Risk Events - U.S and Canadian Jobs Numbers People sometimes confuse with trading the economic numbers' reactionary price action as part of "Team Fundamental Analysis" trader. I have a better word for that: Storm Catcher. I have a dear friend who trades this way, (@itsReal307 - his handle in tradingview) unlike most people I've seen, he's done it with success. I have tried it in the past, most of my big losses came from trading this way. So, that my friend of mine, I don't know how he does it, being a storm catcher (or chaser?).
I, however, am a very defensive trader, risk-averse in nature, I would avoid the storm. The price action after NFP numbers, I tend to avoid and stayed on the sidelines, especially if it is against my technical bias and/or against the bias I've determined analyzing the underlying sentiment of the currencies involved (i.e I am bullish bias for USDCAD but the jobs number for the U.S is negative). I believe risk events like NFP, are a great hunting ground for the institutional to stop hunts/manipulate the price/ensuing liquidity runs, hence if you do not know what you're doing (like my friend who does), stay away from trading this at least after 30 minutes of the number's release.
In this chart, showcases how my technical bias contradicts the jobs numbers. I stayed on the sideline for 30 minutes, which in this case, no bullish trigger warranted me to go Long until the following Monday. Risk Events provides liquidity but with the spreads tend to widen and slippages tend to happen, it's best that you just stay away from this risk event.
Banks
$126K Bitcoin by January 1st, 2022The last time bitcoin put out a golden cross on the monthly MACD (January 1st, 2016), there was a 14,819% return before the death cross (on June 1st, 2018). Bitcoin started at $430.89 and ended its run at $6385.71 with highs and lows between the two. The same return at our current golden cross would put us at $126,667.92 on January 1st, 2022.
This is if history were to completely repeat itself and as we all know, it doesn't work like that. Let me know what your price predictions for January 1st, 2022 are below! Would love to hear if you are #short or #long and the reason for your position.
$FSRP Firstrand pref shares could bounce soonSince bottoming out in early 2018, preference shares on the JSE have been one of the best performing asset classes in our market. Always good trading practice to identify the strongest sectors in the market, and look for buying opportunities towards areas where there is a high probability of the trade working out. Looking at FSRP, I have identified that the 200 day moving average (green line) has acted as a good support area when the stock has corrected towards previously. In addition,the level of R82.00 has acted as both solid support & resistance over the last year and it is very likely to be this case once more. On this basis with a shorter term trade outlook, i would be happy to accumulate FSRP between R82.00 - R83.00 and look to bank profits on a bounce towards R86.00 - R88.00. (aware that the stock has recently paid a decent sized dividend, but this shouldn't change the technical view)
Worst case as mentioned if we bleedI have split $1000 between .17 and .11 for a worst case scenario dip. Something about that exchange glitching to .11 cents doesn't make much sense to me....therefore I am adding it to my "idea list"
For you conspiracy theorist... could .11 be the bankers bottom????
Last time the news mentioned ripple being the worse performing asset of the year we got quite a huge jump a few weeks after...
Im looking for the fireworks after 2020 (personally).
Will have a best case scenario post after this.
XAUUSD|Let the Fed decideWith an update to a post i made a week ago, i believed that on the monthly gold(XAUUSD) would fall on that trendline and have another leg up.
This is especially playing out significantly well.
The fed will probably hint at a dovish USD meaning that gold would probably rise further.
Ill keep on holding to this trade.
Key notes: Banks are also long on gold
DOW JONES vs BITCOINThis is the DOW JONES chart. Red area from this chart fits in the yellow area on the bitcoin chart.
The banks and businessmen from the stock market said that bitcoin was a bubble. That's right. But bitcoin recovered calmly from that crash.
Bubbles also exist in the stock markets. If I compare this graph with the Dow Jones, the other ones come with the bitcoin.
Then the DOW JONES is a good example of the stock market collapse. Where it takes years to be able to buy from the biggest bubble ever. Even worse than the Dutch tulip mania.
Recovery will take a long time because DOW JONES took 100 years.
The yellow area in the bitcoin chart is where the dow will fit in and the red area what the stock markets will expect.
So bullish on Bitcoin and short the bankers
GOLD| Bank IdealogyGold Monthly Analysis
With trade wars between the US and China ongoing, we have already seen the impacts of the conflict:
1) Investors moving to safe havens like gold and JPY
therefore, we have seen a surge in Gold prices since last 2 weeks.
Im expecting gold to continue rising as the conflict continues.
Banks are still holding and picking up gold as the market advances. I expect a drop /dip before a safe buy.
Trendline may act as support if looked at the daily chart.
GOLD WHAT TO EXPECT? | 4 Hour AnalysisGOLD 4H ANALYSIS
Trend: Uptrend
Sentiment: Bullish
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Donald Trump recently made a bold statement on his twitter page mentioning:
Things are going along very well with China.
They are paying us Tens of Billions of Dollars,
made possible by their monetary devaluations and pumping in massive amounts of cash
to keep their system going. So far our consumer is paying nothing - and no inflation. No help from Fed!
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This is very bullish news for the USD and we are looking into USD Longs
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Whats the catch?
