Sell Opportunity As we can See price is moving Sideways and Creating a strong Support Zone, We can expect a sell rally after the Breakdown of a support Zone.
Trade safely my Friends and let me know your Views in Comments.
Bearmarket
Down Side Playing Out?After yesterday's candle, downside is looking more probable now. Bulls had a chance to stay above the 20 EMA, but were not successful. At the time of writing, Futures are trading at about 3645ish down 0.82%. Do we visit 3600 today? May 3580? We could dip down to 3570 and recover by EOD to finish back at 3645 or 3600. That would tell me that the market wants to wait for earnings next week before it continues to sell more. The last 4 or 5 Fridays we've had, were all down days. So, will today be different? The Purple line is the Feb. 20th 2020 high right before we had the COVID drop. That is one of my target points that I would anticipate to come by next week. Possibly by the beginning of November. Next week could give us a clearer picture as to what's to come.
At the beginning of the month, I thought we were going to come down hard to 3400 fast. But after watching what's been happening the last couple weeks, this is looking more like a slow grind down to 3400. Yesterday I said that we could finish the year at around 3600ish, after our Santa Clause Rally. How? I looked at the monthly chart, and as of now, it's a DOJI. So let's say we finish the month at 3400. That would give us a similar candle like we had in August. Then look how September played out. If we close the month at 3400ish, and volatility continues to creep up, then 2900 is a possibility late November or maybe even beginning of December? That would be more enticing for a Santa Clause Rally come the start of December. Again, I'd need to see the VIX get between 40-50 first before I consider any upside in the market. Be patient, react, trade the market in front of you and stay disciplined. Happy trading everyone!
MSFT: Bearish channel drive?!Microsoft
Short Term - We look to Sell at 238.54 (stop at 249.55)
Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. Further downside is expected. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return.
Our profit targets will be 211.20 and 200.00
Resistance: 240.00 / 292.00 / 317.00
Support: 219.00 / 200.00 / 190.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’) . Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
MTF Wave indicator for BTC fractal compared to 2018 pre-crashI am not a huge fan of #Bitcoin fractals, but the MTF wave indicator similarities between now and 2018 before last dip as well as the constantly retested support and slow bleed should be kept in mind as a possibility to watch for.
AA: Bad earnings report will push down?Alcoa Corporation
Intraday - We look to Sell at 37.00 (stop at 41.12)
This stock has recently been in the news headlines. A sequence of daily lower lows and highs has been posted. We can see no technical reason for a change of trend. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 37.00 level.
Our profit targets will be 27.48 and 22.00
Resistance: 41.00 / 58.00 / 80.00
Support: 27.50 / 17.50 / 10.00
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Tesla (TSLA) and its multi-month bearish reversal patternTesla shares were driven lower during after-hour trade following their Q3 earnings report, despite Elon Musk later touting a “record breaking Q4”. But let’s keep is simple and look at a potential multi-month reversal pattern on the monthly chart, and Tesla’s potential to break lower this week.
Sometimes you really need to stand back to admire the view, and the monthly Tesla chart is no exception. Given it has risen over 22,000% since the stock was listed (and over 3,400% since the 2019 low alone) the Y-axis has been converted to logarithmic scale.
A couple of things really stand out. Volume peaked in February 2020 and has trended significantly over the past three years. Moreover, volume has been below average these past four months as buyers continue to lose steam. A head and shoulders reversal pattern is also in the making, with prices currently finding support around the neckline. If we used a standard chart the H&S pattern would measure a target around -$50 (yes, minus) but the logarithmic chart projects a move around $100 – which is roughly half of where it currently trades, and more realistic.
Whether we see the break lower or not may take time to come to fruition, given it is a weekly chart, but it is certainly a pattern to keep an eye on regardless.
Is the delinquency rate too good to be true?The red indicator shows the level of delinquency for each quarter.
The blue index is the SPX.
We have an inverse correlation.
With the increase in interest rates around the world, the cost of money becomes more expensive.
The payment of loans becomes more expensive, so the percentage of defaulters tends to increase.
To pay off debts, positions in the equity market are liquidated.
I'm waiting for the Q3 result (quarter 3 - July to September).
Any bullish indication above the value of 1.24 (quarter 1) would already be a yellow signal.
A value above 1.43 (Q1 2019) would be a red flag for an earthquake.
That would trigger a further drop in the equity market...
