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POSSIBLE 4:1 RISK/REWARD ON AUDCADI had this currency pair on my watch list for this week after analysing the WEEKLY chart, and whilst looking through the DAILY time frame I spotted a potential long trade. I spotted a pattern I have just started to test out, you have 3 bars involved. In this instance we see a good pullback to previous structure, the first bar looks like a potential low test bar, then the bar after it is a high test bar but the interesting thing about it, the second bar fills the rest of the low test bar body. The third bar then has to either be a low test buyer bar, or an engulfing buyer bar. I will make sure at 10pm tonight to check that this bar finishes as an engulfing buyer bar. Couple of details to add, I currently have to trades open on this currency pair only risking 1% each trade. I have my 1:1 target where the first blue line is, my second target is the 2nd blue line beyond the first which price has previously been before, making the trade a potential 4:1. Side Note- These are all my opinions, please do not take my advice as the be all and end all, I am an amateur FOREX trader trying to learn about the markets.
Long
by JKibbler
IS USDAUD GOING LONG?We have seen a great move from this currency pair since September 2014, I have only been trading for the past 8 months now but I always start my analysis of a currency pair with the MONTHLY time frame. I noticed a very clear trend line and very clear higher highs and higher lows. Currently USDAUD has come back to the trend line, so I moved down the time frames to look for an entry, interestingly enough I found some PRICE ACTION around the trend line on the WEEKLY. The first is what I call the 'TRAIN TRACK' where two bars next to each other look almost identical in body size however the chart tends to go with what the second bar is telling it, hence the green bar indicating going long. Also there is a low test bar (IF IT CLOSES LIKE THIS) which I have been using successfully for 8 months, which is another good indicator to go long. Obviously we all know that the market doesn't give a monkeys about what we think and does what it likes but I think this would be an interesting one to watch!
Long
by JKibbler
#AUD/USD #bullish precursorAUD/USD has formed new structure recently showing signs of a trend reversal. Whether this continues to hold longer or not is for price action to reveal. As for now, a potential bullish continuation is brewing after what seems like a shall retracement. The close of price action by end of day as a low test bar above ~0.7250, where price has found support, will further confirm potential bullish intentions in price. Other than that the reasons for going long are: rejection of 50 ema; a rising 50 ema; rejection and close above 0.382 Fibonacci level; and convergence on Stochastic and RSI indicators. entry - above high of low test bar stop loss - below low of low test bar target - at or above previous high/resistance area around 0.7400
Long
by amanpaulbhogal
Short NGASAfter breaking below the 2.55 price area recent price action is seen to pull back into and retest it showing signs of potential downward continuation. This price level is in very close proximity to the 20 ema and the 0.382 Fibonacci level. A bearish reversal bar thrusting off of this bundled rejection region is an offering of a short entry to resume to the downward trend. entry - below low of today's bearish bar stop loss - above high of today's bearish bar target - at or ideally below previous low for better reward:risk profile
FX:NGASShort
by amanpaulbhogal
Divergence, again, on USD/CADAlthough in a healthy uptrend, USDCAD has run into resistance at ~1.3070 which happens to be a price level on the weekly chart that has previously been tested (as support in April 2004 and resistance in March 2009). Price closed below this level on Friday as a high test bar. Coupled with bearish divergence on the Stochastic and RSI indicator a price action behaviour is suggestive of bearish sentiment. Judging by the optimistic Fed outlook to raise interest rates, and positive expectation from the US economy from improving economic data, a stronger US Dollar is likely to continue. The following short setup banks on a technical perspective to take advantage of a sell signal; potentially a temporary run. entry - below low of high test bar stop loss - above high of high test bar target - previous level at ~1.2771
Short
by amanpaulbhogal
What's next for USD/JPY?USD/JPY broke above the December 2014 high and closed well below. Recent price action appears to be trending after a consolidation breakout , near 120.40-120.65 , to the upside and break above , also, above the falling trend line drawn over previous highs . A possible retest of this trend line which lies in confluence with the 20 ema , a previous horizontal (now support) level (at ~120) and the 50% retracement with the sight of low test bar/hammer/reveral pin bar would be a strong signal to take the trade long . Succinctly, waiting for bullish signs at the next higher low .
Long
by amanpaulbhogal
Short AUD/JPYThe AUD/JPY daily chart displays consecutive lower highs and lower lows with a potential short setup to continue the visible falling trend (supported also by downward trendline). The current corrective phase seems to be running out of steam in initiation of a potential impulsive phase, with the production of a bearish reversal price bar: - ricocheting off a previous level at ~95.20; - rejecting the 50% retracement level which is contiguous to 95.20; - bouncing off and (most likely) closing below the 50 ema; and - bumping into the falling trend line encountering resistance. Convergence is observable on RSI and hidden divergence on Stochastic. Both Stochastic and RSI are in overbought territory and are ostensibly preparing for a reversal. Entry - below the low of today's bearish reversal bar close Stop loss - above the high of today's bearish reversal bar close Target - first profit taking zone at previous low/swing low (91.75), and possibly lower at 91.00 if swing low violated * Ignore the placement of the arrow indicating RSI convergence.
Short
by amanpaulbhogal
9
USDJPY bearish 3 Bar ReversalIf you don't already know these basic candle patterns it's worth learning them. I have been thinking about doing a short training series on these and potentially doing some simple indicators to identify theses setups. If you'd be interested in learning about these setups hit the "Like" button. In order for this pattern to be a valid sell the three green candles must be contained within the range of the large Red candle. One more day to go.
Short
by Jason_Stapleton
65