sell GBPNZD if it bear breakoutsell GBPNZD if it bear breakout
GBPNZD
TYPE : SELL STOP
TF : H2
ENTRY PRICE : 1.9387
STOP LOSS : 1.9485 (99PIPS)
TAKE PROFIT : TP1: 1.9367 TP2: 1.9327 TP3: 1.9212 TP4: 1.9089
Bearbreak
we wait for BTC ( Bitcoin) bear break out and sellBTCUSD is approaching a major daily resistance cluster.
40,000 - 42,000 is a potential reversal zone.
To catch a swing move from that,
wait for a bearish breakout from the channel is formed on 4H.
We need at least a 4H candle close below its support to confirm a breakout.
Goals will be target 1: 36kx and target 2: 30kx.
Daily Ichimoku Support In-Play For BitcoinThe standard ichimoku cloud's kijun line (referred to as Base line in the indicator settings) is the mid-point of the high and low price over the last 26 periods.
I use Carpenoctom's modified ichimoku cloud inputs for cryptocurrencies since it is a 24/7 traded asset. The kijun shown here uses 60 periods instead of 26.
Carpenoctom has created a video series highlighting the ichimoku cloud settings in crypto, and I plan to create an update to this series over the weekend.
Bitcoin - Bearish BehaviorThe bearish nature of this rising wedge, a correction of the previous dump will end up in a bear break around 10/19.
Trading on both sides. I'll open a long position now with a tight stop, and I will close it around $ 8.800 and $ 9.100. Right after I'll double a short position.
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BTC Update! Bulls struggle on the bounce. $7.5k incoming?Quick update for what I am personally watching. I've said for months now that in my opinion our strongest support has been down at $7400-7750 area and we have yet to re-test this area. We certainly don't have to re-test it but would be a strong support area in my opinion. With that said, yesterday we broke my pattern bearish at about $9450 and fell to $8160 (about a 14% drop and probably the easiest short setup I've seen in a long time). We had some decent volatility with coinbase even seeing a bounce back towards $9k with other exchanges not bouncing quite as hard but many also dipping below $8k already for their low. So we had overnight for things to begin settling down with the price action but RSI remains very oversold on 4 hour time frame.
So on coinbase we have $8160 as our temporary low for now. Resistance above way up at the bottom of our original pattern (what was once support often becomes future resistance). Strong support I believe is at $7400-7750 area. If we do retest that area and it fails as support, there really is not many logical support areas nearby. If bulls area able to hold yesterdays lows; in order to shift trend, we need higher lows and higher highs to start taking shape. Bears extremely comfortable here as the longer it runs sideways or small bounces play out, the more RSI levels have a chance to cool off.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Bear break on Equilibrium!We got the break of pattern as expected today and unfortunately for bulls, it was not direction we wanted. I personally had stop buys set over night in case the opposite happened but as stated before, these are 50/50 chances so you have your exact entries and if the bears win then no harm done. Opportunities to play oversold bounces but thus far not interested personally. Depending on bears safest entry to short in my opinion was loss of the $11652 support from the higher low on 4 hour. However if you broke it down to 2 hour or hourly chart then there was a safe entry at $11750 to also short which gave a nice 4% return in a couple of minutes for bears or they are just sitting very comfortably in position now with stop losses at or near break even.
Bears crashed through the 3 most recent higher lows (now made dashed lines for clarity) and bounced off the final support from this pattern we have. Personally am expecting this final support to eventually cave and bears managing to get price down at or below $11k. So $11,170 is the low to watch from todays drop (essentially the double bottom from the $11,187 highlighted days ago). Bulls giving the typical bounce here but nothing too impressive and just cooling off lower time frames RSIs and allowing for a lower high to be established and bears to hop back in is my expectation. So continuing to sit comfortably in all cash for my trading position and will await next setup (ideally an oversold bounce play with a drop under $11k). If bears are unsuccessful then will patiently wait for next setup the charts give. Patience.
Just My 2 Sats
BTC Update! Bear flag break and strong dip buying!Leaving same 4 hour chart from yesterday here and if you actually zoom in on smaller time frame (5-15 minutes) it is much clearer. But yesterday we were watching for a potential bear flag as well as watching our 12 EMA serve as resistance.
The bears made an initial bear break but overall was fairly weak and a fairly quick recovery by the bulls to buy things back up. Bulls were again rejected by the 12 EMA tho and then the real bear break began where the bears crashed through some prior lows. Bulls did give an extremely strong buying of the dip and this bear break lasted all of 5-10 minutes going down to $3425 before rebounding. Bulls made a decent attempt here to break to a new high for the past 48 hours and go ahead of 12 EMA and tried to get ahead of 26 EMA as well. Currently bears have stepped back in but bulls fighting to maintain 12 EMA as support here which would be great news if they managed to pull that off. Zooming out towards daily and bulls have anything under $3766 is just another lower high. $3425 is currently our lower low on the daily as the bears seek to stair step the price action back down towards $3k.
