BTCUSD - Downward Trend ContinuesIn May 2022, the major structure at 29K was broken and a 1 month trading range formed at the support level until it was finally broken to the downside.
By measuring the distance from the all-time high (ATH) to 29K and applying it to the downwards target, we can calculate a potential target of around 12K.
Using the Fibonacci retracement tool from the start of the bull market to the end of it also gives us a target of $11651 (Fib. 0.618), which aligns with the previous calculation.
Currently, we have lost the ATH from 2017 at around 20K as support and are trading at $16600.
The next interesting area to watch for is the ATH from 2019 at $13870.
Given the current global circumstances, it is likely that the bear market will continue in 2023, providing ample time for DCA.
Bearmarket
ETH - The calm before the storm!Here's a quick look at the daily ETH chart. As we can see, the price has been oscillating within the bigger symmetrical triangle. The price will likely break below the triangle with the current market sentiment.
There's an unfilled Fair Value Gap from 770$ to 870$. These gaps will likely get filled in this bear market since the DXY is expected to rally from its current level - when the DXY goes up, the BTC price will go down!
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
nasdaq rebound on pauseim into the idea of a bull pullback from the lows in the nasdaq, but its clear that the hourly trend is reversing back to bear to match the overall downtrend. this should continue, but i wouldnt be surprised to find the broader market bouncing again, but until that happens im back in with my short nasdaq position; long sqqq. im thinking top of envelope, and then we revisit that sss supply zone.
BTC outlook - Bearish Trend continuesHere's a quick look at the 3-day BTC chart. As we can see, the price has been oscillating within the bigger descending triangle. If DXY (Dollar Index) keeps rising, we should expect the price of BTC to go further down!
There are some unfilled Fair value gaps between 11k and 12k. Also, there is an unfilled CME gap at 9.7k! These gaps tend to get filled at some point! These gaps will likely get filled in this bear market since the DXY is expected to rally from its current level - when the DXY goes up, the BTC price will go down!
I firmly believe the bottom will be close to the 10k area. We have yet to see the last capitulation, IMO, yet! Trade Safe!
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will fall as well. Trade safe!
did we just start a huge move in vix?uvxy is in full breakout mode. if indices keep hitting new week lows we will probably see new 12 month lows. a good indication of this is a lot of 52 week lows hitting in stocks, and defensive sectors rotating out (UTSL staying green but hitting resistance/visiting 4hr lows), while $tick goes negative. vix has been coiled for this move for a long time, and it looks like its going to monthly highs. my guess is over $9!
AUD/CAD: UpdateAs I follow this trade from the past week. This it's the quickly update that I knew very well one thing. As before I said that AUD/CAD will climb, thing that happen when I told you in the past week, what as result, climb but I don't cached the opportunity. But analyzing from the H1 and H2 timeframe, we're in the correction that the market structure speak us that a bearish movement it's developing now!!!
So, as I put a sell order place in the $0.9142 CAD. I'm bearish from this point and then, I hope that AUD/CAD continue down to $0.90 CAD. What for now I change and fix my target from this point. What this mean if AUD/CAD reach my target, I will get 137 pips in this trade.
So, the entry doesn't like bad and definitely, that was a pretty good entry price. So, the only that I can to watching it's one thing that when analyzing the timeframe, it's very necessary to draw the order block in the smart zone to sell, that will help us to find up a perfect entry. This trade it's appear that was almost perfect.
Also guys, what I draw in purple big circle, it's to recall in your trading style that this it's the starting of the bear market trap, as during my trading time, I see this pattern in a lot case of study that this it's the beginning of the bear market. And I hope that this case of study help you in your career.
hate to say i told you soso instead ill just say that my favorite inverse index fund is in full breakout mode! nothing is stopping this from running away with everyones presents, so if you have a gift i would share it now. that being said we are at the top of nadaraya watson envelope, and the nasdaq is in extreme oversold territory, so im expecting a bounce followed by continued melt down meaning up, up and away with our little go-go gadget short machine; sqqq.
