Get started

Bearishmomentum

NZDUSD - FURTHER DOWNSIDE ?NZDUSD on the weekly timeframe looks to create a closing bearish engulfing candle. With data from the US still topsy turvy / if, but, maybe a trade deal, then the uptick in NZD may have to wait a while until it finds buyers at a lower level around the 0.6090 August 2015 spike. Trades to the long side of NZD are increasing but the strength in USD may well keep it subdued. Maybe look to trade it against a weaker currency ? Keep a look out next week on the price action to see if NZD drops below previous structure lows for clues to see how much further the downside will be.
Short
by LIONHEART-FX
Why BITCOIN WAS STUCK ON 10K ? Follow the Week Wave!Hello followers, It is great to be back on TradingView, I love this job. So, the big question is, why were all the bulls wrong?? Why BTC bulls got trapped on 10k, and now are running scared from BEARS... That is not an easy question, but single numbers could tell a lot. Check out these numbers of accounts and how many coins they have. If you check closely you will see that few accounts have most of the coins. bitinfocharts.com On the stock market and crypto, and everything you can sell, normally, less available means more expensive, or higher price. So, one way to trick the market is to re-buy your own shares or concentrate it on few hands, so others will try to buy it and not be able. But, and this is important, notice I said, "TRICK" the market. That means, it is not natural. Eventually, investors will see that manipulation is happening, and will notice that price is not in the right place, but overbought. A while ago, I stopped doing BITCOIN ANALYSIS because I could see manipulation on the chart. Suddenly my analysis were not working as they used to work. Now, everything changed, and that is why my charts are working again. Investors are not buying it, because many difficulties are ahead, and there was another bubble... What you are looking at is a weekly chart, main resistances (red) and main supports.(black) and Next Targets.. Let's ride the wave. Good Luck
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn5368510
BITCOIN - #BTCUSD - ANOTHER RESISTENCE ON THE LINE - TARGET HIT!Hello Everyone, When everybody was calling Bull, we called SHORT, and there it is, the chart worked like a charm. The target of U$ 8.226 was hit, and now a new resistance line is ahead of the price, that means will need a lot more strength to back to go back to 10k. A new broker is open bakkt, this move down hard could be related to investors making huge bets on Bitcoin fall. I will make another analysis to see what could be ahead. Stay tuned. Thanks for Following and trusting.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn5368510
1
GBPAUD - looking for a good price to re-enter short!From my last post on this pair, we did see that push to the downside based on a couple of economic factors. First the speculation of the RBA cutting rates did not occur like I suspected. Instead the rates were held in at 1.50%. Keep in mind we know the RBA will cut rates and now we might see that come in as early as next month as they have now stated 3 rate cuts might be occurring this year. That tells us those have already been priced into the market. Looking at things from the pound’s perspective, we have the Brexit dilemma which keeps getting a twist especially with the resignation of Theresa May. A lot of rumors are going around that Pro Brexiters will push for a no deal while the other extreme want to remain in the EU. The British will not be able to renegotiate the deal May made with the EU. Hence two things, either they revoke Article 50 or a hard Brexit will happen and it won’t be pretty. Moving to the technical analysis of this pair, I am looking for a retest of the 1.85 - 1.86 area as we currently sit on a temporary support to re-enter going short on this pair. The MACD confirms the bearish divergence just like I mentioned in my last post and with the fundamentals looking better for the Aussie, I am looking for this currency to pick up some steam. We should be seeing the 1.82 Price area once again. Remember, patience is key! GL DISCLAIMER!!!! My Ideas are mine and mine alone and are only to provide my perspective of the current market situation. Do not take my posts as trading decisions for entries or exit. Trading the FOREX market is very risky and indulge in it at your own risks!
