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BTC Outlook 2023-2025Fresh new data and more information of significant factors brings me to a new deliberate prediction. The corrective wave that we are in is not a usual corrective wave. It could make twice as long as the two previous corrective waves in 2014 and 2018, an ABC move from a larger degree of Elliot Wave (Could be a wave 4 from the whole BTC movement since 2009). Currently we are in a bear market rally that potentially will bring BTC up to 25k, from there the corrective move will continue to the bottom which potentially at 8k in early 2024. I still believe potential Fed pivot will be around Q4 2023-Q1 2024 and inflation at that time will probably sits around 2-3%. 3% is good enough to restart the Quantitative Easing. Due to the longer corrective wave, 4th BTC Halving in Q2 2024 will occur in the 1st wave, not the same with the last three halvings that occured in the 3rd wave. This also means that we are approximately one year away from the beginning of a new bull market that potentially will make BTC going up to 140k or 1600% from 8k. Expect more business entities to collapse, more lay-offs and rising unemployment which also means rising in crime rates. Take care and survive!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by derahmanov
heres a weekly level i would be comfortable longim really not interested in longer term buy situations in aapl or the like until we start confirming the broader trend reversal. im sensing that the general motivation for this follow up bounce is the corrective wave that similarly happened in the last monthly retracement to the upside. the bear market resumed then, and it could now as well. if bulls are going to use this trend to thier advantage i see that the only option is selling, and that goes along with the conjecture that we will see lower prices at aome point in the future "so why not now".
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by cerealpatterns
Retrace complete/Further downI kept seeing everyone thinks bitcoin just bottomed.. ( no not quite yet) this what happens people get too greedy. As bear market still going and still on the move, Feds are still increasing terminal rates and interest rates because the inflation still remained high and not cooling down enough; big happens the Feds will get aggressive and too aggressive until ceiling hits and see economy will break as fundamental Recession is coming sometime around 2023. Now let’s talk about bitcoin. The retrace is complete nearly hit 20K my analysis had been correct but I might be or be wrong is the retrace isn’t over. As over 1.4 trillion had been wiped out value from the market; bitcoin haven’t reached the potential bottomed yet.. 21-20K has stronger resistance zones but should expect the huge rejection; if I’m wrong then We will see double top form or if should continue the retrace to make the crash sight. For the bottomed 14-16K is not the bottom; don’t fall for the Trap. Because things going on the economy and Feds still working on bringing the inflation down and Fundamental Recession is coming sometime around this year. Should expect Rate cuts sometime in late 2023 or Middle 4th Quarter in 2023 so final leg down can happen. Even if your profit still in green I highly suggest to sell it off until we hit the Top; remember the bear market isn’t over..even tho could be a long term consolidation could happen so please be very careful we still have a lot more to go. Experts sees bitcoin will bottom around 12K but mort said 11-10K zone even bigger surprises can go even lower around $5000,$5,500. As I see still 12-10K as a bitcoin bottom.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by JoyBoyVegae
1
SP500 | SPY - Bottom for the bearmarketIf we look at the rising trendline from 2008 you can see that we have a strong support there around 320 SPY . The fibonachis line up pretty well with that too. We also have strong support around that level from the coronadays. If you measure in M2 supply you can clearly see that we should atleast go down to 2000 levels, low as 2008 may be a overreaction. With the current market condition, high rates + high inflation + energy crisis + credit card debt at ATH I believe we should go lower down. RSI does also point that we should go lower if we are going into a similiar bearmarket as 00 and 08. The drop from top to bottom will be lower than 00 and 08 but there is many more people invested in the market today than it was at that time, which will make a difference. We also dropped 2 years ago during covid, and that was a massive drop, due to that drop we may not need to drop as much as 50% this time. During the coming earnings this Q1, We will see many companies with lower earnings . Due to lower spending from customers, expensive goods and a smaller workforce. 320 SPY may be the bottom and that is where I will start buy. The road to that bottom could vary, The potential for more upside is still likely but if so we need to break the decending trendline which will be very hard to break. NFA DYOR Good Luck /aFinancialMind
AMEX:SPYShort
by WealthNode
right here, right meowin a perfect world we would be able to say that this is the start of a broader market recovery with an almost absolute degree of certainty. this is the real world however, and we all have to keep in the backs of our minds that things could still go very badly for longs. that being said bulls do appear to be keeping control of this bounce, and shorts look like theyre ready to start hitting pretty major stoplosses starting a massive squeeze. if we stay over this area, and steer all signals upward im banking on hitting those upper levels, and if we dont... then we dont. we are probably headed back to the lows at the very least, and possibly much lower if we cant maintain this momentum. however we are quite near confirmation of the first weekly higher low in more than a year. that is major.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by cerealpatterns
rising wedge semiconductor longshort semiconductors are on the verge of breaking down, and basically if we stay over 12.20 soxl im aiming for daily gap close, or near 12.86 . if we break this ascending tightening range to the downside and more or less double top 4hr resisting from top of envelope, around 12.30s or lower, im looking toward 15 minutes demand zone in low 11s maybe 11.30. short squeeze in semiconductors, or failed bull breakout. even if longs win, im selling rallies on the daily by buying soxs on dips to weekly lows, or new weekly lows (keeping in mind the s&p can still resist from 4000 or slightly higher/nvda can sell off $160, 162.5, 165).
