Daily bearish divergence + rejected 200 day MA (BTC) Greed killsGood afternoon traders,
I've been waiting for all the euphoric traders to catch themselves slipping acting like "up only" and the bull market is back on and today we're currently down $2000 from the local top where we rejected the 200 day MA and also printed a bearish divergence (see momentum oscillator - stoch rsi for reference)
Bearish divergence:
1) Price action prints a higher high
2) Momentum oscillator prints a lower high
(Indicating weakness in the trend)
If this plays out we should retest $39,999 at least and if this holds it's possible we head higher in the short term but if that support fails this will be a confirmed fake out (liquidity grab) while institutions (whales) get out of their longs and then sell while retail fomo's into a long at the top and gets greedy/euphoric.
The markets are designed to play against human emotion and the masses (90%) while the 10% countertrades their every move and get hilariously rich over the long run if they stay consistent with this formula.
Pay attention to the market when most are fearful and note what happens next, same goes for when most are greedy.
They provide liquidity for whales to get out of their previous position while they are entering new ones.
Bearishdivergence
BTC- H4 - RISING WEDGE - TARGET 40'640 !Looking at the H4 time frame, a Rising Wedge pattern has been confirmed, opening the door for
a technical target of 40'640 !
Additional support to this expected scenario will be given by a next H4 closing below TS, currently @ 43'803
Below next support to look at will be MBB @ 42725 ahead of KS @ 41'327
In the meantime, watch carefully upcoming development in the next couple of hours in screening very closely price action on
H1 and shorter time frames which will help you to validate or invalidate the above scenario explained.
Finally, today's closing level on a daily basis will also be important as on D1 there is a bearish divergence on RSI ....
Have a nice end of the weekend and all the best.
Take care.
Ironman8848
Short Position Set UpShort Entry price = 10.287
Stop Loss = 11.644
Take Profit = 8.239
Risk:Reward = 1.67
Reasons for entry:
1) 5 waves according to Elliott Wave Theory indicate a reversal ahead.
2) Bearish divergence on MACD and RSI
3) Much lower volume during the 5th wave compared with the 3rd indicates a reversal ahead.
4) Bitcoin has been trending lower meaning this 5th wave is artificial and the trend should revert back to the mean and drop like most other coins.
GL on this one. I won't be taking it as I have important commitments I need to focus on for tomorrow but I think it is a good trade.
This has a wide SL and TP (over 10% SL), so consider reducing your exposure to 0.5x to reduce your potential losses.
BTC Short PositionI have gone short again with 1x this time with a maximum loss of around 4.5% and a target profit of around 8%.
I ended up taking a tiny profit after yesterdays trade as the market did not break down as low as I wanted.
I think we have now finished the upward trend and it will break lower from here.
Why will we break lower?
1) Wave (iii) was almost 2.618 x wave (i). When wave 3 is as extended as this, the 5th wave will usually end when it hits 1.618 x wave (i) (added onto the end of wave (iv)). The top of wave (v) is exactly the 1.618 extension of wave (i), so I think we have topped out.
2) We have confirmed the 3rd touch of the white downward sloping trendline as a resistance has already been confirmed by bearish reversal candles.
3) We are seeing bearish divergence on the 3,4, and 6 hour charts on RSI and MACD.
Issues with this trade?
1) The lower time frames (1h and 2h) only show bearish divergence on RSI and not on the MACD histogram.
2) Wave (v) has spanned over much longer than wave (i). However, I believe that this is due to wave (v) being extended.
3) Wave (v) appears to have 3 waves instead of 5. This seems inconsistent with Elliott Wave theory but I have seen many wave 5's ending with only 3 waves.
Over I think this is a solid trade and I have set a stop loss to get out if we do break higher.
Target levels?
1) 38k - 39k
2) 36k - 37k
All the best, and good luck!
Rising Wedge on 4 hour with Bearish DivergenceToo my surprise XRP actually broke out of it's descending broadening wedge and reached full measure moves; i certainly flipped bearish on this one too soon the first time. But now that we have reached full targets i would expect that any bearish signal we get up here will carry more weight so i will be getting bearish up here again to see if i can catch another big move.
NASDAQ August AnalysisDaily bearish divergence. 4H symmetrical triangle. Currently rising flag pattern on 15 min inside the 4H zone indicating possible sell from zone. Once 4H closes below outside of triangle expecting price to go to 14500. That is neckline of the "Extended M Pattern". Since there is Daily bearish divergence it's possible for continuation from Daily "Extended M Pattern" neckline 14500 to 14000.
US30 August AnalysisWeekly and 4H bearish divergence. There is also a Daily "M Pattern". Expecting price to breakout of consolidation below 34870. Price may reject 4H trendline area. Strong possibility it breaks trendline and reaches daily neckline level of 34000-33761. If it does reach neckline look for possible continuation to 33215-33000 because of weekly bearish divergence and Daily "M Pattern".
BTC - D1/H4 - 38.2 % FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT @ 42'894 !D1 : Yesterday's price action triggered for the first time a closing level above the clouds with an intraday high @ 42'411, not far away of the
38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 42'894, which is the next significant resistance level after 40'000.
So what next, now ?
Despite this sharp recovery since over the last couple of days from a low below 30'000, the BTC remains, for the time being, still in a broad
downtrend, meaning still below the Daily downtrend line resistance (in red on the chart); interesting to note that this important resistance
level coincides roughly with the level of the 38.2% Fib ret above mentioned !!!
Looking at the RSI indicator which is currently above the 70.00 (72.36), it looks a little bit tired... today's and upcoming price action should be
watch at very carefully.
H4 : This time frame is showing a rising wedge pattern in progress, couple with a RSI double bearish divergence which already triggered a downside
correction.
Watch 40'371-40'234 as first support area ahead of 39'560 (KS) and rising wedge support line; a failure to stay and hold sustainably above 39'500 would
confirm a top in place in opening the door for lower levels towards the H4 clouds support zone, currently around 37'300-35'000)
On the upside, a breakout of the former high @ 42'411 would directly put the focus on 42'894 ahead of 47'095
Watch also Chikou (lagging span) on D1, currently in the middle of the clouds (41'705) as an upside breakout of the clouds would also give more support for further upside.
Finally, watch also shorter time frames to get intermediate signal (s) which will allow you to detect early signs of trend reversals and last but not least watch the clouds
and Mid Bollinger Band on each time frame you are looking at :-)
Have a nice weekend.
And if you find my analysis as a good added value for you, please do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet, please add Ironman8848 on your following list.
Take care and have fun.
Best
Ironman8848
Amazon (also) Appears to be in Wycoffian DistributionThe main chart has the Wycoffian distribution spelled out and if you want to check it against the criterion you can follow the link below, hit ctrl-f and search for "Distribution: Wyckoff Events" and you will be right there. Not everything is annotated, the chart would be way too cluttered.
school.stockcharts.com
www.ltg-trading.com
As it stands I am still waiting for my entry to buy some OTM puts( I do have some SPXU and SQQQ calls that are going well but I don't feel the stress is worth it). Very often when the price breaks through the ice there is a low volume rally to the ice, or at the lower end of the ice range and that gives you the best chance for an entry into an impulsive move. In other words almost any continuation pattern around the ice should have a high probability of breaking down bearishly and any bearish patterns (like rising wedges) are definitely bearish.
On the weekly chart we clearly see that the price action has been rangebound almost straight sideways but the On Balance Volume itself and the EMAS have been trending downward with the 20EMA bearishly over the 10. What remains to be seen is if the 100 OBV EMA will hold the OBV or the 10 and 20 OBV EMAs. If the obv EMAs stack fully bearishly then the price will look like a cat swiped it off the table. We can also see that the MACD has a lot of bearish divergence as well as the MACD histogram. The MTF VSTOP reinforces the trend as being bearish by providing resistance that is automatically and dynamically drawn, so I can't mess it up.
