Get started

Bearishmomentum

BTCUSD: Shallow Retrace Hints At Break Out To 7500.BTCUSD update: Price is hesitating just under the bearish trend line that has been established since early August. While at the same time, the bullish trend line is also still intact. Which way is it more likely to go? In my recent Bitcoin article on S.C., I explained the increasing risk of retrace as price pushed into the 7Ks. There is no reason to buy into a high, but there are occasional exceptions. The previous candle has closed as a pin bar. By doing this, price managed to maintain the bullish trend line. This is a sign of strength and a likely continuation pattern similar to an inside bar. When a market sells off it usually happens fast. The fact that price is holding up certainly supports the bullish argument. It may also be the result of the coming holiday in the U.S. which often unfolds with lighter volume across all major markets. In summary, if the current structure holds, this market is poised to break higher. The trade would certainly be an aggressive one, and those details will be shared with our members. We are not one to buy highs, but shallow pullbacks are an attempt to retrace. If the market can't retrace, it is saying that the bulls still maintain control. The 7500 area is a reasonable expectation if a continuation break out occurs. A close below the bullish trend line will negate this scenario. Begin with the idea and then let the market choose to validate it or not.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
15
BTCUSD: Bearish Formation Poised To Revisit 6K?BTCUSD update: Price is having a tough time pushing through the 6800 level which can be interpreted as a sign of weakness. This market has been the most resilient and if it retraces it will likely take many of the alts below their support levels. At S.C. we had a long position in BCH expecting it to outperform BTC during the recent squeeze attempt. Instead of outperforming it clearly demonstrated signs of relative weakness no different than ETH or LTC. So we chose to raise the stop and reduce the risk by more than 75%. The trade stopped out, but the loss was minimal. Even though it produced a negative outcome, the trade was good because we cut the risk while still giving the market a chance. What people do not understand is we let the market dictate how to manage positions, not our feelings or opinions. With BTC potentially forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern, we will simply sit on the sidelines and wait for a more favorable setup. If the recently established bullish trend line is compromised, price can retest the low 6Ks. If price closes below the 5800 level, that will activate the head and shoulders pattern. Since we only trade the long side of this market, there is nothing for us to do but watch. The bullish argument is becoming less compelling, but IF the trend line holds, or price prints a reversal pattern around the 6200 area, that can present a possibility for a swing trade. All we can do is wait and see. In summary, the head and shoulders pattern is generally a bearish sign BUT its general location is not a bearish area. This does remove some of the relevance of the pattern. We also remind our followers at S.C., that identifying good trades is not just about candlesticks and chart patterns but also about abstract considerations like the probability of the general location. This is something we strongly consider which helped us capture a 10% profit in 6 days off of the recent low. If the market retraces, we will continue to watch the price action around the 6K psychological support along with the levels of short interest. You don't make opportunities in a financial market, instead you wait for them to materialize. If you have a sound plan and a reasonable set of criteria, eventually the market will align itself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
31
ETHUSD: Relative Weakness Vulnerability Means More Waiting.ETHUSD Update: New buy trigger appears while Bitcoin steam rolls toward its next high. Price is now challenging its steeper bearish trend line which is a positive. BTC is doing its part which is what we have been anticipating, while the concern is alts like ETH are still underperforming. This relationship can be interpreted as a sign of relative weakness which makes these particular coins very vulnerable to a retrace in BTC. At S.C., we have been sharing ideas with our members about how we have put coins like ETH on standby until they can prove themselves in terms of price structure. This is a defensive measure that helps us maintain our objective of deploying capital toward the prospects that offer the greatest probability of a favorable outcome. We would rather give up the better prices in exchange for better probability. This is where most who are new to this arena or investing in general get it wrong. Market timing is more about organization than anything else, not big profits. Following a simple set of well defined rules like avoiding relatively weak markets are what protect our portfolios from getting too heavy into a market that has greater potential to go lower. Having a focus on profits, which is instinctive, is the first mistake. This is what leads to impulsive behavior and the gambling mentality. One of the most common errors I see are forced trades along with mismatched expectations. This would be when you are putting on trades every day (day trading) and expecting swing trade profit targets every time. If the broader moves are what you prefer, then high quality setups are going to be much less frequent compared to day trades. 2 - 3 high probability swing trade setups are considered a busy WEEK. In summary, in order for us to start putting on swing trades or accumulating more inventory, ETH needs to close much higher. We share these precise details with our followers. We also emphasize the role and value of patience when it comes to waiting for a market to comply with criteria. Professionals define a good trade by how well it adhered to the criteria that triggered it, not by how much profit it generated. A negative trade for all the right reasons is a good trade, while a positive trade for all the wrong reasons is no better than a loss. The wrong reasons will erode your account over the long run. Consistency comes from structure and having a well defined plan. The objective is to isolate favorable conditions in light of the relative risk. And these conditions are presented by the market, not made up or imposed by "gut feel" or ego. They are also infrequent, which means more time will be spent watching and evaluating than actual trading. Trading should be equated with waiting, which is far from exciting or glamorous. Marketers capitalize on the immediate gratification tendency of the herd by putting out information that caters to their need for action. And most new to this business who are still controlled by greed and fear do not have enough experience to see through their agenda. If putting capital to work efficiently is your goal, the focus should be developing a perspective and a simple plan to serve as your guide. The best place to begin is by learning to interpret a clean chart without any outside opinions or bias.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