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
5
BTCThis is slowly becoming my primary count, Weekly chart can continue to push here while DXY finds a ST bottom, but as we can see my 3rd wave has yet to test the 1.618% around $15k. Also the measured move breakdown from the recent triangle hits around $12,800. If my DXY analysis is correct and we get $110 ST pump to the dxy BTC should finish the 3rd wave anywhere between $10K to $15K before starting wave 4 to $24K and then ultimately finishing this bear market around $7,500 EOY.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Big_Mike716
2
ETH - Lesser of the Two Crypto BearsCrypto winter is here. Is this the darkest before dawn? Or the start of a long artic winter ahead? In such nebulous times, directional bets are rife with risks. In contrast, spread trades vastly lowers risk while enabling limited but durable returns. Set against the current macro backdrop and landscape shift in the industry, this case study will argue that Ether exhibits greater price resilience relative to Bitcoin prices. Accordingly, a long position in CME Micro Ether Futures combined with a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures provides an opportunity to extract yield in a bearish market. Spread entry at 0.0721 with a target at 0.0793 delivers a reward to risk ratio of 1.88 with returns of $1,660. A stop loss of 0.0684 will limit losses from the spread trade to $880. A RESILIENT ETHER? Crypto winter plus recession fears in major economies will keep crypto prices subdued with continuing downside pressure. After a successful massive upgrade last year, the Ethereum blockchain reduced its carbon footprint. Next big enhancement is the Shanghai upgrade expected in March. This upgrade enables withdrawal of staked Ether representing ~13% of the entire supply. Staked Ether withdrawal will be gradual. Even though this might increase selling pressure, it will be less so relative to what Bitcoin faces as described below. GBTC LINKED BITCOIN SELLING PRESSURE Last November, Genesis (a major crypto lender) halted withdrawals citing a $1 billion shortfall. Genesis is looking to avoid bankruptcy filing. Its bankruptcy could spell contagion in crypto markets accelerating selling pressure. Genesis’ parent company Digital Currency Group ("DCG") operates the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Grayscale’s flagship product GBTC has suffered sharp sell-off resulting in a staggering 45% discount to NAV presently. Grayscale’s attempt to convert GBTC to a spot BTC ETF allows them to rebalance their holdings to narrow the discount. But their application to transform into an ETF has been denied by the SEC. Grayscale is appealing against the SEC’s decision in court with an outcome anticipated this quarter. If the ruling goes against them, Grayscale plans to offload up to 20% of GBTC shares leading to sales of 128,000 bitcoins which will send its prices tanking. BITCOIN MARKET CYCLES – WILL HISTORY REPEAT? PERHAPS NOT. Crypto winter is not new. Previous winter cycles of extended periods of subdued price action were followed by massive bull rally. Hope springs eternal but this time could be different. Bitcoin as an asset class will face recessionary environment for the first time ever. Unlike in 2018, long term holders (>1Y) have not moved their holdings this time around but hold massive losses on their portfolios down some 50% to 80% which could aggravate bitcoin downside pressures when selling begins. POOR FUNDAMENTALS BUT NEUTRAL TECHNICAL SIGNALS IN BITCOIN Bitcoin’s long-term moving average has served as a strong resistance and continues to be in a downtrend. Falling realised volatility points to a sideways market with limited liquidity and leverage. Declining market volume vindicates that. Orange Fibonacci retracement level which proved to be strong resistance also coincides with the pivot level P could be challenged once the Grayscale-SEC court ruling is out later this quarter. ETHER TECHNICALS POINT TO A SIDEWAYS MARKET DESPITE OUTPERFORMANCE OVER BITCOIN Ether has remained highly correlated with Bitcoin for the past two months. The long-term (100-day) moving average has served as a weak resistance as Ether broke through this level during November. The long-term moving average has become flat over the past two months in sharp contrast to a bearish one for Bitcoin. In the previous period of low HV (October to November), Ether outperformed Bitcoin by a stunning 22%. Stochastic for both Bitcoin and Ether point to oversold levels. OPTIONS MARKET FAVORS ETHER OVER BITCOIN Bitcoin has a put/call ratio of 2.5 on the CME in sharp distinction to Ether’s put/call ratio of only 0.8. On Deribit markets, put call for Ether is two-times lower relative to Bitcoin. Options traders clearly favor Ether over Bitcoin. TRADE SETUP A spread position of long CME Micro Ether Futures and short CME Micro Bitcoin futures. Spread trades require notional values of each leg to be equal. Each contract of CME Micro Ether Futures and CME Micro Bitcoin Futures both expiring in Feb 2023 provides exposure to 0.1 Ether ($120) and 0.1 Bitcoin ($1,665), respectively. Fourteen (14) lots of long positions in CME Micro Ether Futures will provide a notional value of $1,680 to offset one lot of CME Micro Bitcoin Futures which has notional $1,665. Entry: 0.0721 Target: 0.0793 Stop Loss: 0.0684 Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.88 Profit at Target: $1,660 Loss at Stop Loss: $880 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. This material has been published for general education and circulation only. It does not offer or solicit to buy or sell and does not address specific investment or risk management objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any person. Advice should be sought from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of any investment or risk management product before investing or adopting any investment or hedging strategies. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. All examples used in this workshop are hypothetical and are used for explanation purposes only. Contents in this material is not investment advice and/or may or may not be the results of actual market experience. Mint Finance does not endorse or shall not be liable for the content of information provided by third parties. Use of and/or reliance on such information is entirely at the reader’s own risk. 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CME:ETH1!Long
by mintdotfinance
13
1871-2022 S&P 500 Secular Bull vs. Bear Markets SPX SPY I wanted to share this chart, as a couple of things stood out when thinking about past bull & bear secular market cycles vs. the current secular bull market that we’ve been in for the last 10+ years since the 08-09’ GFC (Great Financial Crisis). First , for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or Wall Street marketing) as there are plenty of signals, cyclical trends, leading indicators, etc., that give investors clues as to what likely lies ahead — based on probabilities. And while nobody can be 100% certain as to the exact pathway of markets, given the macro cross-currents that are in front of us — we can 100% say that we have been & still are in a secular bull market. Until this trend changes, the “crash” that many were calling for in 22’, if not expecting for 23’ could possibly take longer to play out than many realize when looking at previous bull vs. bear secular market cycles. Second , looking at the attached chart(s), this is also why timing and duration matter. If you are entering retirement toward the latter part of a secular bull market, it might be best to reduce risk & shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Examples of this include leading up The Great Depression, 1950’s post-WWII boom prior to the 1970’s Stagflation Era, & into the end of the Tech Boom of the .com era leading into 2001. On the flip side, if you are in your saving years (20’s-30’s+), then it is during these secular bear markets that you really want to be accumulating & building your asset base for the next bull market phase that is likely ahead in the coming years as the trend higher always begins during the bear market bottoming process (see dotted black lines on charts). Third , looking at the current cycle & zooming in on the charts from yearly (large picture) to monthly chart — we can see that we are still technically in a secular bull market. And considering the previous two major bull market cycles of the 1950/60’s (18 years) & 1980’s up until the early 2000’s (19 years), one could make a case that we are only about halfway through this current bull cycle (9 years). Do I think this is absolutely the case? Personally , I do not as there are issues regarding demographics, de-globalization, inflation/stagflation/deflation, boomers retiring en-masse, etc., that will likely put further pressure on asset markets throughout this decade. What do you think about this historical analysis? Are we going to break this secular bull market cycle & enter a secular new bear market? Or, are are just in a corrective phase within the broader bull market cycle? CHART NOTE: Recessions = Shaded Red Areas Chart #1 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Returns Chart Data via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low: Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. Chart #2 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Secular Highs & Lows via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #3 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression to Trend via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #4 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression Channel via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #5 (Monthly): *1920-1972* (Great Depression & Post-WWII) 📊 *Note that during the Great Depression/WWII, as Ray Dalio has pointed out in his recent book "The Changing World Order" this was a prolonged period of negative to very low returns.* 📖 www.economicprinciples.org Chart #6 (Monthly): *1972-2022* (70’s Stagflation, 80’s "Greed is Good" markets & 90’s dot.com Boom, 08’ GFC, & 2010’s QE 1/2/3, 20’ Covid Crash, & 21-22’ Inflation/Interest Rate Shock Correction) 📊 *Note that we are still in a secular bull market uptrend, when looking at the monthly charts. Until this trend breaks down, there is market support for a continuation of this trend.* Pre-Covid High = Red Dotted Line ($3,393.52) Post-Covid High = Green Dotted Line ($4,816.62) Chart #6 (Monthly): *1871-2022* (MACD) 📊
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
3
Dave I know how you feel about the LOG button but........If you just turn it off it really makes this down trend correlates with the fibs and the counting to the number 5 thing x3. If you turn on the LOG it makes it seem like this down trend is over only time will tell. I am invested in the idea of this going down so it will naturally rip up in the coming days. Remember to push the spaceship and comment it takes support from fellow traders to make me the #1 chartologist in all of the WWW
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by jedisdead