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Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trade Idea – Short Setup on 15-Min ChartMarket Context: Bitcoin has been in a clear downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows on the 15-minute timeframe. The price recently rejected from the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $84,510, indicating strong selling pressure at that zone. A new low was formed at $83,532, confirming continued bearish momentum. Trade Setup: Type: Short (Sell) Entry Zone: $84,000 - $83,800 This zone represents a potential pullback area where sellers might re-enter the market. The Fibonacci retracement and previous price action confirm resistance in this region. Stop Loss : $84,240 A stop loss above $84,240 is placed to invalidate the trade if Bitcoin gains bullish momentum beyond the recent swing high. Profit Targets: Target 1: $82,575 This aligns with the 1.0 Fibonacci extension level, a common take-profit zone. Target 2: $81,775 The 1.414 Fibonacci extension, further confirming a continuation of the trend. Target 3: $81,380 The 1.618 Fibonacci extension, marking a deep continuation move where price might find stronger support. Risk-to-Reward (RR) Analysis: The setup offers a high RR ratio, making it a favorable short trade. The trade allows for tight risk management while targeting a significant move in price. Confluence Factors Supporting the Short: Bearish Trend: Price is making lower highs and lower lows. Fibonacci Retracement Resistance: Rejection from key levels. Liquidity Grab & Pullback: Price may retest resistance before continuing downward. Risk-Reward Favorability: Targets align well with market structure. This setup offers a solid momentum-based short opportunity with clearly defined risk levels and take-profit zones. Traders should monitor the entry zone reaction before confirming the short position. 🚀
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by tanmaybist
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast | Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish MoveIntroduction This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1-Day Chart Analysis highlights a critical market development: the breakdown of a Rising Wedge pattern, signaling a potential bearish trend. After reaching a new all-time high (ATH) resistance, BTC has shown weakness, confirming a possible reversal. This analysis covers key levels, trend structure, trading setups, and market psychology for traders looking to capitalize on this move. 1️⃣ Understanding the Chart Structure Rising Wedge Pattern – A Classic Bearish Reversal A Rising Wedge is a bearish technical formation that develops when prices rise within a narrowing range. It typically features: ✅ Higher Highs & Higher Lows: Suggesting bullish momentum, but the price action becomes weaker over time. ✅ Converging Trendlines: Showing a loss of buyer strength as each rally fails to make significant new highs. ✅ Volume Decline: As the wedge matures, volume decreases, confirming reduced buying interest. ✅ Breakdown Confirmation: A sharp drop below the lower trendline validates the bearish move. In this case, BTC followed all the classic wedge characteristics, and its breakdown has initiated a potential major correction. 2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Dynamics 🔵 Resistance Level + All-Time High (ATH) (~$110K-$115K) BTC reached its ATH resistance zone but failed to hold above it. The red arrow indicates the rejection at the top, where strong selling pressure emerged. Bulls attempted multiple breakouts but failed, leading to a reversal. 🟢 Support Zone (~$78K-$80K) – Weak Retest Before Breakdown The price initially bounced off this support but struggled to hold gains. The blue support level highlights a key zone where BTC found temporary stability. A weak rally followed, but the price got rejected again, confirming the bearish trend. 🔻 Major Bearish Target (~$48,920) Using the measured move theory, the projected drop extends to $48,920, a strong historical support. The black arrow points to the expected downward trajectory. 