Short
by TazTrades
Bitcoin: In A State Of Wait. Back To 3600?Bitcoin update: Since my recent report on here, this market continues to linger at the 4K resistance level. We have written a number of articles and posted numerous charts in our chatrooms, reiterating over and over as to why the best trade right now is no trade at all. It may be common sense to some, but many are still getting caught up in the noise, especially when looking at smaller time frames. An important lesson that is often overlooked is being able to judge the quality of your trading environment. Not all environments are created equal. Some are better for position trades, while others are more conducive for short term strategies. And for those who do not carry any Bitcoin inventory, the current environment does not offer attractive reward/risk for putting any new money to work. Since we do not day trade Bitcoin, or short it, the environment needs to fit very particular constraints in order for it to be worthy of taking on additional risk. This is a range bound market, clear and simple. The low 4K area is still the range resistance, while the lower 3K area is the range support. While we do hold inventory (position trade), it has been weeks since we have shared a swing trade. If you can't understand why, I have highlighted how we visualize the reward vs. risk within this environment. The green box is how we view potential reward, while the red box represents the potential risk. Why would we put on any new swing trades at range highs when chances are price is more likely to test much lower levels in the short term? Evaluating probabilities is what drives our decision making process. and many elements are considered, not just a simple candlestick or RSI signal. The fact that price is beginning to show signs of structural weakness confirms our reasoning that staying out of any new swing trades near the range highs is the best choice for now. Support levels begin around the high 3600s and continue through to the 3450 level. We don't pretend to know where price is going because we are not marketers. We do know where the support is and IF the market offers an opportunity to buy in those areas, then we are prepared. That is the best we can do as outsiders (working with public information). We exercise things that we can control like the amount of risk we take, and WAITING for the best possibilities. Sticking to these best practices is why our performance record is green. In summary, Bitcoin along with the entire space may be in the process of building a broader recovery over the long term, but the short term is just not in a position that offers attractive reward/risk. Although supply may be slowly removed from the market (Andrew wrote a recent article detailing his observations), it will take some time before the effects play out. So we will continue to WAIT for two particlar scenarios: price retraces toward the lower part of the range for a reversal to go long OR price breaks beyond 4150 and provides a momentum continuation pattern for a long. Since WAITING does not cost anything, we can WAIT for as long as it takes. Meanwhile, there are plenty of opportunities in the Forex and Stock markets. What would you rather do? WAIT for a high probabilitiy setup while losing nothing or take every setup and erode your account while getting caught up in noise?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
LTC within an H&S pattern, could look to double bottom.LTC is currently breaking down from its H&S (Head and Shoulders) pattern that is has been forming for several weeks. We completed the right shoulder after getting a bear wick rejection off of the .382 fib level around 33.93, and we have been on a respectable drop to the downside. If we take the measured move of the H&S, the target comes out to around our previous bottom around $22. The rest of the market has gotten smashed, so there is a chance we could be getting a relief bounce here in the near future, so we could see it retest the neck-line as new resistance around $31-32 before continuing downward. The daily stoch is bearish, and the daily RSI has plenty of room to move to the downside, so I think we should see LTC move lower. Just be sure to keep an eye on BTC, as it is near a critical support region with the 200 weekly moving average around 3300 and the .786 fib level around 3360, which be area's for the price to bounce up from. Strong resistance area's: 0.5 fib level around $32, 0.382 fib level around $33.90, and the daily moving averages. Targets: .618 fib level around $29.40, .786 fib level around $26.20, and the 1 fib level and previous bottom around $22. Moving average guide: 10 MA in Orange 20 MA in Pink 50 MA in Green 100 MA in Yellow 200 MA in Red -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
COINBASE:LTCUSDShort
by Deftsuo