12
ETHUSD: New Low? Don't Overlook One Important Clue.ETHUSD update: Bearish momentum revisits the 270s and points to the possibility of a new low. When viewed through the lens of BTC, the not so obvious argument for a failed low shines through. This conflict offers clues about the hidden strength of this market and in our opinion not a good idea to short. I published an article earlier on S.C. that goes into more detail on the structural conflict between the two markets. This reason alone is enough for us to avoid Ethereum and Litecoin until they can prove the return of more stable price action. While many are focused on oscillators and trend following, they lose sight of the fact that BTC rules these markets. And even though it looks unattractive at the moment, it is still not making new lows. All while short interest is pushing highs. If BTC holds and establishes a higher low, ETH is likely to follow. That means shorting into this low is a likely bear trap. This is why it is important to always look beyond the obvious when it comes to chart analysis. At S.C., we are carrying inventory and a swing trade long in BTC. If there is a recovery, it will begin there first, especially since it has the most attractive structure and lower risk compared to the alts. In summary, the crowd chases profits which is usually the path to more losses. High probability opportunities are infrequent and require a great deal of patience to recognize. If the crowd is impulsive and impatient, then being the opposite is more likely to prove fruitful. Patience is the first step toward anticipating or letting the market come to you. Everyone is quick to react to the obvious which in this market is to go short. Meanwhile their restlessness prevents them from seeing a subtle but important sign which is that Bitcoin is not pushing lows. And where ever Bitcoin goes, Ethereum is likely to follow along. Ethereum may not be in the best position for a long, but it is also in an unattractive location for a short. Whenever this kind of conflict ensues, the best choice is the stay on the sidelines and let the market work it out. True opportunity is lost when your account is wiped out from forced trades, not waiting for the most favorable setups.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
BTCUSD: The Face Of A Bear But Heart Of A Bull.BTCUSD update: It appears price action cannot make up its mind upon first glance. A break out attempt around the 6600 level fizzles out as short interest climbs even further. On the surface this may "feel" bearish, but the internals are still pointing to higher prices. At S.C., we focus on probabilities, not feelings. Feedback from a cross section of our members suggests that the general consensus expects price to collapse once again. When you compare this to the fact that short interest is increasing while price is not pushing lows, it is more of an indication of a market brimming with hidden strength. Increasing short interest means bears are continuing to pile into the obvious trade. And this makes perfect sense when price is pushing new lows, but the 5750 low established in June is still intact. If shorts are selling more, and price is not making progress, what do you think that means? Clearly there is more buying than selling, but it is not obvious yet. In other words, this structure is most likely a bear trap. If price continues to hold above 6K, this bear population will be naturally forced into buying. When this happens, it often leads to a vertical candle that results from the numerous margin liquidations that follow. At S.C., we acknowledge the formations and patterns that are visible, but we also consider what is not visible. And that is the probability of the general location. Considering both perspectives is what builds context and helps to align decision making with market intent, not our ego or opinions. What if we are wrong? That is a possibility and why we protect positions and our portfolios with defensive measures like smart position sizing and stop orders. Price can reasonably retest the 6K level, but we are willing to risk the profit that we have in our recent swing trade in favor of the broader probability. In summary, a chart is a visual representation of order flow. And order flow is naturally governed by the irrational forces of greed and fear. The high element of randomness makes taking chart analysis at face value an even tougher game to play. This is why it is so important to always consider what the chart is saying, and what it is not. In the case of Bitcoin, it is showing bearish information within the midst of a bullish location. Bearish information is most useful at resistance levels or highs, not lows. And that is the context we use to weight our analysis appropriately. Our objective is to bet on probabilities which is often on the opposite side of the herd mentality. Which side do you choose?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
43
