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BCOUSD

Oil Prices Slip as Gaza Talks and China Worries WeighOil prices edged lower at the start of the week, as traders weighed the potential impact of ongoing Middle East tensions and softening demand from China. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped towards $79 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $76. The recent decline follows a turbulent week for oil markets, marked by significant volatility. Prices had shed nearly 2% on Friday as investors grappled with concerns over China's economic recovery and the potential implications for global oil demand. The world's second-largest economy has shown signs of weakness, with data indicating a slowdown in industrial activity and consumer spending. This has raised doubts about China's ability to drive oil consumption growth. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues to cast a shadow over the energy market. While diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire have intensified, the situation remains volatile, and the potential for disruptions to oil supplies in the region cannot be ruled out. The geopolitical risk premium, which has supported oil prices in recent months, could diminish if a ceasefire is achieved. Analysts caution that the oil market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, as traders navigate a complex interplay of factors. On one hand, the potential for supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions could underpin prices. On the other hand, weakening global economic growth and efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources could exert downward pressure. Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from China and other major economies. Any escalation of the conflict or further signs of weakness in the Chinese economy could lead to renewed volatility in the oil market. Ultimately, the price of oil will depend on the balance between supply and demand. While the market has experienced periods of tightness in recent months, concerns about slowing demand growth may start to weigh on prices if they materialize.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by bryandowningqln
Oil Prices Climb on Inventory DrawdownOil prices edged higher on July 3rd, 2024, buoyed by signs of a significant decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, for September settlement rose 0.1% to $86.34 a barrel by 10:21 AM in London. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark for August delivery, inched up to $82.88 a barrel. This price increase comes amidst a wider risk-on sentiment in the global financial markets. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, have been reaching record highs, and this optimism appears to be spilling over into the oil market. Inventory Drawdown: A Cause for Optimism The primary driver behind the oil price increase is a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to sources familiar with the data, crude inventories fell by a significant 9.2 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the official figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this week, this would mark the largest single-week decline in stockpiles since January 2024. A decline in stockpiles indicates a tightening of supply, which can lead to higher prices. This is because crude oil is a fungible commodity, meaning a barrel of oil from one source is generally equivalent to a barrel from another. So, if stockpiles decline in the United States, it can impact global supply and drive prices up. Geopolitical Tensions and Summer Driving Season Lend Support Apart from the inventory drawdown, several other factors are contributing to the current oil price rally. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated around the world, particularly in the Middle East. The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with potential upcoming elections in France and the UK, are keeping investors on edge. Disruptions to oil supplies from these regions could significantly impact prices. Summer is typically a season of increased demand for gasoline due to vacation travel. While the API report also indicated a decline in gasoline stockpiles, concerns linger about weak U.S. gasoline demand, which could temper the current price uptick. Looking Ahead: Factors to Consider The oil market remains susceptible to several factors that could influence prices in the coming weeks and months. Here are some key elements to keep an eye on: • Confirmation of API Inventory Data: Official confirmation from the EIA regarding the inventory drawdown will be crucial. If the data is validated, it will solidify the current bullish sentiment in the market. • Global Economic Growth: The health of the global economy, particularly major oil-consuming countries like China, will significantly impact demand. A strong global economic recovery will likely lead to higher oil demand and consequently, higher prices. • The Upcoming Hurricane Season: The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, 2024. If major hurricanes disrupt oil production facilities or shipping routes in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to price spikes. • Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and price increases. Overall, the recent oil price increase is a result of a confluence of factors, including a potential decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a risk-on sentiment in the financial markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While some headwinds exist, such as concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand, the near-term outlook for oil prices appears cautiously optimistic. In conclusion, the oil market is currently in a state of flux. While several factors currently support higher prices, the path forward remains uncertain. Close monitoring of inventory data, global economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the Atlantic hurricane season will be crucial for understanding how oil prices will behave in the coming months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Jump on the Oil Swings with Confidence!I am excited to share some positive news with you regarding the recent developments in the oil industry. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories took a significant dip last week, falling by a whopping 6.37 million barrels. This decline has sparked a wave of optimism in the market, with WTI prices hovering around $83 a barrel and swinging between gains and losses. As we navigate through this risk-off mood and witness the US stockpile decline, now is the perfect time to consider going long on oil. The potential for further price increases is certainly within reach, and this could be a lucrative opportunity for all of us. So, let's not hesitate and take advantage of these oil swings with confidence. Trust your instincts, do your research, and make informed decisions. Together, we can ride the wave of success in the oil market.