Banks
KEY Bank OverboughtLooking very overbought here from this recent Trump Bump, looking to profit on the re-trace, if there is one. Opportunity is here, if it breaks out, could be a good long, if it reverses here, could make for a fantastic short.
Great Near Term Short for Citi GroupRSI is starting to go through the roof, and Williams VixFix is significantly weakening. Almost everytime this has happened since early last year, it pullsback.
Short article on USDCADUSDCAD, 1 Hour.
Elliott Wave - suggests corrective waves (we're basically at the end of the B leg at the time I'm writing this), it might form an advanced pattern to go short. But nothing is complete yet, I'll update this topic when I see changes in the market.
News - RBC (Royal Bank of Canada) as well as other banks changed their mortgage rate (they actually increased it) and investors might not like this, causing a small devaluation of the canadian dollar. According to these news, the pair would do a upward move.
USDollar - We can also see that the US DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) is going up and almost touched a 14-year old high today (November 16th). So theorically, the value of the USD is increasing, and the value of the CAD is decreasing a little bit.
I might go for a short-term LONG position, from B to a little bit higher than A, than take profit (SL just below 5). But to be honest, with the USD going up and CAD going down, I think the currency rate won't be so good for Canadians. (USD/CAD going up on a long-term).
CSGNZ Credit Suisse potential bullish bat pattern on 4Hbuy CHXEUR:CSGNZ @ 10.70 (this idea is for the shares listed on the Swiss Stock Exchange)
UBSGZ potential bullish advanced cypher pattern on daily chartbuy @ 12.20 which is the D-completion of this bullish cypher pattern (please note: this idea refers to the CHXEUR:UBSGZ shares on the Swiss stocks exchange)
#UNICREDIT - NEXT EUROPEAN BANK WITH A BREAKOUTUnicredit is the next European Bank to stage an impressive base breakout. EU Banks are at a turning point, outperforming, and have a lot of catch-up to do. Technicals look great. Unicredit appears to move into a vacuum and I see immediate upside into 2.75/.77
I'm a chart analyst, not a fundamental analyst, but here are a few thoughts what could drive EU Banks outperformance. Fundamentals continue to look awful, however there are a few tailwinds from:
- bank CEO acknowledging structural weaknesses (DBK CEO y'day)
- serious consolidation talks
- FED rate hikes
BAC Breakout playA lot of option activity in Bac the last couple of weeks. Looks like a very good opportunity for a break here based on the interest Hike "hope".
Oriental Bank - Breakout - Consolidation - Next Breakout??It is interesting to watch the price action in this particular banking stock as it first had a high volume breakout from a consolidation and now traders having hesitation to take prices up directly so the price action between buyers and sellers is consolidation in a symmetrical triangle. Looking forward to upside breakout.
The beginning of BAC uptrend?Signals:
double bottom
oncoming breakout of current channel
local flag formation
Buy 15.20 (local flag breakout)
Stop loss 14.69 (-1 tic of current fractal/ flag's low)
Target 18.00 (top line of monthly channel) 21.50 (strong inclined resistance)
Axis Bank in uptrendAxis bank has started it's final wave 5 to new highs. A good buying opportunity (from long term perspective) could arrive IF it comes to retest the upper trendline of the latest correction (as shown by arrows).
RBS long possibilitiesGood chances for buying RBS, what is important: we wait until the rectangle is violated before we do any action.
The main reason that after Brexit the markets are recovering and one of such stocks is RBS.
UCO Bank approaching important supportThis could result in a resumption of the uptrend. A closing above the UTL could confirm this. A break below would negate the setup.
Long Banks: The Fed Has to Raise, Right?In light of the beastly last two NFPs and increasing inflation, I would like the think the Fed will raise rates in September... they probably won't, but that is not the point. XLF has broken out of the nearly year long triangle quite clearly. It is a long. Near term resistance is at 25, however that should be taken out.
Tl;dr: Long XLF
Financials will benefit if the reflation theme continuesRelated to the reflation theme described in my view "Crude Oil: The Most Important Chart in the World".
This trade relates to a steepening of the US yield curve as rates adjust upwards through either rising inflation or a pickup in US growth (or both) having been driven to a record low in June.
BKX Index (candles)
BKX / SPX (blue)
US10Y (grey)
What is interesting to note from a technical perspective is that the BKX index traded within 1% of the 2007 - 2009 61.8% retracement level last July, before bottoming at the 38.2% retracement level in February this year. Since then, yields have continued to fall (grey), but the relative performance of banks versus the S&P 500 (blue) has held firmer and failed to make new lows.
Assuming the reflation theme transpires, banks represent a compelling value play and remain an uncrowded US equity play. Now trading below the $70 level, technically the banks are in the lower half of the last 12 month's trading range and provide a decent payoff in the run up to $80 (61.8% level) with a stop-on-close (weekly) below $57 (38.2%).
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GS - Earnings beats estimates, will it break double bottom?Goldman has topped earnings expectations. CEO Lloyd Blankfein said the firm did well across all of its businesses, despite the uncertainty created by Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
Results highlight
Earnings per share of $3.72 and Revenue of $7.932 billion. Analysts were expecting earnings of $3 a share on revenue of $7.581 billion, according to a Thomson Reuters consensus.
Thoughts on share price
The stock is down 9% this year. What this means is despite recent sharp recovery from June 27 low, there exists a potential for further upside in the pair. Upbeat quarterly results may just be the catalyst for further upside. However, note the strong results may have been priced-in by the markets and if so we could see 'sell the fact' trade.
Double bottom on daily chart
Double bottom neckline stands at 168.90. Monday's closing is 163.33. The recent rally from June low has seen three gap up openings. The third one is usually the sign that 'dumb' money has entered. The larger falling trend line resistance is seen around 167.50.
Unless we do not see a daily closing above double bottom neckline, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. On the other hand, a failure to take out falling trend line over next couple of weeks despite strong quarterly results could yield a fresh drop towards 140 levels.
