Bitcoin Bear Flag - Retest of the lowsThis is looking a lot like a bear flag to me. If I am right then we will be testing the 5.8k-6k area very soon. Plus CNBC is long so we got to go down right?
Bearflags4days
US 30 Wave 5 Possible PathwayAfter a shallow brief wave 4 now in progress expect higher again for a week or ten days.
Wave could carry Dow back to Jan high or perhaps a bit shy. Should get within 2 percent.
By early to mid-September we could see Dow reach a new alltime high, although it has lagged Sand P and Nasdaq is a real bubble.
Market was forming a smallish wave 4 when the Donald dropped his tweetbomb Thursday, yay for the Donster. Thanks buddy!
I shorted puts literally ten minutes before the tweet, ZOMG! Nonetheless, it is a shallow wave 4, as wave 2 was pretty hard and deeper grind. Final wave is a 5th of 5th, so expect more intense bullish greed. Chart may not be scaled as I notice 5th wave projection appears a little tall, as wave 3 is never the shortest. We will see. I drew the Gartley to peak on Standard R2 Pivot, maybe that's too high, who knows?!
As I write this post, futures already shaping up to turn bullish, Nas in the green again. In another post I discussed why Dow is lagging- it has to do with the index calculus.
Sand P index accounts for shares outstanding and market cap is periodically adjusted. Dow is calculated based on shares outstanding, so as corporate repurchases decrease shares in market, price and earnings are inflated but multiplier is diminshed as #shares is less. 19th century math, go figure!
So maybe US 30 will not get to 26616 again, as it has shrunk significantly (almost 6% after buybacks this year). Fibo for the Gartley is ~26268, we will see.
As the rally rolls into final phase RUT will reach into 1740+ zone maybe up to 1750+; we saw 1740 this week briefly before the Great Tweet.
This is a breakout pattern from the bear flag and it is parabolic in the other indexes; although Grand Dame Dow has lagged.
Rut should falter before the other indexes. Nas is a bubble and when it pops will deflate with shocking speed, flight to quality may prop up the Dow briefly.
The decline will likely be a full zigzag back to the neighborhood of strong support at 23530. Might not break that far down, depends on sentiment and fear.
A flat correction results in the final leg reaching comparable level to the primary wave, which shed 3300 points off Dow in Feb. It will be a roller coaster.
As always this is humorous speculative guesswork and in no way constitutes any kind of investment advice- gamble on stocks at your own risk, good luck!
Bear Flag in BTC/USDI think we are very close to the ending of the bearflag.
If you take a measured move (neckline) from the top of the flag, gives us the aproximate next stop between $4800 - $4500
We're also overbought in Stochastic RSI.
Just an idea, I'm not a pro.
Bear flag on 4 hour, could this be it?All this bear talk, all this bull talk...I am convinced that we are still bearish...how many days in a row are we going to bounce from these 2 regions?
Let's see.
Things like this...Okay, so there a couple of points I would like to make. First, everyone is contributing this spike to Bitmex shutting down its servers for maintenance, that is probable, but let me explain that Bitemx is a Futures exchange: a bitcoin derivative, something few people understand, which means that they do not actually trade bitcoin, instead they trade contracts and these contracts are related to bitcoins price and/or prices of relative cryptocurrencies which pays out in bitcoin in relation to the contract. In this situation, I can see two possibilities, first, that the pump and the shut down could have been a coincidence for whatever reason, or that whales set up longs on Bitmex (the only reason that would explain the timing) and then they took advantage of it and caused a slight short squeeze in the actual market which then cause the price of the Bitmex Contracts to skyrocket and messing up orders and such. Other than that, there was a short squeeze to be expected as shorts ere over saturated and therefore, shorts had weak hands which means that a small increase in price would cause a massive liquidation which is what occurred.
On to bitcoin...
So, bitcoin has made a move up, however, this has caused several problems for the future of bitcoin's prices, but I believe that the market has taken a pause in hopes of seeing what news comes out in relation to the ETF on the 23rd the news has been more critical as of late because I have notice that it is contributing significantly to market sentiment as the bullish sentiment is weak right now and the market needs hope, please note that this is a nonphysical ETF, so it does not really make a difference in effecting bitcoin's price directly but it will give a positive market sentiment for the actual important ETF and it's acceptance. (In my personal opinion I disagree with this logic and I believe the approval of the CBOE ETF would be more likely to occur without this ETF approval given how few ETF's the SEC approves.)
