EUR/GBP Looking for a Short Trade by ThinkingAntsOk🔸 4H CHART EXPLANATION:
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🔸 Price broke the Ascending Trendline after bouncing at a Daily Resistance.
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🔸 We consider it has potential to make a downside move towards the Support Zone at 0.8700.
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🔸 On a lower timeframe, there is a clear consolidation/corrective move.
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🔸 Will take a short trade based on that corrective pattern.
🔸 DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
Bearish-setup
NZD/CAD Breakout Confirmed by ThinkingAntsOk🔸 4H CHART EXPLANATION:
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🔸 Price was facing the Resistance Zone and we were waiting for a definition.
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🔸 Now, we can see that price left some strong bearish rejections at the zone, and the Ascending Trendline of the movement has been broken.
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🔸 It has potential to make a downside move towards the Support Zone.
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🔸 Will look for a lower timeframe bearish setup.
🔸 DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
USD/CAD - Wait for this before going short by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
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🔸 Price has reached a Major Resistance Zone, and was rejected there.
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🔸 We consider it has bearish potential.
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🔸 The target of the downside move is the first Support Zone, and, if it is broken, then the next one.
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🔸 We will look for a lower timeframe bearish setup only if the Ascending Trendline is broken.
DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
NZD/JPY Bearish Scenario by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
🔸 Price is on a downtrend after being rejected at the Resistance Zone.
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🔸 For the last weeks, it has been on a consolidative move, which we were waiting to be broken.
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🔸 The breakout was to the downside, so, we consider it has potential to reach the Support Zone.
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🔸 We are waiting for a lower timeframe corrective move to consider short positions.
DAILY CHART ANALYSIS:
Wait for this on EUR/USD before going short. By ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
As we can see, this pair is on a clear downtrend on the 4H timeframe. However, right now it is facing an important Support Zone, which has to be broken before considering short positions. We think that price may bounce or correct a little on this area, before starting a new bearish impulse. Once the Support Zone is broken, we will look for a lower timeframe setup to get involved.
DAILY CHART:
BTCUSD: Decision Point Incoming and It Looks Bearish!If you look at the yellow circle you'll see a support cluster at 3895 if broken we will likely retest the upbound of the channel, but if Bitcoin can't break this support cluster we will likely see a flash crash in the near future. So, how do I know we haven't bottomed? The Fidelity prerelease is the most bullish news we have had in almost a year and the market reacted slightly bearishly. This has happened over and over again. Until we set a higher high on the weekly this bear market isn't over.
Market update - Week 31: Now that everyone is bullish… Hello again, welcome to another weekly bitcoin update. We discussed our longer term view in yesterdays monthly outlook (linked below). Now let’s look at the more immediate future, and how we can get positioned in the market.
Weekly
We talked about the weekly chart yesterday in a greater detail, so we’ll keep it brief here. The link to yesterdays post is at the bottom of this update, be sure to check that out.
The only things we’ll say here is:
We’re coming up to the weekly kijun, setting us up for a bearish kijun bounce. As we discussed yesterday, this is not only the area of the weekly kijun but a zone of (multiple timeframe) confluence of many resistances.
We had 2 huge weekly candles in a row, in a bear market. Many will shout at the top of their voices that this is bullish, and it is the end of the bear market. That makes us even more confident it definitely isn’t. We view it as a a sign of tremendous weakness: fomo traders blindly entered the market after a short squeeze, resulting in the second big positive candle. Fomo traders aren’t smart traders, and their hand is usually weak: They will probably panic sell as fast as they fomo bought. And this means that when the price starts dropping, it will drop fast.
We got in the those candles up, and out near the top. We’re now in a strong position, waiting for the market to show us a sign of collapse to get in short. Again we must not jump the gun here: we’re still in a range, and have a possibility of another way up, squeezing all the shorts who weren’t positioned correctly.
Let’s view the daily chart for more detail
Daily
This is where the action is, and there’s a number of things going on.
Firstly, we can see chikou and kijun attempting to break out of the kumo within the next few days. Second, in our big weekly box of resistance, we;ve narrowed out a zone where we are likely to see a bearish reaction if price is able to push up one more wave. We’ll be looking for short entries if price makes it there. Our invalidation level will be around the 10.000 range.
Third, see all the blue support boxes? this is where we expect to find minor reactions on our way down to 6000, and eventually 5000.
