$EURUSD: "Structured Consolidation" Breeds Pattern OpportunityIt's been a very slow week for Jason Stapleton & the Trend Continuation side of the Syndicate, yet a very busy week for those who trade advanced patterns.
The majority of advanced patterns are formed when the market is in what we like to call "Structured Consolidation" and this week more than a handful of the pairs in my portfolio are doing so.
I'm currently short the $EURUSD on the bearish Cypher and if everything plays out the way I'd like, then I'll also be collecting profits and getting long at the potential bullish one in green (assuming it stays valid).
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Akil Stokes
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Bearish Cypher
Do You Have The Balls To Short USDCAD???Only a brave man would short the USDCAD right now but hey a cypher is a cypher. I'm already long on a trend continuation trade on this pair so I'm gonna be staying out of this one but if you have the balls to short what i consider to be a very bullish market then go for it. Caution though: RSI is not yet oversold and there's a strong bullish momentum.
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EURUSD : late night bear Cypher forming on the hourly Bearish Cypher pattern @ 1.09225
Target 1 1.08933
Target 2 108742
Stops 1.09556 (Based off of a 1.13 fib inversion from the C to X leg)
In addition to that, we have other reasons for entry. Not only does the pattern complete in an area where three major resistance levels coalesce (as dictated by the four hour), the overall leg of the move down has a .618 retrace in that same congestive area where the pattern completes.
Note the B to C leg pattern and how the pattern is not drawn from the wick down there in this particular instance. That is because according to rules governing cyphers, that actually is a 1.618 extension. However, the pattern is allowed to wick down there, provided it closes at or above the 1.414 which it did in this instance.
I predict we will wick to the completion point of the pattern, as price will test this strong area and ultimately get rejected downwards. This pattern has an ugly risk/reward profile, so plan accordingly....
EURUSD Short: Cypher + Crab + S/REURUSD is nearing the completion of a highly confluent bearish PRZ. The projections and retracements of two harmonic patterns coincide in a tight area of resistance which falls in a broad area of S/R. Entry is placed at .786CD with SL at 1.13XA and target at .382CD.
Confluence in the PRZ:
Bearish Cypher
1.618BC Projection (Cypher)
2.272AB=CD (Cypher)
Bearish Crab
4.5BC Projection (Crab)
1.5AB=CD (Crab)
AUDUSD Short: Cypher Inside of ChannelAUDUSD is nearing the completion of a bearish cypher pattern on the 1HR chart. The PRZ may find resistance from the center of a rising channel. Entry is placed at the top of the PRZ with SL at 1.13XA and target at .5CD.
Confluence in the PRZ:
Bearish cypher
1.272BC Projection
2.5AB=CD
Channel center resistance
S/R Zone
SIRIUS/XM Holdings, reasons to get short....
FUNDAMENTALS
Arguably, satellite radio will be a phased out technology in the coming years. What the blackberry has been to communication devices, satellite radio will soon find itself in the dustbin of consumer products. Ever wonder why the SEC had such little problem with the Sirius/XM merger in the first place? The marriage of these two companies was figuratively monopolistic in the sense that they are the only game in town when it comes to SATELLITE RADIO, but there are so many other products it has it contend with.... It has to withstand a withering barrage against other products and services, such as youtube with bluetooth smartphone technology, Pandora, and the like. Fewer and fewer vehicle manufacturers are offering that new Sirius/XM radio pre-installed as you roll off the lot. Moreover, more consumers will not go through the headache of buying, installing, and subscribing to the service when these items simply aren't already in the car. I'm also confident that many without a vehicle are simply disinterested in buying their portable devices. Simply put, it's worn off.
But.... what's propping up this company for so long? Enter the Howard Stern Show. Mr. Stern himself has been pulling further back and trying to market himself as a more family friendly person/elder statesman of radio. Case in point, the scaling back of 5 days of shows a week to 3 days a week, the elimination of his news department, and his involvement in the mainstream primetime show, "America's Got Talent.". Many hardcore Stern fans that have been with him since his peak in the 1990s have noticed a shift in his personality and show format that they find wholly unappealing, and has led to an online firestorm following an extended segment where he tried to adopt kittens out live on the air.
What's more is that Stern's contract is up this month. Even with a renewal of Mr. Stern's contract for a few more years, his dwindling involvement even as his potential employment continues will not signal any kind of surge in this stock's price. We see price approaching a resistance level around the $4.16 area, a place it has not traveled to since of October of 2013, but more on the technicals later. Point is, even a Stern re-sign isn't going to help the stock's price bust through this level.
I assert that the Stern Show is the only thing propping up this company. But as Mr. Stern makes awkward attempts to re-brand himself incongruent with his overall image, together with his dwindling involvement and resources devoted to his show, he continues to alienate even the most die-hard fans that support Sirius XM. The technology that competes with Sirius XM is becoming more lean and abundant and the show can only keep this company on life support for so long.....time to short. Long term, this stock WILL tank.
I invite anyone working for the Stern organization or Sirius/XM to contact me personally to help consult on how to right the ship here so their stock price's decline will not be as calamitous.
TECHNICALS
As previously mentioned, we are approaching a resistance level around the $4.16 level, a place that price action hasn't traveled to since October of 2013. Long term, this stock WILL tank, .For our swing trading friends, we see two opportunities associated with this resistance level. There is a Cypher pattern nearing completion there (red) and a bearish Gartley pattern starting to form in the vicinity. The fall of the price will not be without retracements, as evidenced by the bullish Cypher pattern that is out on the daily. The bearish advanced patterns mentioned here are a great way to get in on the short, but just be aware that this stock's price has been banging around a channel between $3.98 and $4.16.
Crude Oil CL 1hr TCT, Fib Inversion, & CypherWell its been no surprise that CL has been in a bear trend for quite some time. We will continue to keep selling the rallies. I just missed my fill on this trade. Maybe it will come back up for me.. We will see. The TCT was based on the 78.6% fib retracement and Fib Inversion Trade which completes at the 1.618% ext. The pullback also put in a harmonic move (not shown on chart).
Entries, Stops, and Targets are all shown on chart.
The Cypher Pattern i'm not worried about right now because its a long ways away and we could re-visit previous lows and still have the Cypher Pattern Valid.
AUDCAD Bearish Cypher completedBearish Cypher has been completed in AUDCAD giving decent risk/reward profile.
You should notice that price has just break through a descending trendline, so it seems that trend is really up. This is a countertrend trade, so you should
TRADE WITH CAUTION!
Short @ 0.99375
Bearish Cypher At Structure ZoneA trend continuation trade lining up on the GBPUSD with a bearish cypher pattern presenting itself as an entry method. The advanced patterns D completion point comes in at previous structure which has been tested numerous times giving us a stronger reason for getting short. First targets here could be at a retest of the structure lows looking for the fib extension or structure again for target twos.
As always we're aware of the GBP's bank rate news etc that is released tomorrow.