ETHUSD: Close Below 300 Points To 250 Support.ETHUSD update: This market has performed the weakest during the recent bout of bearish order flow. The resulting structure points to a higher chance of lower prices. How low? A close below 300 increases the likelihood of testing the 250 area. Keep in mind, BTC is holding up so far. At S.C., we have been monitoring it carefully and have identified a new swing trade long possibility in another alt as a result. We aim to capitalize on the short squeeze if the market presents the opportunity. Andrew published an insightful article recently that presented a comparison of the alts that are on our inventory radar. ETH was clearly an under performer relative to its peers and this affects our decision making over the short term. IF BTC retests 6K or lower, this market is poised to get hammered hard. Current structure points to further weakness which could compromise the 300 psychological support. The 300 level carries a lot of weight for a number of technical reasons. One reason is it's the lower boundary of the largest magnitude .618 support zone (not on chart for simplicity). This equates to the 4980 level on BTC. If price decisively closes below this level, 250 becomes a distinct possibility. The relevance of the 250 area dates back to 2017 when a broad consolidation developed around there. This would be the next area to anticipate stability if 300 is cleared. In summary, when positioning for a bounce, the markets to be in are the ones that got beat up the least. ETH certainly does not fit that criteria. Since we do not short, there is nothing to do but avoid until strength returns. We remain long term bullish on BTC and plan to keep ETH on the radar. We still believe in the merit behind this coin but when the technicals say avoid, we have no problem putting our opinions aside. We will simply hold our inventory and wait for a more favorable environment. If BTC is going to recover, we want to be in the coins that have the greatest potential. We always talk about how opportunity lurks around the ugliest prices, but there does come a point where your resources are better utilized in markets that are much less ugly. When this market stops under performing, we will have no problem continuing our operations. We respect the market and will let it tell us when the time is right.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
BTCUSD: How Low Can It Go?BTCUSD update: Price continues back to the 6K psychological support. As long as price stays above 5750, the bullish impulse structure is still intact. We will continue to evaluate price action around the major support area for stability and a reversal. Earlier today on S.C., we texted a swing trade long idea to our members. Thanks to our simple filtering technique, the trade never triggered. This alone prevented a 300 point loss. I bring this up because most inexperienced traders and investors do not realize that consistent performance over time includes a strong defense. This means not only cutting losses short, but avoiding would be losses all together. Anyone can call a profitable trade, but if you can't keep the profit, then what's the point? The only one benefiting is your broker or exchange. Everyone and their cousin is jumping onboard the bear train. The record high short interest alone is a telling sign. We look for these signs of extreme sentiment because this is where long term opportunity is often found. At S.C., we evaluate probabilities first. Keep in mind price is still within a large magnitude .618 support zone that reaches as low as 4983. This means price can test below 5750 and still offer attractive longer term opportunities. Our plan is to continue to accumulate inventory, but with extreme care. Since we have a small position from the mid 7Ks, there is no need to aggressively buy at the moment. Instead we will wait until more stringent criteria is met before making another purchase. Why not get short? Besides not following the herd, we have a strict policy to avoid shorting these markets. The number one reason is leverage. To help minimize risk, we do not use leverage in these markets. Beyond risk of an adverse move, there are risks that most traders do not consider like regulatory risk. Do not forget, the exchanges that facilitate the order flow in these markets regulate themselves. This means they can make up their own rules at their convenience. Perfect example is the OKex's "claw back". This is where the shorts were responsible for paying back the exchanges extremely irresponsible margin liquidation debt. There's nothing worse than being penalized for taking the right side, especially when its to cover someone else's mistake. In summary, we will continue to monitor the extreme sentiment and look to capitalize on the turn when the signs line up. We have no problem waiting, or if the market goes lower. If price manages to go below 5K, we will simply hold off from further accumulation, but we won't sell. We don't have to, because our size is well with the proportions of our portfolio's risk profile. Price being in the middle of the largest support zone points to the higher probability of a reversal. And that is the side that we will prepare for, not react to the obvious. The crowd is usually wrong at tops and bottoms.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
ETHUSD: 300 Possible, But Reversal More Probable.ETHUSD update: Bearish price action leads to break of major support area. Now that key levels like 400 and 374 have been cleared, the broader strength of this market is thrust into question. And the answers can be found when you look back in time. The 300 area, which dates back to November of 2017 was a major break out for tihs market. There is a tendency for old resistance to become new support and if the inversion holds true, 300 area is a possibility to consider. The fact that price broke 374 places it into a very wide reversal zone that has a boundary in the 280s (not on chart for simplicity). This means next 100 points below offer increased potential for a broader reversal. At S.C., we had long swing trades in this market and in LTC which were stopped out. The stop at 386 saved us from an additional 40 points of pain. We still hold inventory in BTC because as ugly as this sell off is, the broader structure is not bearish yet. This entire space is contingent on BTC recovering. And as bearish as the herd is, they are not paying attention to the probability of the location. As long as the low 6Ks or even 5750 holds, the broad bullish impulse structure is still intact. The potential for a bottom to materialize in this area is high. At S.C., we do not make "predictions" like many of the other "experts". Instead we evaluate probabilities, manage risk and adjust to new information. Following the herd is something we do not participate in. Probabilities tell us that the current lows are an accumulation opportunity across the board. Our risk management rules tell us to wait. We intend to buy inventory and take on another swing trade long when the structure lines up. In summary, price can remain weak on the short term, but it is nothing more than an ugly shake out. Just like 18.5K on BTC had the world betting on 30K, these depressed prices are the polar opposite. Even if we could short here, we wouldn't even think of it. It is funny how no one is afraid to buy at 1250, while no one is afraid to sell at 350? History has proven the crowd is usually wrong at extremes and this situation is no exception.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