Bitcoin: 3450 Support And Consolidating The Bottom.Bitcoin update: Price has taken out the recent bullish trend line which points to a higher likelihood of retesting the 3450 area minor support. From a broader perspective, all this market is doing is establishing another consolidation which is a normal part of the bottoming process. As we always remind our followers, tops and bottoms take time to develop. The key to managing risk effectively in these situations is to develop a number of scenarios and then constantly weigh the evidence as one begins to technically materialize. The easiest mistake you can make is to fixate on one single scenario. The appearance of a large bearish candle points to further weakness in terms of momentum. This scenario can lead to the 3450 support test or even a revisit of the 3K psychological support. It is always about “Ifs” not absolutes. IF price tests 3450 and presents a bullish pin bar, then that would be a setup we would consider for a new swing trade long. What if price breaks 3450 without any hesitation and closes the candle on its low? 3K becomes the greater possibility. What if price breaks 3K and closes weak? It can happen, and in such a series of events we have no problem stepping aside and waiting for a more supportive structure to return. Do not lose sight of the bigger picture in the face of a large bearish candle. As long as the 3K area is maintained, that would serve as evidence of a broader consolidation. There are opportunities within sideways markets also, but they require the most patience since they are the most infrequent. The best thing we can see in such a situation is a failed low off the 3K bottom. This is usually when the reaction of the herd becomes extreme, which can be observed by dramatic spikes in short interest. During these periods you will also notice extreme emotional reactions in public forums like this one. In summary, Bitcoin just like any other market is driven by the collective psychology of its most active participants. No one can accurately predict if this market is going much lower or not. Timing these markets effectively has little to do with prediction and everything to do with evaluating how new information is most likely to affect the perception of the herd in the near future. The highest probability setups are the ones where the crowd is faked out and caught on the wrong side. Your time is better spent learning to recognize the clues and then waiting for the evidence to appear, not chasing hype. Let Bitcoin find an appropriate level and then provide a solid reason to justify taking risk. The question is how well can you wait?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
Alibaba is in a clear downtrend. Don't be fooled by perma-bulls.Alibaba is in a clear downward trajectory, and the weekly moving averages would agree with that statement at this time. Currently, price bounced off of a previous zone we saw it wick to back in late October/early November, and price is currently retesting its previous support zone-now-turned resistance around 140. I'm watching the 200 weekly moving average an area for the price to potentially drop down to, and if we continue lower, I'm watching 110, 80-85, 75, and 58 as area's of potential support. As I've said in other posts on different stocks, these short-term rallies/dead-cat bounces are nothing to get caught up with in my opinion. Those perma-bulls on the mainstream media will continue encouraging people to "buy the dip" but to me, that notion is just stupid. We have been on a 10-year bull run and most stocks are extremely over-valued in my opinion and need to correct back down to lower levels. It's basic market cycles ladies and gentlemen. If we manage to get back above (and hold as support) several key moving averages, I will change my stance. For now, I remain bearish . Moving average guide: 10 MA in Orange 20 MA in Pink 50 MA in Green 100 MA in Yellow 200 MA in Red -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Deftsuo
AMZN bounced the 100 week MA. Strong overhead resistance still.AMZN bounced the 100 weekly moving average and bounced off of a prior support zone we saw it hold back in February and April of 2018. As I highlighted in my previous AMZN post (linked below,) I expected it to come down to the 100 weekly moving average, and that is exactly what it did. However, much like with other stocks, this to me looks like nothing more then a dead-cat bounce. We have strong over-head resistance from previous support zones which should in turn act as new resistance, and we are seeing evidence of that on the Daily chart as the price has failed to climb back above the 1480-1500 level that acted as support for the last 3 months before being broken. We have overhead moving averages on the Daily and on the Weekly chart which will also act as downward pressure. On the RSI, we can see it double-topped back in August, but the price action continued rising indicating a bearish divergence (as shown by the light-blue lines) and we saw the price action start to drop after this occurred. I am watching the 200 weekly moving average as the next area of interest if the price continues down. I will change my bearish stance if the price can get back above (and hold as support) several key moving averages. For now, I remain bearish. Moving average guide: 10 MA in Orange 20 MA in Pink 50 MA in Green 100 MA in Yellow 200 MA in Red Previous AMZN analysis: -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by Deftsuo
Don't be fooled by a dead-cat bounce. More downside possible.APPL got a nice dead-cat bounce off of a prior support zone we saw it hold back in September of 2017, and in February of 2018, and it was fairly close to the 200 weekly moving average. However, we also saw come clear bearish divergence form over the last few months/week (shown by the light-blue lines on the price action and on the RSI); as for the price made an eventual higher-high, but the RSI made a lower-high, indicating the trend (upwards at the time) was weakening, and we saw the price drop dramatically there after. I still think a lot of these stocks are over-valued, and have plenty of room to fall. Ignore the noise from the main stream media and the big-time investment firms that tell you these prices are "deals, steals, bargains, good buys" and whatever other phrases they enjoy throwing at you in a bid to get you to buy something. I will change my stance if we get above (and hold as new support) several key moving averages. If we cannot, then I'm watching for a break below the 200 weekly moving average, and a break below the support zone around 130-135. Overall, I continue to remain bearish. Moving average guide (All in the weekly time-frame for this chart): 10 MA in Orange 20 MA in Pink 50 MA in Green 100 MA in Yellow 200 MA in Red -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Deftsuo
