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Bearish Pennant

DOW Bearish Ascending Triangle Forming Elliott Correction Wave BFellow traders, here is my updated idea on what the Dow might be in for, given unfolding patterns- although small Elliott 'microwaves' have appeared in the past week, they are chaotic and unreliable; instead we have what looks like a truncated flat contracting 'B' wave in A-B-C Elliott Wave correction; An argument can be made for a minor 1-2-3 impulse over past week ending on 7-06 with a small subwave 3; if it really is, then a wave 4 sharp pullback is expected (since wave 2 was so flat, by alternating wave theory any 4th wave will be sharp), possibly back to 24240, but not below wave 1 top, which was quite weak; if we see this, it begs for a 5th wave impulse to retest 245 resistance; estimating possible high of 24680 = Fibo 0.618, unless it also truncates; R2 at 247 will be fiercely tenacious. I favor the following argument instead, and I fear any rise significantly above 24540 is unlikely, given price action, patterns and the miasmic market milieu: A bearish ascending triangle is forming now in the pennant at base of Dow flagpole Wave A, colored in chart: Wave A cut 1400 off index and instead of a robust Wave B to form a right shoulder, as many of us anticipated, we got the pennant- a very bearish formation with strong R at 24500, now tested x4; these are typical continuation patterns for downtrend The closing Dow price on 7-06 of 24457 is just 10 points under the 0.50 Fibo retrace for the ascending wedge from which it broke down- typically we expect break from asc-wedge to react up to 1/2 wedge height; now it has (NB: NOT the A wave drop height--> use the wedge height = 25401 - 23531 = -1870, expect 0.50 rise to 23531 + 935 = 24,466!) When break down from pennant ascending triangle comes, it is expected to typically fall equal to or even greater than the drop down flagpole (=> -1400, expect 23054 or lower is possible) The rapidly closing triangle suggests that breakdown will arrive on or before 07-13 Wave C of an A-B-C Elliott bearish wave cycle is the strongest and most bearish corrective reaction wave, expect panic selling to begin when S1, reaching back to October 2017, is breached; this could easily drive index under 23K - possibly as low as 21800 at S2 reaching to Aug 2017 Wave D reaction to Wave C is shown as pure hypothetical, as a possible 0.618 Fibo rally to 23931 in August (given C pivot at 23054); what actually happens after C remains to be seen Wave E may or not materialize, it can be truncated, but if it does appear, it will bear down hard - a real crash (thank the Donald if it breaks under 20K!). Recovery anticipated as a Elliott 1-2-3-4-5 wave motive impulse to carry index back to the long trendline reaching back to 2010, possibly beginning after mid-term elections in November. Estimates for index shown are purely hypothetical approximations, based on Fibos and possible supports. I do not make predictions, only forecasting possibles based on wave theory, which is sometimes quite erroneous. Feedback and constructive criticism is always welcome! Good luck to all of us.