The Charts:
I believe there are three possibilities that are occurring.
1.) The most probably situation at this moment I believe is that this a bear flag in orange and I believe that it was confirmed by this last move, the peak volume occurs at the pole of the movement. The price objective of this bear flag is in the mid 4000 range and it has a roughly 70% chance of hitting this target. <=Most probable scenario.
2.) In Purple, there is a head and shoulder continuation pattern, however the white arrow that is upward sloping displays that volume is increasing into the head and the right shoulder, this is the inverse from a head and shoulder topping pattern where the highest point of volume it the left shoulder and then it decreases. I do not know whether or not that the volume invalids this continuation pattern, if it is still valid, the slope of the pattern is downward sloping indicating a weak bull trend and a price objective around 3500 and it has a close to 85% probability of hitting this target if it is valid. <=Possible But maybe invalid
3.)I do like to give a bullish chance too because I tend to lean more bullish, but right as I was writing this, it fell through, so I currently do not have one at the moment.
Last Analysis:
US 30 Rejected from Channel Trendline; in-day H&S, Shooting StarExpect gap down and significantly lower based on very bearish futures in PM. C wave beginning- soon. It might be very strong b/c it's a combo of primary ABC from Feb cycle and an intermediate ABC coming off the June swoon, both waves terminating at this juncture. Possible low target zone 23531 at Nov/Dec 2017 support. Good luck!
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
US 30 Trendline Test Rejection: Imminent ThrowoverCompare/contrast to 11/12 June top and throwover. Bearish engulfing candle. Shooting stars. On intraday we saw hanging man twice, and shooting star in SPX 8/.21.
Expect imminent throwover to entry on wave C of ABC ZigZag correction pattern within days, after reaching all-time high on SPX 8/21, US 30 25888 at Fibo 0.786 from Jan 26 high. Target 23531.
Possibly one more rally attempt to trendline on 8/23, then swoon; or just start lower back down into Bear Flag channel now.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
US 30 Bear Flag near breakdown of complex ZigZag ABC PatternFor months I have struggled to make Elliott wave theory fit this Bear Flag rising channel but although 5 wave impulses appear within the channel, it is not itself a motive impulse, but rather, it is a complex, 7 or 9 multi-wave zig-zag flat corrective pattern "A-B-C". It also contains WXY components which we recently observed press index under 25000, as well as countertrend ABCDE reactionary 5 part wave and many other minuette and subminuette patterns, omitted here for clarity.
I have read other wave theorists charts and the common approach seems to be trying to impose a 5 wave motive impulse pattern onto this chart, which simply doesn't fit.
It won't fit, because the market is not in a primary motive impulse; it is in a large-scale primary flat correction, which is countertrend to the previous bullish trend.
The entier channel we've been riding since April is the B wave. It's near termination now; this is a Bear Flag continuation pattern expected to move down again.
Once I recognized this, the reactionary corrective wave patterns fit perfectly with no fudging required. Notice the respect for Fibo and channel limits in these waves.
The two flashcrashes we had 2 + 15 August have created a new formation in chart: the rising wedge, another ominous pattern to go with a Bearish Gartley (see link) and bearish divergence in the indices and also within this index.
The flat, or Zig-Zag correction, is a lateral movement initiated by a powerful, panic-style A wave, which we saw in February, followed by a lengthy, complex, oscillating sine-wave B that carries index nearly to or equal to the prior high. In US 30 we see current price on 8/20 resting on the trendline, and also reaching back on a perfect parallel to a nearly .786 Fibo with 26 Feb reactionary high coming off the primary A wave. All this bodes ill, because:
Once the B wave completes at/near the price of origin, a steep, sharp C wave carries the index back down to the low price at bottom of the A wave. So after months of churning you end up right back where you started - twice. This is a vicious and malicious beast of a market. Do not fall into the Bull Trap on 8/21 they will surely try to bull it up once more. NB: Sand P has been within 10 pts of Jan high already. This is very near completion at current prices, maybe one more bullish attempt to breakout higher.
Until I saw this and the Gartley I was bullish last week, now I am onboard with The_Unwind, and others preparing for big break.