Now what does this all mean for our scenario? Are we long now, short later? Do we wait? Do we short now?
Price is still ranging, so taking a trade now would be the same as taking the trade last week.. too speculative and prone to liquidation. We’ll have to wait for price to work out this range, between the support and resistance box.
2HR
The 2HR chart doesn’t show us much more. Ichimoku is in equilibrium, and momentum is building up ready to be released. But this will probably not happen until the market took out all the stop losses, only then will it go on its way. Don’t be one of those stop losses, be a passenger on the price train. You just have to wait for it to get to our station :)
Here;s the link to our Longer term market outlook, check it out! And follow us to receive our updates on the developing scenarios.
BITCOIN Showing Bearish SetupWe want to show you our view of a typical and perfect Elliott Wave setup on a lower timeframe.
So, as you can see, BTC turned sharply from highs and we can clearly count five waves down, which is our signal of a trend reversal and in EW theory is called Impulse wave.
Then we can see a clear three-wave regular 3-3-5 correction, with three waves up into wave (A), three waves down into wave (B) and now we are heading into wave (C) with five waves up towards resistance zone 17500-18000, where we also see important 78,6% Fibonacci retracement level and equal legs of (A) = (C).
As always, to find the right entry position, we always wait for confirmations. Confirmations are very important, because signalize that we are on the right way, so in this case our confirmation would be a break beneath 14000 level, so if BTC break under 14000 level, we expect even more weakness towards new lows, where next target can be around 8000 support level or maybe even lower.
As said above, we are bearish, and will keep looking lower unless 20k is broken out. Then we may adjust the view.
EURUSD: 2nd AttemptEuros keeps on climbing compared to the dollar. But the dollar will eventually have to have a corrective phase. I believe this might be the phase, having divergence on the daily time frame, a harmonic pattern for bearish entry, and 2 doji rejecting indicating an exhaustion for higher highs. What are your thoughts?
Trade with care.
Bearish GartleyEURUSD is running slowly. Seems to be consolidating around this area, therefore it is a great time to look for some harmonic patterns to trade. We have here a harmonic pattern formation for a bearish entry. Price might push a little higher than my entry level, up to the 1.414 fib level. If it does, I will be adding some position to that level as well.
Trade with care.
EURUSD: Will it Reverse?EURUSD keeps on pushing high. It finally reach the 1.20 area and is now showing signs of a huge resistance level. Looking for a shorting opportunity for next week will be great. The daily time frame is showing bearish candle formation. After today US data release, price pulled back right into the 61.8 fibs before falling back down. All are great signs of downside potential. We might eventually get a head and shoulder in the coming weeks. What are your thoughts?
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Trade with care.
NZDUSD: This can confirm NZDUSD ReversalIn order for the recent head and shoulder to be considered the top of the pair for weeks to come is for it to retrace to the right shoulder and continue making newer lows.
I am in favor of this happening, as the US data has been good, also taking into account the correction needed if these USD pairs want to continue even higher.
Trade with care.
GBPUSD - Short opportunity and analysisAnother pair on my radar for this week is GBPUSD. As you can see we have broken previous structure and all other signs are also primed towards more downside. At least on the short-term side of things. I will be waiting for price action to reach the 'reaction zone', where we will wait for a reaction. Before I enter the trade I need to see some type of resistance at the 1.2462 level. There is a lot of interesting news coming out this week for GBP, tomorrow we have CPI figures coming and Wednesday we have Carney speaking of the Bank of England. I hope one of those fundamentals can be the driver that pushes up the price, or in case we make it to the zone before, the driver that pushes it downwards.
Once again it is a simple waiting game, we wait to see what price action does, we wait to see if it goes our way, we wait to see if it gives us our sell signal and we wait for it to hit stops or targets.
If you have any questions, please ask them, or if you want me to analyse a currency pair for you, let me know. Keep trading simple and I'll catch you next time.
EUR/GBP: looking bearish next weekPrices are currently stuck between H4 KS and H4 TS.
As shown in the chart, I think we can see more downside pressure the week ahead as long as H4 KS is not broken. Prices are well down below KUMO and we are seeing a resistance on H1 at around 0.85350.
SL at around 0.85650
Entry below 0.85
TP 0.835 /38.20% fib retracement
Watch out carefully any macro event next week!
Trade with care guys
Best,
Jesse