JPM - The banking crisis is not overBesides the obvious head & shoulders, as you increase the timeline from 1M to 2, 3 or 6M the more horrendous it gets.
Massive bearish divergence in RSI.
Price being rejected at the 25 MA, that will most likely lead to a death cross
MACD being rejected at the signal line after the inflated march 2020 pump (looking even more rubbish at higher timeframes)
PPO printing a bearish alert for the first time in its history at 6M (not shown)
I think it will fall to the 0.786 retracement /400 monthly MA / previous top of 50$ minimum . It can go much lower as the MACD suggests, but a 70% is a common retracement for a JP Morgan bear trend and every time it enters a bearish market a retracement to its previous top and to the monthly 400 MA is a guaranteed target.
I think this won't affect negatively the cryptomarket as some people suggest.
Bankstocks
XBK.AX ~ Snapshot TA / ASX 200 Banks IndexChart mapping/analysis for ASX 200 Banks Index ASX:XBK
Constituents:
- Big 4 Banks = ASX:ANZ ASX:CBA ASX:NAB ASX:WBC
- Mid Tier = ASX:BEN ASX:BOQ ASX:JDO ASX:VUK
- Small Banks = ASX:ABA ASX:BBC ASX:BFL ASX:KSL ASX:MYS
Note: Macquarie Group Ltd classified as Diversified Financials but also facilitates Banking ASX:MQG
ASX ETFs
- Pure-Play Banks: ASX:MVB
- ASX Financials (Banks/Insurance Providers): ASX:OZF ASX:QFN
Global Banks ETF: ASX:BNKS
CAPITALCOM:AU200 ASX:XJO ASX:XFJ
Retested and moving up to $160Daily Chart
On daily timeframe, JP Morgan Chase & Co ( NYSE:JPM ) has broken and retested the support around $144. That means price will go up after retest completed.
I expect JPM can go up to $160 that level very fit with Fibo Extension Tool (1.618 Re)
Wait and see next move
DPST a triple leveraged bullish ETF for Regional Banks LONGWhile tracking regional banks DPSt had a bad time in the spring with the
small and regional bank failures/rescues and the federal actions to buttress the faith of
citizens in them. There has been no runs on the banks. Larger banks may be taken
some business from small banks sattled with securities with diminished
value due to rising interest rates and the effect on the face value of those
fixed-rate securities. No matter, things are better now. This is not to say
the whole banking sector stress is resolved. Banks have enjoyed great
returns on credit cards. The 15-minute chart here shows a good overall
uptrend within ascending parallel support and resistance trendlines.
Price is presently at the bottom of that parallel channel. The relative
trend index signal is near zero meaning at least in this instance trend
is fairly quiet with low volatility. Relative strength lines have bounced
up from the lows of about 20 and now are in the 40-50 range.
Overall, I see this as a good entry point for a long-swing trade targeting
the top of the channel which I estimate will be about 100 buy the
end of next week estimating the trade duration to be 5 trading days.
My reasonable opinion is that next week's volatility will be far less than
this past week and that DPST will do well. I will also take a look at
the KRE and KBE ETFs. I like this as a long setup with a 15% potential
for a ver low risk in a stop loss set $.50 below the channel.
Bank Stocks Are Back To Bullish ModeBank stocks have collapsed back in March, but don't forget that markets go from pessimism (fear) to optimism (greed) and vice versa. Looking at the KBE (Bank Sector ETF) chart, we can see a completed three-wave A-B-C corrective decline after a five-wave rally, which gives us a nice bullish setup formation. So, after reaching important 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and GAP from November 2020, we may easily see bulls back in the game, especially now that is trying to break first bullish evidence level. However, keep in mind that bullish confirmation is only above channel resistance line and 50 region, while it's above the 30 invalidation level.
US banks face large capital increases under final Basel plan.
$KRE Testing Double TopTechnical Analysis for AMEX:KRE Testing Double Top and 150 day moving average.
Banks are nearing a resistance level. The KBW Bank Index (BKX) and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) have both been on a strong upward trend in recent weeks, but they are now approaching their respective 150-day moving averages. These moving averages are important technical indicators, and they often act as resistance levels.
If the BKX and KRE break above their 150-day moving averages, they could continue to move higher. However, if they fail to break above these levels, they could pull back and consolidate.
For those with quick profits, it may be a good idea to take the money and run. The risk of a pullback is increasing as the BKX and KRE approach their 150-day moving averages.
The circumstance at present for each (the BKX and KRE) can be characterized as “a rally to a difficult level where overhead supply comes into play”. This means that there is a lot of selling pressure at these levels, and it could be difficult for the BKX and KRE to break through.
If you are still bullish on banks, I would recommend waiting for a pullback before buying. This would give you a better entry point and reduce your risk.
MS Morgan Stanley Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of MS Morgan Stanley prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-18,
for a premium of approximately $0.82.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Keeps pushingPrice keeps pushing higher. It found the downtrend resistance but it wasn't pushed back down to hard. Actually the price is testing again the resistance and I think eventually is going to break up. We may see another small rejection but bulls are in control at the moment. The nice this thing about this trade is that Citigroup pays dividends (%4.03 yield, not bad). So you can enjoy the dividends while you wait for a break up.
