PACW PacWest Bancorp Breaking Out With VolumeWhile Bank Regulators are trying to put together a package to save FRC First Republic Bank with JPM and Morgan Stanley, other hammered regional banks are looking like a bottom. PACW has a book value of 29.50 and a cash per share value of 17 dollars per share. FDIC Insured deposits account for 40 percent of total deposits, making a run less likely than FRC which has a 20 percent of depositors . These are compared to SVIB and SBNY which had a total of 3% and 6% insured by FDIC.
Banks
BTC Video Update 📹 Analysis #30/50Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard Nasr, also known as theSignalyst.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD shortI am looking for EURUSD to go down here this morning. I think that Unemployment Claims news release will bring it down here. I may fall directly on 8.30 or another scenario will be it mitigates the 1.06500 (bank number) level and than falls. I am not taking a trade the first minutes of the news, I will look for an entry on the 1 min timeframe after it makes the manipulation.
FRC to $42The price spring should it break and hold should be fairly large and fast. It currently broke a major trend to the downside and hit an exit. It also has fairly smooth sailing should it break to the upside tomorrow. Exit trade should the blue trend break or should the stock price reject off the red trend. Buy the dips on the trend until it breaks, and then sell on the bottom side of the trend.
"Something will break!" and something did break and is breaking!Traders,
In light of the recent Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank crashes and the Fed following this up with a guarantee to depositors, its spells inflation on. This gives us a big clue to how the market will respond and continues to support my thesis of a blow-off top in the next few months. Let's take a look as to how we should handle this information.
Stew
💾 TD Holdings, Inc. | A Safe Bank, Something Different! (10th)We have a very strange finding here and something quite different.
This is the 10th largest banking corporation in the USA by market capitalization.
All the other banks had very similar if not identical charts, the exact same patterns, the same cycles, the same disconnect... TD Holdings, Inc. (GLG) is absolutely different.
The stock GLG peaked in August 2020 and then went on a strong downtrend... I hope I have the right ticker and I doubled check... It hit bottom guess when, May 2022 which is when the first set of Cryptocurrencies hit bottom.
Here is the chart:
This can mean many things.
Once we hit bottom, the only place left to go is up.
This bank might be doing it right and not gambling with peoples money... Not sure but the pattern is different.
When the upcoming banking system crash comes, TD Holdings, Inc. is very likely to be going up rather than down.
Every since the May 2022 bottom it has been producing higher lows in a consolidation pattern.
This one might be a good call, it is in the TOP10 yet it already hit bottom and is gearing up to go up.
P.S. This analysis can be invalidated on a close below May's low, the charts can always change.
Namaste.
$NDX posts impressive rally! $DJI pumps but OIL & BANKS holdDidn't get the bottom but got most of this intraday rally.
Went green & we covered all exposure done today.
Very nice day!
Could rally more but WE ARE DONE.
Going to park in a few to hang out with the girls.
$TQQQ $UDOW $COIN#UDOW #TQQQ #COIN #stocks #trading
$NDX loosk MUCH better vs $DJIWe can see intraday that #banking exposure is less on the #QQQ vs #DJI
Nibbled on #TQQQ this morning.
Don't be surprised if it goes green today, at least short term.
We may get some sort of push before EOD, doesn't mean risk is over.
TRADING
$QQQ $TQQQ #stocks
💾 Capital One Financial Corporation | Financial DetoxI started a series with the TOP10 largest bank in the USA.
I went all the way through 8 and stopped... Let us finish now.
Capital One (COF) is the 9th largest bank in the USA, the chart is also bearish and has been bearish since August 2021.
This banking corporation as well as others have been going down for more than a year and the final phase of the bear market is about to take place.
The type of correction we are witnessing is a Zig-Zag, 5-3-5.
We have the initial 5-down mapped out, then the WXY correction and a new 5-down wave pattern starting to develop.
This is Elliot Wave theory that I now mix together with my classic signals.
The 0.618 Fib. retracement support level for the inflationary, money printing, bull-market of 2020-2021 has been broken. The current price trades below this level and closing below it confirms lower prices.
Likely to close below based on all the bearish signals coming from this chart.
✔️ We have an established downtrend.
