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Bearflags

ETH-USD Continued Decline - Bear Flag Formed - Potential SHORTThis is a continuation of the short trades I have been making on ETH over the past month and a half. Especially my most recent call of a third descending triangle that formed and seems to have fully been confirmed. As you can see ETH broke down as soon as it crossed the lower bound of the descending triangle; I was able to make a couple trades off of this break down, unfortunately I missed my alerts on my phone and only got in on the tail end of this first decline. However, I think ETH has further down to go before we can see any sort of upwards momentum. Seeing the most recent MACD cross on the 1 day chart (Point "C"), and the resulting price decline that perfectly coincides with the two times this pattern formed (Points "A" and "B" on both the main chart and MACD). Because of this I am anticipating a further drop. On this most recent MACD cross I was able to enter and exit two positions on both days. On the first decline from the $225 range down to sub $200, I caught the tail end and entered a derivative position at 203.00 and exited at 197.50, the derivative was trading at somewhat of a large discount to ETH. This trade was in and out in under 10 minutes, I already missed most of the action, and while it was only a 2.71% gain, at 25 x leverage I netted a decent 67%+ gain, almost identical to my other trade mentioned earlier. On the Bear Flag charts I originally made back in late September. Yesterday I was able to get entries at $197.50/ETH (derivatives again) and closed along the way down all the way to $187/ETH. This was also a very quick trade, I only had a position open for less than 30 minutes. I netted 5.32% on this movement, my past trades were at 25 x leverage, this one was only at 15 x which means I only got 79.7% on the trade. Could've had more on a higher leverage. My success rate on these trades has definitely increased as the patterns seem to be continually confirming themselves. I've had a few early entries (before I was publishing my ideas) but the past 3 trades I've made and posted here were very successful, I believe this success is a result of being more patient and choosing better entry and exit points. Currently I am seeing another Bear Flag formation (on the 30minute) which I believe could turn into a greater continuation of the trend. I am eyeing very specific points for entry as illustrated by the Fib retracement which I extended to the lowest point on this timeline. Based on this I am looking for a downward cross on the MACD (30 minute - 1 day cross is still in play) to confirm the continuation. This would be a drop below $196 range. From there I am expecting a drop to $188 territory, and then we could see some really interesting action in the form of a solid rebound or a testing of lower points for ETH prices. I am playing tight stop loss and exit points, which you can see on the chart. This is due to my leverage on the derivative instruments. Play along at your own risk. Best of luck mates. Fair winds and following seas.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by Captainsmugglebutt
ETH-USD Bearish Descending Triangle Forming - Short PotentialI have been trading ETH short positions for the past two weeks with varying degrees of success. I had a few early entries which got washed due to some of the higher leverage I've been utilizing in my trades. Last night I capitalized on the pattern I saw forming and entered into another short postion at $223.50/ETH, when the price broke through the lower bounds of the bear flag I had charted off of the large dip from the $280 range down to $170 territory that took place between September 5th and September 12th. This was a quick in and out trade. I exited at $217.50/ETH when I saw support forming and the potential denial of the breakout I had anticipated. This resulted in a simple 2.6% gain, which at the 25x leverage I was utilizing yielded a nice 60%+ trade in a 4 hour window. Unfortunately the breakout did not extend as far as I had initially hoped. This has caused me to reevaluate my position and analysis, as such I don't have any open positions at this time but I am looking for another entry. This is a continuation of my past bear flag ideas. I believe the viability of that pattern has broken down for the time being as ETH already crossed the lower bounds and while it did decline it did not fall as much as I anticipated. Right now I am seeing another bearish pattern forming, a descending triangle from the September 11th-12th lows and the near $250 range from September 21st - 22nd. This pattern has formed two other times in the past two months, as you can see on the chart points and . After each of these patterns were fully confirmed the trend continued downward with strong profit potential on the short side. As I have learned over the past few weeks, being patient and entering the breakout has been much more profitable for me than trying to enter early to maximize profit. I am waiting for this most recently formed triangle , to breakout below the lower bound. I will be looking for an entry right before or shortly after a break of the $217.50/ETH resistance I have seen form multiple times. I believe that a breakout past that price point could result in ETH sliding near or below $200 again. I will not enter until I see this breakout being confirmed. Any thoughts, criticism or support, are all welcome. Let me know what you think about my analysis, do you agree or disagree?
