Get started

Bearish Trend Line

Bitcoin - You haven't seen this before! (secret) You haven't seen this inverse head and shoulders pattern before! The price of bitcoin is going sideways, so I had to do more research and find something new.  30400 USDT is a profit target for the Head and Shoulders pattern, which is strong resistance. It's the measurement target of the HaS + previous symmetrical triangle point of control (POC). The 5–10-year bear market is not confirmed yet, so do not fall for it! First, the bears need to break the 17500 USDT level to confirm this scenario.  The stock market is crashing like crazy, but Bitcoin is extremely durable. So good, right? Or so bad, if you are in a short position.  As per my Elliott Wave analysis, we have started the uptrend with an impulsive structure (9 waves), which is definitely a great sign, because 5-9-13-17 waves are impulsive, while 3-7-11-15 are corrective structures. An ABC correction of the previous impulse has also been completed successfully.  Is this inverse head and shoulders pattern the last hope for the bulls? I think so. Is this the last time we can purchase bitcoin for less than $20,000 USDT? Not sci-fi.  Is a 5–10 year crypto winter possible for the crypto market? If we break below the 17500 USDT level, then yes. Is it possible to get 3000 USDT per bitcoin? If we break below the 17500 USDT level, then it's actually very possible.  Is Bitcoin a Ponzi? Yes! I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
131
0% Inflation very soon?United States Inflation Rate, Year-over-Year, 1914-2022 chart ---------------------------------------------------------------- Why do I think inflation will go down to 0%? Inflation is currently at the main trendline (established in 1920). This is a very strong resistance, and as a general rule, do not short a support or long a resistance. In other words, you don't want to speculate on inflation increasing when inflation is at its critical point. FED cares about their charts, and they also want the charts to look great. That's why they will push inflation down. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Why the Inflation Rate Matter? The inflation rate demonstrates the health of a country's economy. It is a measurement tool used by a country's central bank, economists, and government officials to gauge whether action is needed to keep an economy healthy. That's when businesses are producing, consumers are spending, and supply and demand are as close to equilibrium as possible. A healthy rate of inflation is good for both consumers and businesses. During deflation, consumers hold on to their cash because the goods will be cheaper tomorrow. Businesses lose money, cutting costs by reducing pay or employment. That happened during the subprime housing crisis. In galloping inflation, consumers spend now before prices rise tomorrow. That artificially increases demand. Businesses raise prices because they can, as inflation spirals out of control. When inflation is steady, at around 2%, the economy is more or less as stable as it can get. Consumers are buying what businesses are selling. ---------------------------------------------------------------- How is inflation measured? There are several ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the consumer price index. The CPI aggregates price data from 23,000 businesses and 80,000 consumer goods to determine how much prices have changed in a given period of time. If the CPI rises by 3% year over year, for example, then the inflation rate is 3%. The Fed, on the other hand, relies on the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). This index gives more weight to items such as healthcare costs. ---------------------------------------------------------------- How do you hedge against inflation? Because inflation causes money to lose value over time, hedging against it is an important part of any sound investing strategy. Investors use a diversified portfolio with a variety of asset types to offset inflation and ensure that the overall growth of their portfolio outpaces it. ---------------------------------------------------------------- YEAR - INFLATION RATE YOY - FED FUNDS RATE - BUSINESS CYCLE (GDP GROWTH) - EVENTS AFFECTING INFLATION 1929 0.6% NA August peak Market crash 1930 -6.4% NA Contraction (-8.5%) Smoot-Hawley 1931 -9.3% NA Contraction (-6.4%) Dust Bowl 1932 -10.3% NA