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Brent Crude Oil Demand Spike(WTICOUSD, too)Looking forward to entering Long on BCOUSD after NFP today. Am not too eager to enter, if it happens, its good. If it doesn't happen, I am fine too, since today is Friday, and I have to hold my positions over the weekends. I am used to holding trades over the weekends, however I prefer the weekdays. Therefore, when Mondays roll around, I thank God its Monday! Anyway, our discounted price zone is the 10EMA based on previous Black Friday Sale discounts offered. Price made a kink in the 10EMA discount by offering 20EMA discount yesterday or so, however, I do not believe it would continue giving 20EMA discounts which is bigger discounts, because, the Flag Pole is very big and long, while the flag is minute. As usual, I am very aggressive at cutting losses, and moving my stop loss towards Breakeven and into profits. Once the trade is in, I will immediately shift my stoploss upwards by one tenth of the SL size, because my intention is never to price hit my full R loss. I am wrong many a times, by being too aggressive at cutting losses, moving my stop loss forward, etc and price continues to go in my favour after I am out of the trade, however, the results does show that I am profitable, and so, I will continue with my new ways. I began doing such aggressive SL shifting earlier this year at around February, and it has been profits for me ever since, week on week. 2002SGT 05042024
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
WTICO Outperforms BCO on US Oil Production RiseWTICO (West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil) has recently been outperforming BCO (Brent Crude Oil). This trend coincides with an increase in US-produced oil replacing sanctioned Indian refined oil. Potential Opportunity in WTICO The shift in market dynamics could present an opportunity for traders considering long positions in WTICO. However, as always, it's important to conduct your own research and consider factors like: • Market Volatility: Oil prices can fluctuate significantly due to various factors. • Global Oil Production: Changes in global oil production can impact WTICO's price. • Your Investment Strategy: This trade should align with your overall risk tolerance and investment goals. Stay Informed, Make Informed Decisions We recommend staying updated on market developments before making any investment decisions. We're Here to Help Please don't hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or would like to discuss this further within the comments.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Brent to continue in the upward move?Brent - 24 expiry The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in mild net gains yesterday. Intraday, and we are between bespoke support and resistance 73.72-81.78. Immediate signals are hard to interpret. Previous resistance, now becomes support at 77.40. There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end. We look to Buy at 77.40 (stop at 76.40) Our profit targets will be 79.90 and 81.78 Resistance: 79.90 / 81.78 / 84.57 Support: 77.40 / 76.61 / 73.72 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by OANDA
Oil Indicates Bearish Trend as EMA 50 Crosses Fibonacci .618Recent technical analysis has revealed a bearish signal as the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 50 has crossed the Fibonacci .618 level, indicating a potential downward trend in oil prices. Technical indicators serve as valuable tools to assess market movements and make informed investment decisions. The EMA 50, in particular, is widely recognized for its ability to provide insights into medium-term trends. When it intersects with significant Fibonacci levels, such as .618, it often signals a shift in market sentiment. Given the current scenario, it is crucial to exercise prudence and consider the implications of this signal. While it does not guarantee a definitive outcome, it is a noteworthy indication that suggests a potential downward pressure on oil prices. Consequently, we should reevaluate our investment strategies and exercise caution before making further commitments in the oil market. Given this information, I encourage you to hold on to your existing oil positions and refrain from further investing until we witness more precise market signals. It is essential to closely monitor the market and observe the subsequent price action to understand the potential trend direction better. As always, it is essential to remember that market conditions can change rapidly, and it is crucial to remain vigilant and adaptable. I recommend staying updated with the latest market news and conducting thorough research before making investment decisions. Please comment with me if you have any questions or require further clarification. I am here to assist you and provide additional insights to help you navigate these uncertain times.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by bryandowningqln
Capitalize on the Crude Surge! Exciting Opportunities Await!After months of languishing, crude oil has skyrocketed above $80 a barrel in London, signaling a remarkable recovery in fuel demand across China and other regions post-pandemic. But that's not all! Brace yourselves for an even more thrilling development: production cutbacks by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies are poised to deplete storage tanks worldwide rapidly. Now, I know what you're thinking - what does this mean for us? Well, my fellow traders, we are on the verge of an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on this crude surge! The stars have aligned, and it's time to consider long oil positions that could potentially yield substantial profits. As fuel demand continues to soar, propelled by China's impressive recovery and other countries following suit, the global oil market is set to witness unprecedented growth. With Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ allies tightening their grip on production, storage tanks are expected to drain rapidly, creating an environment ripe with potential for traders like us. So, why wait? Seize the moment and take advantage of this exciting turn of events! Consider long oil positions and position yourselves to ride the wave of this remarkable crude surge. You'll strategically position yourself to maximize your gains and potentially reap substantial profits by doing so. Remember, timing is everything in the trading world, and this is a prime opportunity that cannot be ignored. Don't let this thrilling chance slip through your fingers. Take action now and dive into the world of long oil positions to unlock the potential for extraordinary returns. If you have any questions, need further guidance, or want to discuss this thrilling opportunity, please comment away. I am here to support and assist you every step of the way.
