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BBY

OPENING: BBY MARCH 10TH 38/42/47.5/51.5 IRON CONDORBBY announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so look to put on something today before market close to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction. Implied volatility rank is currently at 92 over the preceding six months, with implied volatility just shy of the 50% mark. I compared and contrasted going with my standard 20-delta iron condor, as well as a full on iron fly. Here, I'm selling the 30-delta shorts as a sort of compromise ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 57% Max Profit: $163/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $239/contract Break Evens: 40.39/49.11 Delta: -2.39 Theta: 9.03
NYSE:BBY
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: TGT, BBY, LOW, XRT AND THE VIXWith earnings in TGT, BBY, and LOW, it's no surprise that implied volatility in the retail ETF, XRT, has ramped up here a bit (sixth month implied volatility rank is 73/implied volatility is 22). That being said, I'm really only looking at BBY for a play given its implied volatility rank/implied volatility (93/48). HTZ also announces earnings and has the right metrics for a play, but has 2.5 wide strikes where I'd want to set up, so I won't be playing that. TGT and LOW's background implied volatility probably will not be sufficient for me to play (they're in the high 20's/low 30's; I prefer something around or above 50). Relatedly, however, XRT is starting to "frisk up", so I may consider putting on a fly there if I can do a setup that brings in 1/4th of the width of the long options. Additionally, VIX spot hasn't moved significantly, but back month VIX futures options have ticked up a bit such that you can get in on a term structure trade in VIX in the May expiry at the 16 strike for a decent credit (e.g., May 16/19 short call vert). And that's what I'm looking at for the week ... .
AMEX:XRT
by NaughtyPines
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS AND A PERSISTENTLY LOW VIXIf you're going to play anything next week premium selling wise, it's going to be in earnings, because that's all that's really out there volatility-wise. The VIX remains persistently low here, and running a screen for exchange-traded funds with >70% implied volatility rank, and >35% implied volatility yields absolutely nothing. Here's what showed up on my radar -- some sketchy ADR action (WUBA), a little bit of frisky biopharm (BCRX), and some beaten-down brick-and-mortar retail (M, SHLD, JCP): WUBA (99/56) (Online Retail): It's scheduled to announce earnings on Thursday (2/23) (Short strangle/iron condor). BCRX (98/287) (Biopharm): Earnings Monday (2/27) Before Market Open. (Short puts, short straddle). This is biopharm, which -- in itself -- should serve as a warning. You may want to do a bit more due diligence on this one than you would ordinarily, since they can explode, but also implode. DKS (98/48) (Sporting Goods/Retail): Earnings are three weeks out, but I thought I'd put it out there since it's nearly ripe for play implied volatility rank/implied volatility wise. (Short strangle, iron condor). M (96/49) (Department Store Retail): Earnings Tuesday (2/21) Before Market Open. Because we have a long holiday weekend here, with the markets being closed on Monday, I've probably missed an opp to play this one unless there is high vol afterglow post earnings. (Short strangle, iron condor). SHLD (93/127) (Department Store Retail): I don't see that this has earnings up, but it's in the process of imploding. (Short puts, short straddle). BBY (93/47) (Retail): Earnings 3/1 Before Market Open. We're still a ways out from earnings, so like DKS, nearly ripe ... . (Short strangle, iron condor). HTZ (92/73) (Car Rental): Earnings 2/27 (Monday) After Market Close. Another one that's ripe right now. (Short strangle, iron condor). JCP (88/65) (Department Store/Retail): Earnings Friday (2/24) Before Market Open. Another beaten down brick and mortar retail issue. (Short puts, short straddle). OCN (85/70) (Financial): Earnings on 2/22 (Wednesday) After Market Close. (Short puts,short straddle).
W
by NaughtyPines
2
BBY after earning... will it hold up?BBY still has to hit L3 marker for the HVF to complete. So there is a strong probability for a short setup. In contrast, there might be a possible Long 123 setup forming down the road as well. For a long position, entry might be @ prior resistances level round 35.44, otherwise if price action compromises support then further downside is expected. Note that 32 price level could be another entry point for long entry into a 123 for the 2nd wave. The narrative for BBY is bullish especially now since they finally seen an increase in online sales vol. But without any further research proceed with caution for the bullish narrative to change. Lastly technical analysis and outlook is subject to change, as indicators, patterns continue to develop and become more significant. Hence my analysis may be too early.
NYSE:BBYShort
by TraderMD
TRADE IDEA: BBY JUNE 3RD 29.5/35 SHORT STRANGLEBBY announces earnings on 5/24 (Tuesday) before market open, so look to put on a play shortly before Monday's NY close to take advantage of the implied volatility crush that commonly occurs post-earnings announcement. Here's the preliminary setup, since price may move during the NY session, requiring slight adjustment of the strikes: BBY June 3rd 29.5/35 short strangle Probability of Profit: 71% Max Profit: $104/contract Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: Undefined/~$371/contract Note: Look to take this off at 50% max profit.
NYSE:BBY
by NaughtyPines
BBY into Black MondaySo this is an Idea Dr. J threw out and said has not lost yet. I figured with the good earnings and the big sell off and considering track record would give a shot. I like the gap up and thus playing the Dec 35 calls into the November shopping run. With market a bit crazy there is risk here and key is to know risk up front at 2.37 per contract that is total risk but would not allow that to expire worthless unless we get huge market event to gap it over the current pricing. I have alarms set and will monitor trade Use longer term options...not volatility is a bit high
NYSE:BBYLong
by Vince
2