Contraction (-12.9%) Hoover tax hikes 1933 0.8% NA Contraction ended in March (-1.2%) FDR's New Deal 1934 1.5% NA Expansion (10.8%) U.S. debt rose 1935 3.0% NA Expansion (8.9%) Social Security 1936 1.4% NA Expansion (12.9%) FDR tax hikes 1937 2.9% NA Expansion peaked in May (5.1%) Depression resumes 1938 -2.8% NA Contraction ended in June (-3.3%) Depression ended 1939 0.0% NA Expansion (8.0% Dust Bowl ended 1940 0.7% NA Expansion (8.8%) Defense increased 1941 9.9% NA Expansion (17.7%) Pearl Harbor 1942 9.0% NA Expansion (18.9%) Defense spending 1943 3.0% NA Expansion (17.0%) Defense spending 1944 2.3% NA Expansion (8.0%) Bretton Woods 1945 2.2% NA Feb. peak, Oct. trough (-1.0%) Truman ended WWII 1946 18.1% NA Expansion (-11.6%) Budget cuts 1947 8.8% NA Expansion (-1.1%) Cold War spending 1948 3.0% NA Nov. peak (4.1%) 1949 -2.1% NA Oct trough (-0.6%) Fair Deal, NATO 1950 5.9% NA Expansion (8.7%) Korean War 1951 6.0% NA Expansion (8.0%) 1952 0.8% NA Expansion (4.1%) 1953 0.7% NA July peak (4.7%) Eisenhower ended Korean War 1954 -0.7% 1.25% May trough (-0.6%) Dow returned to 1929 high 1955 0.4% 2.50% Expansion (7.1%) 1956 3.0% 3.00% Expansion (2.1%) 1957 2.9% 3.00% Aug. peak (2.1%) Recession 1958 1.8% 2.50% April trough (-0.7%) Recession ended 1959 1.7% 4.00% Expansion (6.9%) Fed raised rates 1960 1.4% 2.00% April peak (2.6%) Recession 1961 0.7% 2.25% Feb. trough (2.6%) JFK's deficit spending ended recession 1962 1.3% 3.00% Expansion (6.1%) 1963 1.6% 3.5% Expansion (4.4%) 1964 1.0% 3.75% Expansion (5.8%) LBJ Medicare, Medicaid 1965 1.9% 4.25% Expansion (6.5%) 1966 3.5% 5.50% Expansion (6.6%) Vietnam War 1967 3.0% 4.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1968 4.7% 6.00% Expansion (4.9%) Moon landing 1969 6.2% 9.00% Dec. peak (3.1%) Nixon took office 1970 5.6% 5.00% Nov. trough (0.2%) Recession 1971 3.3% 5.00% Expansion (3.3%) Wage-price controls 1972 3.4% 5.75% Expansion (5.3%) Stagflation 1973 8.7% 9.00% Nov. peak (5.6%) End of gold standard 1974 12.3% 8.00% Contraction (-0.5%) Watergate 1975 6.9% 4.75% March trough (-0.2%) Stop-gap monetary policy confused businesses and kept prices high 1976 4.9% 4.75% Expansion (5.4%) 1977 6.7% 6.50% Expansion (4.6%) 1978 9.0% 10.00% Expansion (5.5%) 1979 13.3% 12.00% Expansion (3.2%) 1980 12.5% 18.00% Jan. peak (-0.3%) Recession 1981 8.9% 12.00% July trough (2.5%) Reagan tax cut 1982 3.8% 8.50% November (-1.8%) Recession ended 1983 3.8% 9.25% Expansion (4.6%) Military spending 1984 3.9% 8.25% Expansion (7.2%) 1985 3.8% 7.75% Expansion (4.2%) 1986 1.1% 6.00% Expansion (3.5%) Tax cut 1987 4.4% 6.75% Expansion (3.5%) Black Monday crash 1988 4.4% 9.75% Expansion (4.2%) Fed raised rates 1989 4.6% 8.25% Expansion (3.7%) S&L Crisis 1990 6.1% 7.00% July peak (1.9%) Recession 1991 3.1% 4.00% Mar trough (-0.1%) Fed lowered rates 1992 2.9% 3.00% Expansion (3.5%) NAFTA drafted 1993 2.7% 3.00% Expansion (2.8%) Balanced Budget Act 1994 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.0%) 1995 2.5% 5.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1996 3.3% 5.25% Expansion (3.8%) Welfare reform 1997 1.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.4%) Fed raised rates 1998 1.6% 4.75% Expansion (4.5%) LTCM crisis 1999 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.8%) Glass-Steagall repealed 2000 3.4% 6.50% Expansion (4.1%) Tech bubble burst 2001 1.6% 1.75% March peak, Nov. trough (1.0%) Bush tax cut, 9/11 attacks 2002 2.4% 1.25% Expansion (1.7%) War on Terror 2003 1.9% 1.00% Expansion (2.9%) JGTRRA 2004 3.3% 2.25% Expansion (3.8%) 2005 3.4% 4.25% Expansion (3.5%) Katrina, Bankruptcy Act 2006 2.5% 5.25% Expansion (2.9%) 2007 4.1% 4.25% Dec peak (1.9%) Bank crisis 2008 0.1% 0.25% Contraction (-0.1%) Financial crisis 2009 2.7% 0.25% June trough (-2.5%) ARRA 2010 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (2.6%) ACA, Dodd-Frank Act 2011 3.0% 0.25% Expansion (1.6%) Debt ceiling crisis 2012 1.7% 0.25% Expansion (2.2%) 2013 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (1.8%) Government shutdown. Sequestration 2014 0.8% 0.25% Expansion (2.5%) QE ends 2015 0.7% 0.50% Expansion (3.1%) Deflation in oil and gas prices 2016 2.1% 0.75% Expansion (1.7%) 2017 2.1% 1.50% Expansion (2.3%) 2018 1.9% 2.50% Expansion (3.0%) 2019 2.3% 1.75% Expansion (2.2%) 2020 1.4% 0.25% Contraction (-3.4%) COVID-19 2021 7.0% 0.25% Expansion (5.9%) COVID-19 2022 8.3% 3.25% Contraction (-1.6%) As of Sept. 21. 2022 2023 2.7% (est.) 2.8% (est.) Expansion (2.2%) March 2022 projection