Facebook broke the 200 weekly MA. More pain to come. Facebook has broken its 200 weekly moving average and could be setup for more downside. Facebook has a small support zone around 115, but I do not think it will hold. I think we could see Facebook come down to the 30-70 dollar range here as this down-trend develops. There really isn't much historical support until then if 115 is broken. What to watch for: -Break of the 115 support zone. -If that occurs, I'll be watching 70, 55, and 30 as possible places for the price to come down to. -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
NASDAQ:METAShort
by Deftsuo
Bitcoin: Bears Are Strong But On Look Out For This Key Reversal?BTCUSD update: With the short term bearish trend line still intact, this market is poised to test lower prices. The next major support area is 3K and until the weakness is absorbed, it is within reason to go even lower. While we maintain our inventory, we continue to avoid any new trades. Momentum continues until evidence appears that proves otherwise. That is the foundation of our decision making process. And there is no evidence in terms of price structure to provide a convincing argument for longs, at least over the near term. Lower highs often lead to lower lows and the next 3K psychological support is still in play. This type of structure is particularly vulnerable to negative news or any other type of dramatic nonsense coming from this space. Which means an over reaction can take price below 3K quickly. So what evidence would point to a more sustainable price recovery? A more obvious sign would be a break of the bearish trend line, followed by a higher low. A less obvious sign would be a failed low which involves price testing the 3250 low and reversing sharply. This would be a double bottom near a major support level. This is where we would consider an aggressive swing trade long, otherwise, there is nothing to do here but watch. If this were any other market, I would be looking for swing trade shorts, but we do not short these markets. Waiting it out is not what most people want to hear, because most people want action. We follow a code of best practices because we are in this for the long run, not for "action". Action is what attracts gamblers, and often they are the ones who provide liquidity for those who can exercise patience. A break of the 3350 level, and the 3250 low will most likely be tested. In summary, Bitcoin and the entire alt space has been beaten up and is not showing any signs of a worthwhile recovery just yet. That doesn't mean it won't change. The key is to let the change happen first. Cheap prices are tempting, but there is still plenty of room for them to get cheaper. A lot of credibility in this space has been compromised thanks to unnecessary mining conflicts, ICO scams and other negative events, but that is the nature of the environment now. All it takes is a spark of positive news like the approval of a Bitcoin ETF and renewed optimism can return just as quickly as it left. Timing markets is all about "IFs" and being prepared for change. Your time is better spent learning how to be flexible, learning how to interpret price action and most importantly learning how to take risks in a structured and responsible way. Chasing profits, seeking precision, or reacting instead of anticipating only keep you on the path to consistent losing. They say trading is 80% psychology and it is true. Performance starts with a mindset, not a chart. What are your best practices?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
Bitcoin: Bottom Is In? These 2 Signs Can Offer Proof.BTCUSD update: Since the dovish FOMC meeting, this market has gone from a low of 3446 to a high of 4415. Which serves as just another example of how sentiment drives price on the short term. Although a 12% move off the low is encouraging, this market has not demonstrated any real change in the momentum on the bigger picture. Yet. The bearish trend line that has recently been established is still in play. As long as this is the case, price still has a good chance of breaking the next support around the 3600 area. IF that happens, 3K will still be a real possibility. Price structure determines our short term outlook, nothing else. And price structure changes. In order to consider any new trades, price needs to do 2 things: 1) Build a bullish structure, 2) Take out the 4650 area. That is what our plan dictates, and it has saved us a ton of money in terms of potential losses as this market sold off. We make it a point to separate our strategies and do not mix long term positions with short term trading. This is why we still carry inventory and have no intention of selling it, especially at the lows. Not using any leverage has been one of the key factors in managing our longer term risk and prevented any margin liquidations that so many had to deal with. Our plan has not changed since this market took out the 4800 support and it is: step aside. It is simple and effective. Reacting, or trying to trade both sides of this market is just not worth the risks. Just ask all those who insisted on staying short below 4K. We do not short these markets, and we even warned those who wanted to about the higher risk they faced. We are