#OMUSDT – Critical Breakout Zone📊 BYBIT:OMUSDT.P is consolidating after a strong impulse move, trading near POC ($7.5915), indicating liquidity accumulation. The price is currently trapped in a tight range, suggesting an imminent breakout in either direction.
Recent high volumes indicate strong participation from major players. The question remains—will buyers push the price higher, or will sellers take control and drive it down?
⏱ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:OMUSDT.P remains in a tight consolidation zone between resistance $7.8215 and support $7.3820.
➡️ POC ($7.5915) marks the high-volume area, making this range critical for the next move.
➡️ Price action within this zone may continue until a confirmed breakout occurs.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚡ Long Plan:
➡️ Enter long above $7.8215 after a strong breakout and confirmation.
➡️ Stop-Loss at $7.7480—below the consolidation range.
🎯 TP Target:
💎 TP1: $7.9435
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📉 Short Plan:
➡️ Enter short below $7.3820 after confirming weakness.
➡️ Stop-Loss at $7.4740—above the nearest resistance.
🎯 TP Targets:
💎 TP1: $7.2595
💎 TP2: $7.1592
📢 If the price confirms a breakout above $7.8215, an upside move to $7.9435 is likely.
📢 Conversely, a breakdown below $7.3820 could lead to $7.1592.
🚀 BYBIT:OMUSDT.P is poised for a breakout—watch volume and direction closely!
Bearish Trend Line
#ONDOUSDT – Key Moment: Further Drop or Reversal?BYBIT:ONDOUSDT.P is showing a bearish trend, trading below key resistance levels. The price is consolidating under $1.3010, indicating a potential continuation downward. Volume is increasing, confirming market interest. If the asset breaks below $1.2890, it could decline towards $1.2760 – $1.2723.
📉 SHORT BYBIT:ONDOUSDT.P from $1.2890
🛡 Stop Loss: $1.3010
⏱ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:ONDOUSDT.P is testing $1.2890, with potential for a breakdown.
➡️ Rising volume suggests increased trader activity.
➡️ A breakdown below $1.2890 could push price towards $1.2760 and lower.
⚡ Plan:
➡️ Breaking below $1.2890 opens room for further downside.
➡️ Entry at $1.2890, targets at $1.2845 – $1.2723.
➡️ Partial profit-taking recommended at $1.2845 – $1.2760.
➡️ If price moves above $1.3010, the setup is invalidated.
📍 Take Profit:
🎯 TP1: $1.2845 – first target.
💎 TP2: $1.2760 – strong support level.
🚀 TP3: $1.2723 – final profit target.
📢 Bearish confirmation requires a strong close below $1.2890.
📢 If price slows at $1.2845, partial profit-taking is recommended.
📢 A breakout above $1.3010 invalidates the setup.
🚀 BYBIT:ONDOUSDT.P is on the verge of a breakdown – expecting a move to $1.2723!
#FARTCOINUSDT remains weak — expecting further downside📉 SHORT BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P from $0.4570
🛡 Stop Loss: $0.4865
⏱ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P remains under selling pressure, forming a downtrend. The price is testing the $0.4570 level, which previously acted as support, but the market remains weak.
➡️ POC (Point of Control) at $0.5449 indicates the main liquidity zone, far above the current price. This suggests seller dominance, with major trading activity still at higher levels.
➡️ A breakdown of $0.4570 would trigger further downside, opening the way to $0.4350 – $0.4168.
➡️ The $0.4168 level is a key support, where buyers previously showed interest.
⚡ Plan:
➡️ Enter SHORT from $0.4570 after confirming a breakdown.
➡️ Stop-Loss at $0.4865, placed above the nearest resistance.
➡️ Key downside targets: $0.4350 and $0.4168.
🎯 TP Targets:
💎 TP 1: $0.4350
🔥 TP 2: $0.4168
🚀 BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P remains weak — expecting further downside!
📢 The market structure remains bearish. Volume continues to decline, confirming the weakening buying interest.