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
56
ADA - 47% CRASH | Buy here! I am very bearish on specific altcoins such as ADA, XRP, SOL, LUNC, SHIB and much more. Why? Because the charts are terrible and I don't even know why you should buy these overpriced altcoins that will never make you rich. Some gains are possible, but you have to focus on altcoins with low market caps, not these Giants. It's too late for the party. I am not saying these altcoins are bad. These coins are great, but the market cap is too high and whales want to buy them at a cheaper price.  Cardano is in a massive downtrend, basically in a free fall mode, and another 47% drop is likely in my opinion. There is pretty much nothing bullish on this chart; the bulls completely disappeared.  You can buy ADA at 0.1841, at least for a short-term bounce (150% - 300% profit). I will inform you about possible targets next year, so do not miss it and follow me! The price is printing a falling wedge pattern and a descending triangle. As you can see, the bears destroyed the triangle without any problem! From the Elliott Wave perspective, the market structure is insanely bearish and I expect 2 huge impulse waves downward to complete a major ABC correction. The bears are in power and I would not play with them at all cost. We need much more time to recover from this abyss. Look at my ideas about XRP and LUNC in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
60
Bitcoin - 2018 vs 2022 I know that bullish analysis on Bitcoin is extremely unpopular at this moment. I can feel it in the comment section of my several previous Bitcoin analysis. The most popular ideas on TradingView are extremely bearish, and the sentiment is very negative and fearful. Pretty much everyone is expecting 13k. In this case, I am not saying the crowd is wrong, because during a fifth impulse wave, the crowd might often be right. The situation is, of course, very different this time compared to 2018, but I have seen a lot of these comparison analyses on Bitcoin, so let's do it. The triangle in 2022 is really weird. It's probably not even a triangle. It looks like an inverse head and shoulders with a steep neckline or a double bottom reversal pattern. Triangles usually appear just before the end of the trend or at the end of the trend. These patterns are, of course, very tricky. There is a possibility of a last scam wick to the downside to 17,600-17,900 before the price explodes to the upside! But I hope the bulls will defend 17611 USDT because it's very important from the Elliott Wave perspective. I hope the bulls will prevent Bitcoin from falling because I don't want a 5-year bear market, I think no one wants it in the crypto community. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
154
Terra LUNC - 47% drop is in-play! Maybe there is nothing that can stop an upcoming dump on LUNC at all. The bears are really strong here and we are currently 60% down from the previous swing high. As you can see, the price is breaking down from the local descending triangle and heading downward to the abyss. Also, we have a descending parallel channel , and we can possibly touch the bottom of the channel! If you think LUNC is a great coin, then you can buy LUNC at 0.00013, which is a reasonable place to buy because there is a great confluence. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, the uptrend from September 26 to October 2 was just a 2 wave corrective move. This is definitely not what you want to see as a bull. You can be sure I will also be bullish on LUNC, but first I want to see some bullish price action, and this is definitely not a bullish price action! But on the other side, this coin is a perfect opportunity for the bears to short this coin on the futures market. Look at my idea about XRP in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
50
