no question that LINK has opened a new world of possibilities regarding the intricate world of web3
development. As the company provides curated and in-demand solutions, it’s no surprise that top-tier names
such as Google Cloud, Polygon, and Aave have wholeheartedly embraced that project. Investors and analysts
are confident that Chainlink is on remarkable growth trajectory steering into 2023.
Expect New Alltime Highs Soon!
BNP Paribas (BNP.pa) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the French company BNP Paribas S.A. (BNP.pa). BNP Paribas is a French international banking group. With 190,000 employees as of February 2021, the bank is organized into three major business areas: Commercial, Personal Banking & Services (CPBS), Investment & Protection Services (IPS) and Corporate & Institutional Banking (CIB). BNP Paribas is the largest banking group in Europe, after HSBC, and ninth largest Banking group in the world. The Triangle broke through the resistance line on 04/11/2022. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 37 days towards 52.65 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 41.53 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
BNP Paribas SA joined European peers in getting a lift from rising interest rates, with higher income from lending and debt trading propelling earnings past analysts’ estimates.Net interest income at the Paris-based bank rose 9.6% from a year ago, and fixed-income trading jumped 25%, just ahead of the average for the biggest Wall Street firms.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
10/30/22 BACBank of America Corporation ( NYSE:BAC )
Sector: Finance (Major Banks)
Market Capitalization: 290.715B
Current Price: $36.18
Breakout price trigger: $36.60
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $35.60-$32.65
Price Target: $45.80-$46.50 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 180-191d
Contract of Interest: $BAC 4/21/23 40c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.82/cnt
CaixaBank (CABK.mc) bearish scenarioThe technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart of the Spanish company CaixaBank, S.A. (CABK.mc). CaixaBank, S.A., is a Spanish multinational financial services company. It is Spain's third-largest lender by market value, after Banco Santander and BBVA. CaixaBank has 5,397 branches to serve its 15.8 million customers, and has the most extensive branch network in the Spanish market. It is listed in the Bolsa de Madrid and is part of the IBEX 35. The Triangle broke through the support line on 29/10/2022. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 2.850 EUR. Your stop-loss order, according to experts, should be placed at 3.5860 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
10/23/22 JPMJP Morgan Chase & Co.( NYSE:JPM )
Sector: Finance (Major Banks)
Current Price: $122.23
Breakout price trigger: $123.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $120.00-$112.00
Price Target: $140.40-$142.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 63-68d
Contract of Interest: $JPM 12/16/21 130c
Trade price as of publish date: $3.25/contract
AUDJPYAUJPY broke up the descending channel . It has formed a short term uptrend. In order to buy I am waiting a break - retest of the resistance with a TP level close to the most recent solid resistance I spotted.
Otherwise, if it breaks the current support zoen and retest it pointing down I will go vice versa.
In general BoJ is more dovish while BoA is more aggressive in financial policies.
This makes the AUD more attractive for faster profit comparing to Yen and this might drive to further push to the upside cause the pair is mainly bullish over the last months.
Everything lays to the Break of structure mindset, just observations of where the price has/has no power to surpass and how can this action be depicted with big/ small body candles, wicks, velocity of price action etc. Some retracements are weak and the reversal is easy to be spotted. Other retracements are strong and many traders, included me, can be confused if the break & retest is not valid but in fact the setup might be proven right in the end (despite tight SL which is considered a wrong placed exit point.). It depends on what is the lot size, risk management, in which way someone wants to press him/herself, how much can afford to loose etc.
News can whipsaw and create momentarily fakeouts and push to SL hits and drawdowns. The same applies with big players' games behind the closed doors during weekends. That's why I avoid to put tight SL because it is quite predictable and it is seen by brokers, banks etc.
The above, make me avoid trading on Mondays and after 16:00 on Fridays.
Hope that I help a bit!
Goodl luck!
10/16/22 BACBank of America Corporation ( NYSE:BAC )
Sector: Finance (Major Banks)
Current Price: $31.70
Breakout price trigger: $32.65
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $30.90-$29.00
Price Target: $35.50-$36.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-50d
Contract of Interest: $BAC 12/16/21 32c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.96/cnt
JPM and Banks Report FridayJamie Dimon has set the fear expectation, prior to the banks report this week.
Attached is the JPM CHART on a 15 minute time frame
The lines on the chart are referenced below and on the chart.
Yellow Dotted = Intraday Levels
White Dotted = Daily Chart Levels
I expect the PPI or CPI to be a catalyst for the market to get a counter trend going and Friday bank earnings to be the counter trend continuation. Again, those are my technical thoughts and outlook, of which, could be different from yours', so please stick with your trading rules and risk management.