3️⃣ Trading Setup & Risk Management 🔽 Bearish Trade Setup (Short Position Strategy) For traders looking to short BTC based on this pattern, here’s an optimal trade setup: 🔸 Entry Point: Around $85K-$90K (post-retest of breakdown) 🔸 Stop Loss: Above $100K (invalidation of the bearish setup) 🔸 Take Profit Targets: TP1: $75K (minor support) TP2: $60K (psychological level) TP3: $48,920 (final bearish target) Alternative Scenario – Bullish Recovery? If BTC reclaims $100K+ with high volume, the bearish thesis is invalidated, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. A break above ATH ($115K) would confirm new bullish strength. 4️⃣ Market Sentiment & Psychological Factors 📉 Bearish Sentiment Strengthens: Rising Wedges often cause a bull trap, where buyers expect new highs but get caught in a reversal. Current price action suggests sellers are gaining control. ⚠️ Key Risks for Traders: False breakdowns can occur if BTC sees unexpected bullish news. Keeping an eye on fundamental developments (ETF approvals, macroeconomic conditions, etc.) is essential. Conclusion – BTC Heading for a Deeper Correction? Bitcoin’s Rising Wedge breakdown strongly suggests a continued bearish trend. Short opportunities are ideal below $90K, with downside targets near GETTEX:48K -$50K. If BTC regains $100K+, bearish outlook is invalid. 📊 Trading Recommendation: Monitor price action closely and adjust risk management accordingly! Would you like me to tweak any part of this analysis? 😊
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Possible Similarities to 2022 Bear Market QQQ Weekly Chart. Very similar structure and price action to the run up and subsequent bear market of 2022. Plan is to sell into strength and possibly look for longs off deep support levels. If this scenario unfolds it will require adaptability and will present difficult trading scenarios that will punish hesitation and chasing. Great opportunities for long term investors off deep support levels such as 200 SMA on higher timeframes. A pull back to 450 would be the first target and the 21 EMA on the Monthly chart and the 89 EMA on the Weekly. Look for possible put options 7-21 DTE.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by NotesOfaTrader
1
#HIVEUSDT is maintaining a bearish structure📉 Short BYBIT:HIVEUSDT.P from $0.2424 🛡 Stop loss $0.2455 🕒 1H Timeframe ⚡️ Overview: ➡️ The POC (Point of Control) is at 0.2527, marking the area with the highest trading volume and now acting as major resistance. ➡️ The 0.2455 level serves as local resistance — price has already started to decline from that zone. ➡️ Price BYBIT:HIVEUSDT.P is steadily moving lower and staying below volume clusters, confirming the bearish structure. ➡️ A breakdown below $0.2424 could lead to acceleration toward target zones. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $0.2399 💎 TP 2: $0.2379 💎 TP 3: $0.2366 📢 Watch for confirmation of the $0.2424 breakdown — it’s key for continuation. 📢 If price reclaims $0.2455, the short setup becomes invalid. BYBIT:HIVEUSDT.P is maintaining a bearish structure — expect quick target reaction if the signal confirms.
Short
by MoriartyTrading
#GPSUSDT is forming a bearish structure📉 Short BYBIT:GPSUSDT.P from $0.02888 🛡 Stop loss $0.02952 🕒 1H Timeframe ⚡️ Overview: ➡️ The main POC (Point of Control) is at 0.03326, marking the highest volume zone and a major resistance above the current price. ➡️ The 0.02952 level acts as local resistance and an ideal stop placement. ➡️ Price BYBIT:GPSUSDT.P has already tested the $0.02888 support — a confirmed breakdown could trigger stronger downward momentum. ➡️ Volume is increasing on the decline, supporting the sellers' pressure. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $0.02850 💎 TP 2: $0.02810 💎 TP 3: $0.02787 📢 Watch for a clean break of the $0.02888 level — it could be the entry trigger for this short setup. 📢 If price pulls back above $0.02952, the short scenario becomes invalid. BYBIT:GPSUSDT.P is forming a bearish structure — continuation to the downside is expected if support fails.