AMD's False Breakout above Short-Term TrendlinePrimary Chart: Down Trendline from November 2021 to Present and Several Anchored VWAPs Recent False Breakout above Short-Term Trendline After hitting a new low on September 29, 2022, AMD had a brief a rally off the lows . This led to a brief break above a shorter down trendline from August 4, 2022 peaks (light blue down trendline) Now, AMD looks to have faked out the bulls and bottom pickers again. Before the close, AMD's price sunk all the way back to the trendline, perhaps just below depending on how exactly it is drawn, after seeming to push decisively above it. After hours it sunk well below that trendline again with preliminary earnings results that were well under expectations. Notice the daily candle from October 6, 2022. Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. It has a long upper shadow that pushes above a key level, but the shadow being the only part of the candle above the key level by the close of the price bar. For another example for purposes of comparison, consider AMC's most recent short squeeze (which was smaller than many others in the series of short squeezes it has seen). Here, AMC formed a extremely large Pinocchio bar that effectively signaled the exhaustion and reversal that ensued. That one worked exactly as expected. A Pinocchio price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Essentially, a Pinocchio bar is a failed breakdown or failed breakout that occurs within a single price bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Failed upside breakouts, such as the one shown here on AMD's chart, lock in unwary bulls with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's technical-analysis reference books, he explains that the "false break" that develops is "indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. Just because price is in a severe downtrend does not mean that prices can behave irrationally. How many sharp and powerful bear rallies have occurred so far in this market, especially in beaten down laggards? For example, price could go down and retest the lows and then rally up to high $70s. Or it could make new lows, and then rally hard back up to a key Fibonacci level, such as the .382 or .618. Until price can start exceeding major swing highs and lows, and its down trendline, it's not a great candidate for bull-trend trading or investing. Additional Comments and Considerations Not long ago, stocks like AMD and NVDA were some of the hottest technology stocks traded in the world. They had become veritable market leaders not just in their innovative technology products but also in price leadership. In terms of relative strength, AMD and NVDA both spent plenty of time at the forefront of one of the most powerful bull markets in history (funded by extra liquidity and easy-money policies of central banks) from 2020-2021. But then the cracks started to appear in what otherwise appeared to be some of the most formidable stocks on the planet. Major indices began to roll over not long afterwards. AMD has not gone unscathed. Its downtrend is not difficult to see with the clearly demarcated lower highs and lower lows. On the Primary Chart, note the orange down trendline that has contained price since November 2021 peaks. VWAPs confirm the view. The dark blue VWAP is anchored to the all-time high from November 30, 2021. It's hard to imagine that there was quite a lot of liquidity on that day, with a number of buyers paying that price at the very top, at $164.46. It can be a viable strategy to strategically buy stocks that have been hitting new 52-week highs showing extraordinary relative strength, but this time, buying at the all time high didn't work out so well for some. How many times have traders and investors started eagerly buying the dip in this bear? The chart tells the tale. Quite a few major swing lows, with candles having a nice long lower shadow, appear AMD's YTD chart. Each rally may have made a nice trade for nimble countertrend traders, but for investors hoping they caught the low of a pullback, or even better a multi-year low, disappointment ensued. AMD's days of heroic market leadership along with NVDA continue to be a distant memory as continues to fall to new lows. Should anyone be a knife catcher and hope to have a multi-bagger in 10 years? That's a question for your financial advisor or your own due diligence if you're fundamentally oriented. But from a technical perspective, a lot has to change with regard to the structure before it's safe to buy. Jesse Livermore had a fantastic adage that applies well to this situation, which was recently published by @InvestMate in an Editor's Pick here on TV: “Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.” Credit and thanks to @InvestMate for reminding everyone of these timeless truths to help in trading and understanding markets.