Gold is inversely related to the Dollar
Therefore, as the DOLLAR rises, gold falls.
We should be expecting gold to DROP to various zones i marked before a rally to the upside.
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Buy Zone 1:
As gold is in a strong trend this news might send it down before a major leg up. Good to place a buy there
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Buy Zone 2:
There was a prominent fake breakout that happened previously. In forex we always tell ourselves to trade what we see.
History might repeat itself and we might see another false breakout.
When that happens, we can contribute it to 2 factors:
1) Market manipulation from Hedge Funds/ Institutions/ Banks
2) Very Bullish USD sentiment
3) External Factors Like AUD news.
This might likely send a rally down. Pick up more buys at this zone.
Will Update
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NOTE:
Dont Look For Shorts, especially when the sentiment for gold is really bullish.
Capital One data breach means nothing - BullFundamental Analysis
It appears Capital One isn’t the only company affected by this--it’s just the first company to publicly acknowledge it has been hacked and the most proactive in addressing the security situation. Meaning... as soon as other companies report the same, they will get the bad attention.
Because of the breach they will lose $150M-300M, which is nothing for this size of a bank.
The real impact might be more of sentiment towards the stock though.
Equifax very recently had a much more significant breach, and the stock just brushed it off.
Technical Analysis
Watch the SMA(50) as support.
OBV and RSI=52, did not reach dangerous levels on this drop.
MACD did cross below the signal, but it is on its way up.
DXY to outperform majors in the coming months. BTC to perform.The world economy has already seen a major slowdown in many economic regions like the Eurozone and China. 70% of ALL countries are experiencing a slowdown in GDP growth, which is comparable to 2008 levels. Italy was expected to have a GDP growth of 1% early in the year, but forecasts have been cut down to 0.2%. Germany was expected to grow by 1.9%, but was later in the year expected to only achieve 0.8% in 2019. That is truly frightening. China the second biggest economy experienced a 1% slowdown in GDP from 6.8% to 5.8%. The US just across the ocean is actually performing quite remarkably with GDP staying at 2.4% consistently throughout the year and only seeing a 0.1% GDP expectation decline. From this, we can almost guarantee that the reserve currency of the world will almost surely outperform every other major currency. Im bullish in DXY and bearish on EURUSD.
Big banks across the planet have cut interest rates to try to stimulate their economies, but the problem is that interest rates have already been low since 2010 leaving little wiggle room to leverage this tool. With a looming recession and economic bubbles in many industries, we might just be on the brink of a global depression. Many people are turning a bad eye towards banks, and how they have mishandled the current situation. Cryptocurrencies might just be a safe haven or a hedge against an economic downturn for those who manage to invest early. The problem I see here is the onslaught of late investors into Crypto that might get killed and lose all their money to another potential crypto bubble. I am bullish on BTCUSD and alts. However, I see BTCUSD performing much better than other coins because of its status amongst the common man and likely the first invstment in crypto that they do.
Dear Loch Ness Monster, Let me fulfil the 6969 - 69420 Prophecy.It is foretold a sequence of sacred numbers lies in rest as they await realisation...
Internet meme minds will collide as they overhaul the tyranny of a super-serious and totally-not-fraudulent banking cosmos. The people are prophesised to fight back against over-reaching institutional power perpetuating unnecessary war and at it's core, immoral but also unsustainable wealth inequality.
Picture Bitcoin as a successful Pac-Man and the ghosts as Wall Street's GFC inducing suits; nom nom nom.
I like trying my hand at predicting the future and my current narrative places us in a similar position right now to the roaring twenties, which was followed by the great depression. Our WW2 is climate change and our New Deal is the Green New Deal. To keep it short, Bernie Sanders and Franklin D. Roosevelt are strikingly similar.
Anyways, bitcoin's price...
I'm requesting the whale of all whales, Mr. Loch Ness to approve of successful bids from 6800, right up and no further than 6969 before the meme consciousness of the universe allows passage through the final stage of an international economic bubble: gains for days and days until our capitalist structure has the devil demanding perfect balance, as all things should be.
What goes up, must come down.
Our extended time period of Neo-Liberalism, Conservatism and Corporatism is coming to an end and sooner rather than later I believe the general population and younger generations are ready to radically change and build a better, more socialised future because we'll have to if the human race is to survive. Don't forget the chaos around the corner due to climate change as literally 100's of millions of people find themselves seeking refuge as they are displaced from their underwater and uninhabitable-ly hot homes.
I welcome the disasters of global warming because what else could bring everyone together beside such a common threat?
Selling Bitcoin at 69420 for the lols and also so I have capital available to short everything.
CITI: The Citi of Compton Rising Wedge, will we hit the target?Rising Wedge, will we hit the target? Will probably take some time to hit it but seeing similar pattern in BAC etc.
Hit me with a follow and let's retire.
CIBC | 40% Short Trade SetupConfirmation: 99.65 (weekly candle)
Invalidation: Local high
Type of Trade: Countercyclical (EMA50 above EMA200)
Target: 56.46
TF: Weekly
Leverage: 2x
Pattern: 1) monthly rising wedge reversal with 2) break of weekly support, and 3) break of major support line.
Monthly view: