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Bearishstrategicstructure

BTC-DAILY - WATCH 38'244 AND 39'900 AS PIVOT LEVELSOn the DAILY TIME FRAME , the 2 levels to watch at and monitor carefully still the same than yesterday : 1) ON THE DOWNSIDE : 38’244 (Former recent intraday low) 2) ON THE UPSIDE : 39’700 – 39’900 ( KS and TS Cluster) A breakout, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS , of one of those levels, would have the following implications : DOWNSIDE : Focus will shift towards the 37’000, former congestion zone seen at the end of February ahead of the former low of Jan 24th around the 33’000 area. UPSIDE : Focus will shift towards the ongoing downtrend line resistance, currently around 41’250, ahead the main resistance of the DAILY CLOUDS , currently between 41’550 and 42’524, THE LATTER LEVEL (42’524) BEING THE KEY PIVOT LEVEL, WHICH IF CLEARLY BROKEN WILL FORCE TO A VIEW REASSESSMENT OF MY EXPECTED BEARISH SCENARIO CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS RSI below 50, @ 46.72 LAGGING LINE moving, for the time being on a sideways mode, below the KIJUN-SEN. Last but not least the ongoing secondary uptrend support line (around 38'800 ) is currently under attack and and a failure to hold above this line, on a DAILY CLOSING BASIS, would also weigh on the BTC in increasing the selling pressure. 4 HOURS (H4) Currently below the clouds and the Mid Bollinger Band and just slightly below the TENKAN-SEN (39'056) Ongoing H4 closing level should give more clues for the upcoming trading hours. Indeed, the H4 clouds resistance area (39'532-41'250) should be seen as the main obstacle to cross over in this time frame; 39'904 being the 38.2% Fib ret, 40'418 the 50% ahead of 40'931 (61.8%) and also close to the top of H4 clouds. RSI @ 45.95 LAGGING LINE below the H4 clouds and below both TS and KS; still slightly above MBB Currently caught during the last 2 days, in a narrow trading range, between 38'700 and 39'500 1 HOUR (H1) Sideways price action, currently below the H1 clouds which are, at the moment, very thin = very fragile. A sustainable recovery above the hourly clouds would be the first signal, calling for a potential TACTICAL SHORT TERM REVERSAL, with, once again an upside potential pretty limited (Fibonacci retracements previously mentioned in H4) in this broad BEARISH STRATEGIC STRUCTURE !!! CONCLUSION : HAVING IN MIND A STRATEGIC VIEW, THE UPCOMING WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL IN A COUPLE OF HOURS SHOULD GIVE ADDITIONAL CLUES FOR NEXT WEEK AS A FAILURE TO HOLD WITHIN THE CLOUDS WOULD BE SEEN AS A ADDITIONAL WARNING SIGNAL, CALLING FOR LOWER LEVELS; THE LAST 2 WEEKS, THE BTC MANAGED TO CLOSE AND HOLD ABOVE THE BOTTOM OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS AREA ! Will the BTC be able to repeat the price action of the 2 previous weeks and hold above the bottom of the weekly clouds ? Answer in a few hours... Have a nice Sunday and all the best. Take care, IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
BTC-DAILY-WARNING DARK CLOUD COVER !Looking briefly at the ongoing weekly time frame picture we can see a TRIANGLE PATTERN IN PROGRESS and a recent price action attempting to downside breakout the WEEKLY CLOUDS SUPPORT LEVEL (37'516) intraweek low being @ 37'169. RSI is below 50,@ 41.76 LAGGING LINE is roughly in the middle of the CLOUDS UPCOMING WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT AGAIN TO LOOK AT AND WILL VALIDATE OR INVALIDATE ONCE AGAIN THE THIRD ATTEMPTING IN A ROW TO BREAKOUT THE BOTTOM OF THE WEEKLY CLOUDS SUPPORT DAILY (D1) Yesterday's price action triggered a DARK CLOUD COVER (BEARISH SIGNAL) with a closing level (39'444), below : 1) the clouds 2) the Tenkan-Sen 3) The Kijun-Sen AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST BELOW "MY BAROMETER", THE MID BOLLINGER BAND (39'658) The intraday low so far @ 38'244 also coincides with the ongoing uptrend support line and may be seen as a short term minor support RSI @ 45.34 LAGGING LINE , below the clouds, the Tenkan-Sen, the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen Overall, following the failure before yesterday to recover and hold sustainably above 42'524 ( have a look at my yesterday's analysis) and the yesterday's bearish price action, the GLOBAL DAILY PICTURE REMAINS HEAVY SUPPORTED BY THE ONGOING PERSISTING DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE WEEKLY TIME FRAME... 4 HOURS (H4) The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement extension @ 38'329 has been filled. Currently, below the clouds, Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen and Mid Bollinger Band. RSI @ 39.89 LAGGING LINE below all the important indicators ! No signal of short term reversal yet, in this H4 time frame 1 HOUR (H1) Potential short term potential recovery (RSI bullish divergence) with an upside move, f or the time being pretty limited towards 39'000-39'500 , the latter level being the KIJUN-SEN and also the bottom of the H4 clouds resistance area. CONCLUSION : STRATEGIC PICTURE REMAINS GLOBALLY BEARISH and for the time being any recovery should be seen as a CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY in a BROAD BEAR TREND and therefore, TACTICAL EXPOSURE (countrertrend ! ) should be managed accordingly in adopting a disciplined RISK REWARD APPROACH in having always in mind : IN WHICH TIME FRAME AM I TRADING, very short term, short term, medium or long term ! This methodology will allow you to put in place a trading plan which will be in perfect adequation with your objectives in terms of time horizon and targets. On the upside I reiterate what I told yesterday, in that only a sustainable move above 42'524 on a daily closing level would force to a view reassessment of my strategic bearish scenario calling for lower levels, with, of course, due to this high volatility current environment, plenty of TACTICAL TRADING OPPORTUNITY which should, as previously mentioned, managed accordingly in placing trailing stop losses to protect your potential profits. Do you like my analysis ? If YES, please, do not forget to like it and for those who do not follow me yet on trading view, please add IRONMAN8848 on your following list and for those who do not have access yet to TRADING VIEW (the best trading application available for the moment) please sign up in clicking on the following link : www.tradingview.com Have a nice trading day and may your long goes up and your short goes down. All the best and take care. IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
NASDAQ 100 - ONGOING DOWNTREND...WEEKLY (W1) Ongoing downside price action, close to the former low of 13'706 reached in January ahead of the first technical target I am still calling for @ 12'894 (see my previous analysis), which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally (6'628.75 - 16'767.50) A move towards this level would confirm a downside breakout of the clouds bottom support, currently @ 13'170 and therefore would add further selling pressure. RSI @ 36.48 is still converging to the downside. Only a sustainable recovery above 14'550 (weekly top clouds area) would neutralize the ongoing downside risk and would force to a view reassessment of this expected bearish scenario. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPSIDE KEY PIVOT LEVELS REMAINS BETWEEN 15'182 AND 15'436 !!! Last but not least, do not forget that even if the NQ1 reached 12'894, it would only be the 38.2% Fib ret and therefore there is still plenty of space below towards the 50% Fib ret @ 11'698 with intermediate support around 11'300 (monthly clouds bottom area). DAILY (D1) WATCH THE SECONDARY DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE , currently @ 14'350 AS THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE TO BREAK on this daily time frame. Downside : watch carefully at the ongoing price action and at the daily closing level (potential bullish divergence !! 4 HOURS (H4) Potential RSI bullish divergence in progress (wait for ongoing candle closing) for validation or invalidation 1 HOUR (H1) Also potential RSI bullish divergence ! check ongoing candle closing price !) IRONMAN8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
BTC-H4-DOUBLE TOP @ 39'552 FILLED !4 HOURS (H4) The double top target @ 39'552 has been filled with an intraday low @ 39'450, roughy also filled the 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 39'400 mentioned in my previous analysis. No bullish divergences detected so far ! Lagging line below the clouds too. RSI below 50, @ 34.09 Nevertheless, after this nice decline, it is likely, on short term to see and this is what currently is happening, some short term corrective recovery which is expected to be pretty limited in this broad bearish strategic structure. Indeed, looking ahead, the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'338 in this H4 time frame, is the first resistance level to look at on a H4 closing basis as a sustainable move above this level would open the door for higher levels towards R2 @ 41'487 ahead the pivot level on H4 @ 42'117. A successful recovery above 42'117 (H4 closing basis) would put the focus (once again...) to the CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA (42750-43'500) interesting to note that 42'747 is the 61.8% Fib ret of the last downside move starting @ 44'785 towards 39'450. DOWNSIDE : A successful breakout of the 39'400, as already mentioned in my previous analysis would directly put the focus on the next support level, which is 37'877 (very fragile zone between 39'400 and 37'877-mirror effect of the long white candle seen during the trading session of February 4th, and ahead of 37'510 (78.6 % Fibonacci retracement extension) DAILY (D1) T he DAILY CLOUDS, for the time being rejected the downside breakout attempt and for now the levels to watch on this daily picture are, ONCE AGAIN THE CLOUDS, respectively and currently : UPSIDE : 42'525 DOWNSIDE : 39'500 A BREAKOUT OF ONE OF THOSE LEVEL ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS WILL CONFIRM THE DIRECTION FOR THE UPCOMING DAILY TRADING SESSIONS !!! As usual, watch and monitor closely, intraday shorter time frames to get clues which will validate or invalidate scenarios implications previously explained. Have a nice Saturday and take care Ironman8848. & Jean-Pierre Burki
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
NQ1 100 MF-W1-EN ROUTE FOR 12'894 !Broad picture continue to be negative !!! WEEKLY (W1) Last week price action triggered a long black candle (very bearish, almost a "MARUBOZU") which roughly closed at its lowest level of the week ! Therefore, it is very important to look very carefully at the price action which took place prior to this long black candle. The week before, a perfect *DOJI" pattern has been triggered which was a first warning signal of growing uncertainty; in addition, the closing level of this doji was at the same point than the weekly Kijun-Sen, which also added increasing pressure for a potential downside breakout which occured this week. Last week price action should not be underestimated as the former uptrend channel has also been clearly broken, meaning a TREND REVERSAL CONFIRMED in this weekly time frame !!! STRATEGIC TARGET IS AT 12'894 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally, starting @ 6628.75-16767.50 in March 2020 towards the ATH reached in November 2021. Please also take note that this level coincides with the weekly clouds bottom level and therefore should be really considered as a KEY PIVOT SUPPORT LEVEL for further development. Watch also : 1) the Lagging line price action over the upcoming sessions; 2) the monthly clouds in overlay on this weekly chart which gives additional information about downside potential; 3) RSI price action which is still converging to the downside. DAILY (D1) Ongoing downside move, confirmed by : 1) the primary downtrend resistance line which started from ATH (16'767.50) towards the pullback attempt which failed @ 16'659.50; 2) the secondary ongoing downtrend resistance line, currently around 15400, which started from 16'659.50 Low reached so far last Friday intraday @ 14'408 with a daily&weekly closing roughly at the low of the day& week @ 16'426.50 which is not positive at all for the upcoming trading session (s) Interesting to have a look at the trading range (13'788-12'648) of the weekly clouds (on overlay) which should be seen as the next significant support zone. Clear RSI bearish convergence. 4 HOURS (H4) No trend reversal detected on this time frame yet, still converging to the downside. 1 HOUR (H 1) Potential upcoming RSI bullish divergence which is not validated yet ! Therefore, watch carefully,, at the next opening trading session, upcoming short term price action which would validate or invalidate a potential short term recovery which, for the time being is expected to be very limited and which should be seen as a short term corrective move. ONLY A SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY ABOVE THE 15'000 AREA WOULD NEUTRALISE TEMPORARY THIS ONGOING DOWNSIDE MOVE PRICE ACTION. Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
1
NQ1E-mini-Futures - D1 - TRIANGLE !Looking at the daily picture, after having broke down the clouds, the Nasdaq 100 fut is triggering, a triangle formation in progress in a new broad bear trend ! Indeed, recent and current price action should be seen as a natural pullback towards the former support area which became now the new resistance to break in order to neutralise, temporary, the ongoing downside price action triggered a couple days ago by a successive of long black candles ! So what are the implications of a triangle breakout : a +/- move of 545 points, targeting respectively : ON THE UPSIDE : 15'315 (roughly the top of the clouds resistance area) ON THE DOWNSIDE : 13'896 (former weekly double top pattern seen in last February-April Interesting to note the 38.2% Fib ret (@ 14'761), of the downside move from 15399 to 14'367, also coincides to the triangle breakout level on the upside ! Last but not least, the Lagging span also failed to recover above this important level... CONCLUSION : Looking at the current price action, the odds are likely for further downside towards the triangle base. As always, monitor closely, shorter intraday time frames to get more clues which will help you to act accordingly. Have a nice day :-) Ironman8848