NASDAQ:AMDShort
by SquishTrade
6
XRP - 80% decline, be prepared! An 80% drop is not sci-fi. But at the end of the day, you can buy cheap XRP at 0.1 USDT and hold it to 589 USDT, as the Simpsons predicted.  I am very bearish on XRP because the bears are in full control and I will tell you why in this analysis.  The price is trending in a massive descending parallel channel (very bad) and the first thing we want to see is a break of the channel to think about buying XRP. XRP has been in a bear market since 2017. It has been 5 years and we didn't even hit a new all-time high during the 2020–2021 bull market.  As you can see on this chart, we have broken down out of the symmetrical triangle, which is an extremely bearish signal. You don't want to see triangles at the top of the uptrend as a bull.  As per my Elliott Wave analysis, this whole structure is totally incomplete and I am missing an impulse wave dawnward. We have strong support at 0.1013 USDT, where the market should take stop losses below this swing low before continuing higher to new all-time highs.  It's very dangerous to buy XRP at this moment because this mini uptrend might already be complete.  But after all, I think XRP will experience a massive bull market, maybe in 2023-2025, to new all-time highs because it looks very solid on the monthly scale. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
58
S&P500 - What if the bottom is in? I am not saying the bottom is in, but what if the bottom is in? In this analysis, I will tell you why it is possible! Everyone is extremely bearish on the stock market. There is a record of purchasing PUT options from retail investors and usually the majority is wrong. But in this case, the majority could be right. We don't know. As you can see, we have a huge parallel channel on the daily chart, and I would love to see a breakout above the channel. But from the Elliott Wave perspective, an ABC correction (ZigZag) can be considered as completed with an extended A wave. If you are an Elliott Wave trader, you see a nice impulse wave as a C wave. If we take a look at the RSI indicator, we can see a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. This gives us hope for at least a bullish bounce to the upside. The 200 moving average is powerful on the weekly and daily chart. This MA is considered a strong support/resistance by huge institutions and hedge funds together with the 0.618 FIB retracement. Interest rates are rising, which is, of course, very bad for the stock market. I know this and that's why I am not buying stocks, because I am a trader, not an investor, even though I have bitcoins for the long term. So, has the stock market reached its bottom? I would say maybe a 30% probability. Look at my idea about Bitcoin in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
31
BTC.D - The Alt Season is around the corner! Don't miss it. The Alt Season is around the corner, I can see it on this chart! It's not a question of if it will happen, but when it will happen.  The lighting network is not supported by major exchanges because they don't want it and it's not in their business plan (as per the statement). This is, at this moment, very positive for altcoins.  It's really important to pick the right altcoins because we are not in 2017 when even scam coins pump.  We have been moving sideways on this chart for a long time, but nothing lasts forever. I expect a breakdown of this bearish rectangle pattern very soon!  As per my Elliott Wave analysis, this structure is very bearish and we should continue down with another impulse wave. From an EW standpoint, an ABC correction has been completed, so there is probably nothing that can stop this downtrend.  ALT SEASON usually happens when the BTC.D goes down. It's usually during bull markets. When we are in a bear market, everyone is selling their altcoins and buying bitcoin instead.  The 0.618 FIB extension from wave (1) to wave (2) is the next target, but I think we can go even lower later.  Make sure to pick the right altcoins. I expect tremendous gains for selected altcoins. You can find them in the related section down below.  For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
64
BTC Likely to Test June 2022 Lows SoonToday saw volatile, whipsawing price action in both cryptos and equity indices. BTC was no exception. As discussed in an article on September 19, 2022 at the start of this week (see link in the Primary Chart above), the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) has held their September 2022 meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. This meeting concluded today with a presser at 2:00 p.m. EST in the US. The hawkish monetary policy that has been fostered by the FOMC has put pressure on risk assets for much of this year. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell clearly stated that monetary policy would continue to remain restrictive and tight for quite some time until inflation comes down toward its 2% target. The Federal Reserve, along with other central banks around the globe, have been attempting to tackle sticky inflation. Inflation has been the number one problem in developed countries from a macroeconomic perspective, and it has been running at high levels not seen in decades. Though some argue that inflation may have peaked, and there are good arguments for this conclusion, it remains sticky and well above central banks' targets, which in the US is 2%. The Primary Chart above links to other recent posts on BTC where key levels are discussed in more detail than in this post, especially the downtrend line and key Fibonacci levels. After the FOMC presser, it appears that BTC is heading quickly to test June 2022 lows. BTC failed in its breakout attempts over the summer as to key levels. This is discussed in the prior posts linked in the Primary Chart above. In the most recent post regarding levels to watch this week, .786 retracement of the summer rally was identified as a key one to watch. Price chopped around this level with two failed breakout attempts. These failed breakouts are similar to the failed breakouts as to other key Fibonacci levels as well discussed in the linked recent posts. Supplementary Chart A: Failed Breakouts This Week over .786 Retracement Level Given these failed breakouts, combined with the failure on September 13, 2022, at the major downtrend line resistance, BTC is likely headed to test June 2022 lows soon. First it must violate the lows from earlier this week at 18,271. A successful violation of this level will lead directly to June 2022 lows. After that, some of the Fibonacci Channel lines can be considered as subsequent targets. Please also see the update by @Tradersweekly posted in the link below, which covers volume and some additional resistance levels based on multi-year price peaks. This article is highly recommended for a complementary but slightly different perspective on BTCUSD. ________________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for this week. Also note that countertrend trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. Countertrend trades are lower probability trades as well. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
2
NDX / QQQ Supports That May Spark the Next Bear RallyPrimary Chart: 11-Month Downtrend Lines, Support at June and September 2022 Lows Forming Right-Angled Triangle, Fibonacci Levels The Nasdaq 100 ( NASDAQ:NDX or NASDAQ:QQQ ) has been in a sharp downtrend nearly all year with intermittent bear rallies that have been sharp and powerful. A week ago, despite price having already fallen significantly from August 16, 2022 peaks, this author identified the likelihood that the downtrend would continue even further to short-term targets at $269-$270. (More aggressive targets in a range from $254 to $267 were also identified in the September 2022 post, but those have not been reached yet.) Now that price has fallen almost exactly to the June 2022 lows, a support line across those lows can be drawn—and this support level intersects with the downward trendlines (there are two alternative downward trendlines on the Primary Chart). When these two support levels intersect with the downward trendlines, a right-angled triangle is formed. This is also known as a descending triangle. Because this is a multi-month triangle, it may not break easily; however, this bear market has broken conventional expectations repeatedly, so anything is possible. But price could make more than one attempt to break the lower edge of the triangle before succeeding. The next chart shows one such possibility. Note that there are many possibilities, and this remains just a single hypothetical price path that reflects the concept that horizontal line of a multi-month right-angled triangle might not break on the first attempt as lesser supports can. Supplementary Chart A: Right-Angled Triangle with Hypothetical Price Path Involving Whipsaw Break Before a Successful Break Later in the Year This hypothetical possibility does not make the chart bullish. It just recognizes that price action can work to confound bears and bulls alike. And it acknowledges that price can reach oversold extremes right at critical multi-month supports, which may require two or more attempts to break. Whipsaws are not uncommon on both intraday and longer-term time frames. Even though the NDX / QQQ remains within a strong downtrend, the sharp rallies this past year have shown that even the bears have to be ready for anything. Bears anticipating a straight line lower can get annihilated. The lower edge of this right-angled triangle is also right at multi-year support identified in the above-referenced post published September 22, 2022. Like a multi-month triangle, multi-year support may not break on the first attempt. Or if it does break in the next week, the first break may end up being a whipsaw break, that leads to price recovering back above the support (and lower edge of the triangle) to rally or chop further until the final break, which could be weeks or months away. Supplementary Chart B: Multi-Year Support Level (Blue Rectangle) The .618 retracement level is another level of interest