The monthly chart below confirms that the ice isn't some random price action I observed, it was the long term VSTOP support. Back testing the chart shows that when the MTF VSTOP gets broken on the monthly we can expect some wicking below the 20 period SMA. Likewise, when the MACD crosses the signal line bearishly or goes red the 20 period SMA is a good place to accumulate. Even in late 2014 when we closed a monthly candle below the 20 we were fine. I have not shown the OBV in the chart below because it does not have any serious signals except the OBV has been trading around the 10 EMA.
Some Macro stuff
The only way we go much below the 20 period SMA is if we have a the NASDAQ bubble completely pop or a financial crisis like 2008. That scenario is certainly on the table given how horrific the news cycle appears to be and if international trade slows and the news picks up about supply chain problems Amazon is going to be hit particularly hard. Then we start looking for a long term value buy at the monthly bollinger band which is conveniently right around the ascending triangle. It is also rather convenient that the price is distributing right above the target of the ascending triangle. Pure support and resistance traders would be looking for the top of the triangle to be tested as support anyway. Debt is also getting expensive and so there is less easy money for firms and with inflation picking up there should be less items consumed at a higher price, which means less orders from Amazon
Please have a look at my Wycoff chart on the NASDAQ Futures if the subject interest you.
BTC SHORT trade - Good RRRThere are major bearish signs for bitcoin at the moment:
1) Bearish divergence on the 1,2,3,4 and 6 hour time frames on RSI and MACD.
2) There are 5 waves to the upside that can clearly be counted on the 1h chart.
3) There is a head and shoulders pattern as you can see with the left shoulder labelled as 'LS', right shoulder 'RS', and head 'H' in the analysis.
4) We can have hit the 40k resistance.
I have gone short here with 1.5x and I plan to ride this down a nice amount.
Let me know if you have any other ideas.
Good luck, all the best.
Super Bearish Weekly Wick & RSI Divergance - Critical PointThe market retracement gave the DXY a lifeline which has caused it's opposite pairs to take a huge dip leaving one of it's pairs - the NZD/USD with a super bearish wick at a critical resistance zone which stems all the way to Summer of 2016.
X/USD pairs have been having a whale of a time since the market sell off back in March and I have been expecting a reversal here from the NZD/USD for a good while now.
The bearish RSI divergance is indicated by the red diagonal lines.
My target here, as indicated on the chart is the 0.6800 zone & with a tight stop loss above the resistance we are left with a pleasant risk to reward here.
With such a huge rejection at a very obvious key level, the markets finally seeming to be heading into a correction phase (which might be filthy if the fed stop printing) and the clear bearish RSI divergance all kindly indicate that this is due a sell off.
Just my 2 cents.
Eth looks like a shortPrice has moved up for the last couple of days and with what I see I have put a short on and will be planning to take profit on this descending triangle structure. The main chart goes over a lot but lets expound
At the left of the chart the Keltner Channel bottom acted primarily as support and price often went above the the Keltner channel and moved the bollinger band upward for months. There was topping behavior in May and we now have what I see is a clear descending triangle. The price action was closing whole candles below the Keltner. On the run up there are candle with bodies below the candle, but they had some structure in the Keltner. Whole candles below the Keltner signals a lot of selling pressure.
Price action has dropped from the resistance of the triangle to the support when there where bearish K-D crosses. The middle red circle did require a double cross as the topping behavior went on a bit longer. This last and current black circle and red arrow may also require a double K-D cross. As I assess this, it is a high probability short due to the overall structure and time it has to develop as well at being at the Keltner when it has begun to act as resistance.
On a lower time frame at the blue arrow I see lots of signs that ETH was topping here. Lots of wicks to the up and downside and the bodies getting very tight and then a clear red candle with no upside wick.
The standard 4 hour candles show we had a symmetrical triangle structure that broke down after a MACD cross. This can still chop side ways or even up a little but there is a lot of bearish divergence on the 4 hour chart with the RSI. Between the daily descending triangle and that 4 hour MACD cross I see a high probability that we go down shortly. Stocks can get relatively tight.