✔️ There is a bearish cross on the MACD (chart below).
✔️ The RSI trending lower.
MACD:
As I mentioned in my latest Bitcoin article, we still have some turbulence to go through in 2023.
2024 Everything should start to get better.
All the weak banks will be flushed out and a new cycle will start. Just as we saw with Crypto where the gambling/weak companies were removed, the bear market works the same all across.
Let's call it a "financial detox" once more.
Namaste.
💾 Bank Of Nova Scotia Bearish | Cryptocurrency Can Save You!I like this bank, I personally use it and they have been around for more than 100 years I think...
I can see now why they are panicking but should they be worrying after being around for so long?
The market moves in cycles... After a crash down comes a wave up.
Anyway, the main support for the Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS) is the Fib. retracement level at 64.95.
Closing below it will lead to a major drop leading to 56.78 as the next support.
This can go on and on until the bigger cycle unravels completely.
Many banks will die forever but many will survive, adapt and change, adopt some form of Cryptocurrency technology and continue playing this game.
The ones that will survive will be the ones that are willing to change and adapt to the current times.
The ones that will die will be the ones that refuse to accept reality.
Life is always changing.
Everything is always changing.
Imagine how everything looked like just 50 years ago... Imagine 80 years ago.
If the companies of the past did not adopt the technology, all technologies, these are gone.
The companies that bought computers, the Internet, setup a website and email, are the ones that went to the top.
Just as you needed floppy disks and an Internet connection through a land line to stay on top...
In the present day, 21st century my friends, you need to accept Cryptocurrency to stay on top.
Namaste.
Math matters again, stock index valuations reverting to mean avgmake math great again!
DJI dow in this chart failed to break out higher and now looking for fair value amid panic.
Credit Suisse, back in headlines today, banks getting balance sheet help, gold threatening higher.
Im sure there are many baby boomers who need their retirement that strong considering taking profits and taking 4-5% this month.
5% on bonds is like 20 PE with less risk.
20 pe in stocks comes with 30 to 50% potential if they dont keep growing.
businesses earning shrink in recession and PE valuations come down.
do the math.
XAUEUR breaking the up trend channel for more upside push!At the beginning of the year OANDA:XAUEUR broke the down side channel. While banks are bankrupting, we see once again gold is the safe heaven for many people. Most importantly for the central banks which have been accumulating physical gold. FED and ECB will struggle to further increase the interest rates. We may see new ATH within a couple of months! Crazy times again.
Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
⚠️ 🔥 No Time to FOMO!!!! ⚠️ 🔥⚠️ 🔥 NO TIME TO FOMO!!!! ⚠️ 🔥
Goodday for the markets and Crypto as the news came out being ok:
US inflation slows to 6% annual rate amid looming banking crisis
Let me rephrase it: the worst news where avoided, inflation did not rise. Look at CPI chart maybe:
SP-5OO gets rejected despite the predictions for a 'softer more dovish' monetary policy:
In the meantime bank charts look pretty bad to me:
What i called 'good scenario' level did work as support for BKX but it will be retested:
Also, Credit Swiss is nothing but bad news:
www.bloomberg.com
Lastly , i really don't like this rejection on Wells Fargo:
In a few words: let's be careful...
No love these days, just volatility.
The FXPROFESSOR
Oil heavy-Crude Oil still stuck in a channel threatening lowerprice action indicates pressure to the downside.
with banks getting bailed as consequence of rates, it doesnt exactly say "booming" economy, does it.
All of these recent days are inside days. so presuming oil is bearish is just an opinion until it breaksout either way.
but it sure looks like pressure will be to the downside. Heating oil, gasoline, and nat gas all are showing weakness.
Has XLF caught support after todays drop?To be honest i don't know where XLF will go from here. With my current skill level and studies, I think we can go a little more lower. What do you guys think? Comment Below
Bank RUN!That's right!
What we are witnessing is money flowing directly out of banks, and into Bitcoin as a result of the recent demonstration of fragility within the banking system by the default of Silicon Valley Bank.
This appears to have triggered a mass flow of money out of banks - looking for any alternative at all.
Bitcoin is surging as a result and this could become extreme if it accelerates.