22
BTCUSD: Bullish Retrace Likely Off Of Key Support.BTCUSD update: Ugly price action has probed the 6850 area only to find some support so far. There are numerous technical reasons for this support to hold but I will cover two. What makes this formation more challenging to buy is the nature of the wave count. The current bearish price structure appears to be Wave C of a corrective formation. The formation can be considered a Wave 2 correction since price has decisively taken out the 7450 level. Wave 2s can correct 100% of Wave 1 and the broader impulse can still be intact. Typically Wave 2s retrace back to a deeper support like the .618 area which happens to be where this market is at the moment (not on chart for sake of simplicity). This support along with the bullish trend line just below are just two structural arguments for an increased chance of reversal. Price action may be tricky, but it's more about the probability of the location than about single candle formations. I published an article earlier on S.C. that covers more detail as far as the current area in play. We bought more inventory around the mid 7Ks along with some swing trades in the alts. We are simply letting probability play out. If we are wrong, we get stopped out. In summary, as ugly as price continues to look, the location remains very attractive. As long as the broader structure presents a formation of strength, buying into weakness aligns with best practices. The key is to look forward and let probability do its job. If the market continues to sell off, we have our risks defined so we know where we stand either way. As I wrote in my report earlier, the market changes fast, but is always right. Our job is to determine probabilities, define risk and adjust to new information. That is the essence speculating in any financial market. Getting wrapped up in drama, oscillators, or news events are the signature of the herd mentality. One of the first steps to separating yourself from the herd and recognizing the market's intent is to minimize these ineffective behaviors.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
51
ETHUSD: Double Bottom Points To Squeeze. Can BTC Lead The Way?ETHUSD update: As BTC flirts with the low 6900 area, this market is being pulled along for the ride. Even in the face of significant BTC selling, this market is showing signs of resilience around the 400 psychological support level. Along with that, the likelihood of a double bottom formation is high. Earlier I published an article on S.C. and mentioned some possible conspiracy theories for BTC. As ugly as it looks, the bigger picture still presents a configuration of strength. If it recovers off the current lows over the next day or two, ETH is in a position to squeeze significantly. Double bottom formations are common reversal patterns. What makes this possible double bottom special for ETH is the location. Not only is 400 an important level, but the low 390s are also. The key is waiting for the right candle to appear. At the moment there is nothing. If price manages to mount a rally off this area, it will establish a broad range bound price structure from 400 to 515. This context helps to further shape our decision making in terms of managing our active swing trade going forward. Keep in mind price can actually go slightly lower than 400 and still be considered a double bottom. These type of fake outs often lure in a ton of shorts that actually force the price higher faster when they realize they are caught on the wrong side. If price falls apart, which is always a possibility, then the next support in question will be the 358 area. Even if price probes the 390s or 380s, as long as it does not break 358, the broader structure is pointing to strength in the form of a higher low. In summary, do not get sucked into "why" the market is selling off. All that matters is that it is. More importantly, the focus should be on how new price structures and levels shape the probabilities moving forward. The current location and formation point to an increased probability of a bullish reversal. This is the premise behind our trade and it is just a matter of letting the market play itself out. Like I titled my S.C. article, opportunity lurks around the ugliest prices.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Extreme Price Zone Offers Chance To Buy.ETHUSD update: A healthy retrace has taken this market back to the low 430's. We managed to avoid any premature entries during the period of random price action recently. And this pull back was what we were waiting for. Extreme prices are where probability becomes favorable. As I wrote in my previous S.C. reports, consolidations are areas where randomness is the greatest. Fake outs are commonplace and unless the market can offer a favorable condition, risk could not be justified. No oscillator will help you filter out this type of situation, only best practices. 