Bitcoins Upwards Trend Line in Danger or Just a RetestHere we can see how ETH followed the 'rules' quite well, with staying below that resistance. For bitcoin it was more difficult to determine that level. Rather had seen it stay below the 8700ish. But it was weekend and they pushed it up with very low volume all the way up from the 8300/8400.
Now we can see why they did it, because volume was that low, they created a stop loss zone for shorts and pushed it up from the 8600 to eventually 8850 even. Why i think this theory is likely, because we moved up with very low volume, but even more, selling volume was much bigger at those 2 drops. Even looks like that final push up from 8750 to 8850 was just to close longs or fill up shorts.
These are theories that can be a bit subjective, so now to the facts. On the left we can see a clear up trend line, which we are testing once again. So normally if it breaks with good volume we should see at least a retest of the green support on the left. At this point it's very likely to happen, unless we see that bear flag range (in the middle chart) fail. So we should stay below the 8550ish from now on. The longer we hang around that red trend line, the bigger the odds it will break.
Previous analysis i talked about an ABC correction, where we possibly even completed it with that big drop few days ago (similar to 2 weeks ago, yellow circles). But with this drop and the reasons described above, good chance that it might become a normal bigger ABC this time. The target of C wave, is IMO always a subjective thing. Usually it's a similar size as wave A (so around 1000/1200) so a drop to like 7900/7900. But it could hold above 8000 as well but also drop much more even. A lot will depend on the volume. That volume shows the market intentions a bit. On the daily we can see that volume is still showing that bull trend is in favor. No matter what my thoughts on lower time frames are, i don't become really bearish until i see a big sell volume candle, reaching those yellow circles. So even if i would be bearish now, i don't assume the trend for the coming weeks/months will be down again up until we see that big sell volume. Also means, if sell volume doesn't start to
To give an impression of this, chart below shows a few of the previous highs in 2018. During the 5K movement a month ago, i kept mentioning this fact, that as long as we don't see this, we should not assume that the high is set already. I saw many people already thinking that the high is set already because of numerous reasons. Those reasons were legit, normal TA, but you simply can not ignore the King of all indicators, which is volume. Volume are buyers and sellers and the buyers and sellers determine all the TA patterns and all the indicators out there.
Anyway, for now i think we should keep it simple, bears are a bit in favor here at this point. As long as the bulls don't break this bear flag in the middle on the upside, chances of a break of that red trend line remains likely. But we should also not forget, as long as it doesn't break, it's simply still is a upwards trend line. For it's just always a sign, that when we see a drop at nr 1 and then a second test, without being able to make a higher high first (so break the break the 9000ish first), it can be a sign of top formation. Or at least that it needs more consolidation before moving up again. If this last case is what we are seeing now, it could be we are going to see like an upwards triangle from 27-05 at the 8000. As i have drawn on the left. Of course anything is possible, but seeing a second triangle immediately after the one we had at 6800/8400 a few weeks ago, is not likely.
So my short term view is down, as long as we stay below the 8550ish and for ETH around 265/7. Before i forget, in the beginning where i talk about volume increase if we do drop and break the bear flag, we should see it increase from around that yellow circle at 8350/8400.
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