Will Credit Suisse repeat the fate of Lehman Brothers?Information has appeared on the Internet that the Swiss bank Credit Suisse is highly unstable.
Recall that Credit Suisse is the second largest Swiss financial conglomerate after UBS. This bank covers a large volume of the banking market around the world and if Credit Suisse has problems, the entire world economy will feel it.
The bankruptcy of such a financial institution may also have a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market, since when banks liquidate unprofitable leverage positions, they primarily cut over risky assets, to which the crypt belongs.
A Twitter user under the nickname Alex Good analyzed in detail the future financial results and compared the current situation at Credit Suisse with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers:
twitter.com
Some conclusions:
1. CDS (credit default swaps) - a credit instrument that allows you to hedge the risk of bankruptcy, Credit Suisse bank has exceeded 250 points, which is higher than the maximum of 2009 (the previous financial crisis)
2. Bonds nevertheless show a yield of only 6.4%, which is not significant and does not indicate bankruptcy (yet).
3. CET1 capital adequacy is an indicator of comparing a bank's capital with its risk-weighted assets to determine its ability to withstand financial difficulties.
Credit Suisse has 13.5% (against 10% of Swiss claims, 8% of international claims), at the height of the crisis of 2008-2009 - this indicator was often 5% for banks.
4. The bank has several sources of influence on future financial results:
A) money management fees for rich clients
B) losses of an investment bank that lost substantially during the bankruptcy of Bill Hwang from Archegos
C) penalties for losses from point B
D) unprofitable fund "All Funds"
5. The fall in the price of Credit Suisse shares reflects the forecast of the financial result (-70% to profit) of the bank
6. The bank profits from the increase in rates in the markets, focused on large Chinese clients, after finishing work with the Russian market
7. Asian clients, despite falling markets, make 3 times more transactions than American clients.
8. Several transactions related to the issue of bonds can bring a significant loss to the bank, including a loss from investments in the European leverage index of loans, which generates up to $245M of loss.
9. Also on the horizon is the problem of losing $600M from holding the debt of Citrix.
10. The litigation concerns the corporate culture of Credit Suisse bank, an ex-employee managed to bring a loss of $1.27B to one of the clients and successfully hid it.
And here the question arises - is Credit Suisse and the entire market in danger of repeating the history of Lehman and have we lost sight of the new black swan?
An incident of this scale can bring a financial tsunami to the most risky markets of technology stocks and cryptocurrencies, and the current level of BTC $19K can become the level of $6K BTC in 2018 (it is worth recalling that at the beginning of 2018, bitcoin dropped to $6K, and when the whole Twitter thought that here it is super-large and from here only up - BTC abruptly went to the $3K area (just at the peak of the quantitative tightening program from the Fed).
Another news came out today:
Credit Suisse $CS has stepped up efforts in recent days to sell or reduce stakes in key companies as part of a planned restructuring to remake the bank – WSJ.
By the way, the name of the chairman of the Board of directors of Credit Suisse - Axel P. Lehmann - is nothing but a smile of fate.
What do you think about the future of the global economy?
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Tons of reasons to FEAR but some short term bounce signs show1/
There's a ton of fear atm
#CreditSuisse & #Deutsche_Bank all over $TWTR
How can anyone be bullish?
We warned from last year about the coming #MOAC(Mother of All Crashes) BUT short term there are signs of +, #crypto @ least is holding, needs to lead
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Will only post partial
CapitecJSE:CPI released results, good/bad/whatever, this week. The stock rallied a bit a day before the results, but the market hasn't been kind to JSE:CPI and other banks. Currently the stock is trading near R1560/share. R1530-ish once acted as an area of value, resistance turned support. Will the "support" level hold?
InvestecJSE:INP JSE:INL had an incredible run in 2021. Like most stocks, it's experiencing challenges in 2022. The stock has been trending lower; above R75, it can find support. Below R74 things could be worse. Our charts show that the financial sector, and banks, is weak. Not hopefully that R75 will hold but the market will decide.
9/18/22 GSGoldman Sachs Group, Inc. ( NYSE:GS )
Sector: Finance (Investment Banks/Brokers)
Market Capitalization: $112.036B
Current Price: $326.21
Breakout Price: $335.15
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $325.35-$306.65
Price Target: $361.40-$363.50
Estimated Duration to Target: 60-63d
Contract of Interest: $GS 11/18/22 330c
Trade price as of publish date: $15.45/contract