Vertical Option Spreads for a bear market- a handy tool to haveEducational purposes only: if the bear market continues, one tool Im keeping available is bear vertical spreads. I dont want to go straight short the market, and buying high valuation is a no for me. So bear call spread might be worth a shot while waiting for bullish opportunities.
TRXUSDT TECHNICAL ANALYSISTron $TRX has lost approximately 66% value since May 2021 till now. So many coin has lost over 90% and the TRON was trying to keep value stronger. We haven't got any buy signal from our robo advisor @EngineeringRobo yet but MA 20 & 50 has changed direction at the moment and it give us first buy signal. If the candle keep going stay green, first of all we may earn approximately 6% and our target might be our down trend-line. We are still on the bear market and if we use leverage, we may double our money.
Let's follow up our chart closely and do not forget to follow me.
"NFA"
The Exit - How to take profitsToday’s content:
1. Why each exit is within 3 months?
2. Why I turn from investing to trading the US markets since Jan 2022 and onwards
If you have been following, today’s is the 6th tutorial in our Trading Series:
1. “The buy strategy”
2. “The sell strategy”
3. “Developing long & short-term view”
4. “Choosing between the time frame”
5. “The entry”
6. “The exit”
Refer to the links below or check the previous 5 videos.
E-Mini Nasdaq Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.25 point = $5
1 point = $20
10 points = $200
100 points = $2,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
energy in a pickleno really, this thing is set to roar. big rigs, big pigs, young hogs and motor fog. letterr rrrrrrip! were down near the bottom of the envelope, were way oversold, and the sectir is acting defensively in rotation with a bear market. id like to revisit the top of this rectangle and then dump again 🤷
Bearish trend continues for BTCHere's a quick look at the 6 hr. BTC chart. A couple of days ago, the price attempted a breakout to the upside from the bear flag but couldn't close above it. This led to a semi-heavy move to the downside, which broke the bear flag to the downside instead!
If the DXY (dollar index) keeps rising, we should expect BTC to continue its move down. And if DXY retraces to lower levels, then BTC may see some upside. Make sure to keep an eye on DXY!
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BTC dictates the market. If BTC falls, then Alts will drop as well. Trade safe!
BTC: WILL MANAGE TO HOLD THIS LEGENDARY SUPPORT LINE??Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support it with a like and follow.
Welcome to this important weekly BTC update.
As 2022 is about to end, If you still manage to survive in this bear market and read this update then congrats you almost make it, and soon this bear market pain will be over.
We have been in a bear market for more than one year. And the biggest question of this year is "WHERE IS THE BOTTOM OF THIS BEAR MARKET?" So in this analysis, I'm trying to give you some hints and my thoughts regarding this.
As you see in the chart, we have a very crucial support line at around the $15k level. BTC manage to hold this trend line for the last 5 years. Every time price touched this trendline, we got a very good bounce. So there is a very high chance that history repeats this time also.
In the worst case, if we got any weekly close below $15k then be ready for a $10k-12k level but as long as we hold this legendary trendline support bottom is here.
What do you guys think about this?
Share your thoughts in the comment section.
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Thank You!
Bitcoin past & futureI discovered some major periods.
Mark this: 371 day and 553 days. Plusminus couple days or weeks. When was the first halving, we have got new significant peak after 371 day, and a second peak at 553 day. It happened again in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.
The bearmarket started after halving 553 days, and it was 476 day long two times (2015,2018). There was an accumulation zone, which was 258-406 long two times.
So if I count these periods, the descent slowly ends, and we jump to the accumulation zone, which will starts in March 2023.
After the next halving i count a rapid rising between 100k-300k. If the history repeats itself, we will got new peak in April 2025 and October 2025.
Fingers crossed.
long term bond yields still bear, but go toward bottomim in favor of smashind long term bond yield curve, and inverting the front years more for obvious reasons, namely boj inflation/interest rate planning for example. the bottom is obviously not here for TLT, but i would look towards these boxes in this order.