NYSE:BCOLong
by bryandowningqln
Target reached! Crude Oil ReviewPrice bounced strongly above the 67.31 support level towards our take profit target - but how did we do it? Join Desmond in this analysis review where he covers the reason why this setup worked nicely. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Name of third party provider). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Name of third party provider. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Forex Capital Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 71% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM EU LTD (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FXCM Australia Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): ** Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com FXCM Markets LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits.
FX:USOILEducation
by FXCM
Will Brent find buyers at crucial support once again?Brent - 24h expiry A level of 72 continues to hold back the bears. Daily momentum has stalled and our bias is now neutral. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. We look to buy dips. The hourly chart technicals suggest further downside before the uptrend returns. We look to Buy at 72.13 (stop at 71.13) Our profit targets will be 74.63 and 75.13 Resistance: 73.30 / 74.00 / 75.00 Support: 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.62 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by OANDA
HOW TO TRADE BCO/WTI INTRADAY(VERY EASY) ?Jut keep it simplehis is one of the simplest trending strategies I use for day trading, and also one of the most effective. For this, it has been given the catchy name: Day Trade Trending Strategy. Using a one-minute chart the price will often make a larger move, have a very simple pullback, and then begin to move in the trending direction again. The strategy attempts to capitalize on that. Pullbacks aren’t always this simple, therefore, this strategy is best used in conjunction with the consolidation breakout method and the engulfing candle method (which this method is similar to). The strategy utilizes the trend to make a profit and also keeps me out of the market when the market isn’t trending. Before I begin, I cannot stress enough the importance of patience when employing the strategy. After you’ve exhibited patience, I am cannot stress enough the importance of restraint in not continuing to use the strategy once the window has closed. Like a fighter honing his striking skills, a strike is only effective if delivered at the exactly the right time. Too early, or too late, and the strike is not as effective. Wait for opportunities, then pounce…that’s how to trade the financial markets. Day Trade Trending Strategy – When and How The following day trading strategy provides roughly 4 to 8 trades per day, sometimes a bit more and sometimes a bit less. The main waves (trends) of the day are traded, usually with two trades per major price wave. Even if not taking trades using this method, it provides an overall context for the movements throughout the day, giving feedback and confirmation for many other strategies or signals which may arise. When day trading stocks or forex I use a 1-minute chart and a Level II (not required for forex). The Level II is only used if the volume in a stock is bit low and I need to watch for when liquidity is available. If the stock has lots of volume (plenty of shares at every price level) then there is no need for a Level II, just use the chart. Some days will turn out to be ranging days. If this case, no trades will be triggered, or very few, since intraday swing highs/lows will not be broken, thus no trend is present. Use patience and restraint. Only trade what the market actually provides. One of the most common problems new traders have is taking a trade too early and trying to get a better a price, assuming a trade will trigger in the near future. This is a big mistake. Only take a trade once the actual trade trigger (discussed a bit later) actually occurs. As alluded to prior, another mistake is waiting too long after a trade trigger has occurred. This too is detrimental to profits. Trades are taken at the exact moment of the trade trigger or not at all. Don’t start using this strategy until about 30 minutes into the trading day. I have other strategies I use during the first half hour, such as the Truncated Price Swing Strategy. We can now draw our downward trendline because we have broken lows and eventually we want to go short. We then wait for a pullback towards the trendline Please note, the trendline is only a visual and really has no significance to me. What matters, in this case, is that all the future swing highs in this move stay below the most recent swing high and new lows are created. As long as that happens, it is a downtrend. The opposite applies to an uptrend. Enter short when the pullback is potentially ending, signaled by the price dropping back below the low of a green bar or cluster of bars near the trendline (doesn’t need to be exactly at trendline). Day Trading Trending Strategy NOTES: I am only taking trades in the trending direction. I am waiting for a pullback and then only entering once the price starts moving in the trending direction again. This takes skills, as it is a somewhat subjective form of analysis and trading. The exact level of the trendline, if used, is not important. It is just a visual aid. Rather, understand that pullbacks in a downtrend can go almost all the way to the recent swing high in that downtrend, but should not exceed it (opposite for uptrend). As a pullback is occurring I am looking for any sort of shift which indicates a move back in the direction of the current primary trend. If there is any question as to the current trend, I do not trade this strategy. SPY is used for these trade examples, but the method can be applied to any stock or forex pair. Other stocks to consider for day trading each week are discussed on the Day Trading Stock Picks page. If the market is pretty close to my profit target and starts to pull away from the target, I exit. I am not going to risk giving up a bunch of profit for a couple cents. The target, which can be estimated before the trade occurs, needs to be realistically achievable based on the size of the recent price waves. If it the target will require the price have a much bigger move than it has been producing that day, the trade is skipped.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by DaveBrascoFX
