WTI LONG I've decided to open a new long position in oil FPMARKETS:WTI , despite the odds not being particularly favorable. My reasoning is based on observing strong support at the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), which I had been waiting for to confirm a solid reaction before entering.
On the weekly chart, the outlook leans more bearish, and this week’s performance will be crucial in determining the market's clear direction.
While the 1-hour chart shows a decent reaction, it’s from a lower timeframe, which doesn’t carry much weight in terms of broader market strength.
Looking at the daily timeframe, the market structure is not encouraging. We’ve seen a consistent pattern of lower swing lows, adding pressure to the overall setup.
Trading management
However, on the 15-minute chart, this trade aligns perfectly with my approach: stop-loss just below the wick, as the candlestick has shown strong respect for this level. My take-profit is targeting liquidity on the buyer’s side. I plan to take partial profits at $71.46 and move my stop-loss to break even.
71.46-->RR: 4.19
74.24-->RR: 7.54
Capital risk: 1%
Bearishfvg
USDNOK ShortBearish Probabilities for USD/NOK: 88.89%
📉 Bearish arguments:
- Monthly PCH respected.
- Weekly FVG respected.
- Weekly swing high swept.
- Daily PCL disrespected.
- Daily swing low disrespected.
- Daily bullish FVG disrespected.
- 4H FVG respected.
- 4H swing low disrespected.
- 4H swing high respected.
📈 Only one bullish argument:
- Monthly PCL respected which is our PD Array.
Trade Management: SL is positioned at the start of the Daily FVG, as a break there would signal a clear reversal or consolidation. TP is placed at the SELL STOP level, although if reached, the price may quickly target the DOL point. I will lock in profits at the first target and look for another entry afterward.
Risk: 2%
R/R: 2.06
Bitcoin Long idea on it5 Bullish arguments for BTC:
- Bullish FVG weekly being respected
- Swing low being respected
- 3rd candle did not close above the 2nd candle high
- Pull back into the FVG
- Bullish FVG being respected so far
Trade Management: SL placed below the swing low, TP at the intermediate high.
Capital Risk: 1%
R/R: 2.43