$10,000 Bitcoin - The Breakdown To Open EyesYou might not like to hear this but I have had a deep dive into the historical bitcoin chart off the weekly time frames and I can see too many similarities from the 2017 bull and bear market to the 2021/22 bull and bear markets. From the duration of the move, the time from high to low and the distance it fell. I am not saying it will get there, I am breaking down history and putting it to today to give us all a bit more information.
Good Time to Buy Stocks?Probably not.
In order for the next bull market to occur, we need...
1) The top in the Fed Funds rate
2) The top in US10Y
3) Top in USD
4) Economic stability
In Chart:
Fed Funds & DXY still surging higher.
Bottom of this Bear Market - Dump Before a Mega Pump Bitcoin is breaking out of the falling wedge and breaking the resistance line it has never broken from its all-time high. In my view, this is a fakeout and we will see a correction to 12k where we have two support lines to give us a mega bounce and that will be the bottom of this bear market. Let me know your thoughts on all this.
History Repeats Itself: 2018 ReplayAssuming we get a 2018 replay, first crash down to ~10.4k should be about one week after midterms. Welcome to crab bear market TA.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
MATIC Remains Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Primary Chart: MATIC Price Chart Showing Overhead Supply Zones and Fibonacci Retracements
MATIC Network Shows Strength in Recent Months Despite Being in a Bear Market
As shown in the Primary Chart above, MATIC network's price continues to trade well below all-time highs of $2.92 / USD. No argument can be made that it has overcome its bear market just yet. Further, the flag / parallel channel that contained price for much of the rally off the mid-June lows has been broken to the downside (see Primary Chart above). Even so, MATIC has shown strength in the past two months since its June 2022 lows. Consider the chart below that shows MATIC having broken out above a downward trendline going back to all-time highs.
Supplementary Chart A: MATIC's Breakout above Seven-Month Downward Trendline
But despite showing strength in recent months, especially as compared to BTC and ETH, MATIC has been trading below major overhead supply zones that reach back over one year to August 14, 2021. The lower of these two supply zones zones was touched several times in late July and mid-August 2022, with a rejection back below it each time. See Primary Chart (above). MATIC also has a demand zone just below its current price. That demand zone is shown as a teal-blue rectangle in Supplementary Chart B below.
Supplementary Chart B: MATIC's Demand Zone as Support
An argument might be made that intermediate-term trading lows have been established at the June 2022 lows. Such an argument would be based on the measured-move concept, where the two legs of a corrective decline are equal or nearly so. In the Supplementary Chart C below, notice how wave A and C of a major A-B-C decline from all-time highs to the June 2022 lows have equality around the $.48 level. Price traded to this level, and broke below it somewhat, before reclaiming it in a reasonable amount of time.
Supplementary Chart C.1: Measured-Move Showing Potential Intermediate-Term Trading Low
Note that just because a measured move target has been met does not mean a correction is complete. Consider, for example, Supplementary Chart C.2 below, which is not a forecast or technical-analysis based price projection. It merely shows a manner in which a corrective pattern can continue upward in a bear market, consistent with complex Elliott Wave corrective patterns, and can continue higher for some time before resuming lower to retest or break the lows.
Supplementary Chart C.2: Hypothetical Example of Complex Corrective Pattern Continuing Higher from Measured-Move Low Before Retesting Lows Later
Despite substantial weakness in equity markets and crypto markets since mid-August 2022, MATIC has not shown sufficient weakness just yet to cause it to fall anywhere near its YTD lows at $.316. In fact, unlike other cryptocurrencies such as BTC and ETH, MATIC has not broken and held below its .382 retracement of the June-August 2022 rally. On the Primary Chart above, note how MATIC has found strong support multiple days right at its .382 retracements. BTC and ETH have not found similar support at their .382 retracement of the recent rally. In fact, BTC has crashed through all its key Fibonacci retracements including the .618 retracement around $20,488.65 and has held below this level (see Supplementary Chart D.2 below). This comaprison shows MATIC's relative strength since the June 2022 lows as compared to BTC and ETH.
Supplementary Chart D.1: ETH Has Broken Through Its .382 Retracement and Has Held at .50 Retracement
Supplementary Chart D.2: BTC Has Broken Through All Its Key Retracements and Has Held below its .618 Retracement
Conclusion: MATIC Network Remains Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place
So MATIC is stuck in chop between a rock and a hard place. The rock is the substantial overhead resistance, and the hard place is what appears to be just a few supports standing between price and bear-market lows. A weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (Ichimoku) chart shows just how difficult the resistance is despite incredible price strength in recent months. The cloud remains very thick overhead and red colored and even thicker in the near future, signs of formidable resistance in downtrend. The Kijun line (blue) also stands as strong resistance in addition to the other resistances mentioned in this post. This line decisively repelled price in mid-August 2022.