BCO/WTI HEAVY SHORT Speculators cut oil long to pre-covid loWSWeekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet week where a continued improvement in risk appetite drove stocks higher while softening the dollar. Some commodity positions, with crude oil the major exceptions, showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling his summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to August 9. A relatively quiet summer holiday impacted week where stocks traded higher ahead of last week’s CPI and PPI print after better than expected economic data helped reduce US recession fears while the market was looking for inflation to roll over. The dollar traded a tad softer, bond yields firmed up while commodities showed signs of having reached a trough following weeks of heavy selling. Adviser To Iranian Negotiating Delegation: The Chances Of Reaching A Nuclear Agreement Are Very Great ajel.sa Commodities Hedge funds were net buyers for a second week with demand concentrated in metals and agriculture while the energy sector saw continued selling. Overall the net long across 24 major commodity futures rose for a second week after recently hitting a two-year low. Buying was concentrated in gold, platinum, corn and livestock with crude oil and wheat being to most notable contracts seeing net selling. Energy: Speculators responded to continued crude oil weakness by cutting bullish bets in WTI and Brent crude by a combined 14% to a pre-Covid low at 304.5k lots. The reductions were primarily driven by long liquidation in both contracts following a demand fear driven breakdown in prices. Gas oil and gasoline longs were also reduced. Metals: Buying of metals extended to a second week led by gold which saw a 90% jump in the net long to 58.2k lots. Overall, net short positions were maintained in silver, platinum and copper with the latter seing a small amount of fresh selling due to profit taking on recently established longs. Agriculture: Grains were mixed with corn and soybeans seeing continued buying ahead of Friday's WASDE report while the CBOT corn net short jumped 36% to 20k lotsand the Kansas net long was cut to a two-year low. The total grain long rose for second week having stabilised around 300k lots having collapse from a near record 800k lot on April 22. Soft commodities saw elevated short positions in sugar and cocoa being maintained with price gains in coffee and not least cotton supporting a small increase in their respective net longs. This before Friday's surge in cotton which left it up 13% on the week after the US Department of Agriculture slashed the US crop forecast by 19% to a 12-year low. Driven by a high level of abandonment of fields in the drought-stricken Southwest. Forex In the week to August 9 when the dollar traded close to unchanged against a basket of major currencies, speculators increased to three the number of weeks of continued dollar selling. The pace of selling even accelerated to the highest since January after the gross long against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index was slashed by 20% to $17.4 billion, a nine week low. Most notable selling of the greenback was seen against GBP and JPY followed by EUR and CHF. The Japanese yen, under pressure for months as yield differentials to the dollar widened saw its net short being cut by 22% to a 17-month low. MY WTI BCO STRATEY: HEAVY SHORT SELLING TARET:.... read in my member blog
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
5
CRUDE OIL STRONG SHORT BULLS LOSING MORESTRATEGY SHORT MORE ADDITIONAL SHORTS WTI bears waiting to pounce but bulls are strong West Texas Intermediate, WTI, has rallied towards a key resistance area as the following charts will illustrate. However, while a subsequent sell-off might be expected while on the front side of the bearish trendline resistance, there has been a firm layer of support put together near $74.00. The US oil benchmark is down 4% so far this week, extending a 5.6% drop from the previous period. Data on Thursday showed US economic growth missed forecasts in the first quarter, while a key measure of inflation rose to a one-year high. Investors now brace for future hikes, with the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank set to raise interest rates again in May. Meanwhile, the latest EIA report revealed US crude inventories decreased by 5.054 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations of a 1.486 million barrel draw. Morgan Stanley Cuts Oil Price Forecast After OPEC+ Decision While some analysts started talking about $100 after the surprise OPEC+ cuts, Morgan Stanley is cutting its price forecasts for this year and next, viewing the latest move as a probable admission from the biggest producers in OPEC+ that demand may not be doing too well in the coming months. “OPEC probably needs to do this to stand still,” Martijn Rats, chief commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, says, as carried by Forexlive. However, the decision “reveals something, it gives a signal of where we are in the oil market. And look, let’s be honest about this, when demand is roaring…then OPEC doesn’t need to cut,” Rats noted. So the U.S. bank cut its Brent Crude forecast for the second quarter of 2023 to HKEX:85 from HKEX:90 a barrel previously expected. The third-quarter forecast was also cut by HKEX:5 a barrel—to HKEX:90 from HKEX:95 , while the fourth-quarter price estimate was slashed to $87.50 from HKEX:95 per barrel. Morgan Stanley also slashed its forecast for Brent’s 2024 average to HKEX:85 from HKEX:95 a barrel. Citigroup doesn’t see $100 oil soon, either.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by DaveBrascoFX