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by Captainsmugglebutt
6
ETH-USD Short Update - Bear Flag Breakout Sub $100 Potential This is just a brief update to the Bear Flag Pattern I have been following in ETH-USD. This pattern started to present itself back in early September when ETH dropped out of the $280 range all the way to low $170s on September 11th - September 12th. The bearish flag pattern is forming nicely and has been confirmed by multiple data points over the past two weeks. Within the original large yellow bear flag pattern charted, another smaller blue bear flag pattern also appears to have formed. If ETH crosses the lower bound of the smaller blue bearish flag then I believe it will quickly cross the yellow lower bound and lead to a large downwards breakout. The larger yellow bear flag pattern's second leg down (the start of the blue flag) was a smaller dip than expected. I believe breaking the yellow flag at this point will result in the large downwards breakout originally expected (green line down). I am posting an update and new idea related to this position because I am keenly watching the MACD on both the 8 and 4 hour windows. The last time the MACD fully crossed down on the 8 hour we saw decent price movement downwards from the upper bound of the yellow flag which formed the new smaller blue flag within the original pattern. Yesterday I posted an update since it appeared it may cross the 8 hour soon. This is illustrated by point "A" on the MACD and the ETH chart. The cross was denied yesterday but it looks like we are close to another downwards cross, see point "B" on the chart. Since I am trading high leverage I am waiting to enter until the trend fully breaks out. I am looking for a clear cross on the 8 hour before I enter. I believe these current prices could be a fair entry point but ETH is especially volatile and I don't want to get wiped out by leverage before we see the downward movements I am predicting. I am setting up entry points from $220 down to $210, even $205 depending on momentum, if this is the breakout I am expecting we could see a price decline along the length of the green line of the larger bear flag. We could see sub $180 ETH prices in the next 2-3 days if it breaks now. I will not be entering this trade until it crosses. I think it could be profitable to enter now but that is up to you as an individual and your risk tolerance.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by Captainsmugglebutt
ETH-USD UPDATE: Bear Flag Pattern - Sub $100 Potential BreakoutI believe that Ethereum is sitting at a very key point where we could see sub $100 prices in the next two weeks or the beginning of a long-term reversal. My analysis is based off of two very simple patterns and builds upon my previous analysis of a 4 hr bear-flag formation. My last published idea covered a 4 hr descending triangle pattern continuation recognized by Audicted when ETH was in the $280+ range. The pattern predicted ETH dropping into sub $200 territory, all the way to $170. This marked the point of the first bear flag in my analysis, formed off of the September 11th, 2018 low. This flag extended out to September 23rd with an upward limit of $257. Ethereum stayed within the flag before breaking down to the September 24th low that was right above the $205/ETH mark. I expected a bigger price decline at that point and from there I saw another bearish flag formation starting. My originally published bearish flag pattern from the September 24th low extended to October 1st, it called for a $235-$245 short entry depending on risk tolerance and an exit before $200. Stop losses were a tight 5% of 256, assuming that if the price were to break the upper limit of the flag then the bearish pattern would have failed and new analysis would be required. From the call on September 28th to now, September 30th, ETH has traded within this second bearish flag trend. I am updating my idea based upon further development of the trend and subsequent data points, and I am also amending my suggested entry points. My updated analysis, chart below, reflects 3 new considerations. First and most basic, the second smaller bear flag formed off of the Sept. 24th low has been extended out to October 15th. This flag is represented by the two blue lines connecting to the initial drop highlighted by the purple line and other potential legs down following the flag pattern. Second, the yellow and green larger initial bear flag formed off of the Sept. 12th low was adjusted to meet the September 24th low as well as the September 21st high. Originally the September 21st high for the yellow flag was still within the range, but the September 24th low had broken through the original lower bound of the first yellow bear flag. This update reflects that development in the trend. From there the flag was extended outwards along the same range as the blue and purple flag. Third I have readjusted my entry and exit points. With how erratic this market has been, and some long term trends I am seeing potentially developing, I am now waiting to enter this trade only if it breaks below the lower blue line on the smaller flag. I will stop loss the trade along the height of the upper blue line. This represents a stop loss of 5% throughout the blue flag pattern. If ETH moves upwards past the upper blue line and towards the upper yellow line I will be reevaluating entry points. Any short entry point below the upper yellow line along the timeline should be profitable but I am proceeding cautiously