Bapig
ATUS pushing the extremesNYSE:ATUS pushing the extremes of the 99.9% probability cone. Bids filled at $17.55.
Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31.
In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return.
The area of probability range is based on an inverse normal cumulative distribution function. The inverse cumulative distribution gives the range of price for given input probability. People can adjust the range by adjusting the input probability in the settings. The probability of the entered standard deviation will be shown in the middle when the "show probability" setting is on.
BTC Daily: Standard Deviations and Better MAFFS! Rule this gameDaily Bitcoin TF shows that once again ... standard deviations and rule this game.
* The start of today's candle got an indication from Reverse WaveTrend to sell, and down it went ... and then ...
* The downward wick of today's candle (so far) hit not just the Daily 1SD to the downside ... it also hit at that same place, the Markzillator Ephemeral Power Mean, AND the Rev Fisher Stop Line!
* Once again ... that was a perfect entry with the BApig Indicators, with a relatively quick ascent to a profitable point, with 3 Better MAFFS! indicators right there, and that's without the additional confirmations below.
* Impossible RSI flattening out in its descent, as MOM continues to head to the upside, even if slowing down a little.
* Of course if price heads south again, I could close it in profit or wait for tomorrow (as it is a daily tf trade) to see how it plays out.
* So far, it looks good to the upside on the lower TFs. impossible RSI and MOM, for instance, on the 2h, are looking ripe for a good rise today.
* Of course keep in mind it's the first Friday of the month. So there should be plenty of good volatility today, as usual.
h/t to @balipour and his crew for making these BApig Indicators! They make trading volatility accessible, learnable, relatively easy. See his Published Scripts page right here on TradingView and look at all the amazing tools he gives out, entirely for free! This man and the team he leads, surely deserves some kind of prize for being so generous with a community of traders! They are truly the most underappreciated group of indicator makers here on TradingView. What they have done for traders is frankly, revolutionary. This changes the game. Reddit, WallStreetBets (the new bane of careless hedge fund managers) ain't seen nothin', yet. You just wait 'till every in-the-know or smart Retail Trader starts trading with these tools. It'll make what happened with GameStop, AMC et al, look like child's play.
Wall Street thinks you're the dumb money. Yes, I'm talking to you. You're on TV. They assume you're an idiot. Don't be offended. Emotions have no place in trading. Use their assumptions against them. These tools are designed to give you an edge, and the proof is in the pudding. They give you both sides of the equation, so you never have to wonder "up or down?" like all the clueless fools who use voodoo TA and other gimmicks that all use poor maths or no maths at all. The probabilities and statistics that the BApig Indicators give you, tell you precisely the likelihood. Don't just take my word for it! See it for yourself.
As the bitcoin mantra goes; Don't trust. Verify.
The best part about BApig indicator trading tools: You do not need to be great at maths! They did all that work for you! Their latest Probability Cone with Kelly Ratio indicator (one of their premium indicators with an extremely high rate of accuracy) even gives you the position size, optimal leverage and take profit and stop loss numbers right on a panel on the chart! This saves you valuable time and effort, especially if you like to scalp low TFs, and time is of the essence!
All you have to do, is learn to use the indicators, and there are free-to-join online communities on discord set up to help you do that.
Of course, this is all my opinion. Do your own research. You are responsible for your own trades and actions. Don't invest anything you can't afford to lose. yada yada yadadadadada.
Everything I Thought I Knew About Trading and TA Was WRONG.For some years, I had been learning trading and Technical Analysis (TA).
As I progressed, I stumbled into Volatility trading and the Better Maths behind the indicators made by Balipour and Pig.
Comparing Traditional TA indicators and maths to the next level trading indicators built on better mathematics, is like comparing a car to a rocketship. Sure, both will get you around, but one is far more likely to help you reach new heights in your experience, while the other is more likely to keep you moving around more or less on the ground, until the vehicle breaks down.
Lesson: Things to know about trading volatility:
The standard deviation of returns is Volatility.
Returns are Mean reverting. Price isn't.
Price Action is impacted by Geometric Brownian Motion. This means there is some amount of Randomness in every candle.
Time decay and Entropy affect Returns.
These things and more are all measurable and you can learn how to use the indicators that measure them, complete with official documentation, tutorial documents, live streams, youtube videos, active discord communities, and more.
It took me about a week to get the hang of trading strictly using these indicators and the others from Ba+Pig. I have not traded with traditional TA indicators since the end of August, 2020. And I haven't looked back. The performance comparison is night and day.
The lesson here is that TA does not work consistently enough in this digital age of fast computers running better mathematics algorithms and high frequency trades.
Do yourself a favor. Stop drawing subjective lines, shapes, patterns and other ridiculous art for any charting you use to trade. Learn volatility trading. Learn better maths. Trading is not voodoo art and magic. There is no secret sauce. The mathematics give you the vast majority of the info you need to succeed in your trades. You just have to know how to use that info.
Even the world's best quant firms do not have better maths than these indicators. They may have more and better data to analyze, but the maths are the maths. The formulas are the same high quality level of mathematics that can actually be used to calculate HVP, Probability Cones, Expected Moves, Time Decay and Entropy, as well as Hurst Exponent , DWT, MOM, Impossible RSI , Reverse RSI Div , Correlation Coefficient and more!