NB: If the bullish mood is strong enough, it is possible to create the expanded flat, in which B wave carries ABOVE the origin price, possibly to new all time high, before breaking down again off the double top.
Please read my prior posts to see the Gartley with perfect Fibo ratios, virtually identical to Bitcoin before that broke.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
US 30 Bearish Gartley Formation near complete: Bear Flag ChannelTraders, my bearish colleagues have persuaded me to take a second look at this channel flag. What I found is beary scary.
For months now US 30 have been in correction charting a rising channel. My alternate Elliott wave analysis suggests this is an ABC large-scale correction and the Bear Flag is a long, strong B wave, nearing completion in August. For the bullish hypothesis see link to my prior post below. Since discovering the Gartley, I'm a lot less bullish today...
Latest moves after twin flash crash with notable bearish divergence (higher highs vs lower lows) show a strong bullish move to test top of channel, but the 0.382 Fibo retracement on this week's WXY correction strongly suggests that the correction is not over and we may be due for an even stronger down wave to backfill all the gaps. Thisi sfurther supported by appearance of a rising wedge within the channel (on chart), converging at critical pivot.
Elliott wave charting is notoriously tricky and subjective, it depends entirely on who counts, and how the waves are labeled, and is not always clear. It is a powerful tool but you have got to get the counts right, relooking at that now and will publish a post dedicated to EW. I now wonder if we're in a giant ABC and the (V)(5) completed in January.
Therefore I urge extreme caution in taking any position in this market, either long or short, as we are likely due for consolidative whipsawing, at least, and possibly a real bad surprise coming in Sep/Oct.
Please compare the Gartley in my chart above with Bitcoin- virtually identical pattern and XABCD ratios- if Dow reaches 25917 it's a perfect Fibonacci 0.786 from January (Credit to Steffro for a post "Is Dow Jones About to Go Down? on 30 July):
A double top formation could signal the second bearish down move on the flagpole. The pole is 'A' wave of an ABC Elliott wave, with C leg nearly equal in depth to A. A = -3270; so C could go as low as 22650, but there is Strong Support (Marked SS4 in chart) at 23400 reaching back to Nov 2017.
I have posted a bullish alternative model which may still be possible, but I'm starting to worry that analysis may be based on erroneous wave counts, and I did not look far back enough to spot the Gartley but felt that I was missing something so dug deeper and found this rather alarming relationship.
The appearance of a bearish Gartley pattern in a Bear Flag Channel combined with an exhaustion gap of +300 and price divergence (see The_Unwind post on this) with higher highs following lower lows all point at a sharp selloff in September/October (the usual time of year for it).
I also noted that media keeps calling this "the longest correction on record" when in fact it may well be the beginning of a secular bear market following the longest bull run on record.
The parabolic rise in Jan followed by a second, lower top in August at 0.786 Fibo may be the harbinger of a real bear. I will be watching for the pivots and signals. Good luck!
A virtually identical Bear Flag example with bearish termination, even down to the exhaustion gap up detail marking the last wave up in channel:
www.google.com
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
Dow Fan Principle: Buy on third channel breakout; test coming!Dow has charted a hammer spike candle formation with massive reaction after. Hope you got to play that round from earlier posts!
Now comes critical test time- breakout or fakeout? Failure to break channel upper trendline will lead to a precipitous decline- panic selling.
Gann fan shows of the prior breakout attempts from the flag channel, in April/May and June, turned back at 2/1 and 3/1 resistance zones.
Now index has charted a powerful bullish wave through the 4/1 zone and found strong support at nearly exactly Fibo 0.382 and leaped back into action- 8/1 final test this week, sure hope we get good grades!
Will it break out to upside or be pushed back into channel? Elliott wave analysis strongly suggests we have a (3) of (5) wave forming now which might have the power to carry index to ~26492 (see estimate derivation in prior post).
Technically, this is a Bear Flag formation and a likely outcome could be to break down from resistance at upper channel trendline:
speedtrader.com
However it may still resolve to upside and the bullish impulse may be strong enough to breakout, if it does, as this is the third breakout, I'll buy into it!
tradingsim.com
tradingsim.com
I have examined the chart within channel and do not find a Gartley relationship in the past six weeks' trading pattern; the cup-and-handle pattern is evident, however.