that could hold and spark another bear rally. This level is the yellow line on the next chart, and it lies at $258 on QQQ. Another Fibonacci level has confluence with the .618 R, and lies just beneath it (teal blue). Supplementary Chart C: Two Circles Identifying Target Zones That Could Spark the Next Bear Rally ________________________________________ Author's Comments: (1) Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. (2) This technical-analysis view does not constitute a trade recommendation or trade setup. Instead, it attempts to offer technical commentary that describes and analyzes price levels, trends, price action, or the broader technical environment as of the publication date. Technical-analysis commentary does not equate to trade setups or recommendations. Within a given price environment, traders bear responsibility for their own trading strategy, risk tolerance, and time frame, and for any due diligence associated with such trades. (3) This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice, e.g., when price violates a key level of invalidation for a particular view. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. (4) To the extent countertrend price moves are discussed, consider that countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, remains higher risk and lower probability even for the most experienced traders and investors. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified / licensed financial adviser or other financial or investment professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SquishTrade
6
Bitcoin - No one is talking about this! There are currently 3 options with a high probability of happening:  1) Bitcoin will crash very soon, so after that we can start an alt-season on altcoins after the crash to 13k (best option). 2) Bitcoin will go sideways for another 3 months and create a descending triangle, which will be the most boring time (you don't want it). 3) Bitcoin will go slightly up to the yellow trendline to catch all traders in a trap and then it will crash (disgusting scenario). 4) The bottom is in and Bitcoin will reach 200 000 USDT next year (no chance). Bitcoin is below all possible trendlines on the macro scale, so the bearish pressure is extremely high at this moment! Pretty much no one is talking about this parallel channel on the LOG scale. Also, no one is talking about the yellow trendline. But I would not be surprised at all if we break this parallel channel, because at this point, everyone will turn super bullish and after that, Bitcoin will drop like a rock. To complete an impulse structure from an Elliott Wave perspective, the price needs to print another impulse sub-wave to the downside. At this point, if we break 32 000 USDT, I can say that the bottom is in, which I would love to absolutely! If you haven't heard about the QNT (quant) altcoin, it's time to buy! For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
90
The big short - S&P 500! The situation for the stock market is really terrible. The fundamentals have never been worse in the last decade and it looks like we are going to drop even lower.  We have probably started a brand new major uptrend in interest rates that can reach 15% - 20% in the near future. Also, government bonds are rising, which is deadly for the stock market.  Let's be honest, it's not the best time to be in the markets if you are an investor. I believe there is an opportunity for swing traders and also day traders.  There is a possibility of a 10-year sideways bear market for the whole stock market, as happened in 2000 - 2009 or 1968 - 1980. The price is moving in a descending broadening wedge pattern and there is more than enough space to go lower from the current price.  Regarding my Elliott Wave analysis, we have completed 2 first waves (A, B) and we are currently in a C wave if we want to stay bullish. It can also be a third wave of the impulse (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) as a bearish scenario.  I expect the 2700 level to be a strong support, which is also the FIB 1.618 extension from wave A -> B. There is also a confluence with the POC level of an expanding triangle from 2018 - 2020. Look at my ideas about GOLD and Bitcoin in the related section down below. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
53
📉✌ETH 1H Short Position : Risky✌📈BINANCE:ETHUSDT COINBASE:ETHUSD Hi traders, first take a look at my previous analysis and positions. From now on by the time the price reaches the yellow lines, you can open a short position in two or three steps. If the price falls and reaches the risk-free level, you can risk-free your position. TP1-2-3-4 are on the chart. The optimum stop-loss is above the determined lines. Please share ideas and leave a comment, let me know what's your idea. CrazyS✌
Short
by CrazyS
2
📉✌BTC 1H Short Position : Risky✌📈BINANCE:BTCUSDT COINBASE:BTCUSD Hi traders, first take a look at my previous analysis and positions. by the time the price is in the middle of the yellow lines, you can open a short position in two or three steps. If the price falls and reaches the risk-free level, you can risk-free your position. TP1-2-3-4 are on the chart. The optimum stop-loss is above the determined lines. Please share ideas and leave a comment, let me know what's your idea. CrazyS✌