DPST- Banks will thrive if rate hikes are over LONGDPST is shown here on the 15- minute chart- This triple leveraged bank stock hit
a double bottom in late June and early July with a double bounce from the lines one
standard deviation below the mean VWAP lines anchored at pivots in mid-May. These
lines provide dynamic support and resistance unlike vertical lines from pivots. From
the VWAP breakout, price has crossed over the mean VWAPs and is not at the level of
the volume profile's POC line and the one standard deviations above the mean VWAP.
The two time frame RSI indicator shows the lower time frame rising from below 20
to over 50 and crossing over the higher black line TF RSI is for me a clear and convincing
sign of bullish momentum in its extreme form.
Fundamentally, bank stocks are gaining in the federal news data regarding CPI and PPI.
Based on this analysis, I will take a long trade here targeting the second deviation lines
at about $70.5 representing about a11% upside in one week or less.
Bank of Baroda Breaks Out of Triangle Pattern: Bullish Momentum
Bank of Baroda(stock symbol: BANKBARODA) has been trading within a triangle pattern since December 2022, but it has recently broken out of this pattern. During the triangle formation, the stock tested the lower trendline six times, and each time it tested, a substantial rally followed. On June 19, 2023, the stock broke above the upper trendline with decent volume, indicating a potential bullish move.
Currently, the stock is retracing and retesting the upper trendline to validate the strength of the buyers. Traders looking for an entry point may consider observing candlestick patterns such as a hammer or engulfing candle that could serve as potential entry triggers. Setting a stop loss below the identified candle pattern can help manage risk.
The initial target for Bank of Baroda is set at 201.60. If the stock continues to show strength, the second target is at 206.65, and the final target is at 215.85. It is important to note that Bank of Baroda can be traded in the equity or futures and options (FnO) segment.
Please remember that trading involves risks, and it's always advisable to conduct thorough analysis and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Bank Nifty Trade Setup (29-May-2023)This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to initiate trade according to this setup. This is for only for my learning purpose and maintaining my trading journal.
As posted in previous day setup that from price as Banknifty is in parallel channel with 44151 to 44071 as resistance zone and 43470 to 43370 as support zone and on 26-May-2023 price was near support zone after a sell off in previous sessions and it took support near that support zone and moved all the way up to resistance zone moving almost 400 points in a day. so far it was a good session and worked as per trade setup.
( Cannot post previous day chart to keep record of this price action have to look for previous day trade setup.)
For tomorrow this will be my trade setup:
1.) If opens flat which is near resistance zone. if price doesn't hold near this resistance on 15 min TF then will look for selling after break of nearby support of 43880. If price took support on break of this resistance zone i will look for buying. (Views are bullish so will only trade against the primary trend with strict stop loss and target levels.
2.) If opens gap up above resistance zone and if takes supports above the resistance zone on 15 min TF with good candle pattern and volume. then will look for buying only for target will be open with stop loss of 44151 (ATH).
3.) If opens gap down at nearby support 43880 will look for price to take support or if it became resistance and target will be as per this parallel channel support zone which is 43750, 43650 and 43500.
Things to keep in mind:
As mentioned above views are bullish so will trade cautiously against the primary trend with strict stop loss and target level on downside.
Hit like to keep me motivated for keeping my trading journal as it only take less then few seconds to hit like but it gives me motivation for preparing for my session. also one can comment how i can make it better or need any improvements in my trading setups and improving this journal. as this is my only trading journal not keeping any excel or any online sheets as i never used before.
They Will Protect the Banks, FRC is a LayupFirst Republic bank has been slaughtered due to the banking crisis in the US. FRC is backed by JP Morgan, the strongest bank on earth. Unless the Gov't wants all regional banks to fail and roll it all up in to the big banks, FRC should survive and if it survives, it can easily double from here. Obviously the sentiment on this stock and bank stocks in general are terrible right now, we'll see if that changes. If the stock falls into the single digits from here I will close the position.
Artificial Banks Wane: Bitcoin Ushers in Financial Epoch This chart shows a view of the top 8 banks in the United States and the charts go back to at least 2008 so you may see how artificial the bubble is.
As the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hikes, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the banking sector. This trading strategy anticipates potential instabilities in major banks, which could catalyze a significant migration towards decentralized finance solutions such as Bitcoin. Higher rates could strain over-leveraged banks, leading to a fall in their value, while Bitcoin could rise as an alternative financial refuge.
COMBINED TOTAL OF ALL 8 BANKS = 1.5 Trillion
1. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): $391.88 billion
2. Mastercard Incorporated (MA): $360.32 billion
3. Bank of America Corp. (BAC): $218.28 billion
4. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): $151.81 billion
5. Morgan Stanley (MS): $137.6 billion
6. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): $106.65 billion
7. Citigroup Inc. (C): $88.48 billion
8. U.S. Bancorp (USB): $46.62 billion
The colossal $1.5 trillion valuation of these traditional banking institutions may give an illusion of robustness, yet this façade might not withstand the test of an evolving financial landscape. These banks, laden with their outdated models and susceptibility to Fed's rate hikes , represent a realm of finance that is increasingly becoming unsustainable. I believe a significant portion of the capital currently tied in these institutions is likely to flow into more resilient, decentralized financial systems such as Bitcoin. By doing so, investors may pivot from a seemingly sinking ship to a dynamic and emergent financial framework, embracing the future of finance with open arms.