423 happens to be a reversal zone boundary that has been in place since June. If price cannot get itself together over the next few hours, it is likely to retest this level. Like I wrote in a recent report, first comes the location, next comes the setup. The whole purpose of a setup is to filter out low probability trades. A pin bar is an example of a setup, but as you can see, two candles ago price could not take out the high of that pin bar which negated the long signal. Once a qualifying setup appears, we intend to share a swing trade idea with our followers at S.C. It may be in this market, or one of the others. The great thing about these extreme prices is they also offer an opportunity to accumulate longer term inventory. While looking for swing trades, we are also allocating a portion of our capital to buying small portions of the highest potential coins. Buying into extreme weakness is the best time to employ such a strategy, but it must be done with careful planning. The details of which coins and how much will be shared with our members. Nothing has changed in terms of the structure on the bigger picture. This retrace is nothing more than impatient traders who bought prematurely getting shaken out. We did not predict this move, but we were prepared thanks to following best practices. In summary, patience and not caring about missing a move is how you align yourself with the next move. The market will eventually meet your criteria if you give it a chance. Giving it a chance means letting it rally without you. Missing moves never shrinks your account, but forced trades do. As you can see, the many false starts and fake outs have lead to a more dramatic sell off and this is where the real opportunity is. Best practices are not some complex set of rules. They are based on recognizing the traits of the herd mentality, and taking the proper steps to capitalize on it. The first step is to think against the crowd. This means unplugging yourself from the hype that they consume, and developing a point of view that is based on market structure. This is how you get into the habit of preparing, while they continue to react.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
ETHUSD: Formations Point To 490s. Signal Is Key.ETHUSD update: Lack of follow through takes this market back to the low 450s. This comes after a buy trigger appeared on Saturday at 464. More interesting is the fact that BTC pushed higher while the majority of the alts remained weak. What happened to "follow the leader"? At S.C., we were able to save our followers from this lack of momentum that began with the trigger on Saturday. Instead of buying like the herd, we called for a limit order way under the market. And more importantly we sent an instruction to cancel that order today by noon. People who followed were able to avoid the pull back into the 440s and are now patiently waiting for the next opportunity. Price is probing the 455 to 439 support zone. This is our next area of focus and IF the right signal appears, we will share our next swing trade long idea. Do not bang your head against the wall trying to figure out why the alts are not following the leader. When it comes to short term market timing, it really doesn't matter why. Relationships between markets change constantly, and that is all you really need to know. As we say at S.C., it works until it doesn't. Patterns, levels and formations offer a much better clue as to what is likely to happen next. Not abstract intermarket relationships or fundamental logic. At S.C., we are anticipating a bullish retrace over the next 8 days. There is no guarantee that it will unfold this way, but if the right signs show up, we are prepared to buy. In summary, do not always measure a trade call by its profit target. If a strategy or method can also help prevent losses, that is just as good as a win. Anyone can call trades, but not everyone can call for a good market defense. Location plays an important role when evaluating the probabilities of a particular idea or outcome. And the location of price in this market certainly features some compelling formations that make for an attractive long. It is just a matter of the right signal and having the patience to wait for it.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
5
ETHUSD: 450 Area Potential For Next Buy.ETHUSD update: Following the BTC surge, this market has reversed out of the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone which should not be a surprise. Now that a bullish trend line has also been established, it is more reasonable to expect supports to hold as this market continues. The 455 to 439 minor support (.618 of recent bullish swing) is the next area that we are eyeing for reversal patterns. Based on the current rate of momentum, the next low is likely to be established over the next couple of days. If this support is cleared, the low 400's is the next area to anticipate a bullish reversal. It all depends on how BTC unfolds. Sentiment dominates short term price action and at S.C. we are always on the lookout for extremes across a variety of magnitudes. Extreme sentiment is where the highest probability setups appear. In summary, buying pull backs can be tricky. Now that bullish price action is gaining a grip on these markets, it is within reason to expect more follow through. The next leg up has potential to test the 515 swing high at least. That is the what we will be using as a point of reference for profit targets. The best thing you can do is learn to think in probabilities. Certain methodologies and tools help you do this better than others. Earlier on S.C. I wrote an article about Elliott Wave and shared an updated count on BTC. When used properly, it serves as a valuable guide to compare to price action as it unfolds. Check it out because it offers some insight into the broader expectations of this market as well.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
$LTC Want to go $90 in Next 15 days.. here is why Most People did not believe it would happen, and still don't. I have a prediction that I have all been hit and I have got a chance to get my goal. i bought ltc at $ 7 dollar and sell my $ltc at 310 dollars. since the price is downtrend due to btc bearish. While 99% of Trading View authors go with the Wind, changing their idea everyday, Moving Water stays on track, and now, Big Fall, first predicted on May 6, is ongoing. LTC next target is hitting at 90-100 in th chart, hope it will hit like my previous prediction in my old trading view channel. Follow Us here and get next move of big coins. Also the next move of ur coin on your demand. Direct message (DM) to me for the coin.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by cryptobitt