Short
by MoriartyTrading
BTC to 42k 2025 possibly lower ### 🔎 **1. Sentiment & Behavioral Data**: - **App Rank + Google Trends Overlay**: Elevated app rank + Google Trends spikes historically mark **local tops or overheating**, often preceding significant cool-downs. - Current period mirrors previous euphoric cycles. - RSI (monthly) also elevated → supports reversion. --- ### 🧊 **2. Macro Liquidity Conditions**: - **BTC vs Global Liquidity Index**: - Historically tightly correlated. - Current divergence: **BTC is at ATH territory**, while **Global Liquidity Index is still suppressed**. - Suggests **unsustainable move**, and vulnerability if liquidity tightens. --- ### 🏦 **3. ETF Flow Structure**: - **Monthly Flows:** - Net positive ($780M), **but cooling**. - Feb had negative net flows (~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:4B out), March stabilizing but still tepid inflows. - Sign of **diminishing marginal demand** from institutional flows → could fail to support current prices if retail demand slows. --- ### 🔥 **4. Liquidation Heatmap (Hyperliquid)**: - **Heavy liquidation clusters**: - Between **$86K - $90K** → currently being tested. - **Liquidity vacuum below ~$80K** with significant liquidation levels → ideal for a **"liquidity hunt" wick** if downside opens up. - Reinforces potential **swift downside mechanics** via cascading leverage. --- ### 📈 **5. Technical Structure & Smart Money Concepts**: #### BTCUSD (Weekly View): - Price hitting **regression model’s upper red band** (mean reversion zone). - Momentum indicators (MACD, ST Oscillator, Squeeze) all **bearish divergent**. - Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) below ($66K– GETTEX:52K ) + large Weekly OBs → **magnet zones**. #### BTCUSDT.P (Perpetual Futures): - RSI and volume profile show clear **bearish divergence**. - Weekly CHoCH (Change of Character) + potential **lower high forming**. - Price sitting in **high liquidity zone** with **weak support below**. #### BRN/BTC Ratio: - Shows **macro risk-off positioning** still in play (low oil/energy relative to BTC). - Risk that this reverses → capital rotation *out of crypto* and into commodities. --- ### ⚠️ **Conclusion: Near-Term Bearish Bias** Your thesis is still anchored in the **broader structural bull market**, but the current **micro-structure is highly vulnerable** to a **mid-cycle correction**, driven by: - Overheated retail metrics. - Bearish divergence across momentum tools. - Depleting ETF inflows. - Liquidity + liquidation setups ideal for **fast downside moves**. - Macro conditions (liquidity and cross-asset risk ratios) not supportive of continued vertical price expansion **without correction**.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by JavierXBT
(XAU/USD) Sell Setup |Bearish Move Expected Towards Key SupportAnalysis: The price has experienced a strong uptrend but is now showing signs of resistance near the 3,054.161 level. A support level is identified around 3,000, which has been tested multiple times. A potential sell setup is indicated after the price retested a resistance-turned-support zone around 3,027.737. The target for the downside move is marked at 2,942.844, aligning with a previous support level. If bearish momentum continues, a further decline toward 2,915.859 is possible. Trading Idea: Sell Entry: Around 3,027-3,030 after confirmation of rejection. Stop Loss: Above 3,054 (recent resistance). Take Profit Targets: TP1: 2,942 TP2: 2,915 Market Sentiment: The price is reacting to key levels, and if it breaks below 3,000, it could accelerate the bearish move. A break above 3,054 would invalidate the short setup and could push the price higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PIPsOptimizer
Gold (XAU/USD) - Head & Shoulders Breakdown & Bearish MoveOverview of the Chart & Market Context The 1-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) reveals a classic Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, a well-known bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the recent uptrend has lost momentum, and a potential downside move could be in progress. Currently, the price is testing the neckline, which serves as a key support level. If a decisive breakdown occurs, it could confirm further bearish momentum, leading to a sharp decline toward the projected target price of $2,995. Key Technical Analysis & Levels 🔹 Resistance Level & Reversal Zone (~$3,055–$3,060) The price attempted to break this resistance but faced strong rejection, forming the head of the pattern. The area was tested multiple times, confirming that sellers are in control. This level acts as a supply zone, preventing the price from moving higher. 🔹 Support Level (Neckline of H&S Pattern at ~$3,025–$3,030) This level represents the critical neckline, which has been tested multiple times. If price breaks and sustains below this support, the H&S pattern will be validated, signaling a deeper drop. A successful retest of the neckline as resistance could provide an optimal shorting opportunity. 