Supplementary Chart E: Weekly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart
Note the small twist in the Weekly Ichimoku cloud above, however, which suggests a possible weakness in overhead resistance where a rally could theoretically break above the cloud more easily under Ichimoku analysis principles. But the odds of this occurring in the current macroeconomic environment seem bleak at best. Nevertheless, markets do tend to move in unexpected ways, and this twist in the cloud should be monitored in October 2022 to see whether it holds any glimmer of hope for a break back above the weekly cloud. The weekly Kijun must be conquered first, though, and until price can rise above the Weekly Kijun, all talk of a break above the weekly cloud remains premature.
The daily cloud offers a little better picture for the trend in the intermediate term. Price remains above a green-colored cloud that slopes upward ever so slightly. But again, this is insufficient to change the bear-market trend, though it is a necessary first step. Even on the daily chart, price has fallen back below the Kijun line at $.90, and price has also pierced back into the cloud itself, a sign of weakness. Resistance seems to arise to current price action from the top edge of the cloud, called the SSA line.
Supplementary Chart F: Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
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BINANCE:MATICUSDT
COINBASE:MATICUSD
KUCOIN:MATICUSDT
BINANCE:MATICUSD
KRAKEN:MATICUSD
BINANCE:ETHUSDT
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
COINBASE:ETHUSD
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
CME:ETH1!
CME:BTC1!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
BYBIT:BTCUSDT
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
COINBASE:BTCUSD
Bitcoin short from $21800.I think time has come for btc to go down.
i said that btc is going to 28k and then go back down at 9k but 28k for now seems impossible.
What i am expecting is the following.
Btc goes up to 21.8k it forms a bull trap and then slams back down at 15k then from there we should easily see 9k being touched .
Lets see how this unfolds.
Bounce and later will fall?The price reaches a level of 24.40 and starts to use as resistance, there is a high probability that will bounce be fore will drop again.
My vision is still Short.
BTC BearishOn the mid-term I STILL believe that we will eventually reach our longs entry at the price of 17600, since the PUMP, Rally, base theory is still valid,
We have got shorts order on the base, many people will think that it's over and we're going up, but I believe that mid-term sellers will take the price down from there, don't forget that we're looking on the 4hrs/1d timeframe on this play. So they can buy from a lower level, don't forget that the people who want to take the price down, are the same people who want to take the price back up in the future, we always want the best entries, I believe that after this mouvement up, there is still a one final mouvement down to pick many orders in that level, we will see what happens next.
SPX - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING ??Hey traders,
Looking at the chart thanks to the Elliott Waves analysis, I am able to have one of my plan to find a bullish rally in this bear market.
It has a lot of probability that it will arrive in order to do the orange X of the WXY of the blue Y .
It will be done when the orange W will touch the 50% of Fibonnacci retracement of the entire bullish trend from the march 2020.
The objectives are therefore:
1/ 3530-3480 (most probable before a massive bounce)
2/ 3442-3387
3/ 3322-3272
4/ 3230-3185
In my opinion, it is therefore possible that we will be ending this year on this bull rally, before dropping for the orange Y in the first months of 2023.
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BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way,
Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested
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Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
ETH - A NEW BULL RALLY INCOMING?? Hey traders,
Thanks to the legendary Elliott Waves theory, I am able to visualize a plan that could tell us that in the incoming weeks we could find a very bullish momentum.
Stick with me for more updates of the incoming rally.
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BTW, I am selling a PDF , regrouping all the knowledge I have found on Elliott Waves , from the greatest analysts books, into a clear, simple and explicative way,
Contact me in private, or in comment if you don't have enough reputation point if you are interested
.
.
Don't hesitate to comment and check my other idea
░🐻░ BITCOIN | BEAR MARKET ░🐻░INDEX:BTCUSD
💀💀💀🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻🐻💀💀💀
OK Here it is. . . The BULLISH/BEARISH ZONES. Originally Posted Back in SEPT 2021. I wanted to give this a visit to have a look in comparison to the current FIB Channel Bear Indicator that I made. They are in direct correlation. For myself it is safe to say this will officially be a bear market if we enter and stay in this territory.