It's time for Bitcoin to shine for it's robust antifragility!
$DJI has HUGE BUY volume the last few hours$DJI bounce decently off support on daily charts.
This may take some time to heal. However, IF #stocks can hold for the next few hours it can be okay.
The only reason it's not pumping higher is $GS & $JPM, #banks.
On the 4Hr we see a DOJI formed MORE than 4 hours ago & on the CURRENT 4 hr candle it is being ENGULFED WITH VOLUME.
We want to see a close above 32k but higher will mean more conviction.
The belief is that #rates will take a pause while we have this bank fiasco happening.
32500 is our full exit point. Although we have been loosening positions in this rally for the last couple hours.
Would keep re-buying lightly on pullbacks. Bottoms can take some time to form.
Regional Bank Fears Continue... 😮💨Saturday night i decided to take a look at all major bank charts. I called 3 potential 'dangerous ones' and ended up guessing 2 of them right. One of them was First Republic. (you can ask me for proof if you are interested to confirm this).
“First Republic’s capital and liquidity positions are very strong, and its capital remains well above the regulatory threshold for well-capitalized banks,” Jim Herbert, First Republic’s founder and executive chairman, and CEO Mike Roffler said in a statement.
First Republic lists $213 billion in assets. The lender reached out to customers over the weekend in a bid to reassure them.
“In light of recent industry events, the last few days have caused uncertainty in the financial markets,” First Republic senior executives said in an email to clients viewed by CNN. “We want to take a moment to reinforce the safety and stability of First Republic, reflected in the continued strength of our capital, liquidity and operations.”
The federal bank rescue announced Sunday should help ease some of the pressure on the banking system, Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN.
“But this is not a permanent solution and this will not be the final chapter in this story,” he said.
What's next?
Uncertainty.. I hope all goes well but in the meantime remember to look at Bitcoin . Just my humble opinion, perhaps I am right.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Real Estate Bank gone bad.... Join The #Bitcoin Alliance maybe?Saturday night i decided to take a look at all major bank charts. I called 3 potential 'dangerous ones' and ended up guessing 2 of them right. One of them was Western Alliance Bancorporation. (you can ask me for proof if you are interested to confirm this).
Western Alliance Bancorporation: Uncertainty Prevails seekingalpha.com :
Shares of the Western Alliance Bank (NYSE:WAL) have fallen victim to the uncertainty which materialized at light breaking speed in the financial sector in the second half of last week. The bank has similarities to the troubled SVB Financial Group as these (perceived) similarities, (even if they are not applicable to the same extent) create massive uncertainty here. Consequently, investors are selling first and depositors withdrawing before asking questions.
A Quick Intro
Western Alliance Bank is a Phoenix-headquartered bank which employs over 3,000 workers across more than 50 offices. After a though time during the recession of 2009, the company has seen a solid recovery. Originally founded as the Bank of West Nevada in the 1990s the company went public in 2005 and subsequently has steadily grown, surpassing the $50 billion asset market in 2021.
The company describes itself as a national banking platform with (remote) offices located throughout the country, although many branches are located in the Western part of the country. The company has ten folded its asset base over the past decade, as that growth has come with greater diversification in the loan book (to borrower categories) as well. That said, 37% of the loan book is lent out in California and a substantial amount of loans is geared towards real estate.
What's next?
Uncertainty.. I hope all goes well but in the meantime remember to look at Bitcoin. Just my humble opinion, perhaps I am right.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Biggest Drop since 2008 - Right After our Post 🙄Good that I always TRUST my Charts:
US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has dropped 'nicely' since my last post, which was 'against the stream' since when i posted it Powell was being extra-Hawkish and situation was different.
News:
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell sharply on Friday as the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank sparked a flight to safer assets such as government bonds.
The yield shed at least 46 basis points over a two-day period, a sudden decline not seen since September 2008 , when the markets were in the throes of the global financial crisis. Perhaps by no coincidence, the flight to bond safety this week was caused by the biggest bank failure since the financial crisis.
These were supposed to be 'Good news', rates could ease and markets (and crypto) could do better but unfortunately it all happened for the wrong reasons: Some Banks going bust.
Better check my other posts today.