🔹 Projected Target Price (~$2,995) The expected downside move is calculated using the measured move technique, measuring the distance from the head to the neckline. This target aligns with previous structure support, increasing its significance. Detailed Breakdown of the Head & Shoulders Pattern 📍 Left Shoulder Formation The market experienced an initial bullish push, reaching a local high, but sellers entered and pushed prices down. This formed the first lower high, hinting at potential weakness in the bullish trend. 📍 Head Formation After retracing from the left shoulder, buyers made another attempt to push prices higher. The price formed a new peak, but it was unable to sustain the breakout above the resistance level (~$3,055–$3,060). A sharp sell-off followed, reinforcing that sellers are dominant at higher levels. 📍 Right Shoulder Formation The price attempted another rally but failed to break the left shoulder’s high, creating the right shoulder. This failure confirmed a gradual loss of bullish strength. After forming the right shoulder, the price began to drop toward the neckline support. 📍 Breakout Confirmation & Bearish Price Action The price has now broken the neckline (~$3,030), indicating an early-stage breakdown of the H&S pattern. If the breakdown holds, further downside movement toward $2,995 is likely. A retest of the neckline as new resistance would be an ideal entry point for short positions. Trade Setup & Risk Management 📌 Potential Short Trade Setup: Entry: After a confirmed break and retest of the $3,030 neckline. Stop-Loss: Above the right shoulder (~$3,045–$3,050) to minimize risk. Take-Profit: Around $2,995, aligning with the measured move. 📌 Risk Factors & Market Conditions: If the price fails to hold below the neckline, it could indicate a false breakdown and a possible bullish reversal. Macroeconomic data (such as interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions) may impact gold prices. Traders should watch for volume confirmation – increased selling pressure strengthens the validity of the breakdown. Final Thoughts & Market Outlook 📉 The Head and Shoulders pattern signals that gold is losing bullish momentum, with a potential drop toward $2,995. 🔍 A break and retest of the neckline as resistance would confirm further downside movement. ⚠️ However, a failed breakdown could lead to a recovery, so traders should wait for confirmation before entering trades. 💬 What do you think about this setup? Are you going short on gold? Drop your thoughts in the comments below! ⬇️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
#BROCCOLIUSDT is showing bearish potential SHORT BYBIT:BROCCOLIUSDT.P from $0.04545 🛡 Stop Loss: $0.04737 🕒 Timeframe: 1H ⚡️ Overview: ➡️ BYBIT:BROCCOLIUSDT.P is showing bearish momentum on the 1-hour timeframe after a significant drop from $0.06000 to the current consolidation zone of $0.4203–$0.4885. ➡️ The price recently tested the $0.04545 level (a possible retest of a broken support, now acting as resistance), which could serve as an entry point for a short. ➡️ The volume profile on the left shows strong buyer interest at $0.0325 (POC), which acts as a key support level. However, the lack of significant buying volume at current levels suggests potential for further downside. ➡️ The price structure remains bearish: lower highs and lows are forming after the drop. ➡️ The RSI (14) indicator on the 1H timeframe is presumably around 45 (based on price action), indicating neutral momentum with room for a downward move. 🎯 Take Profit Targets: 💎 TP 1: $0.04400 💎 TP 2: $0.04290 💎 TP 3: $0.04203 ⚡️Plan: ➡️ Entry: Sell below $0.04545 after the 1-hour candle closes below this level to confirm the rejection from resistance. ➡️ Stop Loss: Set at $0.04737, which provides a 7% risk from the entry point and protects against a potential breakout. ➡️ Risk/Reward Ratio: From 1:2 (for TP1) to 1:5 (for TP3), making this trade attractive from a risk management perspective. ➡️ After the drop, the price has stabilized, indicating possible consolidation or accumulation. ➡️ Resistance zone: $0.04885 (upper boundary of the current range). Technical Indicators: ➡️ The chart shows candles in red and green, reflecting bearish and bullish movements. ➡️ After the sharp decline, the price has formed lower highs and lows, but in recent hours, there’s an attempt at recovery. 📢 A price rejection below $0.04545 with increasing selling volume increases the likelihood of reaching the targets. 📢 The $0.04400 and $0.04290 levels may act as areas for partial profit-taking, so monitor price action in these zones. 📢 Risks: If the price breaks above $0.04885, it could signal a false breakdown and a potential reversal to the upside. In this case, consider reassessing the position. 📊 The decline in BYBIT:BROCCOLIUSDT.P aligns with cautious sentiment in the crypto market. 📊 As of March 20, 2025, BYBIT:BTCUSDT.P is trading around $90,000, showing signs of consolidation, which may pressure altcoins like BYBIT:BROCCOLIUSDT.P BYBIT:BROCCOLIUSDT.P is showing bearish potential on the 1H timeframe. ⚡️A confirmed rejection below $0.04545 is your signal to act!