📢 However, a short-term bounce at $0.4168 is possible. If significant volume appears at this level, a brief return to $0.4350 could occur, but the overall movement remains downward.
📢 BYBIT:FARTCOINUSDT.P is in a bearish structure, and unless $0.4570 is reclaimed, we are likely to see further downside movement. A short-term bounce at $0.4168 is possible, but the overall trend remains weak.
Stocks I'm looking to short tomorrow in #StockMarketIndiaStocks I'm looking to short tomorrow in #StockMarketIndia:
1. RBL BANK NSE:RBLBANK
Entry Level: ~164
Target Level: ~154
Potential Drop: -5.95% (~9.85 points)
✅Volume Consideration: Moderate liquidity (~301.92K)
✅Trade Plan:The price has broken support around 164, signaling a short opportunity.
✅Maintain a stop-loss above the entry point (~166-167) to avoid false breakouts.
✅Look for confirmation with increasing selling volume.
2. INDIAMART INTERMESH NSE:INDIAMART
Entry Level: ~2,150
Target Level: ~2,040
Potential Drop: -4.74% (~101.90 points)
✅Volume Consideration: Low (~11.17K), so be cautious of liquidity.
✅Trade Plan:The price is rejecting resistance around 2,150, a strong short opportunity.
✅A tight stop-loss around 2,175 to manage risk.
✅Consider scaling out partial positions near 2,080 to secure profits.
3. ULTRATECH CEMENT NSE:ULTRACEMCO
Entry Level: ~11,309
Target Level: ~10,944
Potential Drop: -3.23% (~365.60 points)
✅Volume Consideration: High (~25.88K), meaning smooth execution.
✅Trade Plan:The stock has rejected an intraday resistance and is forming a downward move.
✅A stop-loss above 11,400 should prevent large losses.
✅Watch for large institutional selling volume confirming breakdowns.
🎯General Risk Management:
✅ Position Sizing: Do not risk more than 2% of total capital on any trade.
✅ Stop-Loss Placement: Maintain strict discipline on SL levels.
✅ Exit Strategy: If market sentiment shifts, consider exiting early.
Just for educational purpose. 📚
Not a Buy/Sell Reccomendations❌❌❌
GOLD 4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS GOLD ATH / READ CAPTION CAREFULLY Dear Traders,
Please find our updated analysis of the 4H Chart (5th February):
Key Observations:
Orange Circles: Highlight previously achieved targets, showcasing the precision and effectiveness of our analysis.
Previous Chart Review:
TP1 (2788): Successfully hit.
TP2 (2815): Successfully hit.
TP3 (2841): Successfully hit.
Market Overview:
* TP1 (2850) Successfully Achieved
* GOLD is trading at an ATH of 2851, oscillating between the weighted level with a gap above 2850 and a gap below the 2823 Entry Level.
* EMA5 and FVG are offering strong support in this range.
* Price action will test these levels side-by-side until a decisive break and lock above/below the weighted levels confirm the next directional move.
Resistance Levels:
2850, 2876, 2903
Key Support: 2776
Support Levels (GOLDTURN Levels):
2828 (Critical Weighted Level)
2803 (Critical Weighted Level)
2776 (Major Support Level)
2747 (Lower Major Demand Zone)
EMA5 (Red Line):
* Currently below TP1 (2850), indicating sustained bullish momentum.
* EMA5’s behavior will be pivotal in determining the next price action trajectory.
Recommendations
* Focus on EMA5 Behavior:
Bearish Case:
* If EMA5 holds below TP1 (2850) and resistance levels remain intact, bearish momentum may drive prices to retest GOLDTURN weighted levels.
* Scenario 1: If EMA5 crosses and locks below Entry 2823, expect further bearish movement toward GOLDTURN 2803.
* Scenario 2: If EMA5 crosses and locks below GOLDTURN 2803, anticipate another decline toward the major support at GOLDTURN 2776.
