Banking on AmericaIt is no mystery that the longer the Fed keeps from raising rates, the harder it is for banks to make money which depresses their stock values. In anticipation of the eventual rate increase, certain banks have taken the brunt of the punishment the past few years as they struggle to restructure to become more efficient in an ever increasingly competitive market but some are showing value when the rates begin to rise.
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SHORT AUDUSD TP 800PIPS: BREXIT, RBA, FED & USDJPY HEDGEShort AUDUSD is in my top 3 FX Trades for several reasons:
1. AUD is considered a riskier G10 currency cross, so AUD trades weaker in risk-off markets, or when equities/ SPX trade lower (you can see the high correlation with SPX at the bottom of the graph).
- With Brexit concurring last week, global risk has increased, this is especially the case for AUD due to commonwealth connections. Therefore AUD is likely to come under pressure in the future as risk-off sentiment continues to dominate, as the US Election nears, Global growth worries continue (Japan, Europe, China) and Brexit/ uncertainty about further Euro Area exits continues to intensify - we can see Gold and US Treasuries continue to gain supporting the risk-off view and thus supporting selling AUD. Also, risk-off encourages $ buying as a safe haven deposit on the Brexit backdrop.
- Further, going into earnings season next week, historically risk currencies (AUD) perform poorly as investors seek safer assets to hedge against earning surprises, thus this helps AUD selling and USD buying. Plus, most investors will want to hold some $ cash in order to fulfil their earnings based equity trading, so this also helps the short AU trade by increasing $ demand relative to AUD.
2. The RBA Meeting on Tuesday the 5th is likely to be dovish, as 1) Brexit risks are weighed in on again, after supportive/ dovish statements from RBA members following the Brexit decision and 2) AUD Macro Environment has performed poorly since the last meeting and the May Rate cut e.g. Retail sales 0.2% vs 0.3%, Unemployment flat at 5.7%.
- However, I dont expect an RBA rate cut, as they cut last just 2 months ago in May by 25bps to 1.75% and their GDP print was firm at 3.1% v 2.8% yoy and 1.1% v 0.8% with Unemployment also stable (yet to see inflation), so I expect them to provide reassurance to markets with a strong dovish tone, with possible hints to a August rate cut - citing Brexit and looking forward to their end of July Inflation print as a gauge for further rate cuts. Nonetheless the dovish rhetoric should be strong enough to put pressure on AUD and tip the scales south supporting the AU short.
3. From a USD demand point of view, last week we saw USD lose 160pips against the AUD as Brexit Uncertainty negatively hit the Feds Rate hike cycle expectancy, flattening the curve in the front end which ruled out any hikes until Dec or 2017, fewer hikes = less USD strength.
- However, since the beginning of the week where brexit risks ruled out hikes in the near term, the end of the week managed to turn rate hike expectations around as Brexit likelihood decreased/ shifted into 2017. This helped the Fed fund futures curve recover/ steepen somewhat in the front end, with the implied probability of a hike increasing from 0% to 5.9% for both September and November, whilst the probability of a hike in December also steepened significantly from 13.3% to 22.3% with the probability of a 50bps hike being priced for the first time at 1.1%. This trend of Fed Hike recovery is likely to continue as long as Brexit risks remain subdued, so we can expect USD to begin to price stronger in the coming days/ weeks.
4. Technically, AUDUSD trades 100pips away from a key handle at 0.76xx which is a double top and may provide the ideal short area. Further, higher than that at 0.78xx is the 12 month high which is also potentially a great level to get short from as a double top
5. Volatility - 1wk, 2wk and 1m (-1.52, -1.57, -1.60) AUDUSD Risk Reversals all trade with a downside bias indicating put/ downside demand is higher than upside, so the option market net expects AUDUSD to come down over the above tenors.
- Out through the 5th, 6th, and 7th (post RBA) we see large notional OTM put options and open interest at 0.7365, 0.7440 & 0.7445 which supports the view that the RBA will be dovish and that AUDUSD is likely to hairpin around the 0.76xx double top level.
Relief Rally In Global EquitiesGlobal Equities are experiencing a relief rally after a bizarre turn on events. For some reason, the brazen murder of British M.P Jo Cox turned the increasingly large "leave" vote around, and the "remain" vote regained the led heading into Thursday's Brexit vote.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index jumped off of technical support of 2,814 but still remains in a clear downtrend of 2015's bubble-high of 3,837. Since last year's top, the index has made several lower-lows, and the current trend from the bear market bottom has etched out two clear lower-highs.
Given the state of the brief risk aversion seen last week as the "leave" vote took a pronounced lead, global were "due" for a rebound. As alerted earlier last week, the near-term momentum was set for a shift:
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If you look across European equities, the prospects are not turning out like many thought. In regards to the Euro Stoxx 50, price action does not get interesting until a close above the near-term, broken uptrend AND prevailing downtrend is confirmed. The 200-day EMA will be a key pivot point. The index has not been able to trade above this dynamic resistance since last December.
Wait for price to trade into resistance near 3,000/025. MacroView does not expect Britain to leave the European Union, but there are far too many risks to get excited about.
Check out Bloomberg's Brexit tracker, currently showing a small Brexit lead.
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BARCLAYS $BARC - Brexit fears holding back breakout.We have to keep instruments like this under a close eye over the coming week. Although a lot of indicators and paterns pointing to a breakout, it is clear that Brexit worries are keeping it down for now. I expect it to be a flat week until Thursday evening/Friday Morning of the 24th. Neautral
But I like the repeating Head & Shoulders bottoming patterns!
Short the BanksUS banks overpriced in relation to EU and Japan banks
Uptrend broken
Ribbon pointing down
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Stoxx bank index - Failed breakout, larger down trend intactConcerns surrounding Europe's banking sector suddenly seemed to have vanished away from the markets. However, Stoxx 600 index chart clearly shows the larger falling trend line is intact and a bullish break from a smaller symmetrical triangle failed.
Caution is advised at least as long as the larger falling trend line isn't breached.
Banks woke up after FedFundamentals :
According to minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, U.S. central bankers feel it would be time to raise rates at the next Fed meeting on June 14-15 if hiring and economic growth continue to strengthen and inflation keeps rising. Higher rates are good for Banks and bad for Utilities and REITs.
Technicals :
Banking sector was a laggard compare to broad market but recently has been holding near year's highs. With yeasterday's reaction to Fed's announcment, it triggered an initial Entry after break and close above trend line. I am curful here, as it is only 1 day action and could be erased.
Trade Management :
Break of bull flag triggered at $23.20 with respective stop at $23. If it builds udner the highs $23.77 new set up, I will add with Target at $24.70 (2015 highs)
Oil Price stress on Banks with energy exposureOil price recovery has been mostly driven by USD related factors and so the fundamentals are still not where they need to be and the chronic oversupply continues. The banks with the largest energy debt exposure have felt the squeeze as a result and remain relatively risky.
This chart shows the performance of the banks with the largest declared Energy debt exposure in the US vs the XLF ETF and wider S&P 500 Index, the backdrop is the Oil price.
XLF- Which way to goI'd say closer to a short than a long, but we still need a clearer picture. A break 24.5/25 would be bullish, a break below 20 or so, bearish. THink we will move one way or the other in the coming months based on important fundos such as Spanish Election, Brexit, US election, China, etc.
BEARISH BBAS3BBAS3 (Banco do Brasil) releases earnings this Thursday. As happened with other Brazilian banks they must trigger sells (ex: ITUB4, BBDC4). Being a state owned bank must intensify plunge.
I should start to buy a put spread (between 18.50 and 17.50) today to take advantage of this movement.