BTCUSD: Higher Low Can Lead To Inverted Head & Shoulders.BTCUSD update: Price has retraced to the 6300 area which is serves as a minor support. As I wrote in today's S.C. report, this market is in position to establish an inverted head and shoulders pattern which is a long term bullish sign. Since there are no specific triggers to go long, we are still waiting see if price offers a buying opportunity around the 6K area. This is a go and stop market, one that does not treat reactionary traders nicely. Understanding the type of environment and where to anticipate movements based on probability is key. This is why we did not buy the consolidation break out going into the resistance zone. The risk of retrace was high and the situation did not fit the criteria of our swing trade plan.The question is where is the best place to get long since the retrace is in progress? 6167 to 5999 is the minor .618 support zone relative to the recent bullish swing. This would be a very convenient and high probability location for a reversal candle to appear. The other level is the 5669 reversal zone boundary which would be the extreme price scenario. This is when the market usually looks the ugliest and the weak hands are shaken. In summary, if this market establishes a broader higher low formation around the current price, it could lead to a test of the 7120 reversal zone. As I wrote in my detailed S.C. report, this level serves as a reasonable point of reference for short term profit targets. The broader formation is in line with our high probability location premise that we have been writing about since May. If it follows through, price can very well be on its way back to the 7381 resistance and beyond. At S.C. we prepare and wait for the market to offer opportunities that fit within the scope of our risk profile. These opportunities are not isolated to one strategy, and is the reason why we accumulate inventory as well as take shorter term swing trades. Many less experienced traders have a tough time in these markets because they rely on tools or information that focus on irrelevant price activity. Projected support and resistance, psychological numbers and chart patterns can provide a lot of value in a noisy environment where oscillators are much less effective. Either way, prepare for scenarios rather than "predict" them. At least this way you put yourself in a position to let the market come to you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Sell Trigger Can Lead To Test Of 440 Support.ETHUSD update: 482 pin bar low has been taken out which is a sell trigger according to our perspective at S.C. The lower high off the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone is the reason why we were not interested in any swing trade longs. The coming retrace will serve as an important test of the recent strength that has appeared in these markets. Price is near the newly established bullish trend line after breaking 482. If price continues to push lower, the next level we will be watching for is the 440 area. This is a minor bullish reversal zone boundary (not on chart for sake of simplicity). IF a bullish pin bar appears around the 440 level or around 423, we will be looking for a swing trade long trigger. A sell signal like the one that just appeared is good for locking in some profit if you managed to buy at lower prices. Since we do not short these markets, shorting is not a possibility within the scope of our strategies. We are also holding inventory in BTC and other coins and will not sell any during the next retrace. The long term probability that these markets climb out of these lows is just beginning. With the amount of long term potential baked into these markets, there is no reason to lighten up on our positions at these levels, even in the face of a sell trigger. In summary, as I wrote earlier in my S.C. report, it is important to have a detailed process the defines every part of your decision making. We separate our strategies by time frame and define our decision making criteria from there. That type of organization is what serves as the most effective guide during conflicting signals such as a sell trigger within a slow grind recovery. At S.C., we look at these markets through the lense of a position trader and swing trader simultaneously. If this market retraces back to extrme prices like the 390s, we will be looking to accumulate more. If price instead forms a broader higher low, we will be looking for the swing trade long. Either way, we have a predetermined plan for what the market decides, not what we "predict" it will do. Check S.C. for trade ideas because that is where we share them with our followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
6
ETHUSD: Next Test Of Support In The 430s?ETHUSD update: Price is hesitating just under the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone after taking out the bearish trend line. This is a tricky situation because at first glance, this market appears to be forming a lower high and following the recent "trend". What is not visible is the probability of the location of BTC which we have been reiterating is bullish and ultimately determines where all the coins go. No matter how we analyze and examine this market, it is going to do what BTC decides to do. The only reason why I take the time to evaluate the levels and formations is because it is a way to quantify risk specifically for this market. Since the bearish trend line has been taken out across all the major coins, at S.C., we are anticipating the next retrace to present a higher low. For this market, that means looking for a reversal pattern somewhere in the 430's. If price falls through, then 392 is the reversal zone boundary to watch for bullish candle formations. Again this movement all depends on the sentiment and order flow of BTC. In summary, the higher low that we are waiting for may not happen the way we anticipate. Especially in this holiday market, price may consolidate and squeeze a little higher unexpectedly. At S.C. we are only interested in probabilities, especially on a broader magnitude. When these markets begin to align with our expectations, the next step is to refine the risk. One way we do that is using specific entry criteria that either the market will meet, or it will not. This is an imperfect process that does not catch every opportunity, but it serves a much more important purpose. It filters out a high frequency of trades with negative outcomes, preserves capital and allows for unemotional binary decision making. The benefits are definitely outweigh the occasional opportunity cost. What is your process?