Bullish Case:
Scenario 1: If EMA5 crosses and locks above TP1 (2850), the next bullish target is 2876.
Scenario 2: If EMA5 crosses and locks above TP2 (2876), the subsequent bullish target will be 2903.
Scenario 3: A crossover and lock above TP3 (2903) will set the stage for the next target at 2925.
Short-Term:
Utilize 1H and 4H timeframes to capture pullbacks at GOLDTURN levels.
Target 30–40 pips per trade, focusing on shorter positions in this range-bound market.
Each Level allows 30 -40 pips bounce, buy at dip level for proper risk management
Long-Term Outlook:
* Maintain a bullish bias, viewing pullbacks as buying opportunities.
* Buying dips from key levels ensures better risk management, avoiding the pitfalls of chasing tops.
Final Thoughts:
Trade with confidence and discipline. Our detailed and accurate analysis equips you to navigate market movements effectively. Stay tuned for daily updates and multi-timeframe insights to stay ahead in the game.
Please support us by likes, comments, boosts and following our channel
Best regards,
📉💰 The Quantum Trading Mastery
#BERAUSDT Expecting a reversal and price drop📉 SHORT BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P from $5.635
🛡 Stop Loss: $6.380
⏱ 1H Timeframe
✅ Overview:
➡️ BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P is facing strong resistance around $5.635, signaling a potential price reversal.
➡️ The $5.635 - $6.000 area has acted as a liquidity zone before, and if buyers start taking profits, a correction downward is likely.
➡️ The primary target for the decline is $4.145, a level where previous buy activity was observed.
➡️ Volume is starting to decline, indicating a potential shift from buyers to sellers.
⚡ Plan:
📉 Bearish Scenario:
➡️ Enter SHORT from $5.635 if the price fails to hold above resistance.
➡️ Risk management with Stop-Loss at $6.380, above key resistance.
🎯 TP Target:
💎 TP1: $4.145 — strong support and profit-taking zone.
🚀 BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P Expecting a reversal and price drop!
📢 After a strong upward move, BYBIT:BERAUSDT.P is approaching a potential reversal zone. If the price fails to hold above $5.635, a decline towards $4.145 is likely.
📢 However, if buyers manage to push the price above $6.000, the short scenario may be invalidated, leading to further bullish momentum.
GOLD 1H TRADING ANALYSIS FOR THE DAY / ALL TIME HIGHDear Traders,
Please seee our updated Analysis of the New Chart (5th February)
Key Observations
All orange circles represent previously achieved targets: Reflects accurate analysis and alignment with market conditions.
In this chart
TP1 (2817.55): Successfully hit.
TP2 (2837.03): Successfully hit.
TP3 (2856.51): Pending
Resistance Levels:
2845.42
Support Levels:
Key Support: 2812.
GOLDTURN Levels:
2837 (critical weighted level).
2828 (critical weighted level).
2817 (next major support level).
2807 - 2812 (lower demand zone).
EMA5 (Red Line):
Currently above TP2 (2837), indicating ongoing bullish momentum.
EMA5's position will be critical for determining future price action.
Recommendations
Focus on EMA5 Behavior:
Bullish Case:
* If EMA5 holds above TP2 (2837) and Goldturn 2837 provides support, bullish momentum will likely push the price higher to retest and achieve TP3 (2856.51).
* If EMA5 cross and lock above 2856, it will determine further bullish target to 2869
Bearish Case:
* If EMA5 cross and lock below 2837: Indicates bearish pressure, likely pushing the price towards Goldturn 2828.
* If EMA5 crosses and locks below Goldturn 2828: Expect further decline to:
Goldturn 2817 (strong demand zone and support).
* If EMA5 crosses and locks below Goldturn 2817 : Expect further decline to:
2807 - 2812 (key structural support).
Summary of Key Points
Holding above indicates bullish momentum with potential retest of 2856.51.
Breaking below leads to bearish targets at 2823, 2817, and 2807.
We will continue to capitalize on buying dips using our identified support levels, aiming for gains of 30 to 40 pips per trade. Consistent with our previous strategy, each of our structured levels typically provides reliable bounces ranging from 20 to 40 pips, offering steady opportunities for short-term profits.
Please show us support with likes, comments, and follow our channel. Don't forget to boost our post.
The Quantum Trading Mastery
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEK1H Trading Analysis - The Quantum Trading Mastery
Hi Traders,
We successfully reached TP1, TP2, and TP3 in our previous 1H chart analysis. Below are the updated levels and targets for the coming week.
Market Overview
Gold reached an all-time high at 2,817, and is currently trading between two key levels, with a gap above 2,817 and a gap below 2,778. As seen on the chart, EMA5 crossed and locked below the KEY LEVEL of 2,796, and TP1 has just been hit. To further validate the price direction and range, we’ll monitor EMA5 at various target levels, along with the GoldTurn support levels.
What’s Next for GOLD in the 1H Timeframe?
A resistance level has formed at 2,817. EMA5 failed to cross and lock above this point, triggering a reversal. The FVG might reinforce another resistance level, pushing prices further down towards TP2 (2,761). Additionally, EMA5 crossing below MA21 and MA50 signals a bearish trend.
Key Levels
* Resistance Zones: The FVG resistance at 2,782–2,888 is expected to push prices down to TP2 (2,761).
* Support Levels: Strong support is anticipated at Gold Turn Levels around 2,778, 2,761, 2,744, and 2,740 (Retracement Range).
⚠️ Downside Risks
* If EMA5 crosses and holds below 2,778, the next target is 2,761.
* If EMA5 crosses and holds below 2,761, the downside extends toward 2,744.
* A break below 2,744 could drive prices down to 2,740 (retracement range).
📈 Bullish Path
A bounce from support levels could trigger a retest with potential upside.
* If EMA5 crosses and holds above 2,778, the next bullish target is 2,796.
* If EMA5 holds above 2,796, the upward extends to 2,807.
* A further break above 2,807 could push prices upward to 2,819.
🔹 Long-Term Outlook
Our bullish bias remains, viewing pullbacks as opportunities to buy.
Buying dips from key levels offers better risk management rather than chasing tops.
Final Thoughts
Trade with confidence and discipline—our detailed analysis ensures you're equipped to navigate market fluctuations. Stay tuned for daily updates and multi-timeframe insights.
Best regards,
📉💰 The Quantum Trading Mastery
AAVEUSDT Breakdown Imminent ? Bearish Setup AAVE/USDT perpetual contract on the 2-hour timeframe presents a descending channel formation in the. The price has been respecting the upper and lower trendlines, showing multiple rejections at both levels. Currently, the price is testing the lower boundary of the channel, and a breakdown could trigger further downside momentum.
The short setup suggests a bearish continuation if the price breaks below the lower trendline. The entry point is positioned around the 264.57 level, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high to manage risk. The take-profit zone is projected toward 221.84, aligning with the next significant support level.
Key factors to consider
The price is forming lower highs and lower lows, confirming the downtrend structure.
The red zone represents the stop-loss area, ensuring risk management in case of reversal.
The blue zone marks the potential profit-taking region, which aligns with a strong demand zone.
If a breakdown occurs with strong bearish volume, it could accelerate the move toward the target zone.
A potential retest of the broken support level could offer additional confirmation before further downside.
Traders should monitor volume and market sentiment before entering the trade, ensuring that bearish momentum supports the continuation of the trend.
IS BTC in Retracemnt
Seeing the , the trend line; three times the btc on this 9 days chart, it has retraced at difference of 15 degrees,and the number of bars are increasing with the factor of 32 as u see at the photo , I do believe , is gone be true the forth time by may :three times is not random.
Bearish trend on BTCHello everyone, BINANCE:BTCUSD
In my opinion, Bitcoin has entered a bearish trend. Considering its numerous touches on the support level I’ve drawn in the $91,000 to $92,000 range, there’s a strong possibility that this level may break, leading to lower price levels. Additionally, Bitcoin dominance has increased, indicating capital outflows from altcoins, which could suggest that the market is moving toward lower price levels.
It might be a good idea to close our long positions and gradually start opening short positions, especially in altcoins, after getting confirmation from the market.
What is your idea?
S&P 500: Bearish Momentum BuildsAs we move further into 2025, the S&P 500 continues to show signs of weakness, intensifying the bearish outlook from my last post. The Rising Channel breakdown and Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern remain dominant, with the price now trading firmly below the 50 EMA.
Attempts to reclaim the Rising Channel have failed, confirming that the long-term bullish structure is no longer in play. The neckline of the H&S pattern, previously broken, has become a strong resistance zone, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50 EMA has flipped to resistance, making it even harder for bulls to regain control.
Currently, the 200 EMA is providing critical support. If this level fails, the downside momentum could accelerate significantly, leading to much lower targets. Key levels to watch include 5,687.33, 5,600.45, and the channel projection target of 5,119.26.
Bulls will need to defend the 200 EMA and push the price back above the 50 EMA to have a chance at reversing this trend. Otherwise, the market seems poised for further downside. Let me know how you’re approaching this setup shorting, waiting for a bounce, or something else? Stay sharp and trade carefully! 🚀
Arb Analysis BINANCE:ARBUSDT BINANCE:ARBUSDT.P MEXC:ARBUSDT
Here’s a detailed analysis of the ARB/USDT (Arbitrum/USD Tether) weekly chart, including Fibonacci retracement levels, support and resistance zones, and possible price movements.
---
### **1. Key Levels**
- **0% (low)**: **0.4224**.
- **0.618 Levels**: **1.1879** and **1.1238—Fibonacci's golden pocket area, representing a strong resistance zone.
- **0.5 Level**: **1.4244—the midpoint of Fibonacci retracement, acting as a secondary resistance level.
100% (High)**: **2.4263**.
---
### **2. Price Action and Current Situation**
Current Price**: **0.8310**, sitting near a support zone.
Support Zone**: **0.812**, where price has found stability so far.
Key Resistance**: Fibonacci levels between **1.1238–1.1879**.
---
### **3. Support and Resistance Zones**
- **Support**:
-0.812: Current support level holding the price.
- **0.4224**: Strong historical support, acting as the last defense if the price drops significantly.
- **Resistance**:
1.1238–1.1879: The golden pocket zone (strong resistance where a pullback or slowdown may occur).
1.4244: Secondary resistance at the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
---
### **4. Fibonacci-Based Trading Strategy**
Buying Opportunity (Buy)**:
Consider entering near the **0.812** level if support holds.
Stop-loss: Place below **0.812**, such as at **0.750**, to limit losses.
- **Take-Profit Targets**:
First target: **1.1238–1.1879** zone.
Second target: **1.4244** level.
---
### **5. Technical Analysis and Possible Scenarios**
Bullish Scenario (Upward Movement)**:
If the price holds above **0.812**, the next move could be toward the **1.1238–1.1879** resistance zone.
A break above this zone could push the price to $**1.4244** or higher.
Bearish Scenario (Downward Movement)**:
If the price breaks below **0.812**, it might revisit the **0.4224** support level.
---
### **6. Trading Recommendations**
Current Buying Opportunity**:
Buying near **0.812** can be a good entry, considering clear stop-loss and take-profit levels.
- **Confirmations**:
RSI: Check if the price is oversold or overbought to validate the entry.
MACD: Use to confirm trend strength or weakness.
HAL Swing trading Setup - Descending TriangleChart Analysis:
1. Descending Triangle Pattern:
• The chart shows a descending triangle with lower highs (LHs) forming resistance and a horizontal support zone. This pattern typically indicates a bearish continuation, though an upside breakout can happen.