Short
by CrazyS
6
Terra LUNC | Last chance to sell before it crashes again! LUNC now offers an amazing opportunity to sell your coins before it crashes again, which is really great! Also, you can enter a short position on the futures market to profit from this upcoming move to the downside. This chart is definitely not bullish. I see a big bearish downtrend that is in progress. The price is clearly moving in the parallel descending channel on the 4h chart, so theoretically we can still go up a little bit. According to my Elliott Wave analysis, the first impulse wave has finished and we are in an ABC correction followed by another impulse to the downside. My target is 0.00012000 USDT, then maybe we can start a brand new uptrend to new all-time highs. It's possible, but I am not buying anything named LUNA, LUNA2 or LUNC. In my opinion, the volatility will go down and the price will go down slowly. Forget about LUNC, you are too late for the bull party. If you are a lover, buy it lower. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
65
Bitcoin - Uptrend before a massive crash! The trend is clearly descending and there is absolutely no sign of a trend reversal at this moment. The bears are extremely strong and I don't see any hope for a greater bullish price action. However, we can definitely experience a relief rally back to 21300 USDT and even break the trendline temporarily, where everyone can get caught like a deer in the headlight? On this daily chart, we can spot a descending triangle, and we can go sideways for another month and consolidate in this descending triangle. I would not be surprised at all if this happens. After the price breaks the triangle, I expect 12500 USDT as a potential reversal point. I think this crash will be very fast and will be followed by a huge bullish candle, so you want to set your limit orders to catch this upcoming flash crash. November and December can be very bullish months for Bitcoin, so you don't want to miss it at all cost. The good news is that the stock market and gold are already crashing while Bitcoin is relatively strong, to my surprise. On the 4h chart, Ethereum also shows a sign of a temporary relief uptrend, as does XRP and other altcoins. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
58
Ripple XRP - Bull trap! Don't fall for this pump, important! This pump on XRP is a bull trap to wipe out short traders before we continue lower to 0.1-0.2 USDT. Of course, you can trade XRP on the 1h chart and profit from this pump, but this analysis is on the 3D chart. There is still room to go to the upside, so for short-term traders it's definitely an opportunity, but it's very dangerous in my opinion because this correction might already be complete. The Bears have a fantastic opportunity to enter a short position at the top of the parallel channel + the POC of the previous symmetrical triangle. It is a common thing to re-test the symmetrical triangle at the apex point. The trend is still very bearish on the higher timeframes, so this is just a temporary uptrend, which I would never long, because the trend is your friend. I don't know, maybe it is. XRP has been in a bear market since 2017. It has been 5 years and we didn't even hit a new all-time high during the 2020–2021 bull market. We have strong support at 0.1 USDT, where we can also take stop losses below this swing low before continuing higher. As per my Elliott Wave analysis, this whole structure is totally incomplete and I am missing an impulse wave dawnward. But after all, I think XRP will experience a massive bull market, maybe in 2023-2025, to new all-time highs because it looks very solid on the monthly scale. For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
45
DOGE - Brutal sleeping giant! Huge falling wedge The doges are still sleeping and we need more time to start a new uptrend, much more time than I expected previously due to fundamental changes in global economy. I belieave we will have a very nice rally after we finish this falling wedge on the daily / weekly timeframe! But for now, the bears are still powerful. The falling wedge is really beautiful, I like it! Unfortunately we have only 2 touches on the downward trendline and that's not enough in my opinion. According to my Elliott Wave analysis, we need to complete this impulse wave with another impulse to the downside because this structure is incomplete and I don't really see it as an ABC correction. We don't know where the fifth wave is going to end, I think we can touch the downward trendline 2x more times with a divergence on the daily chart. I think DOGE is a great altcoin and definitely will have a place on the ladder of coinmarketcap, because it's a very popular coin and people like it. Elon Musk is also a fan.  For more analysis, hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
26