Everything changes FAST so watch out for the CPI tomorrow: If inflation is better the Feds are saved...if inflation persists we could ALL be in DEEP trouble.
One Love,
The always optimistic Professor
💾 PNC Financial Services Group Looks Very Bad | Crash AheadIt is a repeat, the same over and over... Some banks are doing better than others which is expected yet PNC isn't part of the better group, this one looks pretty bad.
The previous bank had no volume on the drop, here we have high volume... Let me show you!
PNC Weekly:
✔️ PNC broke below EMA300 this week.
✔️ Bear volume has been increasing since Oct. 2021 and it keeps on going higher.
✔️ The MACD looks really bad and the RSI as well.
The crash is already pretty advanced but it can go much lower.
✔️ The monthly chart reveals the true story... It seems we are looking at the worst crash in 15 years.
The bear market should go fast in comparison with the bull market.
Ever since the Federal Reserved was established bear markets became short in duration and bull markets long, because troubled institutions could easily access credit once the central bank was established.
Before the Federal Reserve it was the opposite, bear markets were really long and bull markets short.
Everything has its positive and negative aspects.
I am getting tired of these... Not sure if I will make it to write the TOP10.
Namaste.
🅱️ Are Decaying Banks A Bearish Bitcoin Signal?One of the main arguments we hear against Bitcoin is the fact that the conventional markets are to set crash really strong and this should take Bitcoin down with them.
The argument goes like this.
Install parrot like voice first.
But, Bitcoin is a "risk-asset", if Johny the banker goes broke then all risk-assets must crash.
The key word of course is the "must".
People are making arguments and predictions all of the time based on assumptions.
If this happens this something else "must" happen... All based on assumptions.
Nothing "must" happen, what will happen is whatever happens.
To destroy their argument completely, let's just go back to the basics.
Bitcoin is not a "risk-asset".
Bitcoin is only a "risk-asset" to a certain cohort, a certain group of people, in a certain town/city in a certain country.
✔️ Bitcoin is a new form of money.
✔️ Bitcoin is a technology, as well as digital cash.
✔️ Bitcoin is sound, hard money.
✔️ Bitcoin is the future of money.
✔️ Bitcoin was invented to protect consumers against decaying banks.
The banks have been trying to kill Bitcoin for a long time now... Banks somehow look at Bitcoin as competition and they do not like competition.
Banks crashing is a bullish signal for Bitcoin, not a bearish one.
But, but... Bitcoin is a "risk-asset".
Only if you are wealthy and buying Bitcoin to diversify your portfolio in order to make cash. For the rest of the world, Bitcoin is money, Bitcoin is freedom, Bitcoin is a technology that gives them back their power and protects them against abusive and highly fractionalized addicted to gambling banks.
Don't you agree?
Namaste.
💾 Goldman Sachs Group Worst Since 2008 | Major Crash AheadI was about done but couldn't stop this without looking at the infamous Goldman Sachs Group, this is the 8th biggest bank corporation in the USA.
The peak/All-Time High here was hit November 2021, together with Bitcoin and most of the worlds financial assets... Let's start with the weekly chart:
✔️ In January 2023 we saw the highest selling volume week since February 2016. This tells us that the insiders know what is coming and started the sell-off early on.
✔️ This week pushed GS below EMA50 and EMA100.
✔️ We are at the 4th consecutive week closing red and the financial bleeding seems to just be starting.
✔️ The RSI trending down like there is no tomorrow and the MACD histogram has gone red with a bearish cross.
I'll show you the MACD because the bearish cross is always quite revealing:
The monthly is the main chart above, the real bad news.
✔️ GS was still trading above EMA10 last month, breaking below this very same week. This tells us that there is still plenty of room for this stock to go lower.
✔️ The MACD is still above 0 (bullish) but trending lower.
✔️ The RSI is still strong (above 50) but in a downtrend.
The biggest disconnect from reality so far from any bank can be seen on this chart.
The Goldman Sachs Group (GS) holders, buyers, traders or whatever you want to call them, haven't been selling, they are still holding strong.
Some people are going to experience a rude awakening... The worst is yet to come.
The banking system is going down, that's my conclusion after reading all these charts.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