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Ironman8848
5
BTC - D1 - TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS ---> IMPLICATIONS !Good morning, today, we are going to look at the daily picture. Indeed, as already mentioned in my previous analysis, we can see a triangle pattern in progress with breakout levels, respectively at, currently : On the upside : 43'835 (intraday high) On the downside : 40'931 IMPLICATIONS : A clear breakout, on a daily closing of one of those levels would trigger a +/- move of 5'586, targeting respectively : On the upside : 49'421 On the downside : 35'345 Immediate level to look at very closely is @ 42'870 (TS) ! A failure to hold and stay above that area would trigger further selling pressure calling for a retest of the former support zone 41'500/40'500 which is also the trigger level of the triangle pattern breakout !!! On the upside. next significant level to look at is at 41'000 (potential upside triangle breakout) ahead of primary downtrend line resistance which also coincides with MBB (currently @ 44'543 Globally, no change in my view, we are still in a broad bearish strategic structure and recent and current price action should only be seen as a corrective move and not as a trend reversal yet. !!! SELL ON RALLY ! Warning : Only a sustainable move above 45'500 (former D1 support trend line) and a daily closing level above this area,would force me to a view reassessment of my bearish expected scenario calling for lower levels towards the triangle target @ 35'345 As usual, do not forget to monitor closely intraday time frames in starting from H4, H1 and shorter to catch early signal (s) such as divergences which will allow you to act accordingly. I reiterate again my warning in telling you that each tactical countertrend exposure should be protected with a tight trailing stop loss ! Please do not forget to do it. Do you like my analysis, so do not forget 1) to like it and 2) to add me on your following list ! Many thanks in advance. :-) Have a great day and all the best. Take care Ironman 8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
2
BTCUSD - D1 - CRUCIAL SUPPORT LEVEL !Good morning, I hope you are all well :-) Today we are going to look especially at the daily picture which is showing a crucial and critical support level around the 40'000 area !!! Why ? The reason is very simple : "WATCH THE CLOUDS !" Indeed, as you can see on this chart, the first downside breakout has been rejected by what ? By the clouds ! This rejection triggered an upside corrective move of roughly 10% (or +/- 5'000 points) towards a intraday high of 45'159 --> pullback towards the former uptrend support line (in green) and failure to break it !!! Now, BTCUSD is again very close of this important support level and a breakout confirmation of the clouds on a daily basis would be seen as the first significant bearish signal on this daily time frame which would open the door for lower level targeting respectively 39'573 (former low of Sept 21st) ahead of 37'903 (61.8% Fib ret 28600-52956) then, the triangle target @ 36'732 and lower the bottom of the weekly clouds @ 33'812, which is also the 78.6% Fib ret). [ b] In order to neutralise, temporary, this ongoing strategic bearish structure, BTCUSD needs, firstly to quickly recover and hold on a daily closing basis above 42'366 --> bullish engulfing pattern ; indeed, such kind of price action would be the first step of a long journey as there are plenty of obstacles to go through on the upside before conclude that we will be again in a bull market. PIVOT LEVELS TO BREAK ON THE UPSIDE ARE THE FOLLOWING : 45'000 CLUSTER 46'265 (KS) 48'000 (D1 CLOUDS TOP) CONCLUSION : Watch shorter time frames (intraday) to get early and intermediate signals which will validate or invalide the above scenarios mentioned and allow you to act accordingly. Do not forget, we are currently in a STRATEGIC BEAR MARKET, and any TACTICAL EXPOSURE (countertrend) should be monitored on disciplined manner in using tight trailing stop losses Do not forget to like my idea if you find it valuable for you and also if you want to follow me, also add me on your following list. Have a nice day Take care and all the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