open to the possibility of aggressive swing trade longs, but only AFTER price proves itself. Pulling back and forming a higher low is a scenario that is in line with our bullish price structure requirement. Unlike the droves of chart gurus who claw for your attention (just look at all the charts in the comment section), we do not pretend to know the future. We do not make predictions and instead adjust as the market changes. We follow our rules, evaluate price patterns and always manage risk. All the behaviors that do not appeal to the herd. In summary, Bitcoin is not yet showing signs of continuing strength. This can change in the next couple of weeks, BUT until it proves itself there is NOTHING to do here. The bottom may be in, but we will not know until structure provides the evidence. Remember, a top or bottom is not an event, it is a process. Buying low is always a better choice than buying a high, BUT you must always consider: what IF it goes lower? 3450 may be the bottom, but there is NO precision in this game. What if 2K is the bottom? It's not about being right or wrong, it is about how much RISK you can handle. You will get further in this game if you focus on risk management and best practices rather than focusing on lines on a chart, or worse the rewards. Ever notice? The less experienced (especially the marketers) are always pushing: "I'm right", "How much I made", "The RSI", or posting 22 updates in less than 22 hours. If you want to learn how to put your money to work, start by asking yourself one question: "What if I'm wrong?". It all begins there.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
47
BTCUSD: 4K Break Points To 3K Support?BTCUSD update: Price breaks 4K which is in line with recently developed structure. Since the 4800 break, we have been staying away from this market as far as any new positions. We have rules and a plan which we are not going to deviate from in reaction to recent price movement. The 4800 area was a major support level that we had been writing about for months. Once that was taken out, Bitcoin has gone on our avoid list. Along with the majority of the alt coins. This means we hold what we have and wait this out. We were very careful when we were accumulating our inventory and we can afford to take the pain. Although we are short term bearish (because we listen to market structure), we are not long term bearish. We got rid of the weakest alts in our portfolio weeks ago, and only hold the most promising. Based on the technical structure at the moment, Bitcoin is still poised to go lower. The 3K area is actually where the next relevant support is located. Will it go there? We don't make predictions, we follow price action. It is possible, but it is also possible that price finds support sooner. The key is to let price prove itself. For us that means bearish trend lines need to be taken out. Until that happens, we will continue to play a strong defense and steer clear of this mess. Thanks to best practices, we stayed away from most alts while Bitcoin was consolidating. As Bitcoin goes lower, the alts will suffer and this was a scenario we did not want to be a part of. As many are now jumping on the short side, we are not about to start. Leverage is something we have been against using in these markets from the beginning and do not intend to start using it now. Our plan is simple, we wait until conditions become more favorable, and only then will we be open to accumulating more. Many people treat these markets like the more traditional stocks or forex. We have always recognized that these markets carry much greater risks partly because of their lack of regulation. This makes them very vulnerable to the games that large players can play. And shaking out the weak in order to buy at the best prices is something they have done for decades in other markets. Many of the techniques that they used are now illegal in traditional markets, but NOT in this market. Collusion, sharing inside information, and forcing margin liquidations are perfectly legal here. That is why we believe this is just one massive shake out over the long run. In summary, the market has revealed its hand. It chose the break the long consolidation it was in and is now in search of a new level. When a trend unfolds, many will come out and make tons of predictions, but they do not know any more than anyone else. Just like all the "experts" who were calling for 30K during the bull market. The key to maneuvering any market successfully is not making predictions, but instead adjusting as the market reveals new information. The market is always right and as a trader or investor, it is our responsibility to listen to it, especially when it changes. Our adjustment is simple: avoid. We are not driven by greed or reacting to emotions and not looking to get short in any way. And next to listening, there comes risk control. We were all about going long above 6K, but we were always cognizant of the possibility that we could be wrong. We wrote it regularly, "anything can happen". Following best practices allowed us to factor the possibility of facing such an adverse environment as we were accumulating inventory. And because of that we can hold. If Bitcoin is going provide value in the future, it will eventually find a support, build a base and gradually develop a much more favorable environment for longs. Now it is just a matter of waiting for the process to play out. There is no need to keep buying into something that has proven weakness. There will be plenty of opportunities to buy when the evidence of broader strength returns.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32