due to the possibility of a long term trend that contrasts to this bearish pattern I am following. I have alerts set along the blue line and corresponding four hour windows. If the trend continues and ETH breaks the lower blue line then it has the potential to very quickly break the lower yellow line as well. I believe this would present with large downwards pressure with ETH going sub $170. Depending on entry point this could result in a 25%+ gain without leverage. My second longer-term analysis is prompting caution on this trade, which is why for now I will be trading only within the upper bounds of the blue flag and not the larger yellow, though if it breaks the larger yellow I will be looking to capitalize on a large downwards breakout. In the long-term I am seeing both a small rising wedge and also a large falling wedge. These are both very basic patterns, but I believe they are useful for this analysis. The (Purple) large falling wedge takes points from the peak of the ETH price bubble in mid-January and one of its lows in early-December right before a 60% upwards movement followed by more massive upward movements to the peak of the wedge. I believe the September 11th sub $170 low is an important data point on this falling wedge. I would argue that if it had fallen below that point there would have been very little support for ETH on the way down. I believe this longer-term trend is worth being cautious as there seems to be potential at this $230+ price range for ETH to break above the upper purple wedge line and confirm the pattern. The (yellow) smaller rising wedge has formed within the (purple) large falling wedge. The wedge begins with the $280+ ETH highs in early September and the September 11th low off of the 4hr descending triangle referenced. What I see as most interesting in this chart is how the rising wedge appears to converge upon the upper bound of the falling wedge. In my opinion I think we are about to see a major breakout in one direction or the other. If the rising wedge pattern confirms then ETH should drop away from the upper purple falling wedge line towards the lower purple wedge line. When this happens the falling wedge pattern would likely be denied and ETH could fall drastically to the sub $100 range. However, if ETH breaks out of the rising wedge then it could mean the falling wedge pattern would be confirmed shortly after and we would begin to see a long-term reversal. An overlay of the large falling and smaller rising wedge patterns on top of both the yellow and blue bear flag suggests that we could see this explosive negative price movement within the next week or two, or the beginning of a longer-term slow reversal. The three largest patterns all intersect on October 8th with a price of $240. I believe the smaller blue flag could be an early indicator. If at this point in time ETH is trading above the lower line of the yellow flag, above $240, I think we could begin to see a long term reversal taking place over a long period of time and this could be confirmed by ETH exceeding the upper bound of the yellow flag. Consequently, if it breaks out below the yellow flag lower bound and the lower bound of the rising wedge then we could easily see a steep decline and a continuation of the long-term trend to sub $100 levels. I believe the short side of this trade is a stronger position especially considering the trend following within bearish flag patterns. I believe there are also some fundamental aspects of Ethereum that lend towards a short position. Furthermore, the long-term falling wedge that would signal a long term reversal is based upon prices that formed during a speculative bubble, it could easily be a false indicator. A confirmation of this pattern would only mean there is potential for the reversal to begin, but I would not expect any large upwards price movements right away. To reiterate my position, I am entering on the short side of this trade along the lower lines of the yellow and blue bear flags, and stopping out at the upper blue flag. I believe the trade would be profitable with a stop loss as high as the upperbound of the larger bear flags yellow line but I am playing in this tighter range until October 8th due to my analysis of long-term movements.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDShort
by Captainsmugglebutt
Possible September's Bear FlagIt is a possibility that I see. It's a crazy volatile environment at the moment, we have to be VERY careful. I am leaning SHORT because the chart is showing me a possible Bear Flag on the Daily Time Frame that was been forming throughout the month of September and it's currently at the top. I see also a very likely possibility of a FAKE OUT coming to trap some LONGS around the 6.900 Area. Similar to the Fake Break Down we saw priorly this week. If we do break 6.900 I would consider a LONG depending of how we hold above it. The 2018 Trend Line worries me after the 6.900 level. On the down side, a break down for the flag seems more likely to me. What worries me in that scenario is that the amount of SHORTS that we saw trapped on the Fake Break Down might want to re-enter (if closed already) on a break of support around 6.300 and if the price keeps going down, there might be even more SHORTS opening on the way down. IF SHORTS go all the way up to way over All Time High levels, I think that will trigger a price reversal to trap those SHORTS and that will prevent the Bear Flag target to be reached.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by UrbnityTrades