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Bearflags

SPY to retest all time low - volatility curve setupI have a method of tracking actual volatility versus implied. I map the monthly "expected range" (the orange parabola) and then I expand it to match the actual movement of the price. (The purple parabola). What I notice is this is usually like a clock winding-up and the spring is now wound as far as it can go before it takes more force. What I mean by that is the price of SPY could follow the upper curve (this is where the market maker is neutral along the curve), so long as the curve had room to expand. Now the curve cannot expand, it is pressed against the prior all time low (a support band). Interestingly - the price also has stopped at the prior resistance (200day MA). So the price is primed and ready to slingshot across the price curve (the parabolas). "Expected Move" only prices in a historical move. But by expanding the parabola along the actual price move we can get an actual expected move. I find it very suspicious that the actual expected move (realized volatility) is yet again larger than implied volatility and conveniently lined up to test the prior all time low. Things to watch: Watch the orange circle which is the slow stochastic to fall below 80. Watch the ADI to accelerate upward as price moves downward. Watch price to take out prior higher-lows. If those conditions are met, there's nothing to stop the price from flipping from one side of the parabola to the other and finishing the August monthly on a swing low. Counter-thesis. The price has come so far that it reverts to expected move and finishes only a little lower than we are now along the upper orange parabolic curve. If this is true - price may test prior "higher low" but will fail to breach it. So I would wait for price to take out the last prior higher-low. Good luck.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DarthTrader1357
2
Still in bear flag for Ethereum Buyers had high hopes for breakout but we are still in a bear flag of a retracement from the drop. If it still bullish then breakout had to occur above 1775 price area. 1650 area are ranging for a lower price to drop down about 500 or 600$ if not then perhaps around 400. We aren’t that bullish yet .. it’s far too soon but language of the chart patterns has it meanings. WHEN TO BUY: 500 or 400 area is the strongest bottom support floors. 600 is a possibility. If you are in a buy from binance or coinbase or FTX.. I would sell it now and secure your profits. If your a day trader that has MT4&5 happy long term sell trading.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by JoyBoyVegae
1
ETHUSD STILL IN BEAR FLAGBreakout is not there yet but long way to go… Hate this but we are still in bear flag pattern. We are not bullish which was too soon. The buy will come up short to complete it and big drop coming the way. This is how it works from the drop like that.. it has to breakout above 2000 and higher.. for the bulls to take over it has to break the downtrend channel above 2160 area. If it does not break then has to complete the correction otherwise very high risk of spikes and force a down fall. I love the buy area around 500-600 it has a strongest floor support area. If you are in a buy already or still please be very careful
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
GOOG - looking precariousGOOG has been churning wildly within a rising channel since hitting a low in May. On a broader picture, this rising channel could be a bear flag within a bearish trend. With a very weak close last Friday, I would be cautious to buy this dip. With GOOG expecting to report earnings this Tuesday, we will know soon if this this rising channel will hold. Shall wait and see. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:GOOG
by Juliac
3
BTC Bear Flag Forming on 1 & 4 Hour Chart - Target $17k to $12KWas trying to do a video of this to publish but am having issues with the TV recorder not uploading properly. Hopefully the Mods are ok with me posting this link of my analysis: www.screencast.com Basically I'm seeing an obvious Bear Flag pattern which has been building the past few days and best seen on a 1 Hour / 4 Hour chart. I'm expecting a push higher to the $24k area, and then a rejection there which will be followed with more selling pressure down to the lower support range, which ultimately breaks and heads lower to the 300 week Moving Average now around $17k where we should see some kind of relief rally and Bull Trap price action higher. However, with all the terrible economic news and an increasingly likely full basis point rate hike later this month of 1%, we'll see the markets head markedly lower with Bitcoin heading down to test it's 400 week Moving Average for the 1st time in it's history. I'm also thinking that we'll break below that and test the psychologically important $10k level, and a likely Market Maker induced price drop below that to either cause or as part of a final capitulation move to the last remaining unfilled CME gap around $9750 to really flush out all of the retail buyers, and even triggering more liquidations before we finally put in a bottom around here. Let me know your thoughts, comments, and feedback below! Trade smart. Not Often. - Brett
Short
by BrettFogle
13