4
BTC - H4 - PULLBACK ATTEMPT !Today we are going to look at three time frames : Firstly the 4 hours where the base of the triangle is currently under attack with an ongoing pullback attempt Secondly, the hourly to see if there is & are potential reversal signal (s) Thirdly, the daily picture to have a global overview of what is going on Let's go to the 4 HOURS CHART : Currently, after having briefly reached an intraday low of 41'982 (so far !), below the triangle support trend line, the BTC is attempting to recover with a pullback which should, of course, be confirmed over the coming hours ! A failure to quickly recover within the triangle pattern and above the cluster (@ 42'870/42'930) would confirm further downside in the cards. TRIANGLE BREAKOUT GIVES A TECHNICAL TARGET @ 36'732 ( - 13.19 % or - 5586 pts) Intermediate supports @ 40'800 (former double bottom) ahead of 39'573 former intraday low of Sept 21st Last but not least, as a gentle remember, the 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement is @ 37'903 and should also be seen, as an important support level to consider Should BTC recover sharply and breakout the upside of the triangle, the technical target would be 49'686 ! (unlikely for the time being) HOURLY: As for H4, currently in an upside corrective move, currently facing the bottom of the clouds resistance and TS too ! Interesting to note that the top of the clouds, also coincides with the cluster of KS and MBB, around 43000/43100 which roughly corroborate the resistance area above mentioned on H4 ! So watch the clouds and monitor closely price action over the coming hours which will help you to get validation or invalidation of the triangle implication previously explained. DAILY : Global picture remains heavy ! Currently traded below the downtrend line resistance and below KS, MBB and TS. For the time being still in the clouds which is showing a sideways price action and could be seen, in this time frame as NEUTRAL ! LEVELS TO WATCH ON D1 ARE THE FOLLOWING : Upside : 45'000 Downside : 40'000 Have a nice trading day. All the best and take care. If you like my analysis and you find it valuable for your trading strategies, please do not forget to like it and for those who does not follow me yet, also please add me on your following list. All the best Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848
1
BTC - MULTI TIME FRAMES AT A GLANCE - REVERSAL ?M1: Strategic target unchanged @ 27'169 W1 : The last 2 weeks price action is encouraging; indeed, the bullish engulfing pattern identified 1 week ago has been confirmed by a long white bullish candle. Nevertheless, on one hand, the BTC remains under the weekly downtrend resistance line (currently @ 43645) and on the other hand also below KS (@46'747) and only a clear breakout of the latter level would confirm a strategic trend reversal calling for higher levels towards the 50'000 psychological and round level ! On the downside, in W1, watch 35'600 as the next support level. D1 : Following the upside breakout of the clouds which took place three days ago, we can see a natural pullback price action; important to note the yesterday's closing level @ 39'839 which was below the opening level of the long white candle which triggered the clouds breakout !!! That should be seen as a first warning of a bull trap. Daily clouds zone should now be seen, with Tenkan Sen as the first significant support area for further development. H4 : Technical target of the double top, mentioned in my previous analysis @ 39'386 has been filled (intraday low @ 39'217), A doji bottom triggered a recovery which has been stopped for the time being by the KS. We can see a new downtrend picture from the former top @ 42'614. Watch 40'473 ahead of the cluster 40'850/40'900 as first resistance area. A failure to recover above those levels would open the door for the H4 clouds support area 38'500-36'000 H1 : Recovery price action which should be seen as a corrective move only, no bullish divergence detected ! M30 : KS works perfectly well in rejecting the attempting to go higher M15 : Clouds worked also well as a resistance zone for the time being M5 : Following the clouds breakout, a quick recovery took place towards an intraday high of 40'224 ; it has been short lived and BTC is again below MBB, KS and TS CONCLUSION: As already mentioned several times, watch carefully all time frames from M5 to H4, in order to detect intermediate information which will validate or invalidate, technical views expressed on D1, W1 and M1 Have a nice week and all the best my friends. Take care Ironman8848
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Ironman8848