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
2
Not looking good BTCHi all, getting straight into it, seems like BTC has printed a bear flag, unable to make a sharp recovery from that 1500 drop. Technically, the flag can be be as long as the pole, but given the wedging pattern that is forming, converging at the 6500 level, it seems that a breakout (to either side) may occur any time soon. A key indicator to watch would be the 50MA (in green) as a key overhead resistance that BTC has to contend with. On the MACD, it seems as though the blue line is looking to rollover. A rejection from the 50MA may spell trouble for BTC. Volume has been on the decline, as with the entire cryptocurrency market, so i wouldnt be surprised if the sideways/downward trend persists. Nonetheless, the next lowest level of support is at 6000 (all time low as of February). For those bulls out there, 'be greedy when there's blood on the streets' as per the Baron Rothschild's famous quote. Caution to all those traders out there, may the force be with you!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by gingerbre4d
Twilight of the Bitcoin Market Cycle?Hello friends, It's been a while since my last post; lack of time and an urge to do more research has mainly driven me to take a break from posting ideas on TradingView. I am still in the process of doing more research and study, but I figure posting once in a while couldn't hurt. Since I have become recently very convinced about this, I am outlining a very possible situation with Bitcoin where the trend line we have been on since early October breaks, reaching around a temporary low of $5000. This is examined on the daily chart, since this is one of the best charts to examine trends of this size. I have to first and foremost say that I am not trying to spread fear, I know many people do not like to hear bearish ideas, but technical analysis is ultimately a rational exercise, and I feel that possibilities with very strong signs should be explored. There are a few things to look at, but I first want to talk about the big picture with, long-term support and resistance lines. I think most people can agree that there was a very significant downtrending resistance line that began from the peak of the ATH in late December, to the low of around $6400 (thick red line). After the break from that line, it seems we moved into a sideways trend, bouncing back and forth between an emerging downtrending resistance line (light red) and a support line that we seem to have been respecting since mid-October (light green); at least this appears to be the case with the lows, where the angle's effectiveness appears very strongly. Finally, based on previous bounces, we can establish a support of around $5000-$5300 (I've thus created a small support zone around that range, in dark green), as well as lower supports around $3200 and $2000 (though I do not believe these will be reached, in dark green). Now, onto the analysis - it's no secret that Bitcoin has been squeezing in, ready for a significant move either upwards or downwards. Initially I considered the upwards move to be more likely due to the significant media attention cryptocurrency has been receiving, but after viewing previous market cycles of Bitcoin (check 2013), it seems clear to me that the bearish scenario of closing in on the market cycle is very likely, and should at the very least be prepared for with proper risk management. According to Dow Theory, which is said to have laid the foundations of modern technical analysis, history repeats itself, and this is a situation where we forced to consider this. Should we break from the line, we will likely fall straight down to the $5000-$5000 area, where we will shoot back up and bounce towards around $6700 or so (maybe a little less). From there one, we will likely enter a sideways trend, which we will continue until we see higher highs and higher lows and parabolic movement returns, which could lead to us challenging the all-time high, and hitting $35k-$50k. NOTE: I seem to have reached the max character limit for this section of the idea, so I will continue my text below.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Luiserebii
4
BITCOIN (#BTC): Bearish Flag - downtrend will continueAs was predicted even couple of days before, BTC is going down. It finished forming of reversal "Head and Shoulders" pattern and the price dropped again below $9000. Now, on 12H TF, you can see the well-known figure named "bearish flag" with the prospect of downtrend will continue. Let's take a look at EMA trend lines - possible "Golden Cross" failed (purple rectangle) and price dropped down. Both EMAs become strong resistances, EMA200 at $9050 and EMA50 at $8800. MACD also indicates downward trend, and for now there is nothing to indicate rebound, at least in the coming days. I hope you enjoy my charts, please writte your comments, hit that like button or follow me. Thank you!