• The trendline resistance appears well-respected, with a downtrend line pushing prices lower.
2. Resistance Levels:
• There is a resistance zone marked above current price levels.
• Resistance 1 and the trendline serve as a major area where a potential pullback could be seen.
3. Support Levels:
• A clear horizontal support level is visible, which has been tested multiple times, increasing the significance of a potential breakdown.
4. RSI Indicator:
• The RSI shows a downward trend but does not appear to be in oversold territory yet. This implies room for further downward movement but also warrants watching for a potential reversal signal.
Swing Trade Setup:
1. Bearish Scenario (Preferred based on the chart):
• Entry: Consider entering a short position if the price closes below the marked support zone with strong volume.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the descending trendline resistance to mitigate risk in case of a reversal or fake breakdown.
• Target 1: Use the measured move from the widest part of the triangle to estimate the potential target level for the downside move, aiming for key support levels below (e.g., 3,200-3,000).
• Target 2: If momentum is strong, trailing stops can help capture more of the move downwards.
2.Bullish Reversal Scenario:
• Entry: If the price breaks above the descending trendline with strong volume and closes in the resistance zone, it may invalidate the bearish pattern, indicating potential bullish momentum.
• Stop Loss: Set a stop loss below the breakout candle’s low to avoid potential false breakouts.
• Target 1: Aim for key resistance levels above, including previous swing highs.
• Target 2: Monitor RSI and volume for signs of overbought conditions.
Risk Management:
• Position Sizing: Ensure your position size aligns with your risk tolerance, ideally risking no more than 1-2% of your account balance per trade.
• Monitoring Volume: Increased volume on breakdown or breakout moves strengthens conviction in the trade direction.
• Adapting to Market Conditions: Be prepared to switch to the bullish scenario if the market sentiment shifts unexpectedly.
Caution:
• False breakdowns are possible, especially if volume is low or market sentiment shifts rapidly.
• Keep an eye on broader market trends and sector performance for additional cues on stock direction.
Disclaimer : This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation. Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk, and you should be aware of your risk tolerance and investment objectives. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author of this analysis is not responsible for any financial losses you may incur based on the information provided.
gap up and trend down daily top gainerthis stock has trended down since its gap up every 15 minute lower high, and created an upturn into mid day. if it doesnt breakout above open and set a new higher low moving up to vwap, it will continue to trend toward lower band and vwma dot plot.
Major Top Forming on SPXHello Everyone, a simple analysis of the RSI and current price action appear eerily similar to the 2022 peak. During the 2022 top we had financial experts and the media claiming victory stating that this bull market will continue, however we crashed soon after. Now the SPX is currently forming a topping process, this could be done or we could go a little higher before the bear market continues. It's clear that the SPX is making new highs while NDX and IWM fail to make a new high suggesting that this is the top.
If this economy is doing so good, then why does the FED need to cut interest rates? The fed is cutting interest rates because we are either in a recession or we are very close to one. There is no such thing as a soft landing. The truth is we may already be in a recession and it wouldn't be declared until we are deep into one.
If anything we are no longer going into a recession, we are going into a depression. Do not get lulled into a false sense of security like many others during the 2000 and 2008 top.
#GBPCAD Bearish move possibilityWe can clearly see a higher timeframe bearish move and lower timeframe corrective bullish move in this pair.
Therefore, I am only interested in selling unless price manage to break structure to the upside by closing above 1H timeframe lower high.
Other bearish confluences that we have is a bearish divergence in 1H timeframe and also hidden bearish divergence in the same timeframe.
I'm not buying the Brian Niccol hype. SBUX is in trouble. NASDAQ:SBUX , NYSE:CMG , NYSE:YUM
This 24% jump in SBUX stock as a result of recent news of them hiring Brian Niccol seems a bit excessive. Sure he is a wonderful CEO and he has made significant improvements in both companies he has run, but this situation seems significantly different.