If you want to get their cutting edge indicators for yourself, you can do so by checking all the free indicators that @balipour has posted on his TradingView account's Published Scripts page. And to try or get the Premium BApig Indicators, if you're unable to find it on your own, then you may ask in the discord community or DM me and I'll be happy to let you know where to find them.
This is not financial advice. This is just my opinion. Do your own research. You'll be glad you did. :)
When Vlad (Robinhood CEO) Gave Away "The Secret" of TradingThe youtuber Andrei Jikh has long promoted Robinhood, until the whole GME thing happened when apparently he paused his promotions of it, seeking clarity about what happened.
Lo and behold, Vlad, the CEO of Robinhood, called him up.
As I may not include a link to a youtube video here, I'll just tell you to go watch the video by Andrei Jikh speaking with Vlad, the Robinhood CEO. The bit I'm referencing below starts at around 5 minutes and 20 seconds into the video.
Vlad explained how the GME weekly was a 5 stdev event , which he says is a 1 in 3.5 Million chance of happening (according to some research he mentions from Goldman Sachs).
He doesn't say it's was some major Support & Resistance area. Doesn't mention MAs, EMAs, RSI , Stochs, Fibs, Order Boxes, Triangles, M patterns, W patterns, cup and handles, or any other pattern. He mentions none of that voodoo TA nonsense that the scammers sell you, including exchanges that give you "free TA tutorials / courses / academies" and other kinds of TA scams, designed to make you feel smart while actually just getting you REKT!
He speaks of the Standard Deviations. That's what triggered them to shut off the BUY button. The mathematics. Not the "TA". The MAFFS! Not the witchcraft. Not the art. Not the ridiculous chatterbox theories from the peanut gallery. It's all about the numbers.
And anyone who was trading or charting GME using the BApig indicators at the time (the ones made by @balipour and his brilliant crew) saw exactly what was happening and would have had a higher probability of placing winning trades, thanks to the BApig indicators that calculate standard deviation of returns (aka: volatility ).
You can see it here clearly on this chart showing the BApig Expected Moves indicator, where it hit the 5 stdev on the Weekly TimeFrame , even pierced through it, only to close within it, before heading further down on the next weekly candle.
So to anyone here who is still using TA and has not committed fully to trading with Better MAFFS! Let this be a lesson! If you want to win trades: Trade volatility with the indicators from BApig! The Stats & Probability package or the All Together / All-in-One packages are absolutely the best trading tools available on TradingView.
This is of course entirely my own opinion and it's not financial advice or advice on how to prepare your salads or steaks. Do you own research. Really. You'll be glad you did.
Bulls win trades. Bears win trades. Pigs get slaughtered. Unless they use Better MAFFS! In which case, those pigs seem to win most trades, with virtually no (or at least far less) uncertainty.
BTC Probabilities by end of 2021 using Probability Cones!!!!!!!!Probability Cone is based on the Expected Move. While Expected Move only shows the historical value band on every bar, probability panel extend the period in the future and plot a cone or curve shape of the probable range. It plots the range from bar 1 all the way to bar 31.
In this model, we assume asset price follows a log-normal distribution and the log return follows a normal distribution.
Note: Normal distribution is just an assumption; it's not the real distribution of return.
You can see how the first set of probability cones are set at the beginning of the Bull run starting on Sept 1st 2015 and ending on Jan 1st 2018. The set of 3 Probability Cones are set to the 3 different Standard Deviation Percentages. 1st SD is at 68.3%, 2nd SD is at 95.4%, and the 3rd is at 99.7%. Notice how the Bull run was halted at the bottom of the 2nd SD. When everyone was wondering where the top was and guessing using worthless traditional TA where it would be, its obvious where it was at if you were using Probability Statistics. My Point, Probability Statistics will revolutionize the way Retail Traders interact with the markets, not just drawing shapes and worthless lines on your charts.
Now flash forward to the present, the next set of Probability cones and the impending Bull Run taking place since the supposed Black Swan event of COVID. Actually it wasn't a black swan event at all and Probability Statistics and Better Math indicators realized the pullback in the markets weeks before it happened.
For an approximately normal data set, the values within one standard deviation of the mean account for about 68% of the set; while within two standard deviations account for about 95%; and within three standard deviations account for about 99.7%. Shown percentages are rounded theoretical probabilities intended only to approximate the empirical data derived from a normal population. You can see the prices of the Probabilities in the black boxes 22 Monthly candles out. 1st SD price is at $24,772 which the price is already above the 1st SD Cone projection, 2nd SD price at $95,994, and the 3rd SD at $351,197. What does this all MEAN you ask, no pun intended, it means that there are no magic lines or drawing shapes on your charts that are gonna give you the correct outcome of an event. The Markets 95% of the time are in a Random Walk, specifically the Random walk of Brownian Motion. The only thing that matters are the Standard Deviations away from the mean and the Standard Deviation of Returns is Volatility. So no more hocus pocus trying to predict where price will go. Theres only probabilities. BaPig indicators are on the cutting edge of redefining the markets...
BaPig indicators are on the cutting edge of redefining the markets...