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
18
ETHUSD: Bearish Trigger Near But Higher Low Likely To Form.ETHUSD update: Inside bar has materialized which sets the stage for the next move in this market. With the bearish structure still intact, an attempt toward the 392 reversal zone boundary is likely. The structure to watch for though is a higher low formation between current prices and 392. This would be the bullish confirmation that a broader movement toward higher prices is in progress. I wrote in my previous reports that the recent short squeeze in these markets could be the beginning of a broader move higher. The general price area of these markets, especially BTC, present reward/risk scenarios that are skewed toward the bullish side. And part of the motivation that can help these markets along can come from a weakening Dollar. I published an article earlier on S.C. that explored this relationship further. At this point, ETH as well as BTC are facing the first bearish obstacle. The mid 440's is where the bearish trend line is located as well as the lower boundary of the broad 544 to 464 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish structure). If price breaks back below the low 440s, it will be generating a sell trigger and can lead to a retest of the 400 low. If 400 is taken out, 392 is the next reversal zone boundary relative to the 404 low. That is the location to look for reversal candles like a bullish pin bar. A close below 392 opens the possibility for the test of 374 which would be a bearish sign to say the least. As S.C., we are anticipating the higher low scenario because of the magnitude of the initial spike on Friday. In summary, if the higher low can materialize, it would justify a swing trade long idea (which will be shared with followers on S.C. if we take it). A push off a higher low can take price back into the low 500's at least. If price action stays tight, it can also form a shallow higher low and squeeze earlier than expected. This would be a higher risk trade because of the general lack of follow through and bearish obstacles still in play. In this scenario, we will wait it out until the trend line is at least cleared before considering such aggressive setups. You will be in the game longer if your biggest mistakes are missing trades, rather than forcing trades. Missing a trade does not drain your capital, while forced trades drain it quickly. Just something to think about.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
BTCUSD: Bearish Momentum But Support Zone Still In Play.BTCUSD update: Price has taken out the previous spinning top low which is a bearish sign. Even though this is the case, the 6K and 5956 reversal zone supports are still in play. If this move fails to make a new low, this market will still be in position for a sharp squeeze. 5755 is the low that needs to be taken out in order to prove bearish momentum is still in full effect. Like I wrote previously, bottoming is a process, and it is far from precise. At S.C., our swing trade was stopped out at 5980. Stops are not pleasant, but they protect accounts from being wiped out by hope mode. That is when you stay in the trade, hoping it comes back. Our inventory strategy does not change in a situation like this and the stop order was only for that specific swing trade. We are watching for a reversal formation to get long again because our strategy takes into account the probabilities of the broader location, and does not place any weight on noise. As long as price stays above 5755, it will likely be setting up for a squeeze. If price reaches 5669 and reverses quickly, that will also count for a failed low formation which will prompt us to look for a bullish reversal trigger as well. The bearish scenario for us is a break and close below the 5669 reversal zone boundary. In that scenario, we will stop looking to buy and just wait for stability to return. In summary, bearish momentum can present tough price action when it is right in the middle of a major support area. At S.C., we consider this random price action until the market provides proof by taking out a major level. These are the kind of areas where patience from experience comes into play. Our bullish outlook has not changed, because nothing says that this market is going to make a new low at this point. The most we can do now is wait for structure to line up for the next swing trade long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
20
BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Means Higher Low More Likely.BTCUSD update: Small retrace back into the 6K psychological support. The 6350 area is now a lower high, but if this market was going to sell hard, the bearish candle should have been larger. Instead, price stops at the major support which hints at a higher low. What I find most interesting is how the negative sentiment is at an extreme (judging by all the bearish talk), while a giant pin bar has printed on a major support level. What many do not realize is, if this is a short term bottom, it is not going to retrace in a straight line. Bottoming is a process and what price appears to be doing at the moment is retesting the 6K psychological support. If it holds again, a higher low formation will be established. Keep in mind price has been in a high probability reversal area for days. The process is slow, but once the structure materializes, it often just needs a spark. A news item of some kind that catches everyone off guard, especially the shorts. Often in a high probability area, order flow expresses itself in ways that indicate some kind of accumulation is taking place. A higher low is one structural example of this process, and is especially relevant in situations like we have on this chart. In summary, I have been writing about looking beyond the charts in a situation like this. The location and recent structures are all pointing to a greater possibility of reversal but it is not obvious which is why the opportunity still exists. Price can even retest the 5669 reversal zone boundary and as long as it holds, this market is more likely to reverse than break below this entire support zone at 4983. Of course anything can happen, and an open mind must always be maintained, but at S.C. we bet on probabilities more than anything else. And there are just too many bullish signs in this situation to ignore. Over on S.C. make sure to follow our swing trade updates for this market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
