#BITCOIN WEEKLY CANDLESTICK's ... LOOK PROMISINGAt least for a relief bounce to horizontal resistance
Taking things step by step
Level by level
Before we can call a reversal of course.
Bullish Divergence on the momentum structure as well
Bearmarket
Nvidia - Consolidation Before -50% Drop!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is preparing for the correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Nvidia is still creating pretty clear market structure and price action and therefore there is no reason to change direction or opinion. Following the previous cycles, a correction of roughly -55% is likely and Nvidia's recent consolidation is a first strong sign of bearish weakness.
Levels to watch: $120. $60
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Bitcoin Market State - September 2024Everything has been moving pretty much as described in my last update half a year ago, however the projection for the top has changed.
It appears as though Bitcoin shall not break through 100k, but will instead front-run it at the 80k region. This is a deviation from my previous estimate, and is due to new data in the last 6 months.
Looking at the economic situation, we have finally started getting rate-cuts. This was one of the criteria for confirming that we are about to enter a recession-induced bear market in the near future.
High point rate-cuts by the Fed are a sign of policy panic, and reaction to a failing economy. The effects of these policy changes take many months to trickle down, therefore 2025 is looking like a losing position with reinforcement far away.
Only when the rates finally get below 1%, do I expect to see liquidity injections into the market.
Be aware, that this would be Bitcoin's first recession, hence the extended downtrend in both price and time.
The timeline remains the same for the top projection (November 2024 - March 2025), and the bear market target remains the same too (Sub 10k prices in 2026).
This is not financial advice, and is against popular opinion.
-Hawk
$SPX & $NQ Recession AlertBased 100% on the charts I believe we have begun a bear market. I provide several charts supporting my claim and time will tell if I am right or wrong. I provide a clear target and invalidation point.
Nothing I am saying is financial advice and this is all my opinion. You will lose your money following others opinions.
I have opened $2500 worth of calls on NASDAQ:SQQQ & AMEX:SPXU
Nasdaq - Here we finally go!TVC:NDQ is finally rejecting the resistance and creating the anticipated bearish correction.
Let me just put it that way: The correction was 100% anticipated and you can definitely then trade accordingly. Just a couple of weeks ago the Nasdaq retested a resistance which has been pushing price lower for 14 years - a correction was very likely. So far the Nasdaq is dropping significantly but I don't think that the current correction will actually be over soon...
Levels to watch: $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Russell 2000 fractal points to 40-60% dropRussell 2000 currently creating fractal.
Points to possible 40-60% downside.
This fractal creates:
- A top
- A bear flag
- A failed break to the upside
- A large break down after the failed break up
This fractal occurred in 2008 and 2020.
Both instances of recessionary bear markets.
This could play out similarly if we get a recession.
Price target is around 95 -100.
Trend is your Friend. #NKE is a prime example...fade the bullish moves
look for continuation down
that is going to be the money maker
shorting into resistance
not longing on reversals
Nikkei Hits Bear Market after BoJ HikeAfter a cautious approach away from its ultra-easy monetary setting, the Bank of Japan bolstered its normalization efforts last week. Policymakers raised rates to around 0.25% after the March watershed exit from sub-zero levels, pointed to more moves ahead and also announced sizable reduction in bond purchases.
This action signaled tightening resolve and also accelerated the Yen rebound, threatening to unravel the two key pillars of the stock markets’ rally to record highs. Along with broader recession fears after the US jobs report, JPN225 slumps into a bear market as it loses more than 20% for July’s all-time high and could be in for further losses.
On the other hand, the BoJ is still in accommodative territory and warned that could increase its bond buying if needed, while the broader market rout could push it back into a more conservative approach. Furthermore the rate differential is still huge and the carry trade may persist. From a technical standpoint the RSI points to the most oversold conditions in years and that could help JPN225 rebound out of bear territory and towards a cluster of hurdles that starts with the 200Days EMA, but significant sentiment improvement needed.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SPY - AI ViewThis auto view shows a significant drop to SPY 2250 levels. Good idea to raise cash and sit back waiting for the dust to settle. But have been building a short position at the 5500 level.
S&P500 - The beginning of the bear market?SP:SPX potentially created a top and is starting to head lower for the next months.