Bitcoin's recent volatility has not changed a bearish biasSo far Bitcoin has had a good couple of days and I see lots of people in real life as well online starting to get bullish and looking at putting on some big bets and so far I don't see the justification for that enthusiasm. I will link some ideas that make the macro bearish case to keep this post from ballooning even more.
Analysis
The bollinger bands can help determine trend merely by how they are angled... up, sideways or downward. You can also see "expansive" moves when the bollinger bands widen and you can see if it has been a really long time since the bottom of the bollinger band has been tested or if the top of the bollinger band has not been tested in a long time. Also, the daily VSTOP very close to the top of the daily BB. I suspect of volatility traders will be expecting the move to end here.
The first thing that BTCUSD will have to do before I start to change my bearish bias is start to move the daily BB sideways and then start to get it to move upward. That process can take months so I don't feel I am missing out of I don't rush to put a trade on in the next couple of days. Again, there is is also a very real chance that price action gets ripped to shreds at the top of the daily BB and VSTOP.
To be fair, the markets could potentially display a lot of upside potential. Here is the 3 day chart with both the standard and crypto ichi-moku cloud settings. The T-K displayed are for the crypto cloud and the high points are summarized on the chart. There are a lot of powerful moves in both directions when we are in the previous two black boxes but the ultimately we saw a bearish breakdown. It is just a very low probability scenario in my opinion.
s3.tradingview.com
My Trade Set Up thought Process
As it stands on the 12 hour (and below) the RSI is already divergence to price action with hidden bearish divergence. Taking a short at or about the top of the daily BB would be a very technical move as the BB charts potential support and resistance and when it appears resistance or support is being met it can be evaluated with indicators.
To try and limit any losses I am going to be waiting for a red shadowless Heikin Ashi candle on the 12 hour on BTC or other crypto to put my short order on. Target setting will be based on the idea BTC is in a head and shoulders. That means I am prepared to short this right shoulder to past the neckline but will be on guard for a return move to the neckline and then another rejection. If I don't get the red candle I want I wait. I can literally just evaluate the charts ever 12 hours for a couple of minutes while I check the list of coins I want to put my shorts on unless I am looking to write an idea. The linked ideas show how I set the macro trend and why I am using a low time frame (daily BB and 12h candles) to set my entry. If you review the watchlist from the main chart I am still on #1 of the watchlist. Which means I personally have a long way to go before I personally start to take longs or move out of stable coins. Rather than buying dips and selling into strength I am looking to short the rip.
Linked Ideas summary
The first three ideas are my system for confirming market bias using the Volatility Stop on multiple time frames in conjunction with some other simple and fundamental technical analysis. The VSTOP is based of a measure of volatility, the Average True Range. If you read all three you will see plenty of re-iterations of the same concept but you should understand why by bias is so bearish. The last idea is where I think we will see a major stall in downtrend and potential reversal.
Still prefer to short thishi guys, as this gbpusd is getting higher, short idea is popping up.... Here I think USD still playing a better role here... as recently we haven't test 3rd time at the bottom. what I'm looking for is a 2nd test and if the pressure is overwhelming, we gonna see the weekly target 61.8 get hits.
YFII/BTC analysis: expecting a bearish movement.Hi every one
YFII/BTC
YFII/BTC has been ranging in a channel for quite sometime. If you pay attention you can see that the price couldn't break the resistance (around 0.07 which is shown in the picture). so there is a strong chance that the price won't be able to break this resistance again and would fall to the support level once again. there is also a regular bearish Divergence (-RD) visible on both MACD and RSI which makes the expected bearish movement more reliable to happen!
Traders, if you liked this idea or have your opinion on it, write in the comments, We will be glad.
Things can change...
The markets are always changing and even with all these signals, the market changes tend to be strong and fast!!
Thank you for seeing idea .
Have a nice day and Good luck