As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
USDCAD Bear FlagUSDCAD is in a bear flag similar to the on it was in in 2016-2017. Today the stops were run from traders who were shorting the top of the current flag. Afterwards we saw a very strong revesal back down which indicates the initial spike was a stop run. After clossing back inside the bear flag we should see a very large sell off begin similar to 2017. I am short with stops at 1.34 and very optimistic targets. Good Luck.
LTCUSDT Short scenarioLTC had created a nice W formation and has now formed an inverted bear flag at the end of it.
This could be a good potential short setup.
We want to watch for first a break of the 50 EMA and then a break of lower trend line with confirmation.
If we break the lower trend line we will likely head back down to support around $116 then $109 if that doesn't hold
RSI is on a downtrend and currently hovering around 55
This is not financial advise. Just sharing a potential scenario.
$PAGS -- Bear Flag of Wedge?Pagseguro or $PAGS, the Square of Brazil, with interesting formation coming out of IPO base. Strong hedge fund interest. H&S formation with a bear flag or larger wedge formation developing?
Bear flag confirming our next stop? (BTC)Hello everyone
A lot of great fundamental news in today's headlines, unfortunalty I can't say the same about the technical analysis, let's get straight into this.
fundamental
There were a lot of rumours going around of investors and analysist, who are claiming that ethereum futures are around the corner. Ethereum had had a very good couple of days last week and the rumour spread all over social media. Yesterday cointelegraph wrote an article that CME group wil launch an ethereum price index in partnership with ethereum future exchanges. This is a huge deal! This is allowing more institutions (=more money) to get involved. The market can become more mature and less volatile.
Other great news is that coinbase is targeting $10bln institutional investors with new suite of products. All these things stimulate the 2 most important things in the cryptomarket right now: awareness and adoption
technical
On the technical side it doens't look very positive on short term.
First of all you can see a huge bear flag. it's noticeable that every time BTC is in a very aggressive uptrend, it always goes down in the next month or two. This pattern is telling us nothing good for now.
IOTA/BTC 4H BULL FLAGIOTA/BTC 4H - BEARISH FLAG
This scenario, in my humble opinion is most likely to happen.
Then we would have clear ABC correction to 0.5 fib levels.
This actually might happen if BTC make any sudden rupture moves.
For now I would stay away for the trade and if I were to enter IOTA/BTC I'd ladder my buy order in the red rectangle zone. Perhaps even in the golden pocket zone, depending on BTC moves.
ESI! Reflection of SPY This is an hourly chart that I Find to be very trendy. The 50% overall angle of attack makes this a measured move and I believe we are forming the head at the moment of a failed cup and handle quite perfectly on a 50 degree angle of attack. The right shoulder should form around 2675 area. Then, continuation of the daily Inverted Cup and Handle.
$BTC on you MARK, GET SET, GO?!2 bear flags are followed by 382 retracements when the 20 day bollinger is broken. Maybe a third is brewing. Look for bottom as 20 and 200 day BB are broken. RSI resistance has been helpful and has now flipped down into next flag. This could be the beginning of something incredible.
BTC Pain Train Incoming?As mentioned in my previous post, BTC bulls had to make a move this past weekend, which they did, but is it enough? They pushed the price up to around $7150 as shown by the blue arrow. From that point we lost almost the entire weekend's gain in one 4H period.
Since this drop Monday morning there has been some upward consolidation, which I have shown in the blue bear flag (which has terrible flag formation). There is also a descending triangle in orange which is usually a bearish indicator.
My long term MACD chart (that I showed in my last Idea) shows a wedge forming that is driving the MACD below the histogram zero line. This paired with the descending triangle looks like this weekend will be another make or break period for Bitcoin in the short term. The MACD is an indicator and does not always correlate to what will happen, but in this case it is supported by price action as well.
The $6420 to $6520 region seems to be an extremely strong support. It is a long term uptrend as well as the 100% retrace from the $9180 to $6450 price drop we recently underwent. The volume profile indicates this as well, look at how little this volume region is compared to the price points above it. The bulls DO NOT want this price point to break down, doing this will confirm the bear trend is still ongoing and kill market sentiment even more.
My downside target is the same as last weekend, right at $6000. If there is another breakout we could potentially see $7200, but more like to hit ~$7050.