We have patterns, cycles and market structure and if everything is lining up nicely, there is a high chance you will be right. The S&P500 is currently retesting a major multi-year resistance trendling, is starting to shift bearish on the smaller timeframes and just rallied +50% without any noticeable correction. In a couple of months, we will trade at lower levels!
Levels to watch: $5.500, $4.500
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Officially still in the bearmarketIt nuked down to 53K range but feeling its not over it ; it will still go below 57K.
This is pretty mid-short sell.
Do have a 50K feeling will hit even dip below 50K can happen
Im keeping it short as possible cuz i don't see any sign of buyers and bullish quite yet until the correction is finish.
Ill say the prediction won't be finish until we hit 50K even or somewhere around 40K area and i heard rumors that the bulls will get back until reach about 30k-35k
Im not a financial advisor so please don't ask if we hit a good trade; if its a stay away then don't trade and use your own analysis instead. Safe trading yall
Bitcoin - Your Ultimate Guide to Mastering the MarketOverview:
The Bitcoin market is on the brink of another explosive surge. Understanding the technical patterns and market movements is crucial to positioning yourself for incredible gains. Let’s delve into a comprehensive analysis based on historical data and predictive patterns to map out the future of Bitcoin.
Historical Context:
The previous Bitcoin bull market, spanning 1060 days, saw an astounding 2000% surge, from a low of $3,156 to an all-time high of $69,137. This cycle completed a textbook 5-wave Elliott Wave structure, giving us invaluable insights into the current market dynamics.
Current Bull Market Insights:
The current bull market commenced on November 21, 2022, at $15,476. We’ve completed wave 3 as of March 14, 2024, with a new all-time high of $73,777. Now, we find ourselves in wave 4, a critical phase that demands our attention.
Wave 4 Analysis:
Wave 2 correction lasted 150 days, a duration that sets a precedent for wave 4. Assuming similar symmetry, wave 4 is expected to bottom out on August 11, 2024. This wave is unfolding as an ABC corrective pattern, a common and predictable formation in Elliott Wave Theory.
While it's possible that the ABC correction could be complete, if another drop arises to the $50K region, it will present an incredible opportunity for a long position.
Key Levels and Fibonacci Retracements:
Fibonacci Levels: Wave 4 typically retraces to Fibonacci levels of 0.382, 0.5, or 0.618. For wave 3, a 0.5 retracement aligns at the $50,000 level, a psychological and technical support.
Anchored VWAP: Drawing from the start of wave 2, the VWAP aligns perfectly at around $50.7K, reinforcing this level as a robust support.
Previous Bear Market Fibonacci: The 0.618 retracement of the previous bear market further consolidates the importance of the $50K support level.
Pitchfork Analysis:
Utilizing the pitchfork tool from the last bull market, we identify the golden pocket support at the $50K level. This tool has proven effective for long-term price monitoring and shows the potential for Bitcoin to reach $100K by September/October 2025, where the golden pocket resistance area lies.
Strategic Plan:
Monitor the $50K Level: Anticipate a significant demand at this crucial support level.
Wave 5 Target: A Fibonacci extension of 1.618 projects wave 5 to peak around $100K, possibly by next year’s September/October.
Altcoin Opportunities: With altcoins experiencing drops of 70-90%, they are at a substantial discount, presenting lucrative investment opportunities.
Action Plan:
Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): Begin accumulating Bitcoin and select altcoins. The $GETTEX:52K-$50K range is an ideal buying zone.
Stay Vigilant: The next few months are pivotal. Monitor price actions and market sentiment closely.
Position Yourself for Success: Great things are coming. Believe in the plan and prepare for the next wave of the bull market.
Conclusion:
The current bearish trend is merely a precursor to an impending bull run. Now is the time to pay attention, make informed decisions and position yourself strategically in the market. With the right approach, the rewards can be extraordinary. Let this technical analysis be your guide to navigating and mastering the Bitcoin market. Stay focused, stay prepared and get ready for the ride of a lifetime.
Happy trading folks! =)
Comprehensive Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) with Inflation-AdjustedThis analysis examines BTC's price action, both actual and inflation-adjusted, using key technical indicators and Fibonacci retracement levels on the weekly chart. The goal is to provide insights into potential future movements and the overall trend.
Key Observations from the Chart
Inflation-Adjusted Price and Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Inflation-Adjusted Price:
The red line represents the BTC price adjusted for inflation, providing a more realistic view of its historical value.