Short
by MoriartyTrading
USD/JPY - Breakdown Confirmation & Potential DeclineUSD/JPY - Breakdown Confirmation & Potential Decline Chart Overview: The USD/JPY price action has broken down from a previously established ascending channel. A lower high formation suggests weakening bullish momentum, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend. The key support zones are marked below, with the price likely to move towards these levels if bearish momentum persists. Technical Analysis: Breakdown Zone: The price has breached the lower trendline of the ascending channel, confirming a bearish breakdown. Resistance Levels: The price faces resistance around 0.0067786 - 0.0068488. Support Targets: Possible downside targets at 0.0066848, 0.0066012, and 0.0065720. Bearish Confirmation: A retest of the breakdown level followed by rejection strengthens the bearish outlook. Trade Consideration: Bearish Bias: A short position could be considered if the price fails to reclaim the broken trendline. Stop Loss: Above the breakdown zone to avoid potential fakeouts. Target Levels: Lower support zones for potential take-profit areas. Conclusion: The breakdown from the rising channel suggests a shift in market sentiment, with a bearish move likely. Traders should monitor price action for further confirmations.
Short
by PIPsOptimizer
Bearish Scenario If FOMC News Favors BearsFOMC interest rate news is due in less than 2hours . I Stayed out of the market waiting since last Thursday just to wait for FOMC news because the market will almost always goes into consolidation days before this news due to its significant impact. So its usually a good idea to avoid getting chopped in the sideways action unless you like donating money to the market instead of waiting for a new trend to emerge or a continuation of the on-going trend. After todays fomc news, we will know if we will resume dumping everything, or we'll evaluate potential short term bullish scenarios. For now, my recent BTC short analysis is still intact. I already took profit on all 8 short positions i was in on various coins i shorted along side BTC. If the FOMC news favors the bears, i'll be looking to re-enter shorts in the range 86.4k to 91k.
Short
by ExoProtocol
GBP/USD - 4H Chart Analysis & Trade Setup Market Overview: GBP/USD has been in an uptrend, forming a rising channel structure. The price is now testing a resistance zone, potentially indicating a reversal. Technical Analysis: Trend: Bullish (but approaching key resistance) Resistance Level: 1.29720 - 1.30000 (Highlighted Zone) Support Level: 1.24906 (Potential target) Stop Loss: 1.30970 (Above resistance) Pattern: Rising Channel Breakout Setup Trade Idea (Short Setup): 🔴 Sell Entry: Near 1.29720 (Resistance rejection confirmation) ✅ Target: 1.24906 (Major support zone) ⛔ Stop Loss: 1.30970 (Above resistance to avoid fakeouts) Conclusion: GBP/USD is testing key resistance and may face bearish rejection. A break below the channel confirms bearish momentum towards 1.24906. Traders may consider short positions with a defined risk-reward setup. 📉 Bearish bias unless price breaks above resistance.
Short
by ForexOptimizer
1
Bitcoin’s Final Surge? One Month Before the Post-Halving Drop!Bitcoin Halving Cycles: What History Tells Us About 2025 The Bitcoin halving is a highly anticipated event that occurs approximately every four years, reducing the block reward by 50% ⛏️. This supply shock has historically been a major catalyst for price movements. By analyzing previous cycles, we can attempt to forecast what might happen in the upcoming halving cycle of 2025. Historical Performance of Bitcoin Halving Cycles First Halving (2012) 365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +385% 365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +8069% Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -76.98% Second Halving (2016) 365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +142% 365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +284% Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -82.88% Third Halving (2020) 365 Days Before Halving: 📈 +17% 365 Days After Halving: 🚀 +559% Peak-to-Trough Decline After Peak: 🔻 -75.64% Current Cycle and 2025 Halving Expectations - Last Halving Date: 📅 April 15, 2024 - 365 Days Before Halving: Bitcoin gained 📈 +130% from $28,827 (April 2023) to around $65,000. - Projected 365 Days After Halving (April 2025): If history rhymes, we could see a price increase of around 📊 +72%, with a potential closure at the current Peak of $110,000. - Post-Peak Decline Estimate: Previous post-halving peaks saw declines of 📉 75%–82%. With Bitcoin's all-time high around $110,000, a 🔻 75% drawdown would target a bottom of ~$30,000 before the next recovery cycle. Key Takeaways Bitcoin's price tends to rally leading up to the halving, but the largest gains historically occur in the year following the halving. 