ETHUSD: 423 Support In Sight, But Short Squeeze Potential High.ETHUSD update: Short term price action is poised to test the 423 reversal zone boundary as an inside bar is now present on this time frame. A break of the 454 low would be the signal for further weakness, but as ugly as this market looks, do not lose sight of the broader location. When things look obvious, that usually means everyone is thinking the same thing. In this case, short. If day trading, that's one thing, but if you are expecting a big win, that is a high risk idea in my opinion. Earlier I wrote an article on S.C. which highlighted the broader structures of this market. The 544 to 464 support zone (.618 of the recent bullish swing relative to the 374 low) and the fact that price is still holding way above the 374 historical low. If this broader structure does not break below 374, it will then be establishing a broader higher low formation. This is a place to accumulate for a bigger picture move higher, not sell. 423 is the next reversal zone boundary that presents a high probability location for bullish patterns. At S.C. we will be watching carefully for the opportunity to add to our inventory. In summary, extreme sentiment is an opportunity that only a contrarian will recognize while the herd is busy following indicators that look backwards. Buying into this type of market goes beyond what you will see on a chart and has more to do with intangible concepts like best practices and crowd psychology. I liken this situation to the polar opposite of where this market was in January in terms of sentiment. The crowd was sure ETH was going to 2K in a matter of weeks and instead it went to 374. Now the market is fluctuating near lows but not making lower lows while volume is shrinking which is a not so obvious bullish sign. In situations like this, you do not want to be part of the crowd. Do not be distracted by hype or attention seekers and do not be limited by irrelevant lines on a chart. If you recognize the long term merit of these coins, then these low prices are an opportunity to invest. It is no different than buying name brand items that go on sale.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
BTCUSD: 6K Psychological Support Attractive For? Buyers.BTCUSD update: Bearish momentum is still asserting itself and price may be entering the 5956 reversal zone boundary. Often movements like this will have the attention seekers out in full force screaming that 3K is coming. Pay attention to the price action and nothing else. In terms of probability, price is now in an area very attractive for buying, not selling. The two most important levels at this moment are the 6K psychological support and the 5956 reversal zone boundary. It is the extreme price scenario that I have been writing about. Since the move is quick, their will be many weak hands dumping their coins at the lows. Great time to be looking to buy. Now keep in mind, I do acknowledge the bearish momentum. Lower highs often lead to lower lows, but what makes this situation unique is the broader location. Price is in a broad support zone. 8171 to 4983 is the .618 of the entire bullish move measured from the 150 lows. I have been writing about this area constantly because it should not be overlooked. Even though it it is very wide, and price can move lower within it, it is still a place to be accumulating. The reversal zone boundaries at 5956 and 5669 are very probable if there is not a quick recovery over the next few hours. At S.C. we are managing long term inventory and not selling it. As I wrote previously we have been watching for an opportunity like this to add, but carefully. We are specifically waiting for some form of reversal either off the 6K support, or within the reversal zone boundaries below. Otherwise we wait to see how much lower this market can go. In summary, what has occurred on a chart is now history. Do not make the typical herd mistake of projecting old information forward and instead consider the probabilities. At 18K, we knew the probability of higher prices was limited, and at these levels, we have the opposite scenario. People can say whatever they want or feel, but we only listen to what the market says as it expresses itself in the charts. Extreme prices often lead to new opportunities and at S.C. we are waiting for these to appear. It starts with the level, and then the formations. If criteria is met, you know where we will share it.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
42
ETHUSD: Lower High Obvious But Don't Ignore Support Zone.ETHUSD update: Price has reached the bearish trend line and is now hesitating. This is not unusual and was expected, that is why we placed our swing trade target at 540. The question is: what is price more likely to do from here? Lower low? Higher low? Or continuation higher? In case you have not been following our swing trade on S.C., it reached its 55 point profit target 2 days ago. The selection of that target was partly based on the bearish trend line. The bearish trend line has been slightly compromised, but not enough to change our short term outlook. Bearish structure still dominates the short term momentum and until that changes, we are going to be very conservative as far as putting on new swing trades and their respective profit targets. The short term bearish argument is as follows. If the 516 inside bar low is taken out, followed by the newly established bullish trend line, then this market is more likely to retest the 458 reversal zone boundary. In an extreme sell off, price can even test the 423 reversal zone boundary. This is the type of price action we wait for when it comes to our inventory building strategies. Again, the selling scenarios are all IFs. Meanwhile, price is still within a broad support zone. The 544 to 464 area is the .618 of a recent bullish structure. As imprecise as this area may be, it cannot be ignored. It does present a chance that a higher low or failed low formation can materialize here. This is what the bears are not seeing and will be seriously caught off guard. Great scenario for people who hold inventory. Another sign that canot be ignored is if the bullish trend line stays intact. A long signal off of the current inside bars can also catch many by surprise. If this happens, it will most likely be lead by a similar signal in BTC. In summary, before any of these markets show real signs of recovery, they need to take out their trend resistance levels. In this case it is the 625 level which is the .382 of the recent bearish structure. Until then, we are likely to see wide range bound markets that do not make any real progress. At S.C., we are not convinced of a completley bearish market because of 2 conditions. The first is the general bullish price location. The second is the premise that this market is forming a broad higher low formation which is also still in line with the Elliott Wave count I posted recently. This type of environment is not without its opportunities, but patience and realistic expectations are key. We let the market tell its story and adjust to it, always evaluating the risks vs. potential rewards. No matter where it goes, we have a plan of action for that scenario. Your own plan will serve you better than anything else. As I have been reminding our followers at S.C., use quiet time to plan ahead and to expand your knowledge. You will be much better prepared for when these markets get busy and the reactionary crowd returns.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8