This adjusted price closely aligns with BTC's actual price, suggesting its relevance in assessing historical trends.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
0.236 Level ($31,867.68)
0.382 Level ($41,045.73)
0.5 Level ($48,463.61)
0.618 Level ($55,881.49)
0.786 Level ($66,442.54)
1 Level ($79,895.31)
These levels are critical for identifying potential support and resistance zones.
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA):
Fast MA (9-week): Blue line
Slow MA (21-week): Red line
Current Status: The fast MA is above the slow MA, indicating an ongoing uptrend, though recent price action shows a potential weakening of this trend.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
Shows the momentum of the price movement.
Current Status: The MACD histogram indicates weakening bullish momentum but has not yet turned bearish.
Enhanced Indicators:
Large Traders Index (LTI): Blue line indicating activity of large traders.
Normalized MACD: Green line indicating the normalized MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) is a variation of the traditional MACD indicator that has been adjusted or scaled to fit within a specific range, often to make it easier to compare with other indicators or to standardize the values for analysis.
Key Levels and Their Implications
Support and Resistance Levels
Current Price Action:
Resistance at $55,881.49 (0.618 Fibonacci level): A critical level that BTC needs to break for continued bullish momentum.
Support at $48,463.61 (0.5 Fibonacci level): Immediate support level that needs to hold to prevent further decline.
Key Support Zone at $31,867.68 (0.236 Fibonacci level): Significant support that could be tested if the current support fails.
Potential Future Movements
Bullish Scenario
Break Above $55,881.49:
If BTC breaks above this level, it could potentially move towards the $66,442.54 and eventually aim for $79,895.31.
Indicators like MACD turning bullish and increased activity by large traders would support this scenario.
Sustained Uptrend:
The moving averages need to maintain the current crossover, and the RSI should remain neutral or move towards overbought territory.
Bearish Scenario
Break Below $48,463.61:
If BTC fails to hold this support, it might find support at $41,045.73 or even $31,867.68.
Indicators turning bearish, such as MACD crossing below the signal line, would reinforce this scenario.
Potential for Further Downside:
If the price action breaks key support levels and volatility increases, a more prolonged correction could occur.
Conclusion
Summary of Key Insights
Current Trend: BTC is in an uptrend, with the fast MA above the slow MA, though recent price action suggests caution.
Key Levels: Immediate resistance at $55,881.49 and support at $48,463.61. Critical support at $31,867.68.
Indicators: MACD, volatility measures, and trader indices provide additional insights into momentum and market sentiment.
Future Outlook
Bullish Continuation: Watch for a break above $55,881.49 with supporting indicators.
Bearish Risk: Monitor support at $48,463.61, with potential downside to $41,045.73 or $31,867.68 if broken.
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Feedbacks are welcome!
BTC at the bottom of week range!Bitcoin hit the bottom of the range ✅ Alarm was right pointing for range bottom at ~58k, as BTC dipped to 58414 on that move.
Now the main question - is it over? Shortly - if you are a respected TA, you can't say so yet. Why? Because week candle is only developing, so we won't have any clarity till next week close at least. Day candle shown nice bearish impulse with long tail, which can be taken as a first step of a bounce pattern, but to confirm it we'll need another 1-2 Day candle to close. Which brings us back to the idea, that this week it's all about guessing, but no mindful conclusions.
Week close above ~60622-59600 will increase chances for a bounce from range bottom. Close below will keep momentum to dip lower. That is the only thing we can say now for sure.
Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 61840 / 62440 / 63260 / 64920
below - 60235 / 59820 / 59460 / 58040
Lines on the chart:
🔸67577 - May close
🔸63195 - week open
🔸60651 - April close
🔸59112 - March low
🔸56537 - May low
🔸53245 - Nov'21 low
Trend: D 🔽 W 🔼 M 🔼
🤑 F&G: 30 < 51 < 53 < 63 < 64
#Bitcoin regression trend analysis to determine end of bear..with extended trendlines
we don't need to be heros's as speculators
Patience and letting price action CONFIRM a trend change is CRUCIAL
....
Encouraging signs nonetheless!
SHILLER P/E RATIO ... Went Higher than 1929!Only Twice in 150 Years of US Equities
has the Shiller PE ratio gone higher than the 1929 TOP
2000 & 2022
The Shiller PE is useful as it smooths out the PE ratio over a 10 year average ...
very useful for forecasting.