📊 Post-bull run drawdowns are severe with past declines ranging from 🔻 -75% to -82%. While the Pre and Post-Halving theory suggests that the decline starts around 365 days after the halving, the full bear market typically unfolds between ⏳ 486 to 510 days post-halving. This aligns with the ⛓️ 70,000-block mark post-halving, as Bitcoin halvings occur approximately every 210,000 blocks. This means that while the peak may occur within a year after the halving, the deep bearish phase historically becomes evident around 1.3 to 1.4 years after the halving, reinforcing the long-term cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s market trends 🔄. Final Thoughts Bitcoin halving events are pivotal moments in the crypto market cycle 🔥. The data suggests that 2025 could see significant gains, but we should also be prepared for the inevitable correction that follows 📉. What are your thoughts on the upcoming cycle? Share your insights in the comments! Disclaimer This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The historical performance of Bitcoin halving cycles does not guarantee future results, and past trends may not necessarily repeat. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and investing in Bitcoin or any other asset carries risks, including the potential loss of capital. Readers should conduct their own research, assess their risk tolerance, and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The information provided is based on publicly available data and historical observations, which may be subject to change. Sources: Nakamoto, S. (2008). Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Bitcoin block time and halving data: Blockchain.com Historical Bitcoin price data: CoinMarketCap Bitcoin halving cycles and trends: Messari Market performance metrics: Glassnode By reading this article, you acknowledge that you are solely responsible for your own financial decisions and that the author assumes no liability for any losses incurred from trading or investing. 🚀
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Theperfectionist
3
JUP in Danger: Are We in for a Crash?JUP has been on a four-day downtrend, and it's starting to show its bearish side. The token has lost its yearly open, which was a major support level. Let’s break down the key support and resistance to see what the chart is telling us. Support & Resistance Resistance: Yearly Open & Monthly Level: JUP has dropped below the yearly open at $0.8169 and the monthly level at $0.7427 Support: Long-Term Range & Liquidity: JUP has been trading within a range for over 300 days, with a significant amount of liquidity below the low at $0.6328 from 5 July 2024. POC: The volume profile shows the POC sitting at around $0.5, marking an attractive entry point for a long position. Fibonacci Confluence: The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level falls just below the key low at $0.431 (a level last seen on 12 February 2024), offering a great long trade setup. Long Trade Opportunity: Alarms are set, let's see if JUP drops to these key support levels. If it does, we could have a solid long setup on our hands.
Short
by SiDec
1
BTCUSD – Head & Shoulders Confirmed?In my previous analysis ( ), I outlined a potential Head & Shoulders formation that could lead to a bearish move. So far, price action has followed this structure accurately. Key Developments: ✅ The right shoulder seems to be forming as expected. ✅ Price grabbed liquidity above $92,500 before reacting downward. ✅ A double top has formed, adding further bearish confluence. What’s Next? If the market respects this pattern, a break below the neckline could confirm a continuation lower, with a potential target at $59,117 , aligning with the full Head & Shoulders projection. Conclusion: So far, this setup is playing out perfectly. If bearish pressure continues, we could see a deeper decline. However, a sustained move above $95,150 would invalidate this scenario. 🔔 Do you see BTC following this path, or do you expect a bullish surprise? Drop your thoughts below!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by ProcessAndIntercept