While I am not excited to jump into a bullish position, I am happy to see the bulls not just rolling over and letting the bears take full control. Bulls are stepping in to buy these dips but if they continue to only set lower highs and then lower lows on our daily, it just becomes a matter of time before the bears make their big push. So stay cautious, if anyone played the dip buy early this morning, it gave a nice 4-4.5% return in minutes.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Bear flags & Bear breaks!Hopefully everyone enjoyed the weekend!
A few days ago I posted about being cautious as we sat up in the mid $3600's after the initial bear break. To me it was likely just a bear flag and we were waiting for our next leg down. We finally got that and bottomed down at $3482 yesterday. Bulls have bounced up towards $3550 here but thus far a rather unimpressive bounce and could easily be our next bear flag and then another leg down. 4 hour chart continues to be my go to at this time and our EMAs have served as nice guides for break down of price and now serving as rejection of price. Continuing to monitor lower highs and lower lows and really no interest in trying to trade these small and unimpressive bounces.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! Elevator Down!Been a few days and last chart was from Monday where bulls were sitting at low $4,000's and I discussed not being impressed by the bulls since they had failed to break to higher highs from when we had hit $4239. I also spoke about the bulls needing to avoid the elevator back down.
Well yesterday we saw that elevator down. Bulls fell about 12% yesterday in a short time frame and the bears once again proved they understand this market better than the bulls. When the bears strike, they are striking violently so anyone in position and without a stop loss is likely not too happy. I'm pushing towards 2 weeks now since my last trade in crypto so hence the lack of chart updates from me. These bulls just aren't showing me enough that they can sustain any type of momentum to this point.
From here the bulls stopped the bleeding at $3560 yesterday and bulls trying to prevent this from just being another bear flag on 4 hour before another leg down. I personally would not be trying to time this bottom down for the current drop as if its another bear flag with another leg down, bears could push it right back towards our lows in $3100's. I'll personally wait for 4 hour to return to a higher low and higher high format as current bullish trades are tough to hang onto outside of quick flips for small % moves as we are back to trading in a more bearish environment.
If you zoom out to daily chart, the support was down at $3567 as really our final support before our low of $3129. This bottom yesterday at $3560, fine with calling a double bottom for the support level. So continuing to remain patient and waiting for this trend to shift back towards bulls favor. I'll continue to try and post a couple charts each week but bottom line, market still not pretty and certainly not confirmed we have set our bottom.
Just My 2 Sats!
BTC Update! $6k finally breaks down and we were ready!Hello crypto traders!
Sorry I was just too busy yesterday to get a chart up with all that chaos going on. But lets step back, take a deep breath and look at what we have been discussing for days now.
A week ago I had discussed the trend changing and had finally gotten stopped out of my last trade position and locked in profits around $6440. I was then happily sitting in cash and waiting for the bulls to show something.
A couple of days ago I posted the more detailed version of all the red flags and signs of the trend change coming for the bears to be in full control. We cannot ignore clear bearish signs and if trading this market you have to protect your capital.
From where I got stopped out, BTC then showed a 20% drop, majority of which came yesterday. I continue to remain cash and have zero interest in trying to catch a falling knife as in my opinion, you will get cut far too many times trying to catch a falling bottom.
Yesterday we fell to $5280 extremely quickly. I recognize this had a lot to do with BCash fork and some big shots talking all sorts of junk with each other. Honestly, I keep an ear open to it but overall its pretty irrelevant to me. As a trader, I always have stop losses in position so even if I had still been in a position, I know my risk would have been minimal.
So from $5280, we saw the bounce up towards $5645 which gave us a easy lower high and fully expected. Today we saw another drop for another lower low and fell to $5188. Bulls are currently in a bounce off of that and anything under $5645 would just be another lower high. Bulls currently sitting around $5600 as I type this which is great for this bounce. IF the bulls beat $5645 then it would give them a 4 hour higher high. From there I'd want to see a higher low form (higher than $5188) and then another higher high to confirm the bulls are actually making the move to change the trend.
I am in no rush to re-enter this market as the volatility has been significant the last 2 days and we see pretty big pushes. You can absolutely make good size scalp trades here but pretty risky for my personal trading style. I'd rather be patient and have the bulls confirm a trend change for the time being and get their higher lows and higher highs going.
Due to the massive drop across crypto the last two days, it does have me interested in other coins just for more significant bounces in terms of a % gain. But BTC remains king and I will continue to primarily follow it on the charts as it dictates pretty much everything within the space for being bullish or bearish. I know some follow alt coins and their fundamentals but for me personally, the fundamentals in alt coins are useless. Most of these projects supposedly have great fundamentals and are progressing "ahead of schedule", etc etc yet alts are still down 70-95% on these great fundamentals. I will not care for alt fundamentals until they can become more like traditional markets and offer up balance sheets, profit/loss, revenue streams, etc. to give us information to pull from rather than just a few "developers" talking on some social media platform. Sorry for the long post/rant but please keep your capital safe. Always have stop losses in place as I know so many were crushed with yesterdays dump if they have no protection in place.