KRE Is a reversal underway?KRE the regional bank ETF is down about 50 % YTD, with a couple of bank failures leading the
way. The question that arises is whether there is more downside. Faith and trust in the
the banking system is at risk. The big banks came in their rescue on First Republic. A run on
the little banks can hurt the big banks even Goldman Sacks. Holding treasuries with fixed
rates lower than current rate sucks for sure. The fed will clean up this mess and will
do it right and has started that process. KRE chart with the fisher transform indicator
and the zero-lag MACD tells me that KRE is now " reverting to the mean" & dropped below
the Fibonacci bands of the basis EMA. Line crossovers on the indicators are confirmatory.
I will seize the situation and add to my long position. Due you agree that this is picking low
laying fruit?
The END is NEARNow I understand there are a lot of shenanigan's going on in the banking sector, but I'm not going to pretend to know how exactly this will affect the price of bank stocks. Everyone and their mom is now bearish on bank stocks from the constant news of bank failures and if I've learned anything from the markets is that the market always moves against the crowd. So I make my decisions strictly from the price action and volume obtained from charts.
BAC has been trending on this blue support line since 2016.
You can even take it back to 2011. Each time it has bounced off of this blue trend line. However this time, it will be different. This time we had an inverse head and shoulder from which price broke down with SIGNIFICANT volume
Although the price has bounced from the blue trend line for right now, it has already rejected the previous support of the inverse head and shoulders at $30. Validating the breakdown with more downside to come. The fact that a bearish pattern broke down with such high volume right above the extremely strong blue trend line tells me price action is gathering strength to be able to break below this blue trend line after years of support. When this break below occurs, it will be nasty. A rapid fall in price, not slow and drawn out. An optimistic bounce area will be between 24 to 23. However, a break of a trend line this strong can only be accomplished with significant strength, in this case bearish strength. I see BAC falling to the 19.5 to 17.5 dollar range, an area that previously was a resistance but is now a support. When will this break down happen? I don't know, but price action is showing it is bound to happen in the upcoming future. Possibly after earnings are all done with.
Regional Banks are telling us everything about this market!Traders,
Though, I've expressed this all along this past year, regional banks are now confirming everything I've stated regarding JPOW and the FED only having two choices about the future of the U.S. economy: deflationary recession/depression OR hyper-inflationary recession/depression. The line in the sand has been drawn and crossed. Should the FED attempt to rescue the economy by pausing rates or even pivoting, we'll likely see hyper-inflationary recession at the very least. On the other hand, should the FED continue to focus on tackling inflation, then recession it is.
Watch this chart closely along with our DXY chart. They are currently leading EVERYTHING (stocks, crypto, commodities, real estate, everything).
Stew
Bullish Cypher target $37Looking at this trading range, I've spotted a previous bearish cypher, a current bullish cypher. Price Action has retrace back to the Previous (B) leg of the Bearish Cypher. The Previous resistances, is currently acting as support for the D leg of the present bullish cypher.
We can confirm this w/ the bottom of the Stoch RSI.
I'm looking to buy put options on $faz ( the financial 3x bear ETF ) near the open bell Monday Morning.. I can also buy shares in the premarket of $xlf or call options. It will depend on the price action of both at that time.
SI Silvergate Capital going to $0???If you haven`t sold crypto`s favorite bank, SI Silvergate, here:
Then you should know that Silvergate Capital Corp, the parent company of Silvergate Bank, announced its closure and liquidation of assets on Wednesday.
Shortly after, New York state banking regulators closed down Signature Bank to prevent the fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
Lawyers representing plaintiffs in a class action lawsuit by FTX customers against 18 defendants, including Signature and Silvergate, claim that these events will severely limit the amount of money they can access if they can prove the banks are responsible.
Kerry Miller of Fishman Haygood, whose firm filed the lawsuit in Miami federal court, stated that FTX customers may have to rely on insurance policies covering the banks' top executives and board members since these events impose another hurdle.
Haven`t seen any bidders for it, or other banks supporting SI SIlvergate.
Most likely to file for bankruptcy and go to $0.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$398 min Target from C wavePrevious resistances could then act as support to launch to $408.00. From Wave 1- Leg A, is a bullish Cypher pattern. B Leg was the rejection as it retrace back up to Wave 2. Double bottom occurred on the intraday Friday. A leg acted as resistances before the double bottom occurred. This information combined w/ my Technical Analysis on Tech, and Financial Sector I see the SP500 rally early next week and cause a short squeeze.
Looking to long Financials early next week, any negative news in the market is a buy opportunity. I also like Tech, and will likely short the inverse 3x bear etf