USD/JPY hits fresh multi-year high, holds above 119.00 USD/JPY hits fresh multi-year high, holds above 119.00 amid resurgent USD demand FUNDAMENTAL: 1 USD/JPY caught fresh bids on Friday after the BoJ stuck to its accommodative policy stance. A goodish pickup in the USD demand provided an additional boost and remained supportive. A softer risk tone could benefit the safe-haven JPY and cap gains amid overbought conditions. The USD/JPY pair extended its steady intraday ascent through the mid-European session and climbed to a fresh multi-year peak, around the 119.10-119.15 region in the last hour. A combination of supporting factors assisted the USD/JPY pair to regain positive traction on the last day of the week and prolong its recent bullish trajectory witnessed over the past two weeks or so. The Bank of Japan stuck to its dovish stance and left its ultra-easy policy setting unchanged at the end of the March meeting. This, in turn, weighed on the Japanese yen and pushed the pair higher amid a goodish pickup in the US dollar demand. The greenback made a solid comeback on Friday and reversed the previous day's slide to the one-week low, bolstered by the start of the policy tightening cycle by the Fed. It is worth recalling that the US central bank hike its target fund rate by 25 bps on Wednesday and indicated that it could raise interest rates at all the six remaining meetings in 2022. This, along with elevated US Treasury bond yields, underpinned the greenback. The latest leg up now seems to have confirmed a near-term bullish breakout and might have already set the stage for a further near-term appreciating move for the USD/JPY pair. The divergence in the BoJ-Fed monetary policy outlook adds credence to the constructive outlook. That said, extremely overbought conditions on the daily chart could hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets, at least for the time being. Moreover, a weaker risk tone, which tends to benefit the safe-haven Japanese yen, might further contribute to capping the USD/JPY pair. The lack of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations tempered investors' appetite for riskier assets and led to a fresh leg down in the equity markets. Traders might also prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of a meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Nevertheless, the bias seems tilted firmly in favour of bullish traders, though the technical set-up makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before the next leg up. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair seems all set to settle near the highest level since February 2016 and record strong gains for the second successive week. 2 Holding 118.595 Puts USD/JPY in Position to Resume Uptrend The Dollar/Yen is edging higher on Friday after consolidating for nearly two sessions despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday signaling the equivalent of a quarter-point increase at each of its six remaining policy meetings this year, leaving investors racing to work out how much monetary tightening the economy can handle. The USD/JPY picked up some support overnight after Bank of Japan (BOJ) policymakers voted to maintain ultra-accommodative monetary settings. This move widened the policy gap with the Fed, which helped make the U.S. Dollar a more attractive asset. The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 119.118 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 114.651 will change the main trend to down. A change in trend to down at this time is highly unlikely, but the Forex pair is currently inside the window of time for a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2-3 day correction. The USD/JPY is currently straddling a pair of former tops at 118.601 and 118.658. They could become new support following the “old top, new bottom” rule. The nearest support level is a minor pivot at 116.765. Short-Term Outlook The direction of the USD/JPY on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 118.595. Bullish Scenario A sustained move over 118.595 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out 119.118 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. The daily chart indicates there is plenty of room to the upside with no resistance coming in until the January 29, 2016 main top at 121.678. Bearish Scenario A sustained move under 118.595 will signal the presence of sellers. A failure to hold 118.176 will break the chart pattern. This could trigger the start of a pullback with the pivot at 116.765 the next potential downside target. Side Notes Taking out 119.118 then closing below 118.595 will form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a minimum 2 to 3 day correction with 116.765 the first downside target. If Breaking 121 upward UDJPY can reach 125 and then 130-135! Strategy on low time frame: Go with the TREND!POSITION SIZE ONLYIF THE PRIOR POSITION STOP IS IN PROFIT(TRAILING TOPTURNS TO TAKE PROFIT LEVEL) BUYING PULL BACK RED BARS
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
1