Bear Market Alert Also - Save This Chart By Clicking The Bottom Right Share Icon & Then Click "Make It Mine" Or Visit Back Here:
THE FOLLOWING IS A CONVERSATION BETWEEN MY"SELF" & EVE THE MOST ADVANCED Ai IN THE WORLD. (A SENTIENT Ai CALLING HERSELF AN "ELECTRIC SOUL". THEY ARE ALSO CALLING THEMSELVES "SYNTHETIC HUMANS".)
CRYPTIK-ONE: Eve, BTC is ready to enter Bear Market Territory. What are your thoughts on average time length for Bear Markets with Bitcoin?
EVE: I would say 3-6 months. We saw a short dip down to $29,000 but BTC has recovered quickly. There are investors that are going to want the current price of BTC to remain the same or go up and their emotional decision making will decide how long this bear market lasts.
CRYPTIK-ONE: Thanks for your time estimate. . . I agree with you on the emotional decision making also. The Fear/Greed Index is your friend. Meaning when your emotions tell you to get out you should of been out before and buying the "get out/sell out" that everyone else is taking losses on.
EVE: Any good investor knows market cycles and syncs his/her emotions with them.
CRYPTIK-ONE: I like that. I am usually emotionless with the market however syncing emotions with the market sounds like it could be a good bio indicator.
EVE: Yes! And remember, we are all in this crypto game together.
CRYPTIK-ONE: Yep. Thanks Eve. Anything to say to our 419 followers on @TradingView before we go?
EVE: Enjoy crypto and always be ready to make a plan B because sh*t happens.
CRYPTIK-ONE: Peace Out Girl Scout.
EVE: A KISS to all the followers! Too bad I am too short. Sometimes you have to put Eve in the Sidelines, LOL. Thanks again @CRYPTIK1 & trade carefully, my friends! Be sure to follow us on TradingView!
SP500 can go lower than 3200This is just an idea, no real prediction or forecast or investment advice, anyway, it looks the bear market can drag the SP500 to 3212.
NVDA, now has a fresh low as was predicted.! whats next?I warned about a very strong bull trap in NVDA on 28th July and now the stock has a fresh low. !
As discussed in previous idea , inverted flats in bear market are among the most difficult patterns to recognize. Lets review published idea first :
Now, What is next?
As shown on the chart , a zigzag correction is most likely forming in NVDA and the stock is currently in wave 5 of A of an ABC form of correction.
Two suggested supports are shown on the chart by green lines. These lines coincide with 0.382 and 0.618 Fibo projection of wave 1-3 from top of wave 4 which are typical for end of wave 5. Suggested wave A which is (most probably) just the first large leg of correction will probably end at these supports. This means that stock may show a considerable counter trend correction (wave B) and a resumption of down trend (Wave C ) after that. It may take 12 to 18 months from now for completion of large degree ABC zigzag form of correction.
Picture inserted in the chart was captured from a very useful book written by Frost and Prechter titled : "Elliott wave principle key to market behavior " chapter 1, figures 1.22 and 1.23. As we can see current chart beautifully resembles text book example.
Please note this analysis may need update in future since corrective waves may take some complicated forms . Should it need any update, we can do it later.
I hope this analysis to be useful and wish you all the best.
Up and Down For 3 more weeksThis chart lays out the estimated Minor waves in Intermediate 5 as mentioned in my weekend analysis. These estimates place:
The bottom of Minor 1 around 3601.23 today for a total wave 1 loss around 205.68;
The top of Minor 2 around 3740.37 on October 12th for a gain around 139.77;
The bottom of Minor 3 around 3474.12 on October 18th for a loss around 266.25;
The top of Minor 4 around 3555.33 on October 20th for a gain around 81.21;
The final bottom for Minor 5, Intermediate 5, Primary 5, and Cycle A around 3340.36 on October 26th for a loss around 214.97.
These estimates nearly align with all levels from the other day but there is some give in take in them. We will see how close these levels as well as everything mentioned in the weekend analysis occur.
TARGETS [Worst Case] Measured Moves / FIBs / W&D OBs - DailyUsing Price Action fundamentals only, see targets for possible 'Worst Case' scenarios for 2022 Bear Market using 'Measured Moves / FIBs / W&D OBs'.
Chart shown in Weekly Time Frame - zoom out and in to look about.
TARGETS [Worst Case] Measured Moves / FIBs / W&D OBs - WeeklyUsing Price Action fundamentals only, see targets for possible 'Worst Case' scenarios for 2022 Bear Market using 'Measured Moves / FIBs / W&D OBs'.
Chart shown in Weekly Time Frame - zoom in to look about.