With NYSE:CMG he was able to trim the fat and cut all costs possible while creating specialized food items people were willing to pay up for like carne asada, al pastor, and guac.
The situation with NASDAQ:SBUX is very different. Their workforce demands more from their employer. It is no longer looked at as an entry-level job, people believe they are working for a company they can work up and develop in. In addition, what sets SBUX apart from other coffee shops like #Dunkindonuts and #TimHortons is the customization the customer has in the app and at the store. Every coffee chain has "specialty" and "seasonal" drinks. The only way I see he will be able to make a significant change is by automating the store as much as possible, but if he does this, will people still look at it as a local cafe they are going to sit down and enjoy a cup of coffee in? In addition, consumers are becoming more health conscious and they are likely to continue to decrease their spend on luxury-priced drinks filled with sugars. With inflation continuing to impact the consumer, a high-priced coffee is likely at the top of their cost-cutting list. With both the USA and China consumers feeling the heat, this company is likely to continue to feel the pain in both markets. If I were to guess, Niccols is going to slash projections previously made by upper management, and the stock will respond in a negative way.
With all that being said, the stock has recently shot through all of its moving averages and is now retesting the upper band of a previous negative channel. Once the Niccols hype starts to decrease, I can see this stock easily retesting the 200-day MA and 100-day MA.
GBP/USD Key Points
Tuesday’s UK Construction PMI came in above expectations at 55.3, the highest reading in more than two years
Time will tell whether traders are overly optimistic that the BOE will be able to cut rates relatively slower than its major rivals or whether more rate cuts still need to be discounted
GBP/USD’s bias remains to the downside and traders may look to sell this rally as long as rates remain below 1.2760 and the RSI holds below the 50 level.
In an eerily quiet week for UK economic data, GBP/USD has been taking its signal from developments elsewhere and general risk trends. The only notable data release this week was Tuesday’s Construction PMI, which came in above expectations at 55.3, the highest reading in more than two years.
Despite the strong reading (admittedly on a second- if not third-tier economic indicator), sterling has struggled to get into gear this week. Outside of the Swiss franc, the British pound is the weakest major currency since Sunday’s open.
This weakness has emerged despite the BOE being one of the least dovish major central banks looking forward. According to Bloomberg data, OIS traders are pricing in just 44bps of interest rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, or a bit below two 25bps rate cuts, compared to roughly 100bps (four 25bps rate cuts) and 68bps (almost three 25bps rate cuts) for the Fed and ECB respectively. Time will tell whether traders are overly optimistic that the BOE will be able to cut rates relatively slower than its major rivals or whether more rate cuts still need to be discounted, potentially keeping GBP/USD under pressure.
British Pound Technical Analysis – GBP/USD 4-Hour Chart
Turning our attention to the chart, GBP/USD remains in its 4-week bearish channel, despite the big rally during the first half of today’s US session.
One tool that traders can use to help handicap when a trend may break is the RSI indicator. In this case, the 14-period RSI on GBP/USD’s 4-hour chart has been stuck in a well-defined range between 30-50 since shortly after the bearish channel formed, signaling consistent, but not excessive, bearish momentum. Accordingly, bulls may want to watch to see if the RSI can break above the 50 level to either foreshadow or confirm a breakout in the exchange rate itself.
For now though, the bias remains to the downside and traders may look to sell this rally as long as rates remain below 1.2760 and the RSI holds below the 50 level.
-- Written by Matt Weller
Officially still in the bearmarketIt nuked down to 53K range but feeling its not over it ; it will still go below 57K.
This is pretty mid-short sell.
Do have a 50K feeling will hit even dip below 50K can happen
Im keeping it short as possible cuz i don't see any sign of buyers and bullish quite yet until the correction is finish.
Ill say the prediction won't be finish until we hit 50K even or somewhere around 40K area and i heard rumors that the bulls will get back until reach about 30k-35k
Im not a financial advisor so please don't ask if we hit a good trade; if its a stay away then don't trade and use your own analysis instead. Safe trading yall