Short
by AsBobbyDigital
XRP/USD (XRP/BTC, XRPM18) - Short Term Bear FlagWhats up Guys, Bitcoin dumped yesterday and like ive mentioned before, the alt coin market went with it. In a much shorter time frame than my previous ripple chart, we're looking at a bear pennant formed (symmetrical triangle). Showing all the signs of a dump, but like we already know, we need confirmations before putting our money where our brains are. Set an alert for a bar close below the lower support line of that bear pennant. This is a scalp move guys, so tight stop losses and TAKE PROFITS need to be in place - figure out your Risk Reward levels and set them accordingly. Ten Likes and I will update the chart Intelligent disagreement welcome Good Luck - See you on the trading floors www.bitmex.com #Crypto #BTC #cryptocurrency Twitter @willn12416 -Nix
Short
by WillNixTrading
7
bearish brkdown of bear pennant; below Head & Shoulders necklinethe bear pennant did what probability expected it to do and finally broke down...as it did it has now dipped below the neckline of the head and shoulders. There is a chance on the new 4 our candle that one of our 4 support lines can break its fall and bounce it back above the neckline of the head and shoulder before this 4 hour candle closes to prevent it from triggering but there's also good odds that we may indeed trigger the head and shoulders. A solid support rebound zone would be the 4hr 50ma...potentially even the 4hr 200ma but more likely the 50ma....I shorted but put fractional buy backs at 7777, and 7641. there's still good odds we could dip further than that...however I see that the ascending trendline is now overlapping the eve pink curved trendline to create a double reinforced support so that could be a good rebound zone as well. I'm hoping we dip to the 50ma and then proceed to be bounced back above it before the 4hr close there by avoiding triggering the head and shoulders...if the head and shoudler is triggered and validated we could potentially dip below the eve trendline on a wick before rebounding but that doesnt necessarily invalidate the trendline instead it may just need to have its angle slightly readjusted since its currently a projection angle...changing the angle slightly of the eve could maintain all the previous candle touches it has while being able to encompass wherever the drop takes us as well..anyways for now we are short at least to the 200ma and probably the 50...and possibly even down to the eve trendline as I predicted a few ideas back that we would find our way back down to it after the bull impulse subsided. Best of luck out there this is only what I'm planning to do and not meant to be taken as financial advice...goodluck and thanks for reading.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail
1
BTC potential bullish fakeout before continued down trendBTC Price action on 4hourly has, as in many micro formations, created another bearish pennant. Lower timeframes showing some bullish support and comparing formation with previous bearish pennants of similar size we price could have a bullish fakeout before continued down trend. $5,600k is a price target I have been watching from several angles and given the bullish order block created in the bull run to 19k appears a logical point of support
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Raiju_Zeke
Bulls not ready to let bears call check mate just yet.After three consecutive bearish candles under the bearflag it seemed as if breakout was confirmed and then suddenly a huge bullish slingshot cast the bulls upward again somehow closing back inside the bearflag and keeping it still in play and suddenly the chess match between the bears and bulls goin on inside the bearflag was back on even with the bulls down to nothing but their king left on the board and the bears with most of their pieces in tact. So the ebar flag is still in play but quickly appoaching it's end with either this candle or the very next 4hr candle being the last one in the flag, and the bulls are keeping things alive but currently the white fib line is acting as resistance keeping them in the triangle after a big effort by the bulls to blast up outside of the triangle...which so far has appeared to be an april fools bull trap for now. I still think probability favors a bearish breakdown, and now think that the AApril Fool's joke for today was this giant bull trap. However because now a bullish breakout is still very much possible I have drawn a projection trend line at where a bullish breakout could take us (around 8100-8200) Just in case this does have a bullish breakout. I still think a double bottom is likely and now that the blue 161% fib line has been redrawn I will probably enter back in around 6030 or so. with the intention of laddering in a little more if we reach the new lower fib line and laddering in a little more for any further lines of support we reach under that. If we have a bullish break out I will enter right above the neon green dashed line around $7308. you'll notice on this last bull surge we still didn't have a higher high than the last big green candle so we didn't establish a higher high meaning ebars are still in control and increasing the probability of a bearish breakdown from the flag. Still best to always be prepared for the opposite outcome. I remain short for now however ...if the current candle closes above the red triangle of the bearpennant then it may not need to reach the higher high yet to continue upward or break bullishly out of the bear pennant which would definitely give it a higher high, so very wise to watch closely now the next two 4hour candles because a close above the triangle on this one means that it still needs one more confirmation candle/ or a ton of bull volume on the following candle to confirm the breakout so it could close above the triangle on this one but then drop way under it on the next one as a bull trap....if the current candle closes inside the triangle...we will have one more candle that will be after it which will still of a slightly greater probability of breaking bearishly downward but it is wise to be patient with both outcomes before you decide to change from short to long or long to short. This is just my take and not financial advice...thanks for reading!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by DrDovetail