BTC Scaling Strategy: Trade Like a Pro with Precision EntriesIf you’re new to trading, this guide will walk you through a scaling in and out strategy. We’ll cover: Risk management – protecting your capital. Entry points – how to build your position gradually. Exit points – how to lock in profits while leaving room for further gains. Maximising profit – using a small runner to capture additional upside. By the end, you'll understand: ✅ How to enter trades at optimal levels ✅ How to take profits gradually ✅ How to manage risk so you don’t blow your account BTC Market Analysis Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range for over 100 days near the 100K mark. For 22 consecutive days, bulls have tried to break above 100K, but as the price nears this level, bears consistently rejected the move. Currently, BTC broke below our critical support level at 90K confirming a breakdown in market structure. Adding fuel to the bearish fire, Bitcoin has slipped below the weekly 21 EMA (89,503) and SMA (90,437). With the bears now in control, the critical question emerges: Where will Bitcoin find its next foothold? Let’s map the high-probability support zones and strategic entry points for the next potential long opportunity. Using Fibonacci analysis: Fib Speed Fan: With a low of 49K and an ATH of 109,588 (from March), the 0.618 trend line projects support between about 78K and 82K. Anchored VWAP: When anchored from 49K, the VWAP support is around 81.7K. Negative Fibonacci Retracement: From the ATH down to the current low at 91,231, the –0.618 level is at about 79,886. Fib Extension & Retracement: Additional levels lie around 79,466 (1.618 extension) and 79,230 (0.5 retracement). Moving Averages: The 233 EMA/SMA currently ranges between roughly 83K and 78.5K. These indicators converge to form a robust support zone between approximately 83K and 78K. For a more detailed breakdown, please check my previous Bitcoin analysis, where I conducted a deeper examination. Step 1: Understanding Risk Management (The Golden Rule) Before placing a trade, you must decide: 📌 How much you’re willing to lose (risk per trade) 📌 Where you’ll enter and exit (never place a trade without a plan) How Much Should You Risk? Always risk no more than 1–2% of your total account on a single trade. Example (for a $100K Account): 1% Risk = $1,000 max loss 2% Risk = $2,000 max loss For this trade, we plan to risk about $1,366, which is approximately 1.37% of a $100K account. This disciplined approach protects your capital over the long run. Step 2: Where Do We Enter the Trade? (Scaling In) Instead of going all-in at one price, we break our $30,000 investment into 10 smaller entries and exits. This method reduces risk and often achieves a better average entry price. 💡 Why? Because no one can time the exact bottom! Spreading entries reduces risk and gets a better average entry price. www.tradingview.com BTC Buy (Entry) Levels We will buy BTC as it falls from $83,050 down to $78,050 using the following allocation percentages: Entry # Price (BTC) % of Position Amount Invested ($) BTC Acquired 1 83,050 5% $1,500 1,500 ÷ 83,050 = 0.018072 2 82,550 5% $1,500 1,500 ÷ 82,550 = 0.018181 3 82,050 5% $1,500 1,500 ÷ 82,050 = 0.018278 4 81,550 8% $2,400 2,400 ÷ 81,550 = 0.029430 5 81,050 8% $2,400 2,400 ÷ 81,050 = 0.029606 6 80,550 10% $3,000 3,000 ÷ 80,550 = 0.037234 7 80,050 12% $3,600 3,600 ÷ 80,050 = 0.044974 8 79,550 12% $3,600 3,600 ÷ 79,550 = 0.045275 9 79,050 15% $4,500 4,500 ÷ 79,050 = 0.056956 10 78,050 20% $6,000 6,000 ÷ 78,050 = 0.076352 Total Investment: $30,000 Total BTC Acquired: 0.018072 + 0.018181 + 0.018278 + 0.029430 + 0.029606 + 0.037234 + 0.044974 + 0.045275 + 0.056956 + 0.076352 ≈ 0.37436 BTC Average Entry Price: $80,150 Stop Loss: Set at $76,500 Risk per BTC: $80,150 – $76,500 = $3,650 Total Risk: 0.37436 BTC × $3,650 ≈ $1,366 (~1.37% of $100K) Step 3: Where Do We Exit the Trade? (Scaling Out) We exit gradually as BTC rises between $86,950 and $91,450. The exit percentages are as follows: Exit # Price (BTC) % of Position BTC Sold Proceeds ($) 1 86,950 5% 0.018718 0.018718 × 86,950 = $1,628.10 2 87,450 5% 0.018718 0.018718 × 87,450 = $1,637.03 3 87,950 8% 0.029949 0.029949 × 87,950 = $2,638.15 4 88,450 12% 0.044924 0.044924 × 88,450 = $3,976.39 5 88,950 14% 0.052420 0.052420 × 88,950 = $4,664.19 6 89,450 14% 0.052420 0.052420 × 89,450 = $4,691.19 7 89,950 12% 0.044924 0.044924 × 89,950 = $4,047.12 8 90,450 10% 0.037436 0.037436 × 90,450 = $3,388.20 9 90,950 5% 0.018718 0.018718 × 90,950 = $1,705.71 10 91,450 15% 0.056154 0.056154 × 91,450 = $5,137.68 Total BTC Sold: 0.018718×3 + 0.029949 + 0.044924×2 + 0.052420×2 + 0.037436 + 0.056154 = 0.374381 BTC (matches our total acquired ~0.37436 BTC)≈ $33,488.26 Profit on the Trade: Total Proceeds – Total Investment = $33,488.26 – $30,000 = +$3,488.26 Return on the Trade: $3,488.26/$30,000×100≈11.63% On Overall Account: For a $100K account, $3,488 represents a gain of about 3.49% if fully realised on this trade. Risk-to-Reward Ratio: Risk = $1,366; Reward = $3,488; Ratio ≈ $3,488 / $1,366 ≈ 2.55:1 Step 4: Profit & Risk Summary Metric – Per Trade - Based on $100K Account Total Investment - $30,000 - $30,000 (30%) Risk (Stop Loss) - $1,366 (4.6%) - $1,366(1.37%) Profit (Closed) - $3,488 (11.63%) - $3,488 (3.49%) Profit + Runner - $4,311.18 (14.37%) - $4,311.18 (4.31%) Risk-to-Reward Ratio Calculation: If Stop Loss Hits ($76,500): Average Entry Price: $80,150 Loss per BTC: $80,150 – $76,500 = $3,650 Total Risk: 0.37436 BTC × $3,650 ≈ $1,366 (1.37% of a $100K account) If BTC Reaches Our Exit Targets: Total Proceeds: ≈ $33,488 Profit: $33,488 – $30,000 = $3,488 Profit Percentage on Trade: ~11.63% Overall Account Impact: ~3.49% gain on a $100K account Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~2.55:1 Step 5: The Power of Scaling In & Out Capital Protection: You risk only about $1,366 (1.37% of a $100K account), protecting your capital even during a series of losses. Optimised Entry: Scaling in from $83,050 to $78,050 yields an average entry of about $80,150—significantly lower than the top price. Profit Locking: Scaling out from $86,950 to $91,450 allows you to lock in profits at multiple levels, ensuring you capture gains along the way. Healthy R:R: With a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 2.55:1, your potential reward significantly outweighs your risk. Discipline & Consistency: This structured approach minimises emotional trading and helps you stick to your plan. Optional Note: While this guide fully closes the trade, leaving a small portion (15%) open (runner) is an option if BTC continues to rally. Step 6: Final Pre-Trade Checklist 🔹 Support & Resistance: Is BTC trading near a strong support zone? 🔹 Technical Indicators: Is BTC holding above key moving averages (e.g., 21 EMA/SMA)? 🔹 Risk Management: Are you only risking 1–2% of your total account? 🔹 Trade Plan: Are you scaling in and out instead of going all-in? Are your entry levels and exit levels clearly defined? 🔹 Market Confirmation: Do volume, candlestick patterns, and order flow support your trade setup? Conclusion ✅ We protect our money by limiting risk ✅ We enter trades gradually (scaling in) ✅ We take profits at multiple levels (scaling out) ✅ We fully close the trade or leave some BTC open to ride the trend higher Final Tips: Common Mistakes to Avoid 👉 Overleveraging – 10x leverage + 2% risk = 20% account risk! 👉 Ignoring Volatility – Tight stops on Bitcoin often trigger early exits. 👉 Never trade based on emotions. Stick to your plan, adhere strictly to your risk management rules, and let your disciplined strategy work in your favour.
Long
by SiDec
1
Nifty Support or Fall From HereWe can only draw what the chart reveals—so keep drawing. I want to share something simple yet valuable. I’ve discovered three key secrets of the market: 1 Technical Analysis 2 ############ 3 Emotion Management What are your thoughts on point "2" ? Share in the comments! Based on my chart analysis, I anticipate 21,750 in the upcoming week. This is not a recommendation—just an educational note to leave proof that ZZ drawing works. Of course, I could be wrong because the MARKET is supreme. Thank you!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by dipanjanxsamanta
#FOXYUSDT – Bearish Scenario, Downtrend Confirmation📉 SHORT BYBIT:FOXYUSDT.P from $0.002765 🛡 Stop Loss: $0.002928 ⏱ 1H Timeframe ⚡ Trade Plan: ✅ The BYBIT:FOXYUSDT.P chart shows a confirmed breakdown of a Bearish Pennant, signaling a continuation of the downward trend. ✅ The asset is trading below POC (Point of Control) at $0.003052, confirming seller dominance. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $0.002692 🔥 TP 2: $0.002618 ⚡ TP 3: $0.002545 📢 Holding below $0.002765 would confirm the downtrend. 📢 POC at $0.003052 is a key selling area where major volume was previously accumulated. 📢 High volume on the breakout confirms bearish momentum. 📢 The first TP at $0.002692 is a level where partial profit-taking is recommended. 🚨 BYBIT:FOXYUSDT.P remains in a bearish trend – monitoring for further confirmation and securing profits at TP levels!
Short
by MoriartyTrading
1