The financial markets have been perverted & all know this.
The #FED can only print and save your Assets
after a financial crisis appears on the scene
and when #DEFLATION takes hold.
They're are actively rugging the markets
The FED always creates volatile markets the exact opposite of their mandate
As this is what their shareholder actually want.
A little perspective on Bear Markets. What people don't realize.They can last years, and take over a decade to recover from.
Scary right?
Proper portfolio, and trading management is essential for not only survival, but also being able to thrive in that environment.
Bear Market or Short-term Sell-Off?The March CPI was reported at 3.5%, higher than expected on April 10. This development triggered a sharp decline in the stock market, with a total drop of 8.5% from the recent high.
Could this downward movement signal the onset of a major bear market, or is this sell-off simply a retracement, setting the stage for the bull market to resume?
We will explore this question by studying the following hypothesis:
• A rising CPI is a leading indicator of a bear market.
• A declining CPI is a leading indicator of a bull market.
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
AAPL in Risk of Bear MarketApple is having a tough period with weakening China demand, lack of growth and innovation, AI lag, regulatory challenges that threaten its lucrative walled garden business model and other headwinds. These challenges weigh on the stock, which shed more than 10% in the first quarter. Along with Tesla, they were the only stocks to fall, among the Magnificent Seven.
The situation deteriorated further in April, as AAPL hit the lowest levels in a year and is now in risk of a bear market . Moves below $160 would mean losses of 20% and more from the December record high, which is generally viewed as the threshold for a bear market.
On the other hand Apple is still one of the most valuable companies in the world and investors are unlikely to give up on it and there are reasons for optimism. iPhone sales have shown resilience and the smartphone market is poised for a rebound. Its CEO appears determined to not let China fall, but also looks to India, which has significant untapped potential. Apple also launched the Vision Pro AR headset this year, looking for an early entry to a nascent market, while AI progress could be showcased soon.
AAPL is having a good week and although we could see further rebound, the upside contains multiple roadblocks. Closes above the EMA200 would be required for the downside momentum to halt.
The stocks trajectory will be influenced by the upcoming earnings report, which is due on May 2. Top and bottom lines, China & India performance, guidance and AI progress, will be some of the focal points.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Major clues in USD indicate Bear market Late summer/ early fallHi guys. When trading its always important to learn/educate to find an edge on the markets.
There are so many charts you can access to analyze/compare, etc. Its known that many ticker symbols can be used in certain ways to help understand markets in a deeper way.
The DXY or U.S. Dollar Index is an asset that i use to assess Risk mentality.
So keeping it simple:
If dollar RISES -> it indicates a RISK OFF mentality -> so people leave risky investments to enter the safety that is cash
If dollar FALLS in price -> it indicates a RISK ON mentality -> this means peoplpe are leaving the safety of the dollar to take risk in other investments.
Im bringing you this analysis to assess the health of the broader markets and whether or not we are at risk of a down fall/ recession especially with tensions significantly rising in the Middle east.
So jumping right in.
I got 3 Red resistance trend lines drawn.
This trendline, in part reflects Bull runs in broader markets.
2 from past history
1 which is associated with our current Price action.
As you can see, this Resistance begins at the TOP price of DXY. Price is then supressed from a certain amount of time, before a breakout back ABOVE.
Everytime we have broken the resistance trendline. The dollar starts a massive Bull run when measured:
The 1st one lasted about 700 days
The 2nd one lasted about 460 days.
So the question i asked was how does this relate to the S&P and other markets.
Does the breakout above resistance from the start cause drops in all markets?
When i looked, i was surprised. Fall in other markets does NOT happen right off the breakout.
In fact, when i measured after the resistance breakouts it takes roughly 133-189 days before S&P begins a BEAR market.
As indicated by black lines.
1st example it took 133 days after breakout
2nd example took 189 days after breakout.
We have recently broken out ABOVE the red resistance trendline.
So if you consider previous history, our next Bear market i believe will begin sometime late Summer or early Fall.
Now remember previous history does not have to repeat. It just helps us find patterns and consider things.
It is however possible, if actual war does breakout. Things may change, as it would be considered a Black swan event.
However, until it happens this is the likely scenario in my OPINION. Our current movements i think is just a pullback before continuing higher.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on DXY in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
Nvidia - Entering a bear market!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long term rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2021 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. As we are speaking Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel and we might see a short term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all time high.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
